What is Your Prediction for SL in 2021?

[Prokofy Neva]

I used to make elaborate predictions about SL, but now, I really can't. I haven't gone to any Linden office hours. I haven't followed any of the politics of development. I just know search is broken. Perhaps I will put more effort into this exploration after I get a big RL project done.

But the notice that the new owners of SL had their purchase approved by the trade authorities passed by quietly. And nobody has said a thing and there isn't any drama -- and that seems odd. But maybe it's a good sign?

It was good perhaps that their review happened on Biden's watch, so to speak, and not Trump's. But since the SL currency is not bitcoin, I wouldn't expect any hold-ups.

I haven't heard any rumours that the new owners are going to get rid of adult content, or some of its worst forms, although I think capture rape RP should be a candidate, not to mention some of the child hentai anime ads. But they may do nothing. They don't want to lose a chunk of their user base.

Curiously, there is no announcement, and no hurry on fixing search -- and maybe this is the "new normal". I hear it's broken now in FS, too but haven't confirmed this myself.

I don't see that the Lindens have any big new idea that is going to alienate any group within their fan base -- if anything, they've generally pleased and delighted them with the Bellisseria homes.

No tech press is interested in SL enough to explore any of this, much less the fanboy bloggers.

It seems they have no intention of flipping it.

I had to wonder, when I saw videos of them crunching up old servers, now that they've moved to the cloud, if any of my old lost inventory is on there. Certainly user conversations they may have retained would be gone but who knows exactly how they do this.

Maybe someone will have something useful to say.

[FairreLilette]

Need to get past the coronavirus economic fallout which could take a few years.  Banks could collapse.  A rush to bonds could cause a liquidity crisis.  Business could go bust and those jobs will disappear.  

I think it's more along the lines of what plans creator's have to weather the coming financial storms.  If a creator relies on SL as their income or a good part of their income, do they have any plan B or C even to stay afloat?  I think a lot of people are just taking this one day at a time...but for the future of business, I'm not too optimistic at present.   However, I am an optimist.  I have never felt so pessimistic in my life ever.  

So, my prediction is it could be "rough".  

Edited January 7, 2021 by FairreLilette

[Bree Giffen]

I think the new investors want retention to keep SL stable and generating income. Quality of life improvements like a push for fixing bugs and fixing long term issues. For existing residents this would be the most noticeable change. 

Gaining new customers is possibly not super important as I don’t think a huge growth in SL is expected by the new owners. Maybe expanding into mobile and consoles. 

With all the remote networking it’s possible LL will move it’s offices to a smaller location.

My last prediction is that no one will ever be satisfied with the new last names in 2021.

[Chic Aeon]

I don't see the OPs post so I am going from what you guys before me have said and the title of course :D.  But --

 

I was talking with a good friend last night who used to be in SL but hasn't logged in for a very long time. He is also in the web backend and security business and has been for over 25 years.  I was putting forth my thoughts on the new ownership and his reply was that investment groups that buy companies (this was reportedly a leveraged buyout) are only looking for profit and of course I knew that; I was just pretending that I didn't LOL. So much for that.   There are most likely no great stars in their eyes about making SL what it "could be".  

 

Still if we look at the state of the grid -- from the citizen's point of view anyway -- there are some hints about what could help.  LL did have some good ideas these past few years but I suspect that all the money going into Sansar made some of those ideas impractical to pursue.  SOME sort of mobile would be good since much of the world appears to live on their phones. But if we go back to that investors only want the money they can make idea then putting money into new features is probably not high on their lists.   

 

Belli has been a great success and brings in dollars via premium memberships so I suspect that will keep on going. Other than paying the Moles, I don't think there is a huge outlay of money on development etc.  The new owners could raise MP fees again, a few clicks and that is a done deal; no monetary outlay.  Land seems to still be in big demand with fairly amazing growth during this last year despite the moratoriums (including now) on new grid creation. So opening up the land store would certainly be a plus once they take over. 

 

As has been talked about many times here, letting people buy homesteads without having a full sim would no doubt sell a LOT of homesteads.  How this would affect things overall, I am not too sure. Lower cost sims on demand would also be a big hit, but there would be some work to get that happening (assuming that wasn't worked on in the past and then discarded). 

 

The CREATOR aspect is pretty important though -- as mentioned above.  I suspect that most folks know either from talking to others or simply watching what is happening on the grid -- that it isn't good out there for creators. While there may be some folks making the same or more money than in the past they are almost guaranteed to be in the minority.  There is a sale every time you look around, even with the big name brands with very expensive products. Eventually this supersaturates the market and unless you are very "niche", there are income issues. 

 

I talk to a fair number of creators honestly and not one of them is happy with their sales for 2020. Again, anecdotal evidence but that's really all we have.  I retired officially at the end of 2020 but if I had been cashing out the year would have not been a good one. My guess (I haven never kept close track of my books) is that my gross was down about a third.  

 

According to Tyche Sheperd's data new signups (once the Spring lockdown spike faded) were WAY down over the previous year.  You need new folks to sell things too. Us old guys already have more than we need anyway.  So something to get new people interested again would be good.  Maybe a small plot of free land ?   It's not like there isn't enough available at the moment LOL. 

 

Anyway, that's enough musing. Time to do something creative. 

[JanuarySwan]

16 minutes ago, Chic Aeon said:

So something to get new people interested again would be good.  

 

I think SL needs to appeal to the younger crowd and consider mobile as has been mentioned but I'm not sure it's land that new people want.  I'd say most younger people may sign on because they want sex.   I've talked to newbies and for many the thing they want NOW is sex and perhaps to find an internet partner.  What turns them off is the effort it takes to make a mesh avatar and the cost along with extreme confusion about the whole thing - which head, which body, which skin now - applier/bom WHAT?     I'm just going to come and say what I think...I think if someone came up with an easy way to make a mesh avatar in a wear-and-go way as well as much cheaper, SL could attract a younger crowd.  And, have perhaps 10 wear-and-go females and 10 wear-and-go males...but still could be shaped if wanted too.  So, say, a wear-and-go mesh avatar for around 3.5K with both body and head might probably not be a bad idea.  The cost of making an original avatar in the 10-15K L range is not attractive to the younger crowd as it takes too long and it's too expense.   Younger crowds want stuff n.o.w.  Many dudes on the net just want to chat up a girl and then cyber, not make an expensive and time-consuming avatar.  

Edited January 7, 2021 by JanuarySwan

[Arielle Popstar]

Oz had this to say at the meeting on Wednesday:

[07:55] Oz Linden: The combination of uplift and the acquisition completing literally within days of each other makes for an excellent time to start lots of discussions... but we're all (including our new owners) very excited about the possibilities.

which certainly sounds good though tbh I think as residents we have all been very excited about the possibilities for years without seeing much in the way of anything coming to any fruition, as so much tends to bog down to no more than just discussions. As one person remarked in the meeting, it is mostly "business as usual" which Oz did mention he hoped to prove her wrong about but I'm not overly optimistic they will. 

Prediction wise I think it would be safe to say that the graphical parts of Lumiya will be broken this year but the Lab's own mobile efforts will not even have full text viewer capabilities until next.

[animats]

6 minutes ago, Arielle Popstar said:

It is mostly "business as usual" which Oz did mention he hoped to prove her wrong about but I'm not overly optimistic they will. 

That's what Oz told me two years ago, when I said I wished I'd been here on the way up instead of on the way down.

[Bree Giffen]

The whole idea of a text only mobile viewer seems rather pointless. Isn't the entire reason for a mobile viewer to grow a userbase in the mobile market? How many new mobile users do you think would try it? Zero. I mean it's basically chatting with random strangers if you can actually find any. 

[Drayke Newall]

3 hours ago, Bree Giffen said:

The whole idea of a text only mobile viewer seems rather pointless. Isn't the entire reason for a mobile viewer to grow a userbase in the mobile market? How many new mobile users do you think would try it? Zero. I mean it's basically chatting with random strangers if you can actually find any. 

I think it is going to be another sansar result and an entire waste of money. It has the same origins, something promised and desired 'a mobile client' (similar to sansar will be SL2.0) however, will lack the features needed at the start (full graphical viewer) that would make it successful. They should do it right and fully the first time or not at all. Where on earth did Linden Lab even get the idea that anyone wanted just a text chat program for SL on mobile?

There have been far to many statements from LL over the past decade to this effect "we are releasing it like this now and will be updating with better additions later down the track" similar to how they have worded the mobile client. Where is the promised later down the track features of Experiences, BoM, Animesh etc?

17 hours ago, Arielle Popstar said:

Oz had this to say at the meeting on Wednesday:

[07:55] Oz Linden: The combination of uplift and the acquisition completing literally within days of each other makes for an excellent time to start lots of discussions... but we're all (including our new owners) very excited about the possibilities.

I think Oz should realise that the userbase is sick of just discussions. Jira is full of discussions of bugs, feature requests (98% labelled as "not considering this feature at the moment due to being to busy"). They have all the ideas and discussions they need within these forums and Jira that should be sufficient to provide them ample updates, bug fixes, features etc for the next 20 years.

If he is talking about discussions about possibilities with the new owners, then I would dare say that ship has sailed as such discussions about improving a service should have been discussed and negotiated before acquisition.

My prediction for this year is that it will be exactly what Oz said he hoped to prove wrong, in that it will be 'business as usual'. The status quo will remain, features needed to improve retention and bring in new users will not be provided, viewer ui will stay the awkward same, scripting engine will not be improved, ARC will not be fixed, optimisation will stay the same in that there isn't any,  avatars will get more complicated, cache system wont be updated etc, despite the new owners. I could go on.

I hope I am wrong and that the investors will do just that, invest to improve everything in SL and bring in new users, make it big etc. I am not holding my breath however.

[ChinRey]

46 minutes ago, Drayke Newall said:

My prediction for this year is that it will be exactly what Oz said he hoped to prove wrong, in that it will be 'business as usual'. The status quo will remain, features needed to improve retention and bring in new users will not be provided, viewer ui will stay the awkward same, scripting engine will not be improved, ARC will not be fixed, optimisation will stay the same in that there isn't any,  avatars will get more complicated, cache system wont be updated etc, despite the new owners. I could go on.

I actually hope for SL's sake you are right and he is wrong. Any changes in SL's profile to attract new users are bound to alienate old users and it's almost guaranteed SL will loose more than it gains that way. It might have been different ten years ago but today I believe the best strategy is to play it safe and not try to rock the boat.

[ChinRey]

4 hours ago, Bree Giffen said:

The whole idea of a text only mobile viewer seems rather pointless. Isn't the entire reason for a mobile viewer to grow a userbase in the mobile market? How many new mobile users do you think would try it? Zero. I mean it's basically chatting with random strangers if you can actually find any. 

I do agree that a text only mobile app isn't likely to attract new people. But I think many existing users will appreciate being able to keep in touch with their SL friends even when they're away from their computers and for that reason it still looks like a good diea to me.

[Garnet Psaltery]

5 hours ago, Bree Giffen said:

The whole idea of a text only mobile viewer seems rather pointless. Isn't the entire reason for a mobile viewer to grow a userbase in the mobile market? How many new mobile users do you think would try it? Zero. I mean it's basically chatting with random strangers if you can actually find any. 

Strangers could also be doing unspeakable things to your avatar which you can't see.  I suppose some might welcome such an opportunity for textual satisfaction.

[JanuarySwan]

1 hour ago, ChinRey said:

I do agree that a text only mobile app isn't likely to attract new people. But I think many existing users will appreciate being able to keep in touch with their SL friends even when they're away from their computers and for that reason it still looks like a good diea to me.

I agree about it for friends plus it's needed for some business in SL - real estate especially and the ability to get in touch with your landlord for one example.  

 

2 hours ago, Drayke Newall said:

avatars will get more complicated

 How can avatars get more complicated than they are now?  If SL ever realizes it does need to retain new users and does not offer an easier way to make a mesh avatar, sims could start up that are for Classic avatars only.  I don't believe Philip Rosedale's vision of SL was all these complicated avatars.  Philip's vision was sign up and have fun.  Maybe buy a hair then maybe buy a skin in the "olden days".  

[Sister Nova]

52 minutes ago, Garnet Psaltery said:

Strangers could also be doing unspeakable things to your avatar which you can't see.  I suppose some might welcome such an opportunity for textual satisfaction.

That's certainly the case for the existing text only viewers, but the mobile app that LL has mentioned won't have the avatar using it actually inworld.... which is a blessing indeed for those of us that love to drive the mainland roads and have to dodge those avs that love to stand in the middle of it.  

[FairreLilette]

1 hour ago, JanuarySwan said:

Philip's vision was sign up and have fun.  Maybe buy a hair then maybe buy a skin in the "olden days".  

I think it's safe to say that was Philip Rosedale's vision.  We could sign on and begin having fun the same day.  Now, it's sign up and be rejected if you don't have a mesh avatar.  Once newbies look at the cost and hassle of making a mesh avatar, they are gone and off to simpler worlds.  And, some probably leave because they have to deal with a rejection and rejection is painful.  Philip Rosedale did once have a simpler world.   Others may think we looked awful as Classic avatars, but the lighting and viewer were different to enhance the Classic avatar more, and it was fun.  I think the motto was "meet friends today" and "start creating today".  That's not so today unless you want to live a SL as a semi rejected hermit in a Classic avatar.    

It's funny January you mention sims for Classic avatars only.  When I first joined SL I was told many clubs were allowing mesh avatars only.  

Edited January 8, 2021 by FairreLilette

[Arielle Popstar]

6 hours ago, Bree Giffen said:

The whole idea of a text only mobile viewer seems rather pointless. Isn't the entire reason for a mobile viewer to grow a userbase in the mobile market? How many new mobile users do you think would try it? Zero. I mean it's basically chatting with random strangers if you can actually find any. 

Yes I agree it seems rather pointless for the idea of gaining new users. Its only point would be for existing users and even from that perspective, they are complicating the crap out of it by creating them platform specific rather than one usable on a cross platform browser.

A graphical one however would be relevant for an even larger market than what S/L has access to now simply because the mobile platforms have overtaken the desktop/laptop market that is capable of running an S/L viewer. It wouldn't be capable of the full viewer experience but then at the same time, it wouldn't require nearly the same learning curve as those do. It would simply be a gateway to allowing new people to experience the social and dress up experiences many are looking for and from there may motivate some to possibly buy and try it out on a full desktop.

3 hours ago, Drayke Newall said:

If he is talking about discussions about possibilities with the new owners, then I would dare say that ship has sailed as such discussions about improving a service should have been discussed and negotiated before acquisition.

I did wonder at his comment if he meant discussions internal to the Lab or ones with in-world residents, though suspect the former in which case yes, same ol', same ol'. Definition of insanity, trying the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. Remains to be seen whether the new owners will bring in any new insights or open to hearing at least and possibly pushing through ideas from areas the Lab has over the years ignored or put on the back burner.

 

2 hours ago, ChinRey said:

I actually hope for SL's sake you are right and he is wrong. Any changes in SL's profile to attract new users are bound to alienate old users and it's almost guaranteed SL will loose more than it gains that way. It might have been different ten years ago but today I believe the best strategy is to play it safe and not try to rock the boat.

I think sometimes old users need to take a pill and realize that some new ideas are a good thing as the ones they have already had, has brought S/L to the point where it is no longer attractive to anyone not already in S/L. Chic's point about Tyche Sheperd's data of new signups being WAY down just points out a continuing pattern that can only lead to S/L's eventual demise. Only question being whether it is sooner or later.

[ChinRey]

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

I think sometimes old users need to take a pill and realize that some new ideas are a good thing as the ones they have already had, has brought S/L to the point where it is no longer attractive to anyone not already in S/L.

Yes but it's too late for that. LL has been going on for too long piling new "shinies" on top of the old ones without giving an overall development strategy enough consideration. They're usually very concerned about bakwards compatibility but if you really want that, you have to think forwards compatibility: how will this new feature fit future developments? This is how it is with everything in life. Every choice you make limits your future opportuinties and if you're not careful, you'll soon end up forced down a path you'd rather not want to go.

And there's another equally important factor for retaining established users too, familiarity. The user interface is a train wreck, a textbook example how not to do it. (Firestorm and most other TPVs are even worse than the official viewer there but that's forgiveable - you don't don't really have the rigth to expect the same sleek professionalism from open source software maintained by unpaid volunteers.) But as bad as it is, it's still the best option for people who are used to it. They know where the functions they need are hidden and if you start cleaning it up, they'll get lost and frustrated.

 

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

Chic's point about Tyche Sheperd's data of new signups being WAY down just points out a continuing pattern that can only lead to S/L's eventual demise. Only question being whether it is sooner or later.

I'm fairly sure it's later. Fortunately Second Life still has a lot of momentum from the past. We should also expect to see quite a few old.times returning now, I think that trend has already started, and it should help.

For those interested, new signups according to Tyche Sheperd for the first 10 months of:

• 2018: 3,891,041
• 2019: 3,372,739
• 2020: c. 3,046,839

Sheperd doesn't have data after 21st October 2020 that's why I only include the first ten months of each year and why the 2020 figure is approximate. If we stipulate the figures from the last two months of 2020:

• 2018 (whole year): 4,698,143
• 2019 (whole year): 4,131,167
• 2020 (whole year stipulated): < 3,450,000

Average per month:

• 2018: 391,512
• 2019: 344,264
• 2020: c. 305,000

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by ChinRey

[Arielle Popstar]

7 hours ago, ChinRey said:

Yes but it's too late for that. LL has been going on for too long piling new "shinies" on top of the old ones without giving an overall development strategy enough consideration. They're usually very concerned about bakwards compatibility but if you really want that, you have to think forwards compatibility: how will this new feature fit future developments? This is how it is with everything in life. Every choice you make limits your future opportuinties and if you're not careful, you'll soon end up forced down a path you'd rather not want to go.

And there's another equally important factor for retaining established users too, familiarity. The user interface is a train wreck, a textbook example how not to do it. (Firestorm and most other TPVs are even worse than the official viewer there but that's forgiveable - you don't don't really have the rigth to expect the same sleek professionalism from open source software maintained by unpaid volunteers.) But as bad as it is, it's still the best option for people who are used to it. They know where the functions they need are hidden and if you start cleaning it up, they'll get lost and frustrated.

 

I'm fairly sure it's later. Fortunately Second Life still has a lot of momentum from the past. We should also expect to see quite a few old.times returning now, I think that trend has already started, and it should help.

For those interested, new signups according to Tyche Sheperd for the first 10 months of:

• 2018: 3,891,041
• 2019: 3,372,739
• 2020: c. 3,046,839

Sheperd doesn't have data after 21st October 2020 that's why I only include the first ten months of each year and why the 2020 figure is approximate. If we stipulate the figures from the last two months of 2020:

• 2018 (whole year): 4,698,143
• 2019 (whole year): 4,131,167
• 2020 (whole year stipulated): < 3,450,000

Average per month:

• 2018: 391,512
• 2019: 344,264
• 2020: c. 305,000

 

Well graphical viewers for Mobile platforms should have no effect on backward or future compatibility other than if the Lab would finally settle on whether to use Vulkan renderer as has been brought up a few times. No doubt there are other features that can be brought in that similarly would not have too much impact  and besides, it does beg the question of how far back the backward compatibility should extend.

As to the viewer, I would actually prefer the official one to be more like Firestorm and I think most in S/L would agree with that. Combined with the professionalism of the Firestorm support team, the official one is the one that needs a lot of work to come to the same level of sleek professionalism.  Easily accessible support in general would be something the Lab could come up a lot higher in for that matter. That would likely result in better new user retention.

 

Quote

 

For those interested, new signups according to Tyche Sheperd for the first 10 months of:

• 2018: 3,891,041
• 2019: 3,372,739
• 2020: c. 3,046,839

Sheperd doesn't have data after 21st October 2020 that's why I only include the first ten months of each year and why the 2020 figure is approximate. If we stipulate the figures from the last two months of 2020:

• 2018 (whole year): 4,698,143
• 2019 (whole year): 4,131,167
• 2020 (whole year stipulated): < 3,450,000

Average per month:

• 2018: 391,512
• 2019: 344,264
• 2020: c. 305,000

 

• Those numbers look really off. I did see that over on Inara Pey's blog too so not questioning your accuracy but seriously, where the heck are these 350k + new users every month? The New User Registrations from https://vwinformation.com/ look much more realistic and show a strong downward slide until they stopped reporting in April of 2020.

[ChinRey]

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

Those numbers look really off. I did see that over on Inara Pey's blog too so not questioning your accuracy but seriously, where the heck are these 350k + new users every month?

I do actually see a few newcomers and even more new accounts with profiles saying things like "Not new to SL, starting over again with a new account". But most of them are "mayflies" of course. If we stipulate that there are 4 million new accounts in a year and that they on average stay for ten minutes before they leave for good, there'll be less than a hundred of them in SL at any given time.

  

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

The New User Registrations from https://vwinformation.com/ look much more realistic and show a strong downward slide until they stopped reporting in April of 2020.

Tyche Sheperd's data show a strong downward slide too even though it's a little bit obscured.

Edit: Looking at the vwinformation data, it seems to be the number of users their bots have observed in SL and that is a very different number. Many people who sign up for a new account never actually get around to log on with it and most of those who do log in never make it out of whatever welcome region they are dumped into before they guiat for good.

Edited January 9, 2021 by ChinRey

[Drayke Newall]

14 hours ago, ChinRey said:

I actually hope for SL's sake you are right and he is wrong. Any changes in SL's profile to attract new users are bound to alienate old users and it's almost guaranteed SL will loose more than it gains that way. It might have been different ten years ago but today I believe the best strategy is to play it safe and not try to rock the boat.

Whilst I get where you are coming from, I do disagree. There is still far more to gain from updating systems against the status quo than keeping it stagnant. Alienating some existing users is bound to happen, it is always the case with any platform. LL's latest EEP feature probably alienated existing users but probably gained far more users. That said you must remember doing nothing (or taking to long) also alienates the existing userbase. Just need to look at the concurrency stats to see that before COVID and now after it is going down. 2019 it went down from its peak of around 46k to 38k on a good day. For example:

• New 3D viewer for mobile. Will this alienate existing users or will it bring in new users over a text based only client? It is most definitely the later as existing users will be happy either way or even without it. That said LL keep the status quo and do the simpler course and do a basic text client that will not bring in new users and isn't really something existing users want or will use.
• Update to the default avatar to at least keep up with current trends of mesh bodies etc (i.e. give it more polygons to look smoother, correct its outdated and wrong shapes, make the head actually look like a basic form of creator made heads). Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update viewer to a new UI designed professionally to be user friendly. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update default animations to bento ones and include things like auto swim, AO selector etc in viewer. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update the terrain editing system to allow for smoother land editing with greater polygon density (but still optimised) as well as more texture height zones and materials. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update creator scripting engine to allow for far more versatility to the things that can be done in SL. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update the marketplace UI (2009 wants its theme back). Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update the chat system (yes even with emojis). Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase. If it will see existing user decline make it a togglable option.
• Update to inventory sorting, filtering, labelling etc. Allow users to change an item or folders icon to something meaningful. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Update to the inworld creation system to allow basic mesh creation. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Fix bugs that are still labelled as unresolved in Jira after 10 years. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Allow inworld animation creation. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Make MP part of the UI (like a pop out side bar) so it is simpler to access than waiting for a webpage to load within an already slow viewer. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.
• Actually show on their website a roadmap outlining features and fixes they intend to implement over the year. Blog updates for such things are out this is an example of what LL need on their website: Roadmap : Squad – Communicate. Coordinate. Conquer. (joinsquad.com) . Show the world that Second Life is still evolving. Remove Second Life's stigma that it is outdated by showing that huge features are planned over the year or next but not in a blog post.
• I could go on and on and on.

There are many things LL can do that will not alienate the existing userbase all the while bring in new users and retain them and existing users. Whilst yes it may rock the boat it will in a good way and not by that much. When it all comes down to it, existing users must understand that if they want to remain existing users and not see SL decline as data is showing, then they have to make concessions for the greater good.

Whilst yes SL is not a game, it can learn a few things from other game developers. Do you think WoW would still be the largest played MMO if it had not broken their mechanics its existing userbase was used to? No they broke them and even completely changed the entire world from the start destroying their whole storyline at the beginning. Yet WoW after 17 years is still the top MMO in the world primarily due to it breaking those mechanics, starting storyline and graphics to bring in new users after it was suffering subscription loss for not doing anything new.

:EDIT:

Also just look at Second Life's website homepage. What exactly does that homepage tell you about second life, what it has to offer, what you can do? A homepage for a website for Second Life should show in detail at first glace what can be done in the world. All it has a scrolling image section (old mechanic) showing VERY basically what SL is with then lots and lots of click links of Learn More to get more detail. This kind of design is out, it shows nothing to perspective users what to expect. It doesn't get them excited. 

Compare SL website to this game website: The Acclaimed MMORPG | Black Desert Online It shows a video auto playing what it looks like (SL could have a machinima playing). It shows Latest News development wise. What is happening all on the homepage. No hidden blog posts for news like SL does. It shows its main features at a glance and even without clicking the links you can tell what it is. It shows people you can play dynamically (SL could show what avatars are available at start, quick select and sign-up).

Why isn't there a section on the main page highlighting the worlds largest 3D virtual world marketplace with a link or scrolling products of what is available.

Why isn't there a map on the homepage showing how vast second life is?

Everything about Second Life even its advertising, website, marketplace, viewer etc screams "UPDATE ME".

13 hours ago, JanuarySwan said:

 How can avatars get more complicated than they are now?

If there is one thing I have learnt since I started SL in 2004 it is to not put anything past creators to not complicate things further. Additionally complexity does not necessarily mean just the avatar itself. The more options that are created the more complexity there is for not only new users but also creators.

Edited January 9, 2021 by Drayke Newall

[Chic Aeon]

1 hour ago, Arielle Popstar said:

where the heck are these 350k + new users every month?

Those numbers on the screenshot are NEW REGISTRATIONS only. 

 

The people registering need not STAY or BUY or become PREMIUM. They just needed to fill in a few lines on a form and agree to a TOS that they most likely didn't read.  Registered users compared to folks that stayed around after 30 days has ALWAYS been (this by LL's comments) abysmal and has always been something that needed to be addressed and was worked on often.

 

While I don't "know" I suspect that even the registered user number was especially low in 2020  because LL knew they were selling and put their energies into making that sale go through, not on trying -- yet again -- to get more folks in and hopefully STAYING. 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Chic Aeon
adding info

[ChinRey]

7 minutes ago, Drayke Newall said:

Whilst I get where you are coming from, I do disagree. There is still far more to gain from updating systems against the status quo than keeping it stagnant.

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear. I didn't intend to say LL shouldn't update SL at all but the updates should be more focused on keeping the current users happy than try to chase new ones.

18 minutes ago, Drayke Newall said:

LL's latest EEP feature probably alienated existing users but probably gained far more users.

I can't imagine any new user would even know what EEP is or what difference it makes. That one is most definitely an update for oldtimers rather than for newcomers. Whether it was a succesful one is still open to debate of course.

20 minutes ago, Drayke Newall said:

New 3D viewer for mobile. Will this alienate existing users or will it bring in new users over a text based only client?

I dont' think it'll bring many new users. Screen size alone is a huge limiting factor.

22 minutes ago, Drayke Newall said:

Update to the default avatar to at least keep up with current trends of mesh bodies etc (i.e. give it more polygons to look smoother, correct its outdated and wrong shapes, make the head actually look like a basic form of creator made heads). Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.

Oh, I absolutely agree. This would be a great update both for new and old users. Except for the mesh head part, that would be a downgrade, not and upgrade. There's certainly room for improvement of the system head but even so, set those sliders right, be a little bit careful when you choose skin and it still looks significantly better than any current mesh head.

An avatar upgrade is not going to happen though, if only because it would kill the mesh body market. That's the main income for many well established merchants and it also gives a significant revenue stream to LL itself. Linden Lab shuld have upgraded the avatar before they launched fitted mesh and I still can't udnerstand how they could possibly overlook something as obvious as that.

 

37 minutes ago, Drayke Newall said:

Update to the inworld creation system to allow basic mesh creation. Existing and new users will benefit and will not see loss to existing userbase.

No, no, no, no, NO!!!!

There is a reason why no game/vw engine has anything like that and a good reason too. Upgrade the inworld building tools, yes, but not with polylist mesh or for CSG based solution.

As for the rest of the list; yes, those are the kind of "old user focused" upgrades I think LL should go for.

[Rowan Amore]

19 minutes ago, ChinRey said:

There's certainly room for improvement of the system head but even so, set those sliders right, be a little bit careful when you choose skin and it still looks significantly better than any current mesh head.

I'm going to guess that the majority of old and new users will disagree with your significantly better assessment.   Although, a system head can be made to look quite nice, you're basically comparing apples to oranges.  Unless you're talking specifically about the starter mesh avatars LL provides.

Edited January 9, 2021 by RowanMinx

[ChinRey]

47 minutes ago, RowanMinx said:

I'm going to guess that the majority of old and new users will disagree with your significantly better assessment.

Well, let me put it this way. If my avatar is at a place with several people around and some lovesick stranger pops in, my avatar is nearly always the first one to be hit on.

I'm only partly joking here. Although I like them to look decent, my avatars are not made to be particularly "sexy", some of them don't even have mesh bodies. There are always far more fashionable and generally better looking female alts around. And more to the point, this is something that only started after everybody else began using mesh heads and it was a very, very noticeable change. So, if you want to be attractive to 'dem guys in SL, the first thing you need to do is ditch your mesh head. There's no doubt about that.

But of course, most people in SL dress up for themselves, not for others, and that means what really matters is what you like yourself. There's no right or wrong there of course.

However, my post was a reaction to changing the system head to be more like the mesh heads on the market, not about the visual quality of the heads as such. I believe that although we want as much flexibility as possible, the baseline default look should be as close to an average RL human as possible. that way people have more opportunities to take their SL look in the direction they want rather than the direction the avatar mesh dictates. For that reason at least, taking the system head clsoer to the typical mesh head design is the wrogn thing to do.

Edited January 9, 2021 by ChinRey

[Rowan Amore]

2 minutes ago, ChinRey said:

Well, let me put it this way. If my avatar is at a place with several people around and some lovesick stranger pops in, my avatar is nearly always the first one to be hit on.

I'm only partly joking here. Although I like them to look decent, my avatars are not made to be particularly "sexy", some of them don't even have mesh bodies. There are always far more fashionable and generally better looking female alts around. And more to the point, this is something that only started after everybody else began using mesh heads and it was a very, very noticeable change. So, if you want to be attractive to 'dem guys in SL, the first thing you need to do is ditch your mesh head. There's no doubt about that.

But of course, most people in SL dress up for themselves, not for others, and that means what really matters is what you like yourself. There's no right or wrong ther e of course.

No disrespect intended but that love sick stranger is going to probably hit up the girl who perhaps looks less knowledgeable about SL (the new person look) and generally an easier pick up.  I'd rather any love sick person just pass me by anyway.  

When I see a male who has been in SL any amount of time and hasn't updated much of anything and he's hitting on women left and right, he's not looking for love but the slex.  He looks around and sees a woman who hasn't updated a may assume the same...she's just logging in to hook up.  I'm not saying this applies to everyone but I do a LOT of people watching at adult places and that is what I see.

I do agree that people should do as they please, look however they choose.  I'm just disagreeing with your assessment that most men prefer women without mesh heads.