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1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

There's been so much information to pore over this year that it's just impossible to keep up.

For sure. Today I've been trying to understand what's happening in the preprint of the Mayo convalescent plasma trial. It's super messy, and I don't know a way to quantify the effects of a nasty confound in the data. As an observational study, the treatment conditions are anything but controlled, and here there are data from three months of cases.

One of the conditions they want to compare (how much better patients fared when given the plasma within 3 days of diagnosis, than they did if treated day 4 or after) varies from the start of the study (when a large majority of patients got the plasma after 4 or more days) to the end of the study (when most got it in those first 3 days). Problem is, for reasons unrelated to the plasma treatment, patients did much better with each successive month of the study. The paper recognizes this confounding factor and stratifies the data into three discrete month-long "epochs" and within each epoch they found that the <= 3 days group fared better than the 4+ days group. 

But there's every reason to suppose that both these factors varied continuously and monotonically throughout the study period, and within those epochs. For June, say, the first week of the month will have worse outcomes than the last week, regardless of treatment -- and that first week will have more patients in the 4-or-more-day group than will be in that group by end of the month. So when June's 4+ days group fares worse than its <= 3 days group, is it really the result of those treatment groups or just an artifact of which day in June the patient got sick?

Here's part of Table 2:

277554877_Table2Epochs.thumb.png.cf449a83a9ff26c9a3137b3a62617be0.png

There's got to be a better way to assess this, given the raw data -- but just using these data and a spreadsheet I could project synthetic subgroups for early, middle, and late in each epoch and their mortality rates based strictly on the overall trend of reduced mortality, and at least half the claimed effect of treatment timeliness was subsumed by that overall trend, nothing to do with the treatment itself.

The other big claim of the paper is an impressive dose-response curve, but I don't see any way of knowing whether the higher antibody level transfusions might also have been more common later in the study.

Despite these problems (and everything else I've overlooked), there might be something here, but Azar's "35% mortality reduction" claim at Trump's press conference yesterday is completely bogus.

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On 8/22/2020 at 10:49 PM, Ceka Cianci said:

Right now I'm hoping more for a good anti viral or antiretroviral more than a vaccine first.. something that will kill it or contain it for those that have it or come down with it, until we can reach a good vaccine..

Perhaps you have already found one and didn't realize it.

On 8/19/2020 at 12:24 PM, Ceka Cianci said:

The real strange thing is, not a one of them has gotten it yet.. As careless as they are, they have all dodged the bullet so far..

These guys are probably hugging them at the truck door soon as they hit the driveway..

it's crazy..

The clue might be in this:

On 8/22/2020 at 10:06 PM, Ceka Cianci said:

The spray is water and some sort of vegetable oil mix, so basically the moisture is like working in a stir fry kitchen. 

From the sounds of your posts, your plant uses a vegetable glycerine based cutting and cooling fluid:

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Vegetable oils have become identified world over as a potential source of environmentally favorable metal working fluids due to a combination of biodegradability, renewability and excellent lubrication performance. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260288281_Vegetable_Oil-Based_Metal_Working_Fluids-A_Review

Another characteristic of vegetable glycerines and oils is its anti bacterial and viral properties:

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The glycerol backbone is found in those lipids known as glycerides. Due to having antimicrobial and antiviral properties it is widely used in FDA approved wound and burn treatments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycerol

This characteristic of glycols and glycerines has been studied since the 1940's when it was found that:

Quote

It has been found that propylene glycol vapor dispersed into the air of an enclosed space produces a marked and rapid bactericidal effect on microorganisms introduced into such an atmosphere in droplet form. Concentrations of 1 gm. of propylene glycol vapor in two to four million cc. of air produced immediate and complete sterilization of air into which pneumococci, streptococci, staphylococci, H. influenzae, and other microorganisms as well as influenza virus had been sprayed.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/pdf/593.pdf

Quote

 

Air Sanitizers

There is considerable evidence that glycol (triethylene, dipropylene, or propylene glycol) vapors produce significant decreases i/n numbers of viable airborne bacteria under relatively wide conditions of relative humidity and temperature when properly and continuously dispensed by a vaporizing device so as to maintain suitable concentrations in the air of enclosed spaces.

https://archive.epa.gov/pesticides/oppad001/web/html/dis-11.html

 

Note: Propylene glycol and vegetable glycerine were both tested

Anyway just thought i would point that out as it struck me when reading your posts about the plant you work in. I remembered the vegetable glycerin qualities from back when i was researching e-cig vaping a few years ago. 

 

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Wow.
I procured some vegetable based glycerine for use in small scale glue making for necklace components.
I also got some glycol as well for a similar purpose.

Now alls I need is one of those fancy Ceka style blenders and I"ll be woofing it down!

(joke 🙂

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1 hour ago, Maryanne Solo said:

Wow.
I procured some vegetable based glycerine for use in small scale glue making for necklace components.
I also got some glycol as well for a similar purpose.

Now alls I need is one of those fancy Ceka style blenders and I"ll be woofing it down!

(joke 🙂

Be sure to leave the lid off the blender so the fruity sludge spreads out in the kitchen for the best effect!

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6 hours ago, Maryanne Solo said:

Wow.
I procured some vegetable based glycerine for use in small scale glue making for necklace components.
I also got some glycol as well for a similar purpose.

Now alls I need is one of those fancy Ceka style blenders and I"ll be woofing it down!

(joke 🙂

I made another good one today with it..hehehe

Spinach ,Kale Celery, green apples lime, Lemon, grapefruit, Ginger root and Tumric..Oh and mixed with almond milk Flax seed Hemp seed and this stuff called amazing grass which is an energy booster..

Good stuff.. hehehe

It tastes great even though it sounds like it wouldn't..

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15 hours ago, Arielle Popstar said:

Anyway just thought i would point that out as it struck me when reading your posts about the plant you work in. I remembered the vegetable glycerin qualities from back when i was researching e-cig vaping a few years ago. 

 

All of that sounds really interesting.. I'm gonna have to read more on that myself now..

I actually do a tiny bit of vaping..No nicotine or anything like that..Just some CBD.. I have a few little aches from my Barrel racing days that spur up from time to time when the weather is right..hehehehe

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7 hours ago, Ceka Cianci said:

I actually do a tiny bit of vaping..No nicotine or anything like that..Just some CBD.. I have a few little aches from my Barrel racing days that spur up from time to time when the weather is right..hehehehe

Oh you reminded me I need to pick up another CBD vape unit for my Mother. She wasn't into barrel racing that I know of but it does help with her back.

For myself I don't vape regularly but when I remembered the medicinal effects of the bases, I did pick it up when I started getting a sore throat during this lockdown (essential worker). Three separate times I started to feel like I was coming down with something but an hour or two of vaping and I felt fine the next day. No idea if it was the Corvid virus but happy in any case that it cleared up. I do remember too reading on some of the e-cig forums that many posters reported getting sick a lot less often after they picked up vaping instead of cigarettes.

I am curious though if the lack of corvid cases in your workplace may have something to do with that water/vegetable mix you were mentioning. Reminds me of an article I read of a copper smelter in the 1850's where a doctor realized that the workers were not susceptible to the cholera outbreaks that were happening around the time. It was later that it was realized about copper being effective against a whole slew of nasties out there and that anyone who handled it regularly, was protected against many of them. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Guess there is no money to be made from these things so Pharma is not interested in their effectiveness and we therefore don't hear much about it or there is even an active campaign to dissuade people from using or relying on these potential remedies.

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12 hours ago, Arielle Popstar said:

Oh you reminded me I need to pick up another CBD vape unit for my Mother. She wasn't into barrel racing that I know of but it does help with her back.

For myself I don't vape regularly but when I remembered the medicinal effects of the bases, I did pick it up when I started getting a sore throat during this lockdown (essential worker). Three separate times I started to feel like I was coming down with something but an hour or two of vaping and I felt fine the next day. No idea if it was the Corvid virus but happy in any case that it cleared up. I do remember too reading on some of the e-cig forums that many posters reported getting sick a lot less often after they picked up vaping instead of cigarettes.

I am curious though if the lack of corvid cases in your workplace may have something to do with that water/vegetable mix you were mentioning. Reminds me of an article I read of a copper smelter in the 1850's where a doctor realized that the workers were not susceptible to the cholera outbreaks that were happening around the time. It was later that it was realized about copper being effective against a whole slew of nasties out there and that anyone who handled it regularly, was protected against many of them. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqkyw/copper-destroys-viruses-and-bacteria-why-isnt-it-everywhere?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Guess there is no money to be made from these things so Pharma is not interested in their effectiveness and we therefore don't hear much about it or there is even an active campaign to dissuade people from using or relying on these potential remedies.

I vaped when I had the flu and was all congested.. it set me straight... Even when i had pneumonia I vaped and felt better after..

I'll vape if i have a cold or anything.. If i ever get the flu, it's been mostly for a day then I'm back at work.. I think my longest stretch out of work for being sick was when i had pneumonia..

It was still like two weeks before I could get back..but anyone else i knew at work that had it, they were out for a month or more..

 

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59 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

This one is for @Amina Sopwith and others from the UK, or who love librarians.

Notice the titles of the books arranged across the top shelf behind Boris. Trolling librarian for the win!

326087938_TrollingBoris-Blank.thumb.jpg.a9e1585609b7436aef861923808dd6ea.jpg

Haha, yes I saw that! I'd have added The Idiot by Fyodor Dostoevsky, Money by Martin Amis and At the Mountains of Madness by H P Lovecraft. 

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So very soon is the schools years start(september first),schools will work normally,news say there will be no second wave of virus. Malls  slowly come back to their normal work schedules. and irregular heart  rhytm disturb my sleep in last days,people still buy sanitizers,even too much but wears dirty masks,ergh.((( 

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Death toll is now at over 180K in the US.  tRump's gross mishandling of the pandemic is how we're in this mess.  There is nothing redeemable about this orange clown.  This guy tries to hinder the post office to better his chances of cheating the election. This guy stayed silent when Russia made a bounty deal on US soldiers with the Taliban. Rump is an open racist and consider white supremacists "very fine people". He stokes fear and hatred with claims of boogeymen of color invading white suburbia to destroy it.  180K+ Americans did not need to die.

Anyone who's still rooting for him at this point is just straight up supporting racism, bigotry, and this country's destruction.

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1 hour ago, PermaRuthed said:

Death toll is now at over 180K in the US.  tRump's gross mishandling of the pandemic is how we're in this mess.  There is nothing redeemable about this orange clown.  This guy tries to hinder the post office to better his chances of cheating the election. This guy stayed silent when Russia made a bounty deal on US soldiers with the Taliban. Rump is an open racist and consider white supremacists "very fine people". He stokes fear and hatred with claims of boogeymen of color invading white suburbia to destroy it.  180K+ Americans did not need to die.

Anyone who's still rooting for him at this point is just straight up supporting racism, bigotry, and this country's destruction.

New look who dis?😏

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6 hours ago, PermaRuthed said:

Death toll is now at over 180K in the US.  tRump's gross mishandling of the pandemic is how we're in this mess.  There is nothing redeemable about this orange clown.  This guy tries to hinder the post office to better his chances of cheating the election. This guy stayed silent when Russia made a bounty deal on US soldiers with the Taliban. Rump is an open racist and consider white supremacists "very fine people". He stokes fear and hatred with claims of boogeymen of color invading white suburbia to destroy it.  180K+ Americans did not need to die.

Anyone who's still rooting for him at this point is just straight up supporting racism, bigotry, and this country's destruction.

Whats going to hinder voting is, you have 100 million renters in the U.S. and half of them are going to be homeless by election time, because congress will come off their  4th break during a pandemic for an emergency vote on a bill for the post office, but won't to make a deal for those that are losing everything, tossed onto the streets and being put into survival mode..

Extending Unemployment as well as the 2nd stimulus check was even added to the postal bill to try and get them passed and those two points got voted down..

Voting will be the last thing on those peoples minds when they don't have an address anymore and are too busy trying not to starve..

That's a lot of votes to not give a damn about, let alone put just one form of voting  in front of all those lives.

It just goes to show how much the people matter to them vs keeping their lazy congress asses in those seats.

Edited by Ceka Cianci
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23 minutes ago, Ceka Cianci said:

Whats going to hinder voting is, you have 100 million renters in the U.S. and half of them are going to be homeless by election time, because congress will come off their  4th break during a pandemic for an emergency vote on a bill for the post office, but won't to make a deal for those that are losing everything, tossed onto the streets and being put into survival mode..

Extending Unemployment as well as the 2nd stimulus check was even added to the postal bill to try and get them passed and those two points got voted down..

Voting will be the last thing on those peoples minds when they don't have an address anymore and are too busy trying not to starve..

That's a lot of votes to not give a damn about, let alone put just one form of voting  in front of all those lives.

It just goes to show how much the people matter to them vs keeping their lazy congress asses in those seats.

Yes, that too.  It's a nasty domino effect, from the outbreak, to lock down, to being furloughed leading to unemployment and no money left for anything. And add worrying about social distancing on the streets to the mix. Somebody must've stepped on a butterfly 'cause we're stuck in the most head-slappingly stupidest timeline ever.

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41 minutes ago, Ceka Cianci said:

because congress will come off their  4th break during a pandemic for an emergency vote on a bill for the post office, but won't to make a deal for those that are losing everything, tossed onto the streets and being put into survival mode..

Extending Unemployment as well as the 2nd stimulus check was even added to the postal bill to try and get them passed and those two points got voted down..

It just goes to show how much the people matter to them vs keeping their lazy congress asses in those seats.

They can't come to an agreement. Pelosi says the other side isn't willing to provide the amount needed & is leaving out important parts in the bill so she won't accept it:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pelosi-slams-gop-says-dollar13-trillion-in-coronavirus-relief-not-enough/ar-BB18tZBO?li=BBnb7Kz

Health care issues are getting even worse now. It was bad before with so many uninsured and 30,000 people each year dying due to to lack of affordable health care insurance, and now many of those who recently lost jobs providing their health care insurance are without health care too.

Republicans believe those who can't pay don't deserve health care, unlike Europe and Canada where all are eligible for health care. 

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16 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

They can't come to an agreement. Pelosi says the other side isn't willing to provide the amount needed & is leaving out important parts in the bill so she won't accept it:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pelosi-slams-gop-says-dollar13-trillion-in-coronavirus-relief-not-enough/ar-BB18tZBO?li=BBnb7Kz

Health care issues are getting even worse now. It was bad before with so many uninsured and 30,000 people each year dying due to to lack of affordable health care insurance, and now many of those who recently lost jobs providing their health care insurance are without health care too.

Republicans believe those who can't pay don't deserve health care, unlike Europe and Canada where all are eligible for health care. 

I was given crap one time by my husband for tossing my half drank water bottles behind the passenger side of my jeep..

He said, every time in get in your jeep,there is at least 5 half drank bottles of water in your back seat.. He said ,why don't you just toss them out when you get home..

He said once the sun heats them up they are no good anymore anyways..

I said, If I ever roll my jeep up in the hills and can't  get out, at least I'll have water.. plastic poisoning is the last thing that's gonna be on my mind..

When someone is on the streets along with their children and not a thing in their pocket to get a meal, the last thing on their mind is, Sure wish i had some insurance right about now.

Pelosi and Shumer didn't want to separate those issues from the bill.. so here we are..

 

Edited by Ceka Cianci
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21 minutes ago, Ceka Cianci said:

When someone is on the streets along with their children and not a thing in their pocket to get a meal, the last thing on their mind is, Sure wish i had some insurance right about now.

Pelosi and Shumer didn't want to separate those issues from the bill.. so here we are..

Health insurance isn't part of the bill they're arguing over.  I was just adding some more info regarding what's happening in this Covid crisis. People die without health insurance when they can't pay for Covid treatment, or other health conditions.

Here are some of the issues she's concerned about and wants in the bill they're arguing over:

"As children return to schools, I have great concern over the Republicans' refusal to acknowledge the funding levels that experts and scientists tell us are needed for safe school reopening. They are also rejecting the funding needed for 14 million hungry children in America and rejecting funding for children's families for rental assistance when millions are at risk of eviction and homelessness,"

 

Edited by Luna Bliss
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Biden has a public option in his plan so that all will have access to medical treatment.  Both parties funnel too much to the wealthy so I'm not happy with either one of them, but we need to think about the poorest of the poor who are dying without access to care. It's just not acceptable to let thousands die each year due to lack of access to health care.

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