Downturn in the SL Economy?

[Prokofy Neva]

So there's this commentary on Hamlet's article.

I don't think it's a large enough sample to make a judgement, and I don't think the issue is that there are "too many sellers" willing to "make things for free". Free things are almost always far worse than quality items you pay for.

I do see an interesting sign of the gatcha furor -- which has fueled the economy for years -- waning, not in my anecdotal experiences, but in the fact that quite a few merchants now are offering a "fat pack" or "full set" of the entire gatcha for a fixed price you can just buy -- so that people don't have to keep plugging $50 or even more likely $75 nowadays into the one-armed bandit to get the set. So now you can spend $1500 or $3000 and just buy it outright. Which is really how it should be. Those prices would have been sticker shock years ago -- now they aren't.

I do think the downturn is simply because of poor performance issues and lost content, which really frustrates consumers, including packaging annoyances. That's what it's about for me, my customers, and others I see posting in good faith on the forums.

 

[Theresa Tennyson]

55 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

So there's this commentary on Hamlet's article.

I don't think it's a large enough sample to make a judgement, and I don't think the issue is that there are "too many sellers" willing to "make things for free". Free things are almost always far worse than quality items you pay for.

I do see an interesting sign of the gatcha furor -- which has fueled the economy for years -- waning, not in my anecdotal experiences, but in the fact that quite a few merchants now are offering a "fat pack" or "full set" of the entire gatcha for a fixed price you can just buy -- so that people don't have to keep plugging $50 or even more likely $75 nowadays into the one-armed bandit to get the set. So now you can spend $1500 or $3000 and just buy it outright. Which is really how it should be. Those prices would have been sticker shock years ago -- now they aren't.

I do think the downturn is simply because of poor performance issues and lost content, which really frustrates consumers, including packaging annoyances. That's what it's about for me, my customers, and others I see posting in good faith on the forums.

 

If you look at that survey in detail 2/3 of the respondents were in the avatar customization market. There hasn't been a significant change to the de facto avatar framework since Bento came out at the end of 2015. The human avatar market is now very standardized on a limited number of choices that have all been around for quite a while. Many of the "new" items out aren't much different from the equivalent products of a couple years ago. The rush to buy new bodies and heads and accessories for them has calmed down so now merchants need to come out with something new and interesting for people to make the decision to buy and, well, they aren't.

Gacha is in a very similar situation. There are only so many things that make sense as a gacha series and by now most of them have been rehashed multiple times.

[Blush Bravin]

56 minutes ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

There hasn't been a significant change to the de facto avatar framework since Bento came out at the end of 2015. The human avatar market is now very standardized on a limited number of choices that have all been around for quite a while. Many of the "new" items out aren't much different from the equivalent products of a couple years ago. The rush to buy new bodies and heads and accessories for them has calmed down so now merchants need to come out with something new and interesting for people to make the decision to buy and, well, they aren't.

IMO, Theresa hit the nail on the head. How many pairs of jeans does one person need? How many mesh heads? Shoes? ETC! 

I think animesh and bakes on mesh will spur a new reason to go shopping. So we'll see.

2 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I do think the downturn is simply because of poor performance issues and lost content, which really frustrates consumers, including packaging annoyances. That's what it's about for me, my customers, and others I see posting in good faith on the forums.

 

I haven't seen any of these performance issues you mention. I'm not saying that you aren't having issues but what I am saying is that it's not the case for everyone, and I don't think it's changed. If you are having issues then you most likely have had the same issues since you purchased your current machine or acquired your internet connection. And as for the packaging annoyances you refer to I personally consider those to be improvements. I simply love not having to rez a box to unpack it and better yet, if it automatically unpacks so I don't have to click anything even better. I suppose if you want to find something to be negative about it's easy to do, but I prefer to look for the good rather than just complain about the little things.

[ellestones]

there is also a massive volume of well-made quality clothes, hair, shoes and accessories being virtually given away these days for 0$ and $1.  Lots of it not seconds anymore as has often been the case in the past

over the last few weeks I have put together my season change wardrobe, as I do every season. Ended up with a full season wardrobe -  12 new flawless high quality complete outfits - for L$46 in total.  While this is good for my purse, is not sustainable for creatives if this continues  

[Pamela Galli]

Yes, if customers stop wanting new products, merchants will stop making them.

It all comes down to supply adjusting to demand.

(I have heard people insist that demand will adjust to supply, but I think not.)

[Chic Aeon]

10 minutes ago, Pamela Galli said:

Yes, if customers stop wanting new products, merchants will stop making them.

It all comes down to supply adjusting to demand.

(I have heard people insist that demand will adjust to supply, but I think not.)

I think that is a point that hasn't been touched on so much.  I certainly have mentioned the slowing of releases for many creators, but haven't really thought about it often.   Since I am now doing ONE event instead of SIX, I am obviously not releasing as much. I have noticed a lot of old time recognized creators doing very little new. Some only log in rarely these days (they could certainly be in alt form doing something else of course).   

 

It has been obvious since summer  (worse than normal for many folks if not me) that sales were slowing markedly for what seems to be the majority of creators. Events are closing, getting smaller and or taking less than their normal quality of creators.   This is pretty much across the board at level 1, 2 and 3 events. I believe and even commented as such on Hamlet's blog (not sure which post) that the reason IS that we have all that we need. Our citizenry is aging, mesh is no longer new etc.   Animesh and Bakes on Mesh and the new Linden Homes may all help, but my crystal ball isn't all that filled with glow at the moment -- and typically I am a pretty "glowy" gal LOL.

 

[Pamela Galli]

Yes, when merchants are selling things that never wear out, never need replacing, updates are free forever — at some point things just stop selling.

its just logical, inevitable cause and effect.

ETA the only way to avoid it is a regular infusion of new residents. That is up to LL.

Also under these circumstances, LL jacked up the fees for cashing out. Which I mentioned at the time.

Edited December 1, 2018 by Pamela Galli

[Chic Aeon]

1 minute ago, Pamela Galli said:

Yes, when merchants are selling things that never wear out, never need replacing, updates are free forever — at some point things just stop selling.

its just logical, inevitable cause and effect.

The answer is of course NEW PEOPLE.  :D.  

[Pamela Galli]

2 minutes ago, Chic Aeon said:

The answer is of course NEW PEOPLE.  :D.  

Yep I had gone back and added that. Not holding my breath. 

[Qie Niangao]

3 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I don't think it's a large enough sample to make a judgement

Indeed. Frankly, I think your "anecdotal experiences" would be at least as valid as this mess of a survey. One doubts the judgment of those who take the results seriously. It's not only sample size, but utterly lax sampling methodology: as far as I can tell, respondents were predominantly (solely?) those who are timely in reading Hamlet's blog. It's hard to imagine a less representative sample of SL merchants.

I agree that gachas (and breedables before them) command diminishing interest from buyers. Not sure what the Next Big Thing will be, but its time is about due. (Could it be Animesh? Experience games based on open-sourced Linden Realms? EEP-enabled Windlight assets? Fresh, applier-free texture clothing for Bakes-on-Mesh avatars? Actually, any one of those would be more exciting than anything on deck for Sansar.)

"Sticker shock" is another thing I wonder about. The extremely expensive Bento+Mesh avatars and heads have certainly changed my pain threshold for shelling out L$s on my avatar. At the same time, recurring cost of land ownership has decreased as the Lab doubled Premium bonus acreage and generally cut land-related fees. What I'm wondering is how much SL spending is a zero-sum game (where lower land cost frees up resources for avatar customization and other user-generated content), and how much the opposite obtains: as custom avatar cost jumps we grow inured to higher prices in general.

[Theresa Tennyson]

9 minutes ago, Chic Aeon said:

The answer is of course NEW PEOPLE.  :D.  

In the avatar market as it stands now, though, it's "new people who are willing to spend US$30.00 on their avatar before they can even begin to customize it." It's pretty understandable why there might not be a lot of those people.

[Coby Foden]

We need new enhanced system avatar. Then we need to buy our clothes all over again. Good for the SL economy.
It will have other good benefits too. Especially so for the new users.

The mesh bodies and mesh heads market is quite saturated already. How many different mesh bodies and mesh heads one would really need?

[Theresa Tennyson]

40 minutes ago, Qie Niangao said:

Indeed. Frankly, I think your "anecdotal experiences" would be at least as valid as this mess of a survey. One doubts the judgment of those who take the results seriously. It's not only sample size, but utterly lax sampling methodology: as far as I can tell, respondents were predominantly (solely?) those who are timely in reading Hamlet's blog. It's hard to imagine a less representative sample of SL merchants.

It sounds like it was a survey that a merchant put together some time ago, but there are still major problems with the sample - for instance, it's skewed toward higher-end, full time creators. The minimum choice for monthly income from SL was $1000, for instance.

[Klytyna]

3 hours ago, Blush Bravin said:

bakes on mesh will spur a new reason to go shopping

Why?

The Fossils with vast collections of venerable system clothing, well, have vast collections already, and BakeFail is primarily intended to allow them to wear all their old crap.

And the newer people who don't have vast collections of 10 year old system glitch pants almost certainly don't WANT that stuff.

I suppose "World-O-Crap Discount Freebie Warehouse" might see a modest rise in sales of "Worst of 2008 - Complete Box Set" at 1 L$ a pop...

3 hours ago, Blush Bravin said:

How many pairs of jeans does one person need?

How many 10 year old system layer jeans does one person need...

4 hours ago, Blush Bravin said:

Shoes?

That you ask that question at all indicates a failure to understand female shopping patterns, RL or SL...  

Let's be honest, one of the biggest reasons for the collapse of System Clothing and the Rise of Mesh, in the early days, was... Better boots and shoes, followed later by better clothes, then better bodies... But first it was boots and shoes...

First rigged mesh items I ever bought in SL were, thighboots that didn't scissor at the knee because they were made of two parts.

 

[Syo Emerald]

I've personally not reached the point of "I have enough" in any category. I just equipped myself with new winter clothes today.

[Pamela Galli]

8 minutes ago, Syo Emerald said:

I've personally not reached the point of "I have enough" in any category. I just equipped myself with new winter clothes today.

This is a good point. it’s not like Barbie ever needed all those clothes. She just wanted them.

[Selene Gregoire]

19 minutes ago, Pamela Galli said:

This is a good point. it’s not like Barbie ever needed all those clothes. She just wanted them.

Leave Barbie alone!!

[Blush Bravin]

3 hours ago, Klytyna said:

Why?

The Fossils with vast collections of venerable system clothing, well, have vast collections already, and BakeFail is primarily intended to allow them to wear all their old crap.

And the newer people who don't have vast collections of 10 year old system glitch pants almost certainly don't WANT that stuff.

I suppose "World-O-Crap Discount Freebie Warehouse" might see a modest rise in sales of "Worst of 2008 - Complete Box Set" at 1 L$ a pop...

That you even question this shows that you have a failure to see beyond your own bias. I am very excited for BoM. Does that mean I am excited to be able to use it to wear age old system clothing? No! But I am excited to use tattoos and skin add-ons, like freckles, wrinkles, etc. All of which are impossible to use now with alpha glitches so prevalent. So please get a grip and stop being so narrow minded.

3 hours ago, Klytyna said:

How many 10 year old system layer jeans does one person need...

I think you use more system clothing than I do. Look at how you complain that you won't be able to use materials with BoM for all your skin tight latex jumpsuits. Personally, that's not the look I like to wear so it won't affect me in the least. I wear mesh jeans, thank you!

3 hours ago, Klytyna said:

That you ask that question at all indicates a failure to understand female shopping patterns, RL or SL...  

Let's be honest, one of the biggest reasons for the collapse of System Clothing and the Rise of Mesh, in the early days, was... Better boots and shoes, followed later by better clothes, then better bodies... But first it was boots and shoes...

First rigged mesh items I ever bought in SL were, thighboots that didn't scissor at the knee because they were made of two parts.

I own over 400 pairs of very high quality mesh shoes rigged for the Maitreya body. I know shopping patterns but everyone does eventually come to their limits. I've reached mine unless I see a pair that is really different from the ones I already own. Then I would be tempted to buy more shoes. I don't see that.

Perhaps you need to think about what's happening today and stop accusing me and others of being backward thinking because we embrace BoM.

[Janet Voxel]

For me, my shopping has trailed off for a couple of reasons that mainly deal with some disturbing trends that just weren’t sustainable.

1) repeat items. I think this started happening about a year and a half ago. You go to an event, Nice boots. Go to another event, same boots. Worse still two events later...Nice boots. Don’t I have those? Check inventory to confirm, yep have those. 

2) Hiding the unique patterns in the fat pack. Let’s face it, everybody could use MORE leggings, especially when they come in a unique pattern. Thing is, I don’t want to spend $1800L for all the basic colors, just for 3 striped leggings. And no adding a zipper in the back isn’t enough to make me want to buy them either. Some designers have smartened up and sell mini fat packs, it’s still a thing though.

3) Creators are copying each other. I know that’s always been a thing. It’s just gotten to the point where it’s insulting. I remember the first time I noticed this, saw an outfit. Two booths over...same outfit. I’ve been noticing this more often.

So, I think there is starting to be a little bit of fatigue with events and cranking out item. It’s probably starting to show with sales too.

[Cindy Evanier]

17 minutes ago, janetosilio said:

3) Creators are copying each other. I know that’s always been a thing. It’s just gotten to the point where it’s insulting. I remember the first time I noticed this, saw an outfit. Two booths over...same outfit. I’ve been noticing this more often.

Are you sure its copying and not people who buy the same FP templates?  First time I saw that it was 2 booths side by side. 

[AyelaNewLife]

8 hours ago, Blush Bravin said:

IMO, Theresa hit the nail on the head. How many pairs of jeans does one person need? How many mesh heads? Shoes? ETC! 

I think animesh and bakes on mesh will spur a new reason to go shopping. So we'll see.

I don't know much about animesh, so leaving that to one side...

I don't think BoM will have a noticeable impact on the overall health of the economy.

It will have a noticeable effect on our quality of life, for sure! I can't wait to dump my freckles straight onto my skin layer rather than an onion skin, and finally being able to wear an effects layer with them without having to swap to Slink hands (insert rant out Maitreya's feature deficit here). System clothing isn't likely to be used by many, but there's so much more that can be done with cosmetics, effects and underwear/stockings. 

But does BoM let us do anything new? Not really. Anything that can be done with system layers under BoM can currently be done with appliers. We can just use more. Which is awesome; but where's the new market for creators? All current applier creators will just make system tattoos/layers too, not much different to adding a new body type to their existing range. So it will be great for us, but will it spark another gold rush of spending? Probably not. Which is also good for us, I already spend too much

[Blush Bravin]

33 minutes ago, AyelaNewLife said:

I don't think BoM will have a noticeable impact on the overall health of the economy.

 

33 minutes ago, AyelaNewLife said:

but where's the new market for creators?

I haven't been buying much in the way of tattoos or skin effects because they just won't work with our current onion layer system. So for me, I know once BoM is here I'm going to be shopping a lot for those kinds of things. And I'll be just straight up honest, if creators decide to charge for BoM enabled heads, like many did with Bento, I'm going to be one of those who will gladly lay my lindens down to get one. Also, I have no problem buying system layers for the skin appliers I already have. I don't expect creators to go through all that trouble to make system layers and not get paid for their work.

[Tarani Tempest]

38 minutes ago, Blush Bravin said:

 

I haven't been buying much in the way of tattoos or skin effects because they just won't work with our current onion layer system. So for me, I know once BoM is here I'm going to be shopping a lot for those kinds of things. And I'll be just straight up honest, if creators decide to charge for BoM enabled heads, like many did with Bento, I'm going to be one of those who will gladly lay my lindens down to get one. Also, I have no problem buying system layers for the skin appliers I already have. I don't expect creators to go through all that trouble to make system layers and not get paid for their work.

This is pretty much the same for me.   A while back I just stopped buying tattoos, really any applier based items for my mesh body.  I don't wear any sort of 'system' type clothes, but I do like tatts and lingerie appliers.  I got tired of fighting with trying to layer anything on the onion layers of the mesh bodies. So for me, BoM means I can go back to tatts and undies.... which means I will go back to BUYING them. 

As for my OLD system layers, I trashed them years ago.  I have no desire to wear any of that.  I am sure there are some that are looking forward to it.....but quite a lot of us, are not.

I still have some frustrations with how BoM will be implemented, that is no secret. But, I am still very much looking forward to how they will enhance our user experience with mesh body parts

Blush and I both , on the daily deal with all things Maitreya.  We see many issues. One of the biggest issue is the inability to layer a lot of textures on the onion skins w/out running into the annoying transparency demon.  So, yea...I do think BoM will be a bit of a good kick to the fashion economy.  Will it be the end all be all answer to all the things, nope.  But  I consider any tiny good kick a plus  

 

Edited December 2, 2018 by Tarani Tempest
typo!

[Wulfie Reanimator]

10 hours ago, Pamela Galli said:

(I have heard people insist that demand will adjust to supply, but I think not.)

Arguably, too much supply will have a negative impact on demand. Decision fatigue as well.

7 hours ago, Klytyna said:

BakeFail is primarily intended to allow them to wear all their old crap.

The primary intention of BOM is efficiency. Reduction on texture usage and "onion bodies."
Being able to wear 15 year old system layers and fixing alpha-sorting issues are a side-effect.

[Love Zhaoying]

9 minutes ago, Wulfie Reanimator said:

8 hours ago, Klytyna said:

BakeFail is primarily intended to allow them to wear all their old crap.

The primary intention of BOM is efficiency. Reduction on texture usage and "onion bodies."
Being able to wear 15 year old system layers and fixing alpha-sorting issues are a side-effect.

When I saw your post, my first thought was “Can’t wait for Klytyna to weigh in”, then I saw you were replying to her. 😹