Land Prices Tanking?

[Razzy Riggles]

I'm looking around mainland at the moment - and yes there are the usual abandoned plots - but I see more and more coastal waterways land at 10L or less p/sqm. I remember see this type of land being 20, 30 heck 50 L p/sqm a year ago. Am I imagining this? If not, what is causing prices to sink?

Edited November 21, 2019 by Razzy Riggles
typos

[Alwin Alcott]

why would you pay more as 1L$ for normal mainland, no difference water or land or both, when LL sells abandoned land for that price to you?... also such locations...


Of course this doesn't apply to the high demand double prim and certain special regions.

[Razzy Riggles]

 

3 hours ago, Razzy Riggles said:

but I see more and more coastal waterways land at 10L or less p/sqm.

 

I agree Alwin - I was focusing more on the lands at mainland edges - (not sim edge with a view of unusable water) but real land on real  LL water on coastal waterways with real sailing and flying. Those prices I am seeing a significant drop in prices.

[Bitsy Buccaneer]

Some will have gone to the new Linden Homes. Houses near the shore and houseboats are both very popular there and many houseboats have a sailing boat moored outside. Those areas were made to be accessible to the mainland waterways.

[Sarahbuxso]

Yah it's happening due to the premium lots, seems no one wants mainland now,  not sure how LL will keep mainland alive if it seems like people are not buying.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Sarahbuxso

[Therese Tammas]

Well, actually, in my view, there is more appreciation about mainland...thanks to Bellisseria people realize the value of Mainland and there is a renewed interest in making a  beautiful community on Mainland. 

Prices are not dropping, in my view. It is still too expensive for the average buyer. You will still see majority of parcels on the map, to be selling for upwards of $70 USD a parcel, and that's for 512 sq meters and 1024s. 

 

 

[Therese Tammas]

and that's for any area on the map. 

[Alwin Alcott]

52 minutes ago, Therese Tammas said:

 You will still see majority of parcels on the map, to be selling for upwards of $70 USD a parcel, and that's for 512 sq meters and 1024s.

and that are the parcels that will be still for sale in about a year ... the smart buyer skips for sale parcels but looks for interesting abandoned parts.

[Pussycat Catnap]

1 hour ago, Therese Tammas said:

Well, actually, in my view, there is more appreciation about mainland...

Wishing it so doesn't make it so...

[Prokofy Neva]

9 hours ago, Razzy Riggles said:

I'm looking around mainland at the moment - and yes there are the usual abandoned plots - but I see more and more coastal waterways land at 10L or less p/sqm. I remember see this type of land being 20, 30 heck 50 L p/sqm a year ago. Am I imagining this? If not, what is causing prices to sink?

I've been studying this quite a bit and I'm not sure what you are saying is true.

No one has a computerized ability to fetch all the prices of land on the Mainland and analyze them over time. That is, perhaps Tyche does but she's never put out any report like that.

The reality is, there is a small group of land barons who bought up the best coastal properties and either rent them out at a high price or re-sell them at astronomical prices.  And they themselves ensure that those prices stay very high, disregarding even market signals that might tell them otherwise.

It's not a market in any real sense, but it's more like a black market, when a good is artificially made scarce due to government control of resources or lack of a free press to understand prices and economic information.

So what can break such a cartel? Only when the government dilutes the supply, as Linden does by creating Linden Homes with house boats. But the Linden house boats aren't really sailing areas. That is, they are and they aren't. Some people in them just want the water ambience and have parties or sit on their deck. Others might actually sail from them, but they face in the other direction the problem the legacy mainland faces with no Linden void sims, so they have to hug the coast and it gets laggy and crowded.

I think you also have to ask if a $10/m parcel is actually sailable. So often they aren't. They are land-locked, or near other parcels with aggressive orbs, or near ugly builds. So you really have to inspect them and see if you can really sail from them. There are some even for $2/m but they are totally landlocked, i.e. the water is owned by other tenants who can block it at will with "no access" and "group-only" or bans.

Coasts on the original continents like Sansara have never been as expensive as the Nautilus etc ones around Blake. There is sort of a hype and a mystique around Blake which comes from tony yacht clubs making it seem like high society and keeping out the riff-raff. Also, I think the original Mainland has the problems of more ugly builds than the later continents.

A land baron can afford to leave a parcel out at a high price unsold for months and months and MONTHS. Years, even. Because he can sell a few, and still make a profit. Or because what he paid will be more than covered with the sale price, which will also cover his months of tier, likely at a group discount and bulk discount.

Nothing can break high prices except Linden supply; if people decide they will cease renting or buying, they never get enough company, they are always divided, sometimes artificially so. 

 

Edited November 21, 2019 by Prokofy Neva

[Prokofy Neva]

5 hours ago, Therese Tammas said:

Well, actually, in my view, there is more appreciation about mainland...thanks to Bellisseria people realize the value of Mainland and there is a renewed interest in making a  beautiful community on Mainland. 

Prices are not dropping, in my view. It is still too expensive for the average buyer. You will still see majority of parcels on the map, to be selling for upwards of $70 USD a parcel, and that's for 512 sq meters and 1024s. 

 

 

Well, you mean coastal properties. Inland, you find prices as low as half a Linden or even .02/Linden as people want to unload the bleakest, flattest, landlocked parcels.

[ArgontheDevil Ormega]

I'm seeing a lot of building on areas that used to be empty so the idea that mainland is suffering a Bellissaria effect is probably utter nonsense.  It is probably just people not wanting to pay the prices for waterfront land and the sellers not wanting to be stuck paying tier so they are lowering their prices.

[Aethelwine]

It is hard to say just from looking around the map. I got my zindra land on a waterway a few years ago now and it wasn't much more than 10L$ a prim, there are and have always been bargains around. When I saw Grumphmunch go up for sail for half a million (at least, it was enough to make me wonder if it would sell) a month or so ago, I wondered how quickly it would sell a few weeks later it had been bought up.

Without seeing proper analytics, I don't think it is really possible to say what is going on with mainland pricing.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Aethelwine

[JJ Hoobinoo]

Analytics would be great but LL doesnt provide them.  I think that leaves the next best thing which is ones "gut" or observation and talking to others. 

I have to say I see prices falling. I dont want it to sound like a commercial -just want to illustrate for those who may question the comment -  but it is a fact that I have for sale  for 2 months  now a 2048 @ 10L p/sqm on coastal waterway yes partial LL beach, no ugly builds around it, even has abandoned land behind it to add to the size of the parcel, and yes true sailable water to 16+ sims - heck even more if you want to circle around mainland islands....and no takers Similar properties around it are listed at 13/14 sqm . @Prokofy Neva I wont give the SLURL here but can IM you the proof. I realize one parcel or even several in the same area arent' absolute proof but I can say these were selling (not just offered) for 20L + a year ago.

I dont think I need analytics to suggest a trend to me as to whats going on.

19 hours ago, Bitsy Buccaneer said:

new Linden Homes. Houses near the shore and houseboats are both very popular there and many houseboats have a sailing boat moored outside. Those areas were made to be accessible to the mainland waterways.

.My observation has been - going back to this earlier comment - is that the demand s lower for any coastal waterways and these new LL homes and their protected from ugly rules apply downward pressure  (by lowering demand) to  mainland prices. It certainly didnt help raise the prices of mainland

My experience tells me - If this was rl - I would call it a buyers market.

[Therese Tammas]

Eh I love coastal regions. And mostly Belli sailing is all rivers, in the end you land in a Linden ocean once you get out of Belli. I love the open water.

Too tired and crabby from IRL to properly respond, but this has been an interesting read and debate! 

[animats]

I just drove around one of my favorite drives, around Circuit de Corse. Notes:

• Biker Parties Lounge in Toothsome is gone. That was a nice teleport destination for rezzing and riding and hanging out afterward.
• Lots of real estate for sale. Many new FOR SALE signs. Many new rental boxes, some in the red "Eviction Notice" state.
• More ad signs on tiny parcels.
• New trend: security orb, warning sign about security orb, and rental box in the green "Available" state all on the same property. If you approach the rental box the security orb threatens you. Sign says to contact the real estate agent. Saw several of those.

Not sure if prices are dropping, but there's more unoccupied property.

[Chic Aeon]

On 11/21/2019 at 9:24 AM, Therese Tammas said:

Well, actually, in my view, there is more appreciation about mainland...thanks to Bellisseria people realize the value of Mainland and there is a renewed interest in making a  beautiful community on Mainland. 

Prices are not dropping, in my view. It is still too expensive for the average buyer. You will still see majority of parcels on the map, to be selling for upwards of $70 USD a parcel, and that's for 512 sq meters and 1024s. 

 

 

There is a TREMENDOUS difference between some exorbitant asking prices and what people actually SELL for.  For the first time in twelve years I lost money on selling a lot. Normally I make a fair amount on a LOT  sale but  that has changed recently.     

 

And I don't consider Bellisseria  "mainland". It has many rules, all the same size plots and plenty of EXTRAS (including houses that don't count in the land impact. So NOT mainland :D. 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Chic Aeon

[Sammi Boa]

I'd love to buy a full sim but as I want one on coast they are hard to find and then after paying a crazy price, you have to pay a tier for the sim you buy.  So looking to rent a full sim on coast and prices do not seem any less than they were earlier this year. My partner and I are keen on flying but if you buy/rent somewhere near coast say separated by a half or full sim. Eventually some buys that sim and puts up sky domes up to the height limit and then security systems make it impossible to fly out to coast. Been on here over 12 years and way things seem to run, the way prices seem way over the top it makes enjoying SL harder. 

 

Sorry guys just a dippy minded person going on and on so pay no attention and warm regards to all. 

 

[iamyourneighbour]

On 11/21/2019 at 11:19 PM, Razzy Riggles said:

I'm looking around mainland at the moment - and yes there are the usual abandoned plots - but I see more and more coastal waterways land at 10L or less p/sqm. I remember see this type of land being 20, 30 heck 50 L p/sqm a year ago. Am I imagining this? If not, what is causing prices to sink?

Answer is linden homes. It's cheaper (main thing) and community managed meaning you will not see a sky ramp next to your door.

And that = beach land baron downsizing = owners move away, personally I don't mind, it beats a land craze. 

[Ingrid Ingersoll]

I noticed this too. Ive always loved the mainland and look forward to having more choice of affordable plots. But it's not great for people who have seriously invested in lots of mainland obviously.

[Chic Aeon]

I haven't actually read this thread but YES is my comment.

 

Some anecdotal info:

 

I recently sold a 4096 which I bought very cheaply at about 1.3 per meter a bit over a year and a half ago. It is a good lot. Nothing special but no "issues". 

 

I tried to sell it for 1 per meter with no takers. In a few weeks I lowered the price to 3000 and it sold but not for two weeks. The purchaser abandoned that land in less than three weeks (oh my). 

 

Another tiny lot from the land group was purchased for about 1,300 -- again a year and a half ago and sold NOT QUICKLY for 800. A "flipper" apparently bought it hoping to make some money. A month later it is now for sale again at 800 LOL. Oh well. 

 

I have a long history of making profits on mainland. I only  lost money on one other lot (when an airport moved in RIGHT NEXT DOOR). This is the worst I have seen mainland prices and sales in twelve years.   

 

[Chic Aeon]

And yes, Belli has made a huge land impact on mainland and with THOUSANDS of more plots available "very soon" TM it is going to get worse. Since I am going back to basic in the Spring, I won't be buying any more mainland so not a big deal for me. But it is sad for sure as anyone who is OLD understands that "mainland" is part of SL's history. 

[Qie Niangao]

The prices are back down to about where they were before the premium "Bonus" tier doubled to 1024 and other tier prices dropped. Back before those changes, it was pretty grim though: it's not just that the parcel prices were low (which... who cares, really?) but also the amount of abandoned land was incredible. After those tier changes but before Belliseria, there was a big up-tick in parcel prices and large amounts of abandoned land filled up. Now, after there's been a lot of Belliseria for quite a while, the prices are again low but I still don't see nearly the level of abandonment that there was way back before the tier change.

We're getting close to year end, so Tyche Shepherd's Mainland Census should be out in another month or so. The last one was in that interval between the tier changes and Belliseria and reflected the drop in abandoned land. Could be especially interesting reading again this time.

[Hunny Bunny]

As long as people trim the crust that is the coast and abandon the interior of the mainland things will never change. I don't know many people that would want to pay the same price (in tier) for a crappy landlocked parcel as someone pays for a coastal one. If there was only some way for the Lab to adjust the tier based on the value of the property so, those with more expensive parcels pay a higher rate since they are obviously in demand and worth paying extra for and those taking the scraps get a lowered rate making them more attractive to buyers. That is one of the main reasons I moved to Bellisseria where I could have a piece of the pie on the water without paying through the nose for it. I mean when you get into the hundreds of thousands of L$ you're in the $300-$400USD range for a little 1024 parcel and that's not only unrealistic but ludicrous to most people to spend that kind of money on virtual land when they can rent it for about what it would cost in tier.

[Pussycat Catnap]

11 hours ago, Chic Aeon said:

And yes, Belli has made a huge land impact on mainland and with THOUSANDS of more plots available "very soon" TM it is going to get worse. Since I am going back to basic in the Spring, I won't be buying any more mainland so not a big deal for me. But it is sad for sure as anyone who is OLD understands that "mainland" is part of SL's history. 

Sad... but only because Linden Lab refuses to add a covenant to mainland.

The value of mainland would dramatically increase if it had a covenant that just got rid of a few basic issues:

1. Jerk builds - we all know it when we see it, a build designed to harass the neighbors or make their life difficult.
2. Old 'might as well be abandoned' stuff. Plots that have things rezzed in mid-air that have been there since 1973... or so it feels... Owned by people with 'lifetime' accounts, who the lab doesn't even know if they're actually even still alive...
3. Problem builds - builds that create excessive lag for those around them, that restrict movement, or create technical issues.
4. Builds that actually violate the existing rules... from hardcore porn on G land, or on an M-plot adjacent to a G-sim, to casinos, to covering protected routes, to other violations. Lack of enforcement is an issue.

There was/is another thread about 'what would you want in a mainland covenant'. If you look at it... among the disagreements are some common themes...

Bellisseria is where people are going to precisely because it has rules that keep the peace.

Mainland is like all those coffee-shop philosophers of the 1800s... Communism, Rousseauian, and Free Market Capitalism ideas sounded good over some cigars and coffee in a cafe in Paris a century and some odd years ago... but they gave us Stalin's purges, Pol Pot's Cambodia, and world wide suffering through poverty / inequality on the scale of nations...

Anarchy only looks good when you're high on something at Burning Man and it's still 1999... after that... it just becomes a lot of trash, sexual assaults, and idiots getting nowhere thinking they are 'discovering something'...

As Bellisseria shows... it doesn't even take a lot of rules... it just takes a light hand rightly pointed.

Until they get the guts to put some rules in place... mainland is a wasteland of the leftover trash and human waste of a Burning Man with no cleanup crew...

 

The prices on that are rightly tanking.

 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Pussycat Catnap