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Development of the second life....how do you imagine this game in 10 years?


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Would think in 10 years VR is so well developed and affordable, there will be virtual reality worlds to be in. SL might still be kept online as a niche, with probably still people on it using the system avie...

There might be an actual SL2, but my guess is it will be a new company with a new pioneering idea and platform.

 

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  • Average SL user age: about 8-10 years higher than today.
  • Appearance: About the same as today only with a toned down overall color pallette.
  • Number of actual users: 50-75% of today's numbers.
  • Concurrency and "active users" count: Slightly lower than today but not much (most of the drop in actual user numbers will be compensated for by more bots and alts).
  • Grid size: 15,000-20,000 sims, about half LL owned, the rest private.
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I don't think it will be gone but I do think it'll be like those classic (somehow) still online MMORPGs that get about 1% new users and the rest of its player base consists of old hats who hats who hate each other's guts. So basically like it is now only worse. 

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Obsolete, but there will still be a tiny circle of active users. It'll be like coming across an ancient, abandoned shell of a car with no windows or tyres and every door smashed in, but the radio is still playing.

Oh, and the Goreans will still be here. I'll give them this, they are absolutely un-fecking-killable. They're the cockroaches of RP, outliving everything the planet throws at them for billions of years yet never evolving.

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3 hours ago, ChinRey said:
  • Average SL user age: about 8-10 years higher than today.
  • Appearance: About the same as today only with a toned down overall color pallette.
  • Number of actual users: 50-75% of today's numbers.
  • Concurrency and "active users" count: Slightly lower than today but not much (most of the drop in actual user numbers will be compensated for by more bots and alts).
  • Grid size: 15,000-20,000 sims, about half LL owned, the rest private.

Sounds quite reasonable based on the slow decline trend, which is scary and why we should keep promoting SL and advocate improvements and innovations to LL! 

Ideally, either some marketing or word-of-mouth initiative breakthrough happen and we can get even more people who would be into SL to know about SL, or the technology catching up that allows VR to be used on SL without it being too laggy and it would naturally encourage more VR development for SL and brings more people that way. 

Edited by lucagrabacr
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I think SL will not "wither and die", nor will it be bought off by Facebook or Google. I rather think that in 10 years, SL will have about the number of active residents as it has now (or a little bit more), with about the same number of active regions as now (I am optimistic in that regard: I rather see SL stagnant or growing a little than further declining).

But no matter if SL will eventually grow a little or decline further, I think it will have more innovations, more shiny things, and better functionality than now - for example:

  • flexi-mesh hair and clothes, so that hair (and clothes) actually move again like before the introduction of Mesh;
  • weather that can be set and edited by the sim owner/admin;
  • more and better Animesh NPCs for Roleplay regions,
  • walls that keep light where it is (so that, for example, the sun doesn't shine through the walls),
  • water (and weather) that doesn't go through walls or ship hulls;
  • caves you can build yourselves using land edit tools, without having to rez some mesh building;
  • more Pathfinding usage, more (and more modern) public railway trains, street vehicles, and airborne stuff,
  • better sim crossings, bigger regions and/or more LI per region,
  • even more realistic avatars than now, etc.

With more Community Gateways, a new Mentor programme, and - something I hope will be implemented much earlier: a new and improved Inworld-Building Tool.

I really do think that in 10 years, SL will be a bit more vibrant than now, rather growing than declining - but still a niche product.

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While I don't think Second Life will last for ever and ever, I do think it will still be around in 10 years.  I think it will carry on as it has up to now, with gradual improvements and new features, which, together with improvements in computers, will make it better than it is today.  I agree that the average age of users will go up as fewer new people join but I think it will still have a healthy level of use.  

A lot depends on whether a better direct competitor comes along and whether LL's own Sansar and Hi Fidelity (in which LL is a partner) attract people away.

Edited by Conifer Dada
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Imagine if the same question had been asked 10 years ago. How disappointed we'd now be seeing how little of what was dreamed and wished for never surfaced.

Another 10 years time .. Continued assumption that everyone is within 10ms ping of the LL servers, all running state of the art devices and minimum 10gbps optic fibre connections .. However, still takes an age to rez a scene. Still endless questions about crashes, failures and general discontent. Necro'd threads 20 years old and my letter still hasn't come up on the Apple May Designs lucky letter boards.

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