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What does a post covid-19 world look like to you?


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9 hours ago, Gadget Portal said:

 

One thing I noticed that got overlooked... It's easy to point at something like a grocery store cashier and make the "essential jobs" vs "essential workers" argument. It's an easy thing to automate. But what about those functions that aren't yet easy to automate, or simply aren't possible to automate?

For example, I work in the security industry. It's exploding right now. I've got a pretty good gig already, but every day more front line positions are opening. All those previously mentioned grocery stores are hiring security to make sure people actually use the self checkouts. Automated warehouses are adding security to make sure stuff doesn't get stolen out of them (by the public or the few employees that are there). And so on. These front line security people that are 100% essential workers are getting offered cheap masks and near minimum wage. It's pretty messed up.

Gadget, I’m a working “Essential Worker”.

We have many tasks that *could* be automated, but that would be either too costly or has been pushed back-against politically or by Organized Labor.

Every job we automate is “one less for a Taxpayer/Voter or dues-paying Union member”, so such things get complicated.

Personally, I work in a control room that looks like something from the Expanse - but I’m that “Human In The Loop” you keep hearing about 🙂

Edited by AmandaKeen
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On 4/10/2020 at 3:10 AM, Gadget Portal said:

I can't tell if you guys are naive or optimistic.

Humans are stupid, greedy, stubborn animals. Once we have a vaccine, very little will change. 

Huge parts of america will never stop using cash. If taxes go up for "healthcare", it'll just come with huge cost inflations in order to line someone's pocket, same as it always has.

And don't get me started on the economy. If anything, those non essential, greedy types will just find new and interesting ways to make sure they stay rich while everyone else suffers through the next one just like they're doing with this one. 

Gadget, I think cash is doomed. Locally in my little Southern US town its hard to find a business that WANTS cash right now. They want your credit/debit card and they want to sanitize it before scanning it 🙂

Where this will get sticky is the “I don’t trust banks” crowd, which is at least 50% economically-disadvantaged Urban in its makeup. There is a belief that The Man is watching your banking (who knows, he probably is?) and will use that information against you.

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21 hours ago, Mollymews said:

agree

i think what has been exposed by this crisis, is the fraility of just-in-time global supply chains when the points of manufacture are concentrated in fewer locations

Molly, we’ve struggled with that where I work. The real choke-point has been getting the truckers here on time and part of that has been checkpoint-stops. Some of those folks have really put themselves out-there to meet schedule to supply Essential Industry. I will never disrespect a Trucker again as long as I live.

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19 hours ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

I wouldn't doubt that this  extended shutting down of much of the economy, coupled with a likely coming boom of many of those "essential workers" opting to go on unemployment rather than going to work

Tolya, I agree about automation radically increasing and there being consequences related to that.

What I would gently add is that I only know of two people personally who have stopped working, rather than be a Mandatory Essential Worker.

Both of them did it out of fear and not for the $$$.

They were older people with underlying health conditions, but the company they work for was not giving them much option other than to “brave the Petri Dish” and come to work.

I’m lucky; my employer offered our workforce the chance to work Overtime (a mixed blessing for me) in order to allow our few High Risk team members to shift to a work-from-home job. That means fewer hands physically present to do on-site operations & longer hours for some of us, but also that we retained some older and very-skilled friends. None of us have left the organization and I’m forced to admit that I am just a little bit pleased to work for people who saw us as Assets and not as just Expendables.

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14 hours ago, Lindal Kidd said:

The exact circumstances were different, but the end result was the same.  Food in the lungs = infection = pneumonia.

Lindal, as the result of my long-ago brain-injury I had to do some extensive retraining on “how to safely swallow liquids and soft foods”.

I had to word that carefully so *some* of us could not easily have fun with it 🙂

I’m so sorry you lost your parents that way. For many who’ve had strokes or other brain-injuries, it’s something that has to be guarded against.

My physical therapist told me (to encourage me) that “unless you do better, that Diet Sunkist might be the end of you”. I quite hated her right then, but she did her job well.

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3 hours ago, Shansi Kenin said:

When i was little i would go into the dark forest alone to explore, watch butterflies in the open fields, often deer would come up to me allowing me to pet them, sometimes with me ending up falling asleep exhausted at the base of an old tree called the owl tree, several had lived in it for generations, often they would fly down and get walk near people as if they were trying to say something but we forgot how to hear them, when i woke up it was often an experience of feelings that by being there i was not dreaming in the forest but the forest was dreaming inside me.

i like this

in our increasingly tech-oriented world, logic and factual data driven outcomes are increasingly becoming more and more emphasized. That as important as this all is, I like to see reminders that we still have the ability to dream, to wonder, to imagine, to think abstractly. And that we still do this

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2 hours ago, AmandaKeen said:

Tolya, I agree about automation radically increasing and there being consequences related to that.

What I would gently add is that I only know of two people personally who have stopped working, rather than be a Mandatory Essential Worker.

Both of them did it out of fear and not for the $$$.

They were older people with underlying health conditions, but the company they work for was not giving them much option other than to “brave the Petri Dish” and come to work.

I’m lucky; my employer offered our workforce the chance to work Overtime (a mixed blessing for me) in order to allow our few High Risk team members to shift to a work-from-home job. That means fewer hands physically present to do on-site operations & longer hours for some of us, but also that we retained some older and very-skilled friends. None of us have left the organization and I’m forced to admit that I am just a little bit pleased to work for people who saw us as Assets and not as just Expendables.

There's no need to be gentle.  I don't break 😛

As I've pointed out, most people do not yet know the details of how the unemployment rules work, as they haven't even been fully implemented. Once it becomes more widely known, it seems unlikely someone would keep working for $12/hr when they could collect $15/hr on unemployment.  It wouldn't be a logical decision.  For some reason, I keep getting accused of demeaning people for saying many are likely take the logical course of action.  But, then, humans are often irrational.

Even before the new unemployment generosity came out, 6% of production employees at one of my manufacturing plants had taken some excuse (maybe just a pretext, maybe legitimate, one can't really know) to utilize our various leave options we added for the situation.  About half have indicated they will go on unemployment rather than return once their leaves run out.  A handful of my field personnel have done the same.  That number seems small, but we pay rather well (especially the field personnel) and have excellent benefits and large numbers of long-term employees.  My local grocery store was recently hiring at $10/hr for adults, and has lousy benefits from what I have heard.  You really think that, out of a sense or moral obligation or community duty, those folks won't take a 50% pay increase (minimum) to stay home and not potentially be exposed at work?

 

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6 hours ago, Shansi Kenin said:

Society has alot of unreal expectations on people to the point suicide is very common now, being away from people by being out in nature, away from most modern things can really make us aware how beautiful life is. my thinking is that by being in nature away from people one can connect to the earth & god on a personal level that modern society blinds us from.

When i was little i would go into the dark forest alone to explore, watch butterflies in the open fields, often deer would come up to me allowing me to pet them, sometimes with me ending up falling asleep exhausted at the base of an old tree called the owl tree, several had lived in it for generations, often they would fly down and get walk near people as if they were trying to say something but we forgot how to hear them, when i woke up it was often an experience of feelings that by being there i was not dreaming in the forest but the forest was dreaming inside me.

So beautifully put, and reminded me how I want to spend time in my garden, and of a poem by Mary Oliver you might like:

SLEEPING IN THE FOREST

 I thought the earth remembered me,
she took me back so tenderly,
arranging her dark skirts, her pockets
full of lichens and seeds.
I slept as never before, a stone on the river bed,
nothing between me and the white fire of the stars
but my thoughts, and they floated light as moths
among the branches of the perfect trees.
All night I heard the small kingdoms
breathing around me, the insects,
and the birds who do their work in the darkness.
All night I rose and fell, as if in water,
grappling with a luminous doom. By morning
I had vanished at least a dozen times
into something better.

 

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3 hours ago, Mollymews said:

in our increasingly tech-oriented world, logic and factual data driven outcomes are increasingly becoming more and more emphasized. That as important as this all is, I like to see reminders that we still have the ability to dream, to wonder, to imagine, to think abstractly. And that we still do this

We have become so separate from the earth, mistaking our logical musings for reality, that I think we're going to die out as a species.

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5 hours ago, AmandaKeen said:

OK, this might be a long one as I and my co-workers were discussing this very thing earlier.

I see CV19 as an event that will have similar impact to the Great Depression or the Second World War.

I’m a little older in my years than some, so I had people who lived through the Depression involved in my (Early) daily life and the Grandparents who raised me lived through WW2 (my Grandfather was a Pacific veteran).  My experience was that both events made indelible impressions on those who lived through them. Widespread food-scarcity, poverty and the lingering-but-intangible possibility of death *changed* people in ways that those who didn’t have those experiences found odd.

I grew up with some SERIOUS lectures (and a few paddlings) related to not wasting food or money. I was indoctrinated from the cradle in two almost contradictory ideas; (1) its expected that we will help each other out because we have had to do-without ourselves and (2) If you have something valuable (Food stocks, kerosene, spare tires) - don’t advertise it because if things get short, other people or the government may try to take it.

So I see these things changing;

Mass Gatherings will Radically Decrease

I fear that the movie theatre will become a thing of the past unless its structure and format change radically. They are too hard to clean (just remember what the sticky-floors looked like) and frankly, sitting in the dark people might feel free of peer pressure and engage in at-risk behavior.

Concert and sporting venues will have to re-imagine how the seat people, as “six-foot-clearance” ingrains itself into the public psyche. That means fewer people in the venue unless they do something creative with “booth” seating to at least isolate people into smaller separate groups (and figure some way to get them in and out without mass exposure).

I’m really seeing a large scale “fear of crowds” evolving that will change how we gather, consume entertainment, vote and do many things.

Population Movement Will Get Slower

I think globally, we’ll see a push towards more medical checks to cross borders out of a fear of disease. The jet aircraft is a transportation miracle, but it can also transport infected/undetected people into healthy populations rapidly. Maybe this will include “preflight isolation periods” and medical testing.

Unfortunately, I also see “reversals” many places where borders are currently open. CV19 travels on foot just as easily as aboard a jet and densely populated countries (especially those with aging populations) would want to prevent another mass sickness.

Also globally, I would almost expect to see an effort to reduce the human birth-rate so as to “distance” the global population and place less strain on available resources globing-forward if/when we have another outbreak.

Social Safety Nets Will Be Forced To Improve

The economic impact of CV19 and the idling of many businesses, coupled with the costs of medical care, will push towards structural changes in how we provide for our populations. We may see the advent of “Living Stipends” and a drive towards Universal Healthcare in places that might not have considered them a decade ago.

This would probably be coupled with education initiatives to prepare more workers for the technological workplace, as manual-labor type jobs that concentrate workers will be increasingly automated and throw low-educated workforces onto social safety nets. 

We will also struggle with how to pay for it all.

The Rise of the Machines

Even more so than today, Automation will drive a reduction in concentrations of manufacturing workers. This in turn will drive both education and population mitigation initiatives as we will have a burning need to make sure that the next generation is better able to “work from home/work from safety” and that mass, manual labor groupings become scarcer.

The Map May Change

We may see new political alliances form and old ones fall apart. Fearful of a neighbor’s perceived “lack of preparedness” we may also see national power-grabs take place under the ruse of “making the world safer”. This may take the form of a New Colonialism or something darker unless we can step back from the old grudges and power-politics of the past.

We Will Finally Get VR

Driven by the need to entertain, meet and work at a distance - Virtual Reality will become a Thing. Amanda Keen will look very much younger and hotter in VR.

We Will Remember Who Got Us Through This (Briefly)

Nurses, Doctors, Farmers, Essential Factory Workers and all Other Essentials will have about 5 years of recognition coming to them (unfortunately human gratitude last about 5 years). My hope is that everyone who has done the risky (and often menial) tasks that keep civilization afloat will be treated well by everyone else as we move forward. I also hope that we never again allow ourselves to Look Down on people engaged in Service occupations (waitresses, nursing-home staff, Caretakers, janitors, cooks, truckers, pharmacists, storekeepers, factory workers, medical professionals, law enforcement, military, etc) because they will be the ones called upon to serve and make sacrifices during the next Outbreak.

This Will Happen Again

I just hope that when it does, we’ve prepared ourselves. This is the wake-up call, not the final curtain.

Thanks for sharing this Amanda...as you shared a lot of things I never really processed.

Just taking myself and my best friend.  Things have changed.  When I get to see her again...it will be different.

The difference is this - I don't want to make anyone sick.  If I somehow become an asymptomatic carrier, I risk making others sick.  With colds/flu I stayed at home because with a cold or flu I didn't feel like doing anything for one and I also felt it not right to expose others either.  Many people do not even care if they expose others to a cold or flu.  They honestly do not.  If I die from the illness I will know I didn't die alone but mostly took others with me.  My whole relationship with my best friend is changed.  Will Skype visits be the future of what friendship looks like until a vaccine which one article said could be ten years away?   It is not known when a vaccine will be made.  

Onto the Global Situation:  Our California Governor, I read this morning, wants continued stay at home through May 15th.  Other countries in Europe as of this morning have differing views and are relaxing some social distancing now and are now going to allow swimming as well as other things (I can't remember at this time) which health organizations are saying is too risky but they will do it anyways.  Not having any global standards regarding a pandemic is making matters chaotic at best.  But, what's worse is, people aren't even listening.  And I wonder if they even care because I've known people with colds/flu not caring where they went nor whom they infected thinking more or less, it's just a part of life.  Well, it is but waiting at home with cold/flu until it's over is still the ideal; that Saturday matinee could have waited.  It could be also we've become a very complacent society about cold/flu because our bosses don't want to give us much sick leave.   My ex husband many times was told "come into work or be fired" when he was sick with cold/flu and they meant it, even saying "we can get people to work for less than you".      

Edited by FairreLilette
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8 hours ago, AmandaKeen said:

So I see these things changing;

Mass Gatherings will Radically Decrease

Population Movement Will Get Slower

Social Safety Nets Will Be Forced To Improve

The Rise of the Machines

The Map May Change

We Will Finally Get VR

Amanda Keen will look very much younger and hotter in VR. (Editor's Note:  LOL!  So will Miss Kidd!)

We Will Remember Who Got Us Through This (Briefly)

This Will Happen Again

 

Brilliantly reasoned, Amanda!  In general, I hope that you are right in your extrapolation.  Like airport security, some of those are vastly annoying, but we can put up with them.

I am afraid, though, that human stupidity and resistance to change may negate or lessen these outcomes.  I have just finished reading an opinion piece in which the author asks, "Why are we killing our economy for this?" To support his thesis, he cites statistics showing (correctly) that many more people die of other things (cancer, traffic accidents, heart disease, etc) than have died of coronavirus.  He concludes, "You can be free, and maybe die, or you can be safe...and die anyway.  We all die from something."  While his statistics are correct, they fail to take into account that 1) The number of coronavirus deaths are much smaller than they would otherwise have been, had not the world taken the measures it has; 2) we're still in the middle of this, the butcher's bill has not yet been added up; and 3) Even in very non-free countries (e.g., China) they took the same, or even more draconian, measures to save lives over preserving the economy.

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3 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

Our California Governor, I read this morning, wants continued stay at home through May 15th.

Of greater interest, Governor Newsome has been quoted as calling California a "nation-state".  The news media is opining that this was not a slip of the tongue on his part, and that he is seriously considering declaring independence from the federal government, and even seceding from the USA.

While I think that he has certainly had sufficient provocation to do so, and California is indeed larger, more populous and wealthy than many countries, I suspect that their anti-growth policies and high taxation make them unlikely to survive on their own.  Texas, on the other hand, could readily do so...and in fact they proved it in the past.

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1 minute ago, Lindal Kidd said:

Of greater interest, Governor Newsome has been quoted as calling California a "nation-state".  The news media is opining that this was not a slip of the tongue on his part, and that he is seriously considering declaring independence from the federal government, and even seceding from the USA.

While I think that he has certainly had sufficient provocation to do so, and California is indeed larger, more populous and wealthy than many countries, I suspect that their anti-growth policies and high taxation make them unlikely to survive on their own.  Texas, on the other hand, could readily do so...and in fact they proved it in the past.

There is a good chance Oregon and Washington will secede if California does. Would the three become part of Canada? Maybe.

It Texas goes, the rest of the south would join in and likely form their own country. 

What a mess.

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I think that certain changes will be accelerated that were bound to happen anyway. We may see a reduction in cash use, a few less holdouts in that regard. We will see more working from home, which was a thing before covid-19 that we now have an even bigger reason to utilize. We hopefully will see an increase in sanitary practice - the importance of hand washing just might be drilled into a few more heads. Virtual learning might just become a viable every day option for increasing education opportunities, or complimenting the current school system (and reducing our dependence on learning in schools somewhat). I believe we will see more hospital beds available due to the preparation in avoiding shortages in 2020.

It might not bring about drastic changes in the next 5 years, but don't be surprised if some of the ever-evolving changes over the very long term (beyond 20 years) have roots in the 2020 Covid-19 epidemic. Major, more sudden overhaul of life as we know it will depend on how often we have to go through this song and dance. While the economy can't stay in this shut down mode forever, we cant turn it off and on every few years either before something gives.

The biggest change will be how we deal with these epidemics. This was a rehearsal for the next one, which is inevitable.

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Given the nature of the Republic, Balkanization has always been a possibility.  The South tried it and failed, but given a Federal government that's weak and indecisive enough, it could happen again.

I think there could be a lot of fun to be had if it did.

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The US can't go totally cash-less until we deal with the issue of many poor people not having bank accounts and debit/credit cards - not to mention the occasional older person that doesn't trust banks in general.

I think that Social Distancing, to a degree (restaurants initially opening with fewer tables, etc...), will continue for a while after the various Stay at Home orders are lifted, but I don't see it staying long term.

I truly do not see the US wearing masks long term. Hell, we can't even get a majority of the people to wear them now.

Many people are very touchy feely, so long term the hugs will return.

It might take 12-18 months for everything, or the vast majority of things, to go back to pre-pandemic, but I totally expect it to happen.

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45 minutes ago, Lindal Kidd said:

I am afraid, though, that human stupidity and resistance to change may negate or lessen these outcomes.  I have just finished reading an opinion piece in which the author asks, "Why are we killing our economy for this?" To support his thesis, he cites statistics showing (correctly) that many more people die of other things (cancer, traffic accidents, heart disease, etc) than have died of coronavirus.  He concludes, "You can be free, and maybe die, or you can be safe...and die anyway.  We all die from something."  While his statistics are correct, they fail to take into account that 1) The number of coronavirus deaths are much smaller than they would otherwise have been, had not the world taken the measures it has; 2) we're still in the middle of this, the butcher's bill has not yet been added up; and 3) Even in very non-free countries (e.g., China) they took the same, or even more draconian, measures to save lives over preserving the economy.

Yes, that's all true.  And still this though:  we don't even know if coronovirus hit here at my residence in January.  Many of us are wondering but have had no tests yet.  My friend and I were just talking...a friend who was also sick in January like I was.  Her words echo mine exactly as she said to me:  "I have never been that sick in my entire life."  That's exactly what I said and would use those exact words to describe the cold/flu-like illness that hit here in January of 2020.  

I am beginning to believe we had this already and it's time to get all tested as other countries are doing.  At least the media is saying lots of countries everyone is being tested.  There is one test for Los Angeles County in downtown Los Angeles.  One.  One test center that I know of as of a few days ago.   Things do change rapidly though.  Some of our outpatient doctor's offices are completely closed at this time.  

I want a test to see if I have any antibodies.  If I don't, then okay let's continue with shelter in home or safer at home.  I know I'm safer at home but what if a lot of Los Angelians have had coronavirus already?  It was hell...but we lived and may have antibodies.   *hangs my head* I can't believe how long it is taking for tests.   

Edited by FairreLilette
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19 hours ago, Gadget Portal said:

 

One thing I noticed that got overlooked... It's easy to point at something like a grocery store cashier and make the "essential jobs" vs "essential workers" argument. It's an easy thing to automate. But what about those functions that aren't yet easy to automate, or simply aren't possible to automate?

For example, I work in the security industry. It's exploding right now. I've got a pretty good gig already, but every day more front line positions are opening. All those previously mentioned grocery stores are hiring security to make sure people actually use the self checkouts. Automated warehouses are adding security to make sure stuff doesn't get stolen out of them (by the public or the few employees that are there). And so on. These front line security people that are 100% essential workers are getting offered cheap masks and near minimum wage. It's pretty messed up.

 I worked asset protection as well for Walmart and in cash office, my job in CO was replaced by a big ass counting machine that breaks down more than it works..  There are to many people in the world and I reckon in 20 or so years we are going to be in a crisis with no jobs and billions of people. Crime will be rampant. 

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51 minutes ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

The US can't go totally cash-less until we deal with the issue of many poor people not having bank accounts and debit/credit cards - not to mention the occasional older person that doesn't trust banks in general.

And then there all the people who have trust issues due to the way they have been treated by companies and individuals. Like me.

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30 minutes ago, Tarina Sewell said:

 I worked asset protection as well for Walmart and in cash office, my job in CO was replaced by a big ass counting machine that breaks down more than it works..  There are to many people in the world and I reckon in 20 or so years we are going to be in a crisis with no jobs and billions of people. Crime will be rampant. 

You worked at the Cornelius OR store didn't you. xD

Their counting machine breaks down all the time. I used to work there.

Edited by Selene Gregoire
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2 hours ago, Lindal Kidd said:

Of greater interest, Governor Newsome has been quoted as calling California a "nation-state".  The news media is opining that this was not a slip of the tongue on his part, and that he is seriously considering declaring independence from the federal government, and even seceding from the USA.

While I think that he has certainly had sufficient provocation to do so, and California is indeed larger, more populous and wealthy than many countries, I suspect that their anti-growth policies and high taxation make them unlikely to survive on their own.  Texas, on the other hand, could readily do so...and in fact they proved it in the past.

Growth and taxation are changeable.  California has some thought to expand it's Casinos to include a Las Vegas like Casino Entertainment business as the need for low paying jobs in California is needed as well as there are a lot of entertainers here.  If California went to more Casinos, it would probably do away with a lot of taxes.

What's in the future regarding California.  I don't know.  Things are changing very rapidly.  But, Los Angeles (and others) are a metropolis, we need more than one test center per county.  And, as of my last reading, only three counties in Southern California have test centers.  One for L.A. County, one for Orange County and one for Kern County.  And, that is ridiculous for a metropolis.  The Governor, Mayors, whomever...need to get more tests here period and not pull words around like "nation-state" which sounds more like a threat than anything.  And, it's entirely irrelevant to what is needed right now - TESTS!!!!!!!!!

Sorry Storm, threads tend to go off topic a little.  Post COVID-19...I hope for more calm at least and a genuine smile from myself.  I miss smiling.  

As far as California being it's own country apart from the USA...it has pluses and minuses just like anything else.  The plus would be getting away from a puritanical American government most of all.  While Texas would be more of a puritanical country.  

Edited by FairreLilette
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3 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

I want a test to see if I have any antibodies.  If I don't, then okay let's continue with shelter in home or safer at home.  I know I'm safer at home but what if a lot of Los Angelians have had coronavirus already?  It was hell...but we lived and may have antibodies. 

An article today says that in a Chinese study, about 10% of recovered coronavirus cases had NO antibodies (!!)  It turned out these were the younger people.  People over 40 who recovered had antibodies.  This is not to say that the people with no antibodies were not immune, though.  There are other immune system components  that may (or may not) be giving them protection.

There's so much we are learning about this disease, and so much we still don't know.

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On 4/10/2020 at 1:44 PM, Lindal Kidd said:

In fact, you can contribute your spare computer time to the research, by signing up for an account at Folding@Home  This is a distributed computing project, a lot like SETI@Home.  Your donated computer time can also help find cures for COVID-19, Alzheimers, and others.

Tadaaa! Wait...what ^^? Ohh....

😳

😣

🤔

Origamiae09d0310a5804a28c3b68b735e0c89c.gif

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