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Tolya Ugajin

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  1. Just gonna slide this in here... U.N. STUDY: GLOBAL EXTREME POVERTY COULD DOUBLE BY NEXT YEAR DUE TO COVID LOCKDOWNS by Kevin Ryan The economic fallout of the coronavirus shutdowns could increase global poverty by more than half a billion people, or 8% of the total human population. This would be the first time that poverty has increased globally in thirty years, since 1990. That according to a study by the research wing of the U.N. The paper estimates that if household income falls by 20%, which it is projected to do for several months, the number of extremely poor people could increase by 420 million, wiping out a decade of gains in the fight against poverty. The reason is that the shutdowns are affecting much more than just COVID-19 transmission, and the impact extends much further than the myopic debate on U.S. cable news. The short-sightedness of work closures, both here and abroad, has brought families around the world to economic disaster. Put simply, there is no demand for labor anymore. The great expansion of market economies that reduced the number of people living in extreme poverty from 36% of the worldโ€™s population in 1990 to just 8% in 2018 has been reversed by COVID restrictions. And now the number of poor is rising. Very fast. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป $๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿต๐Ÿฌ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ท๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ, up to nearly 16%, by next year. And with that massive increase in poverty will come an equally large increase in non-COVID death rates. For example: A report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, for example, estimates that ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—”๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ, ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐˜€๐—ต๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป-๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—–๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—œ๐——-๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ. In one African country, Malawi, a cost-benefit analysis of continuing relatively moderate restrictions, which include closing schools, curbing travel, and restricting health outreach work, found that it could prevent thousands of deaths from COVID-19, but would lead to lower incomes and increased hunger, making people more vulnerable to tuberculosis and malaria. The total net effect of the shutdown would be a loss of 26,000 years of life and two years worth of GDP growth. Overall, the report estimates that the costs of the lockdown outweigh the benefits by 25 to 1. In India, itโ€™s not much better. When the country imposed its lockdown on March 24th, 140 million people lost their jobs, including tens of millions of migrant workers who suddenly had no income, no way to pay the rent, and no trains to take them home (those were also cancelled). Millions literally walked hundreds of miles back to their home villages. The countyโ€™s economy is now estimated to be shrinking at an annualized rate of 45%. Interruptions of diagnosis and treatment from just a three-month lockdown are projected to cause 500,000 excess deaths from tuberculosis in India. A team at Johns Hopkins University calculates that ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜€ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿด ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐—น๐—ฒ-๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜๐—ต ๐˜€๐˜†๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—บ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ต๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿฎ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿณ,๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜… ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ต๐˜€. In Nepal, men have seen the hours they can work for wages fall by about 75%. In Uzbekistan the number of households where at least one person works has dropped by over 40%. Over 80% of Kenyans and Senegalese reported a loss of income in early April. Colombiaโ€™s shutdown has sparked mass protests in working-class barrios. Worse still, the price of food has also gone up. Thatโ€™s because the shutdowns have restricted the labor needed to harvest crops. โ€ข In India vegetables that were harvested have been left to rot as they cannot be transported to market. โ€ข In Uganda the prices of most key foods have gone up by over 15% since mid-March and rations for refugees have been shut by 30%. โ€ข In the Philippines an โ€œextremeโ€ quarantine has seen squash, beans, and watermelons wither in the fields. In Bangladesh more than 70% of Rohingya refugees say they are now unable to buy food. In towns in Sierra Leone almost 60% of people said they had eaten fewer times than normal in the past week, according to the Yale Research Initiative. Fully 14% have gone a whole day without eating. In El Salvador, people have taken to hanging white flags from their windows to show that they have run out of food. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ช๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฑ ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—บ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฏ๐˜† ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ, and sees โ€œmultiple famines of biblical proportionsโ€ within a few months. Unlike the U.S., poor and even middle-income nations do not have the resources (or ability to take on trillions in new debt) to be able to give out payments to their citizens to offset restrictions on being able to work. Nor can out-of-work laborers turn to family members in wealthy countries to send some extra cash, because thereโ€™s no work in wealthy countries either. Remittances are projected to decrease at least 20%. Experts now say countries should not be imposing lockdowns, but instead should strive to protect the elderly while letting adults go to work. SOURCES: https://www.economist.com/โ€ฆ/covid-19-is-undoing-years-of-prโ€ฆ https://www.wider.unu.edu/โ€ฆ/Publications/โ€ฆ/PDF/wp2020-43.pdf https://news.yale.edu/โ€ฆ/measuring-effects-lockdowns-india-aโ€ฆ https://www.economist.com/โ€ฆ/indias-economy-has-suffered-eveโ€ฆ
  2. Right now, I'm listening to by fiancรฉ's family chat from 2 provinces via skype on our weekly drinking party. Better than any song.
  3. Atheists, Muslims, and born-again Christians have no sense of humour when it comes to religion. You should be fine - normal Christians don't get upset with Jesus on toast or Walking Dead characters named Jesus, so why should they be upset about a Jesus avatar. Besides, popular portrayals of Jesus look more or less like an average hipster today.
  4. Where you pulled that out of your behind is beyond me. You laid out a hypothetical of no lockdowns in the US at all but that would still mean a loss of imports and exports, along with a nonsensical tangent about retail. I used actual data to estimate economic impact of that scenario. Most jobs being effected by the lockdowns have nothing to do with import or export - they are service jobs primarily - restaurants, bars, travel, and retail being the hardest hit sectors. Under the scenario YOU laid out, those would all still be open. International travel is accounted for under imports and exports (which I assessed). There would likely be some dropoff restaurant and bar business, but would it be dramatic? Probably not - and, just as people have done anyway, take out and delivery would make up for a substantial amount of lost dine-in. I cited neither jobs as interchangeable nor incomes. I did indeed point out that PRODUCTS can be interchanged. Germany isn't sending us cars? No problem, US factories can indeed easily ramp up to accommodate the loss of those imports. France, Italy, Spain, etc. are no longer sending us wine? Oh dear, good thing China and Japan are no longer buying California wines, so there is more domestic wine available than before to counteract the loss of imports. Note, in my assessment, I didn't actually discount the economic effects due to such product substitution, I merely pointed out that they would happen. The bottom line was, with the domestic economy not locked down, the impact of lost exports and imports that we've actually experienced (using real live data you could google the same way I did) is some but not tragic job losses. Oh, and I should have pointed out, some of those lost imports and exports are certainly caused by domestic demand and production being shut down, so, guess what, there would be even less job loss. If you want to engage in facile arguments and misleading claims, by all means, find someone else to chat with.
  5. All you need is for Peter Jackson to make a trilogy out of the Silmarillion there, and tourism will be back in no time. Of course, if he bastardizes it the way he did The Hobbit, I just might feed him to sharks.
  6. Personally, I love baby goats. Preferably in this form:
  7. Ummmm, maybe this sort of thread isn't really for you after all? Counting doesn't seem to be your strong suit. By the way, you're "11" was also supposed to be 12, so this is 13.
  8. Rather vague and subjective, isn't it? What do you mean by "try"? The best what? How is it measured? It makes me think of one of my favorite movie lines of all time.
  9. Locking down an island 3,800 kilometers from the nearest continent is also a tad easier than locking down a country with around 14,000 kilometers of land borders that also happens to account for 1/7th of the total global economy. But the loss of overseas trade doubtless had hurt your economy even more than it has the US. As for our form of government, we've become so dysfunctional that I'm starting to think a return to good old fashioned monarchy would be preferably.
  10. Interesting idea. Let's run some numbers. Exports account for just over 12% of our economy. Thus far, the drop in exports (goods and services) is 9.2%, which works out to just over a 1% hit to the US economy as a whole lost due to exports falling off in your scenario. While surely some of that loss is due to reduced production for exports caused by shuttered businesses, let's assume the total hit to the economy is the full 1%. So, in your hypothetical situation, the US economy loses 1%, but, since the US economy was growing by over 2% previously, it still grows, albeit at a slower pace. Imports account for about 15% of our economy. Thus far, those are down 6% overall. Using the same math as above, this works out to a 0.9% hit to our economy. Now, assuming both these hits in full, the US economy is almost flatlining, but not shrinking. In addition, there is a dynamic between imports and exports that is difficult for a non economists (such as us) to quantify. For instance, if we don't import cars from Germany and Japan due to Covid, doesn't that quite likely drive up demand for domestic cars, thereby creating more jobs (or at least more overtime) for US autoworkers? Similarly, many low end industrial products are made overseas, while higher quality versions are made here. Some of the lost imports is certainly made up by switching to US sources, creating more jobs. Many products (such as petroleum and especially agricultural products) are both imported AND exported, so, again, lost imports are offset by lost exports. But, again, let's take worst case scenario, and assume the full impact is felt on our GDP. GDP growth is then flat/slightly upwards through the pandemic. At the end of 2019, there were 1.4 million more available jobs than available workers in the US. At the time, there were roughly 164 million workers in the US workforce. Assuming that 1.9% creates a similar percentage of lost jobs, that's 3.1 million jobs lost (1.9% of the 164M + 1.9% of the 1.4M) - a tenth what we've seen so far. An excess of a 1.7 million workers is hardly an economic calamity. In fact, that's where the US was in 2015. I don't recall 2015 as an economic catastrophe, do you? Would you rather be back in 2015, or where we are right now, in terms of the economy? Not really a hard choice. As far as your examples of retail businesses on the edge - that has been happening for 2 decades now - it would have and will continue to happen regardless of Covid, as retail continues to go the way of the manual transmission (still available, still preferred by some, but only 13% of car models offer it as an option). No, all our current problems would not have vanished if we hadn't shut down, but they clearly would have been MUCH less than they are.
  11. and yet capitalism has lifted more people out of extreme poverty in the last 20 years than all the global social programs combined, while socialism has proven time and again to lead to starvation and tyranny the loss of rights and no socialist country in history has ever been a democracy. But, hey, you keep wrapping yourself in comfortable lies, while those who understand history know that in the 20th century the countries with capitalistic economies largely gave up their "imperialist expansion", while the National Socialists in Germany started a rather large war as it embarked on rapid imperialist expansion, the United Soviet Socialist Republic took over Eastern Europe and fomented war throughout Latin America and Asia, and currently China, which at least has the honesty to call its ruling (and sole) party Communist uses imperialistic expansion (via economic means mostly) like nobody's business in Africa while bullying around its Asian neighbors. But, hey, at least they all have strict gun control and socialized medicine.
  12. CNN let us know that the lockdowns could result in 1.5 million more dying of TB. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/health/tuberculosis-deaths-lockdown-scli-intl/index.html and that more people may die of hunger as a result than of the disease itself https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326 and that 75,000 more are at risk due of suicide and overdoes due to lockdown-related strss. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-deaths-of-despair/index.html
  13. MIT is a respectable institution, but it is hardly "right wing". For instance, one of the authors of this essay is the left-leaning Tax Policy Center's Chairman, and a brief review of the other's affiliations and research interests also indicates he is left of center. Using these two to represent a "push from the right" is a bit like NPR using David Brooks as their "conservative" voice - he's only conservative compared to most people in New York City. You make it sound like there is something wrong with a competitive capitalist market creating both winners and losers. It creates more winners than losers (as evidence by the recent trend of people joining the upper class faster than joining the lower class by a 2 to 1 margin), and compared to the very abundant historical evidence (Venezuela, USSR, Iraq, North Korea, Cuba for instance) creates a lot more winners and a lot less losers than the alternatives. It sucks to lose, but not nearly as much as knowing you can never win.
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