COVID rants /shares 2.0 thread

[Coffee Pancake]

1 hour ago, Ceka Cianci said:

They are saying that exercise can help a lot when infected.. Like if you were exercising beforehand it can reduce the chances of being hospitalized or even death..

 

It's the usual loose statistical correlation with a spin.

People who tend to exercise tend to have better outcomes with the virus.

Is this because they exercise more or because they are predisposed to be more physically active and exercise provides that outlet. Does forcing someone not predisposed to moderately intense physical exercise increase their health or improve their chances with the virus? Does it change their chance of death from other causes? How are these exercising covid survivors found, are they all members of a Gym? Do they have other 'healthy lifestyle' traits in common? Does the root / genetic cause of those predisposed to mindlessly exercise have other correlating factors? What percentage of them intentionally ingest kale? Is that significant enough to claim kale helps combat the virus?

These and other questions are often asked in the form of an online questionnaire .. and no one ever lies on those.

The media LOVE to run with student studies (of tiny sample sizes) that don't and won't ever get repeated. All we're told is the headline SCIENCE DISCOVERY that red wine makes us live longer, chocolate is healthy, gum health is linked to dementia , red heads are thicker skinned, mindfulness makes you selfish, comfort food is not a real thing, fish oils are / aren't good for your heart .. and so on.

The devil is always in the detail, how, when, where, who, how many, selection factors, bias, who paid for the study, repeatability and so on. 

(who paid for the study is a really huge factor; there is an entire industry based around finding ways to use sciencey sounding procedure to indirectly sell more _______. In this case I wouldn't be entirely surprised if this study was done or paid for by some kind of insurance funded healthcare / yoga mat consortium / eat more kale industry alliance / business business)

 

--

And it looks like we have a winner .. There is a study by an American health care provider (Kaiser Permanente) published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, A peer reviewed sciencerly bi weekly that has been accused of kissing the boot of the industry that feeds it. Like that time the brain worms demanded they go pro-butter.

48,440 adults with a COVID-19 diagnosis were asked (literally a survey/poll) about exercise (important part ->) in line with how Kaiser Permanente healthcare services craft an "Exercise Vital Sign measurement" for their patients (in use since 2009).

Turns out the headline should have been "sedentary lifestyle also bad for covid outcomes", but that's not at all that eye catching, neither is observed statistical variance (healthy people are more healthy and all that). But hey, the marketing folk at Kaiser Permanente got a study that directly supports one of their service goals.

[Ceka Cianci]

It could be a scam or it may be something.. Last year around this time it was being looked into, but they hadn't looked at anyone infected with Covid at the time yet..

https://www.everydayhealth.com/coronavirus/research-provides-hints-about-why-exercise-may-help-protect-against-covid-19-complications/

 

Like I said, i just thought it was interesting..

I can't see any harm in someone taking a 30 minute walk a day if they can or how anyone else would profit from that..

[Coffee Pancake]

2 minutes ago, Ceka Cianci said:

I can't see any harm in someone taking a 30 minute walk a day if they can or how anyone else would profit from that..

Yes, but you didn't need a "study" to tell you that.

It's not a scam, it's an opportunistic marketing circle jerk off the back of a public health crisis masquerading as science & regurgitated by the media for a feel good spin. This is why trust in science and media are on the decline.

[Ceka Cianci]

5 minutes ago, Coffee Pancake said:

Yes, but you didn't need a "study" to tell you that.

It's not a scam, it's an opportunistic marketing circle jerk off the back of a public health crisis masquerading as science & regurgitated by the media for a feel good spin. This is why trust in science and media are on the decline.

I don't feel trust in science is on the decline.. I see more of it in more places than when I was younger and more interest in it..

Now media, yea, but that's on them too..

[Qie Niangao]

This study has gotten a lot of criticism in the past day, or at least the press release has, but if we're careful about not jumping to conclusions and keep in mind it's still only a pre-print, the study itself is very interesting.

First, though, a big caveat: there's no way to conclude from this that risk of the rare blood clot side-effect of the AstraZeneca vaccine is comparable to that of Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA-based vaccines because the data for those groups come from different sources. (In fact, it's going to be difficult to ever make such a comparison because there aren't many countries if any where both types of vaccines are delivered to comparable cohorts.)

What's super interesting, though, is the finding that COVID-19 itself dramatically raises the risk of these rare blood clots for unvaccinated people. Current data are incomplete about the share of these blood clots that are accompanied by anti-platelet factor 4 antibodies, signature of the AstraZeneca and J&J side-effects, but still something seems to be causing these otherwise very rare CVT clots to happen way more frequently in unvaccinated COVID-19 patients than in the baseline population.

[Madelaine McMasters]

4 minutes ago, Qie Niangao said:

something seems to be causing these otherwise very rare CVT clots to happen way more frequently in unvaccinated COVID-19 patients than in the baseline population.

I first heard of the Covid-clot connection early last summer...

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/56/1/2001608

I made sure I had aspirin in my pantry after reading that.

[Qie Niangao]

59 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I first heard of the Covid-clot connection early last summer...

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/56/1/2001608

I made sure I had aspirin in my pantry after reading that.

Oh yeah, now that you mention it, I remember that too, as part of the overall cardiovascular disaster that is COVID.

Lacking any medical background, I have no idea whether it's correct, but I somehow have the idea that these rare CVT events—at least the vaccine-related "platelet factor 4" ones—are different from typical blood clots. I read something somewhere that early-on there were more than the usual bad outcomes because docs were trying to treat the CVTs with heparin, apparently standard for clots, but compounding the problem in these cases.

[Arielle Popstar]

On 4/12/2021 at 11:36 AM, Madelaine McMasters said:

That said, you'd help your case by understanding the research you cite. Your misinterpretation of the mask study is a rookie error and makes you seem a questionable flag bearer for your own beliefs.

I simply reported the study's infected mask wearing numbers. That doesn't equate to misunderstanding it. I get the sense that you just don't care for the implications but on the other hand it does beg the question whether the mask failed the wearer or did the wearer fail the mask.

While I am at it, this study proves that influenza, flu and pneumonia's cannot be down because of mask wearing. Since the viruses and their transmission are similar to the Covid one, it does not make sense that mask wearers are only prone to Covid and somehow magically filter out the rest. I don't know why the numbers are down other than there simply isn't enough people infected with the flu to pass it on but from a practical point of view, it isn't because of masks.

 

 

[Madelaine McMasters]

1 minute ago, Arielle Popstar said:

I simply reported the study's infected mask wearing numbers. That doesn't equate to misunderstanding it. I get the sense that you just don't care for the implications but on the other hand it does beg the question whether the mask failed the wearer or did the wearer fail the mask.

While I am at it, this study proves that influenza, flu and pneumonia's cannot be down because of mask wearing. Since the viruses and their transmission are similar to the Covid one, it does not make sense that mask wearers are only prone to Covid and somehow magically filter out the rest. I don't know why the numbers are down other than there simply isn't enough people infected with the flu to pass it on but from a practical point of view, it isn't because of masks.

You cited that study as implication masks don't work. That's a massive misunderstanding. I explained your error. Now you're back in a display of willful ignorance.

Everybody in that study was sick. No asymptomatic individuals were involved. That makes it impossible to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of mask wearing or social distancing, other than to see how those behaviors correlate with what made those sick people sick.

Covid-19 is more contagious and produces more severe symptoms than influenza, so you'd expect it to predominate in the population of patients presenting at clinics with symptoms. Even so, only half of the sick tested positive for Covid-19. The other half were suffering symptoms from other causes, possibly influenza, pneumonia, allergies, anxiety, etc. The effect that mask wearing has on any other communicable disease depends on the nature of the disease.

There is a controversial theory that dominant viruses can shove others out of the contagion pool, explaining the precipitous drop in influenza infections. The problem with that theory is that countries that have minimal Covid cases have also experienced a precipitous drop in influenza.

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

it does not make sense that mask wearers are only prone to Covid and somehow magically filter out the rest.

Of course it makes no sense that mask wearers are only prone to Covid-19. The data clearly showed that wasn't the case. Only half the sick had Covid. Why did you feel the need to invent this boogeyman? Simply so you could knock it down? I'm still standing.

As I explained, you cannot draw any conclusions about mask or social distancing efficacy from a study of only the sick. To know if wearing masks or distancing prevent sickness, you also need to measure the well. There were zero well patients in the study.

Zero.

While we have no historical data for Covid, we have lots of it for influenza. Prior to this year, the American public has generally not worn masks, nor socially distanced during flu season. The records show that, over the last decade, we've had 20-60K deaths attributed to influenza each year. There was a dramatic decline in diagnosed influenza cases this season. What changed? Due to Covid-19 guidelines, many people wore masks and socially distanced. That significant change in behavior correlates with a significant decline in influenza, giving credence to theories of causation. So, we have fair reason to believe that masks and isolation saved lives this flu season. Because we have no historical record for "living with covid", we have no idea how many people would have succumbed to Covid-19 had nobody worn masks, nor distanced.

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

Since the viruses and their transmission are similar to the Covid one...

... it's reasonable to theorize that mitigations that work against one airborne virus might work against others.

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

I don't know why the numbers are down other than there simply isn't enough people infected with the flu to pass it on but from a practical point of view, it isn't because of masks.

Here's Japan's influenza case count over the last decade...

Here's the US for the same period...

The US has a population 2.6x that of Japan, but a typical influenza case rate 10-20x higher. Japan's advantage over the US goes way back, and their fastidious nature (masks and hand washing) is widely believed to be a significant factor in their superior influenza infection rates. If Covid-19 establishes a permanent foothold (via variants), a decade from now we'll have a historical record like those above for comparison. Absent a cultural shift in the US, I expect Japan will continue to outperform us.

Your contention that masks are ineffective is not supported by the evidence you've presented. That's why I've questioned your qualifications as the flag bearer for your own beliefs. The evidence I've presented suggests marks are effective, though they are certainly not the entire story.

I wish you'd brought me something challenging, Arielle. I see a lot of bad analysis everywhere I look, I don't need more of it.

[Love Zhaoying]

I spent yesterday recovering from the second Pfizer shot. Ouch, and feel much better today!

[Love Zhaoying]

5 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

willful ignorance

In a more advanced culture, do you think this would remain a "sin", become a "crime", or merely die out culturally? 

[Madelaine McMasters]

4 hours ago, Love Zhaoying said:

In a more advanced culture, do you think this would remain a "sin", become a "crime", or merely die out culturally? 

In religious contexts, willful ignorance is already a sin. It's tricky though, since religion often depends upon and promotes it.

In legal contexts, it's already a crime. We call it criminal negligence. The bar for conviction is both high and exceptionally narrow in scope. We'll never make everyday willful ignorance a crime because there'd be nobody left to prosecute us.

Over the long haul, willful ignorance has died out culturally. There are a few stragglers, but most Germans no longer deny the Holocaust. The willful ignorance of Holocaust denial is a crime in sixteen European countries and Israel.

Unfortunately, over the long haul, willful ignorance has also sprouted and flourished. We  are in the middle of an impressive growing season right now.

I'm ignorant of too much to have better answers for you, Love.

;-).

Edited April 17, 2021 by Madelaine McMasters

[Love Zhaoying]

29 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I'm ignorant of too much to have better answers for you, Love.

That's the best answer of all! And in your case, I know it's not willful!

 

[Crim Mip]

On 2/23/2021 at 9:06 AM, Adamburp Adamczyk said:

I had it.

 

Like the Flu.

 

I recovered.

 

Now i just spent my morning off with a doodah stuck in my arm donating blood plasma (ie donating antibodies).

 

My arm aches.

 

Still, I count my blessings my symptoms were just like the Flu.

So you've had the flu? As in sick as hell for 2-3 weeks with fever, chills, headache, diarhea and or vomiting? Then a week or two after to fully recover? That flu? Yeah, probably not.  I never want to be that sick again. For the record, the Flu normally kills 10's or even 100's of thousands every year normally. Nobody who's said it's 'only a flu' has ever had the actual flu.

[Qie Niangao]

Not sure why I'm so intrigued by this problem given that it affects at most a tiny number of people, but it feels as if it might end up revealing something of broader significance. Or maybe everything feels that way when enough brainpower is invested in it. Anyway, it's a well-written article describing the current state of this narrow but rapidly developing area of research.

[Chroma Starlight]

Quote

Biden promised a foreign policy centered on human rights, but is continuing Trump-era policies and practices
businessinsider.com, John Haltiwanger Apr 16, 2021, 1:33 PM

President Joe Biden promised that his foreign policy would mark a major departure from former President Donald Trump, pledging to put human rights and democracy at the center of his approach to global affairs. But on issues ranging from US relations with Gulf states to refugees, Biden is continuing many of Trump's most divisive and controversial policies and practices (...) The president's decision-making on this has seemingly been influenced by Republican criticism (...)

Joanne Lin, the National Director of Advocacy and Government Relations at Amnesty International, in a statement said (...) "Biden had the opportunity to fulfill his campaign pledge and to deliver on his promises (...) to place human rights at the center of U.S. foreign policy, and to restore U.S. global leadership. He squandered that opportunity today," Lin added. 

(full article) https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-promised-to-prioritize-human-rights-but-continues-trump-policies-2021-4

Test, Quarantine, Contain.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Chroma Starlight
Justice tarot, reversed: Unfairness, lack of accountability, dishonesty

[Adamburp Adamczyk]

10 hours ago, Crim Mip said:

So you've had the flu? As in sick as hell for 2-3 weeks with fever, chills, headache, diarhea and or vomiting? Then a week or two after to fully recover? That flu? Yeah, probably not.  I never want to be that sick again. For the record, the Flu normally kills 10's or even 100's of thousands every year normally. Nobody who's said it's 'only a flu' has ever had the actual flu.

I thought saying "like the flu" in a covid thread, and mentioning donating blood plasma with antibodies in a thread about Covid was a bit of a give away that I had Covid.  The symptoms I'd had were "like the flu".  Why did I count my blessings at that? Other have had it FAR worse than me, I had 10 days stuck at home with daytime TV

 

Also I had no long-lasting effects from it.  Just a shortness of breath that went within 10 days of me being able to start hiking and biking again.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Adamburp Adamczyk
wording.

[Sammy Huntsman]

Canada is in a third wave and Ontario is under another lockdown. I am not a social person, but this is driving me insane.

[Arduenn Schwartzman]

My son is staying home from school. Someone in his class tested positive today.

I'm going to lock myself up in the bathroom for the coming weeks.

 

[Silent Mistwalker]

5 hours ago, Arduenn Schwartzman said:

My son is staying home from school. Someone in his class tested positive today.

I'm going to lock myself up in the bathroom for the coming weeks.

 

Phineas Phreak

Freewheelin Frank Freek

Fat Freddy Freekowtski 

But where is Fat Freddy's cat? 😮

[Arduenn Schwartzman]

3 hours ago, Silent Mistwalker said:

Fat Freddy's cat?

Annihilating General Cockroach' 5th refrigerator battalion. But don't worry. There's plenty more where those came from.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Arduenn Schwartzman

[Silent Mistwalker]

2 hours ago, Arduenn Schwartzman said:

Annihilating General Cockroach' 5th refrigerator battalion. But don't worry. There's plenty more where those came from.

Yay! Another Fat Freddy's cat fan! 😊

[Coffee Pancake]

Team Moderna.

My arm hurts.

[Akane Nacht]

22 minutes ago, Coffee Pancake said:

Team Moderna.

My arm hurts.

My spouse and I got our first jab last Friday. Ouch arm lasted about 2 days, and had little bit of joint pain and low fever that lasted less than a day. We're in our 50s so probably thats a middling immune response. All excited to see what second dose does 😅

[LittleMe Jewell]

2 hours ago, Akane Nacht said:

My spouse and I got our first jab last Friday. Ouch arm lasted about 2 days, and had little bit of joint pain and low fever that lasted less than a day. We're in our 50s so probably thats a middling immune response. All excited to see what second dose does 😅

Ditto on the 2-day arm pain - that is the only issue I had.

I've read numerous articles that say the second dose - of either vaccine - is far worse for reactions.