Is the PC becoming extinct and taking SL with it

[Boudicca Littlebird]

Face book have had to issue a profits warning, they say the trend of people moving from PC's to phones has been faster that they imagined, and they can not fill a phone screen with the same amount of adds.

I to have noticed many people stop using PC's and use phones for every thing, do you think this a fad? Or do you think this is a real change? SL does not work well on a phone, could this be the reason the lindens are going to do other things and that those other things are small screen related?

How many think as I do, I do feel a change coming.

[Dilbert Dilweg]

Phones are great for 2D applications... Facebook is boring 2D

I dont see phones running high graphic games any time soon. with a small graphics screen you wont be seeing any major gaming

 Personally I see the phone as a good supliment for the PC on the go

[Griffin Ceawlin]

PCs becoming obsolete and phones taking their place? I can't imagine. I could live without my smartphone. My PCs they'll have to pry from my cold dead hands.

[Bree Giffen]

Honestly, phones are just too limited to ever replace computers. The only way for phones to ever replace computers is to turn into computers themselves.

[Irene Muni]

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Boudicca Littlebird wrote:

 

I to have noticed many people stop using PC's and use phones for every thing,

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If these people only use phones, I'm sure they don't use Word, Excel, Photoshop (or similar software) as usual tools in their jobs or personal life. I can't imagine my RL job/life wirting documents in a phone or using Excel in a phone during 3 hours.

[Bouttime Whybrow]

try running photoshop on a phone.

PCs are not going anywhere.

facebook will be gone long before the PC.

[Orca Flotta]

There's a similar discussion going on over at NWN. Of course that boxy old computer doodad isn't as sexy as your tablets and smartphones and isn't the hottest seller anymore. BUT (notice that big but?) SL isn't Facebook, SL isn't a social network, SL uses gaming technology! And to play games and see them in good resolution you need a good big old screen and a sound system and some powerful parts like gpu and cpu and lots of RAM. Only since my much too expensive lappy broke and I settled for a much cheaper yet much more powerful desktop, SL is really giving me joy.

If I want to repair my car I need a set of good tools for the job. If I want to play reasonably in SL I need a set of good tools for that that as well. I wouldn't mow my lawn with a nail clipper, so why would I play SL on a smartphone?

That's the facts.

What everybody decides to make of those facts is an individual decision. Maybe most will say "Naaaaw, feck it!" and say goodbye to their PC and SL or maybe some smart ppl will say "Yes! Me want!" and stick with their big box and SL. Maybe ppl will clue up and notice they only need a mobile computer (or a tablet or a smartphone) 1% of the time and for the measly rest of 99% their machine willl just sit on a desk.

And to be honest I prefer a 24" screen, a comfy sized keyboard/mouse and well-sounding hifi speakers on my desk and a powerful and indestructible and easy to upgrade heavy machine below the desk. For vacations I can still use a laptop, but I'll use it only then.

And all those mobile users, well, let them go, let them disappear and play facebook. SL is a virtual world, one of the most complicated things in computing. SL isn't for everyone, SL isn't mainstream. In fact it's far from mainstream. If 99% of the computer using population thinks SLers are freaks and file us in the gamer corner ... pffft, so be it!

 

 

 

[Alazarin Mondrian]

Long answer: Phones and tablet computing may eventually take over the casual web browsing / email / portable end of the computer arena but until tablets come with the computing power and flexibility of today's mid-range to high-end PC's I don't see it happening. Alot of apps [both professional and recreational] require too much computing power to achieve an acceptable level of functionality on phone / tablet platforms. Second Life is one such app. The only way I see it ever working acceptably on such low-end platforms would be cloud-style server-side rendering.

 

Short answer: No.

[Qie Niangao]

Although the PC isn't "becoming extinct", it certainly seems to be losing the competition for people's time.

Ever more people are doing evre more "information tasks" untethered to their big, cushy PCs, making-do with smartphones and tablets, despite huge disadvantages of those devices, in exchange for constant availability everywhere.

Will that hurt SL? Yeah, probably. People will spend more time on whatever games/apps/platforms are fun to use from portable devices and less time in front of 3D worlds and anything else that isn't much fun except on PCs.

It will also change the demographics of SL users, as younger and more mobile people are (even more) drawn elsewhere.

[Boudicca Littlebird]

Hi.

For the office I agree, PC's have a place, but as time goes on so office machines become part of a cloud, making Pc's terminals so a cheaper machine can be used, as if the PC's going back to a basic terminal, more and more companies are stopping workers from doing things like play games, but what people have at home is changing, I have 3 grown up children one the oldest has never had a laptop, only the most modern phone, 2 had lap tops, neither were replaced when they broke down, one went over to the phone and the other got one of these tablets, none are interested in SL and see it as something the old and lonely do, which seems to be very different from just 5 years ago when people thought the virtual world was the way we would all do our shopping.

These are just my experiences lately.

[WADE1 Jya]

To the OP: My answer is yes. I know it is only a matter of time, the PC is dying. Obvious facts are obvious.

Hopefully, SL continues to draw a little niche crowd for sometime well into the future. It would be a shame to see it die. Technology tends to distribute very unevenly, especially in a weak economy many people just can't afford the latest devices, so SL could last quite a long time for this reason.

Perhaps, like how certain console gamers keep rediscovering the fun of old platforms, SL will always have a certain set of fans.

Alternatively, there was talk from Linden Lab of getting SL onto mobile, which would be a brilliant move, but lately that talk faded away.

So, they're other working on it supersecretly :catvery-happy: or gave up :catsad: Realistically, I think they gave up.

BTW somebody here said phones only do 2D. Well... that's just incorrect, the newest phones/tablets, and even older devices (like iphone 3G) can handle 3D quite well. You just have to know how to work within the parameters of the device. The parameters are very strict and can even seem at times to be impossible. Most developers, it seems, can't manage 3D yet, so they fall back on 2D which is why 2D is status quo.

[PeterCanessa Oh]

Hi.For the office I agree, PC's have a place, but as time goes on so office machines become part of a cloud, making Pc's terminals so a cheaper machine can be used, as if the PC's going back to a basic terminal, more and more companies are stopping workers from doing things like play games, but what people have at home is changing, I have 3 grown up children one the oldest has never had a laptop, only the most modern phone, 2 had lap tops, neither were replaced when they broke down, one went over to the phone and the other got one of these tablets, none are interested in SL and see it as something the old and lonely do, which seems to be very different from just 5 years ago when people thought the virtual world was the way we would all do our shopping.These are just my experiences lately.

 

[Gah!  I really messed-up this post.  Sorry about the odd format above.]

While I understand what you're saying you should remember that the "PC" IS the cheap option.  I'm assuming we mean 'desktop' format generally and include Macs, etc.  Desktops are cheaper than comparable laptops because you don't need components optimised for small size, light weight and low power.  Desktops are more reliable than comparable laptops because they are made from more robust components and have better cooling, etc.  Desktops are easier and cheaper to repair and/or upgrade when it is needed because they are built with that in mind.  So much for laptops.

There are no comparable tablets, phones, watches or other gadgets and toys.

But you suggest things move to the cloud and desktops become dumb-terminals.  That's an interesting idea except that it means a constant internet connection is required.  Data-transfer is slower.  I can't protect my data so well.  I rely on someone else's server somewhere in cyberspace.  Apart from all that, bandwidth is probably more expensive than the hard-drive it would take to store it locally.  Cloud processing on the other hand, I just don't see taking-off.  It really doesn't work very well on a single company's network (eg; using things like Citrix) because it's more trouble than it's worth.  You still need the processing-power somewhere so the only advantage to dumb-terminals is they make the network-support peoples' jobs easier.  That doesn't apply in home situations.

So what remains is the simple question - do people need comparable computers at all?  Clearly the answer is no, for all those that only use the things that gadgets can do. For the rest of us a big screen, proper keyboard, good speakers, fast DVD re-writer and enough processing-power to design, render and animate 3d, browse the web, run server-software and write forum posts all at the same time will stay a requirement.  What a 'desktop' is will continue to change and no doubt it will change a lot because of the movement of low-end users to gadgets.  That'll just mean 'desktop' is an even better solution for the rest of us.

@ Wade - apparently the 'fact' of the death of the PC is only 'obvious' to you.  Would you care to elaborate?

[Ann Otoole]

facebook's primary demographic is idiots that have no clue what they are doing by posting their lives on the internet. These are the core consumers television marketing targets and orders them they must buy and use a phone for everything (to get everyone on costly data plans).

So of course facebook is worried. Google is likely to get hurt too and both be extinct in 10 years.

Meanwhile gamers will still use PCs because phones and ipads are garbage for the consumer masses that spend hours playing angry birds and watching commercials.

[Penny Patton]

PCs have been dying since  at least 1993. 

 

You have to take a lot of factors into consideration. First, how many people extensively use their PCs for things like videogames, Second Life, high end applications, things that cannot be done easily on a tablet/phone?

 How many people have a PC mainly for browsing the web and simple tasks easily accomplished with phones and tablets?

 To that extent, the PC market may very well dwindle.

 But then you also need to take into account, how many people have PCs and phones, who are increasingly using phones and tablets for the things they are best suited towards, while still very happy to keep a PC around for the tasks tablets and phones just aren't up to?

 

 And that has nothing to do with power, it has everything to do with form factor. No matter how powerful phones and tablets get, unless there is a major leap in innovation regarding input, we will never be using phones/tablets for 3D modelling, non-casual gaming, graphics editing, . Tablets and phones are also more limited for things like word processing, unless you carry around a keyboard that works with them.

 

 If and when that changes, it won't be a bad thing because we'll be able to do all the things we currently do on PCs on phones/tablets, but that's simply not likely for the foreseeable future. This is why "are PCs dying and taking X with them?" the wrong question. The question should be, "The market is changing, how will this affect development of certain applications?"

 Phones/tablets have a more convenient form factor for every day use. People can carry them around in their pockets, purses or book bags even more easily than laptops. They're useful for many functions, at least as good sometimes better than PCs for simple tasks like reading books, surfing websites, checking facebook, so of course people developing for those kinds of applications will do better to aim for the mobile market.

 

 Gamers, artists, programmers, many writers, musicians, web designers, etcetera will continue to invest in (often high-end) computers. So the market may become smaller, which could drive up costs and reduce profits, but it's not yet heading towards extinction.

[PeterCanessa Oh]

What Penny said.  I wish I'd put it like that.  I think it's a matter of form dictates function, or will when people stop just treating them as fashion accessories and think what they're getting for their money.

Desktops are 'standard'.  Laptops are expensive, fragile, under-powered desktops.  If you need 'real' applications and portability but don't need full-size or power laptops are a good choice.  Phones are pocket-sized portability.  If you only need messaging, streaming and mini-apps there's nothing more convenient.

Tablets are somewhere in-between and I can't see the point of them myself (yet).  Unless I need portability I use a desktop.  If I need a portable computer I use a laptop and if I just want all-out convenience I use a phone.  Tablets seem to be the worst of both worlds with none of the benefits (to me).

[Pussycat Catnap]

Here's what I said just yesterday to this on the nwn blog, re tablet. Same applies regarding phones, tablets are just widescreen phones without the phone...

"Never mind desktops, even laptops are beginning to look like yesterday's technology. In an age where most internet access is going to be via smartphones and tablets, it's a brave company that will stake its future on a user-base willing to put up with big boxes physically attached to the network."

************ Part I ************

 Hey guyz, guess what, by 1990 we'll all have personal jetpacks. Its a fool who invests in the auto-industry.

Um... no.

Just because tablets are super-hyped-up doesn't mean they worth a darn thing or good for much.

Its crippled tech, being sold as the new shiny. Some consumers are already waking up to the reality that they really don't get much value out of it.

Great toys. Watch videos while driving on the freeway and getting yourself killed - handy for that.

But everything else it does is stuff better done on your cellphone.

Any actual real gaming, office work, study work, art work, and so on - needs a machine with power.

Laptops will kill desktops, and laptops + cellphones will make it obvious that tablets are as useful as a laser disc player or a mood ring.

******* Part II: *******

To add to the above, consider what -did- kill the laser disc player. The DVD player - which is lower resolution compressed video in a smaller format BUT with richer features.

I suspect that in time, we'll have a 3 tiered structure for personal computing:

Laptops. For office, education, and home entertainment system.

eBook readers with video playback and online shopping. The future descendants of the Kindle and Nook.

Smartphones - a phone, with enhanced features for light impact online access.

Either of the second two will likely eventually also kill the 'iPod / MP3 player / low end home stereo system' market (speakers that connect directly to an iPod are already popular).

The laptop might kill the home entertainment market - becoming the mix of a PC, playstation/xBox, a stereo system, a TV reception box (why bother with cable or satellite when you can stream it all from the laptop to a 50" screen on the wall), and a high end stereo system).

As for companies "brave enough" to build an entire entertainment business model around desktops and laptops: the MMO industry, and most of the video game industry - which is a bigger industry than the Movie industry...

Those folks are -NOT- going to roll over and die just because Steve Jobs thought tablets were cooler. The products they provide are too rich and detailed to be able to be run on a low end systems like tablets, and the trend for them has been to push tech ever and ever further into higher requirements, not lighter.

Tablet / Phone video gaming is also thriving - but not at all set to kill the big fish anymore than Karaoke machines killed the recording industry, or perhaps... any more than instant coffee has killed Starbucks.

The kinds of things people play and do on their smartphones are not the things they will want to be their major entertainment. Home computer / console games are killing Hollywood, not FarmVille. FarmVille / Facebook gaming is more likely killing hanging out at a bar or pub.

 

************* Added for today *************

 

The phone isn't enough, and too small.

The tablet tries to be too much, but cripples itself to be unable to even do what it hypes itself for. It is your iPhone on a bigger screen in so many ways... Just not enough boom for what it tried to be.

The Laptop has managed to be everything the desktop was, and can be plugged into a large monitor, and is portable. Real future in this thing.

 

The Kindle / Nook - 'semi-tablets': These have actually carved out a unique new space. They are replacing the paperbook book, not the phone and not the desktop / laptop. But they have just enough added features to do all the basic things that a tablet does better than a laptop. Like quick browing on the road / coffee shop / etc... checking a QVar code you pass by in a mall or public space... watching a short video in low resolution (as oppossed to on your full home entertainment 50+ inch screen). etc...

- This will kill the tablets in time. Ie: Tablets will scale down to compete with KIndles and eReaders. Some will 'scale up' and obtain a real full OS, like windows or Linux or OSX, and become laptops that just lack keyboards... The current model of tablet, amazingly hyped up: the iPad and the Androids... they have no real niche that they are filling, they're a gimmick... so doomed.

 

 

[Clarissa Lowell]

Phones will definitely continue to take off for many types of  uses. But home computers are not going away for a long time. They might change, get smaller, become completely wireless or use solar power, use a hologram for a screen, or even for the keyboard. But people will always have some sort of dedicated platform in their homes.

Except for people on the other side of the digital divide but clearly if they have smart phones we're not talking about them.

[Shelby Silverspar]

Nope, don't think so. Not any faster than any other technology anyway. I see FB becoming extinct before the PC does, going the way of AOL back in the day. SL becoming extinct? Who knows, the sky has been falling for just about as long as it's been up there so your guess is as good as mine.

Extinction and evolution are two sides of the same coin, which have just as much chance of extinction as anything else (coins, I mean). Technology is especially vulnerable to evolution. Marketing uses newer, better, cheaper, faster as its driving force and trends ebb and flow and the best way to drive new trends is to call something extinct then hand you something bright and shiny to replace it with.

Personally, my phone is just a phone and is something I stick in my pocket when I'm going to be away from my PC, which isn't very often. I don't think cloud computing is keeping SL users out of SL. And those who are happy with tablet/phone computing and giving up their PCs probably wouldn't be the 'sl type' anyway. 

[WADE1 Jya]

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PeterCanessa Oh wrote:

@ Wade - apparently the 'fact' of the death of the PC is only 'obvious' to you.  Would you care to elaborate?

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Well just look at what mainstream consumers go for & what's driving tech trends. I get most of my info from closely watching tech trends. Most people don't need a desktop/laptop anymore to do what they do.

If you call being only used for very narrow applications like medical simulation, protein map unfolding, examining what happens in particle accelerator collisions, or anything that chews through incredibly large data sets, etc... alive, the PC might stay alive for a very long time.

As the market narrows more and more, PCs will slowly stop being offered so much & since there is far less demand - prices will trend way up. It's a vicious cycle. They will be out of reach to gamers and resemble more today's 'supercomputer' than a desktop/laptop. Majority of gamers won't care. They'll be satisfied with what a tablet can do as more and more developers catch on to tablet's true capabilities.

Meanwhile tablets/phones will get increasingly powerful and cheaper, more & more resembling today's laptop/desktop in functionality. 3D projection screens will provide larger displays when needed.

At a certain point they basically are today's laptop/desktop only much lighter & smaller. At this point if SL hasn't died yet, I'm sure Lindens will slide it on there, or someone else will, because it will become so simplistic. Eventually the barrier would break down completely.

[Madelaine McMasters]

The switch from stationary to mobile computing has ramifications far and wide. It is not a fad, it is a sea change and it will catch some off guard. Too many people are focusing on the hardware differences between mobile and desk-bound devices. That's not the crux of the matter. What is important is the change that going mobile makes in the way we interact with the rest of the world though our devices.

When we're mobile we can't give the sort of cognitive bandwidth that we can in a quiet room, looking at a big screen. Nielsen just reported that, for the first time ever, we are spending less time watching television in classic manner. The number of households that have a TV has declined for the first time in 20 years as well. These data points are very new, and so may not represent anything lasting, but they've got the attention of a lot of people.

Because we can't bury ourselves in an interface while navigating the real world, tools like SL will be relegated to niches. I think there's a brighter future for augmented reality, where virtual services seamlessly fit themselves into our daily routines. We're seeing the very beginnings of this with location aware applications and natural language interfaces. The future will be about computers adapting to our needs, not our adapting to theirs. Rather than bringing virtual worlds to our desks, it seems we're heading in the direction of bringing our real worlds to larger circles of friends, and virtual tools out into the world with us. We may overload ourselves with shallow connections until we sort through the etiquette we need to manage the deluge of data before us, but we'll get there.

We will still need powerful computers with large screens for many applications, but do we really think we'll still be sitting in chairs in front of glowing screens 100 years from now? It's just a matter of time, but computers as we've known them are on their way to extinction, only to be replaced by computers we don't think of as computers. I don't know if SL will go extinct, but I don't see it thriving in a mobile, cognitve bandwidth limited, social networking future.

After four years of fattening/flattening my ass on a chair while dancing in SL, I can see some benefits to "out and about" computing.

[PeterCanessa Oh]

Noted all that.  As I and others have said, things are always changing.  If that's all you mean then I agree.  Otherwise the day I see the price of a desktop component higher than it's equivalient small-size, low-power laptop/tablet/phone version is the day I'll say the desktop format started to die.  It's simply harder to squeeze the same functionality and performance into a smaller space.  That's why you get more bang per buck from desktops than laptops now.  Economies of scale will help, as you say, but they won't reverse what's possible or practical.

I'd argue that most people buying laptops don't use half their power so the money's wasted anyway.  A sizable amount of the rest don't use them on the move so don't need the portability.  THE desktop market is probably not much bigger than it was in the early - mid 90s.  Everyone else is using them as fashion accessories and will either migrate to more convenient, smaller formats or will find something entirely different to waste their money on instead.

[Coby Foden]

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Penny Patton wrote:

PCs have been dying since  at least 1993.

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Yes, so I have heard too. I guess this quotation is appropriate here:

"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." Mark Twain.

 

[Ceka Cianci]

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Boudicca Littlebird wrote:

Face book have had to issue a profits warning, they say the trend of people moving from PC's to phones has been faster that they imagined, and they can not fill a phone screen with the same amount of adds.

I to have noticed many people stop using PC's and use phones for every thing, do you think this a fad? Or do you think this is a real change? SL does not work well on a phone, could this be the reason the lindens are going to do other things and that those other things are small screen related?

How many think as I do, I do feel a change coming.

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well i wouldn't say they are using them for everything..

people i don't believe are leaving pc's more than it is  people that may have not really had one  had gotten phones..that and people with pc's also getting phones  for things they can do on a phone while they are away from the pc..

there is way to much these phones can't do that a computer can..

if i am at my desk..there is no way i am gonna choose my phone over my computer with a way bigger monitore and bigger keys to do the same thing on a phone..

it would have to be something i can't do on my pc or while i am out runnign around..that or i may have both going at the same time lol

 

 

[PeterCanessa Oh]

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PeterCanessa Oh wrote:

...

I'd argue that most people buying laptops don't use half their power so the money's wasted anyway.  A sizable amount of the rest don't use them on the move so don't need the portability.  THE desktop market is probably not much bigger than it was in the early - mid 90s.  Everyone else is using them as fashion accessories and will either migrate to more convenient, smaller formats or will find something entirely different to waste their money on instead.

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I don't think that paragraph in my last post made sense - sorry about that everyone, I was distracted.  Please read as:

I'd argue that most people buying laptops don't use half their power so the money's wasted anyway.  A sizeable amount of the rest don't use them on the move so don't need the portability.  The people who don't need the power are treating laptops, then phones, then tablets as 'the latest greatest' fashion accessory and it is these people who will continue to move away from the desktop format.  There is, however, a genuine market for desktops (people whose priorities are power, screen and/or keyboard) and a genuine market for laptops (people whose priorities are mobile computing power).  The fashionistas will sooner or later find something completely different to waste their money on and the computer market will be back to normal.

[Clarissa Lowell]

I didn't understand most of what you said, although it sounded brilliant. But this part:

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Madelaine McMasters wrote:

When we're mobile we can't give the sort of cognitive bandwidth that we can in a quiet room, looking at a big screen.

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That's what I love about it. Especially if the room is poorly lit. Not all of us want to be out in the big noisy world or make it even more connected, (so it gets even bigger), or more noisy. It sounds great for the extroverts but I don't even want a cell phone at all.

No one views 'that electronic thing that has moving entertainment on it - the forum won't let me type the name of that thing after the word' in the old way any more because of DVR but most still do have 'that thing people view'. I don't know anyone that doesn't, not in real life. I know of someone in SL who doesn't. But you can watch 'entertainment video' on computer too and those two are combining. It doesn't sound to me like the home computer will go away it will just combine with other things. If I understood your post.

PS maybe the world should work on forum software first. Most message board communities could use a lot of improvement in programming or in moderating methods. Either most are too strict or not strict enough. Or the policies for spammers hurt everyone else. I got a formatting error message when I didn't use anything but the normal format. Then I got a flood alert when I tried to resend this post. Now I have to wait more than 3600 seconds or it sends another flood alert. Can't they just do a good captcha??  Lol. Sorry mods but 3600 seconds between post? Do you know how fast most people type??? (LOL and now a random phrase is being caught up and I have to remove that. But I'll wait another 3600 seconds, so I don't get yet another flood alert...!)