Scientific Data on Covid

[Selene Gregoire]

Not scientific data per se but interesting nonetheless.

COVID-19 Poll: Sentiments differ by party about concern on frequenting public spaces

[kali Wylder]

3 hours ago, Selene Gregoire said:

I should have never let him get away.

yeah, I kinda feel the same way about my high school sweetheart too. Except  that I really like who I am now and I think I needed to make all those mistakes to get here. But he was a keeper, it's just that the time was wrong. Suddenly I feel compelled to play this:

 

[Theresa Tennyson]

On 4/2/2020 at 1:29 PM, ItHadToComeToThis said:

So you believe entertainment / news TV and potential fringe conspiracy theories over the official agencies. Good to know

You seem to be implying that there is a difference between the phrase highlighted in red and the one highlighted in blue currently.

[Nalates Urriah]

California is claiming 237 deaths and 10,701 infected as of today. As of 4/2 (latest hardcopy reporting) 203 deaths with 9,191 infected, 1,922 hospitalized with confirmed Covid - 816 in ICU, and 3,481 hospitalized suspected Covid -618 ICU. (Ref - updates daily). California's population in 2019 is 39.6 million +/- growing. Make the math easy and round to 40 million.

203 deaths is 5.07 per million or 0.0005075%.   With (1,922 + 3,418 = ) 5,403 hospitalized of 9,191 infected that gives us 58.8% of infected going into hospital. Or 5,403 of 40 million which is 0.0135% or 135 per million. If you compare these numbers to US and World numbers you'll likely notice inconsistencies.

You'll also see alternative media reports of people from coroner's offices and hospitals complaining that deaths with Covid and deaths from Covid are all being counted as a Covid death for reporting. The reporting on how many are infected is known to be suffering from Selection Bias. If you haven't looked that and figured out what it means... then it is easy for you to misinterpret the reporting numbers.

California has 3,651 traffic deaths per year. 

CA Leading Causes of Death, 2017	Deaths
Heart Disease	62,797
Cancer	59,516
Stroke	16,355
Alzheimer’s Disease	16,238
Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases	13,881
Accidents	13,840
Diabetes	9,595
Influenza/Pneumonia	6,340
Hypertension	5,596
Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis	5,325

Covid-19 is technically referred to as SARS-CoV-2. A SARS reassortment. In many ways these are nearly identical viruses. Of the 300+ million Americans 6 million (2%) caught the SARS flu. Of those 300,000 (5% of the infected) were hospitalized and 17,000 died (5.6% of the hospitalized). 

Are you noticing how out of proportion this reaction and predictions are to this Covid flu is to all previous flues and other life-taking diseases?

Are you noticing the difference in what is actually said in the White House Covid briefings each day and what is reported in mainstream media? Are you noticing the difference in what alternative news, local doctors, and other sources are reporting verses the mainstream?

Edited April 3, 2020 by Nalates Urriah

[Pamela Galli]

Just talking or breathing may spread it.
 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-04-04T07%3A50%3A05&utm_source=twCNN

[Selene Gregoire]

6 hours ago, Pamela Galli said:

Just talking or breathing may spread it.
 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-04-04T07%3A50%3A05&utm_source=twCNN

You think people panicked with the toilet paper bs, this is a damn good way to start a stampede and cause even more deaths as well as injury. JFHC.

https://www.toptenz.net/10-deadliest-human-stampedes.php

From the article Pam posted:

Quote

"If you generate an aerosol of the virus with no circulation in a room, it's conceivable that if you walk through later, you could inhale the virus," Fineberg said. "But if you're outside, the breeze will likely disperse it."

Helloooo. Most windows open to allow circulation... and there are these wonderful inventions called fans. Box fans fit nicely into windows. Ceiling fans are wonderful. And then there are those old homes that were built with attic fans. A bit noisy but, man, do they move the air. Even heat and air units have fan only modes to circulate the air. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Selene Gregoire

[Pamela Galli]

Right now I feel safer outside, but when it’s 110 I may feel inside is not that bad.

[Scylla Rhiadra]

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's America continues its transformation into international pariah and global "selfish and xenophobic old man on porch muttering about foreigners."

In 1940, when Britain and the Commonwealth (including Canada) stood alone against the Axis Powers, FDR's America stood up to be counted, and threw its industrial and economic power behind its most important international allies and friends, via the Lend-Lease Act.

80 years later, "allies" and "friends" of the US are in some peril of becoming endangered species.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52161995

[FairreLilette]

8 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's America continues its transformation into international pariah and global "selfish and xenophobic old man on porch muttering about foreigners."

In 1940, when Britain and the Commonwealth (including Canada) stood alone against the Axis Powers, FDR's America stood up to be counted, and threw its industrial and economic power behind its most important international allies and friends, via the Lend-Lease Act.

80 years later, "allies" and "friends" of the US are in some peril of becoming endangered species.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52161995

That's not all "the Donald" said.  He told 3M he wants all the masks, as in all.  3M said "no" to the President.  I found it a very peculiar demand on 3M.   

[Scylla Rhiadra]

Just now, FairreLilette said:

That's not all "the Donald" said.  He told 3M he wants all the masks, as in all.  3M said "no" to the President.  I found it a very peculiar demand on 3M.   

Especially as, apparently, only about a third of the masks that 3M makes are produced in the States. It appears to be fine to have foreign workers and factories producing PPE that are then reserved solely for American use.

Trudeau has hinted that Canada has lots of ways to retaliate -- cross-border trade is vital, not merely for the economy, but for the anti-pandemic measures of both countries. For instance, we have thousands of Canadian nurses who cross the border to work in US hospitals.

I hope he chooses not to retaliate. It'd be nice if someone acted like a grownup here.

[FairreLilette]

4 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Especially as, apparently, only about a third of the masks that 3M makes are produced in the States. It appears to be fine to have foreign workers and factories producing PPE that are then reserved solely for American use.

Trudeau has hinted that Canada has lots of ways to retaliate -- cross-border trade is vital, not merely for the economy, but for the anti-pandemic measures of both countries. For instance, we have thousands of Canadian nurses who cross the border to work in US hospitals.

I hope he chooses not to retaliate. It'd be nice if someone acted like a grownup here.

You know Scylla, I'm going out on a limb here but it was quite appalling that the President would make such a demand.   It made me even wonder if he's stepping into impeachable territory here and that is certainly something Americans do not need at this time.  I mean that demand makes it seem like he's acting like a Mafia boss not a President.  

I am quite appalled by this demand and I did wonder who is running this country because it doesn't seem like something an American President would do ever.   

[Theresa Tennyson]

19 hours ago, Nalates Urriah said:

 

 

Covid-19 is technically referred to as SARS-CoV-2. A SARS reassortment. In many ways these are nearly identical viruses. Of the 300+ million Americans 6 million (2%) caught the SARS flu. Of those 300,000 (5% of the infected) were hospitalized and 17,000 died (5.6% of the hospitalized). 

Are you noticing how out of proportion this reaction and predictions are to this Covid flu is to all previous flues and other life-taking diseases?

Are you noticing the difference in what is actually said in the White House Covid briefings each day and what is reported in mainstream media? Are you noticing the difference in what alternative news, local doctors, and other sources are reporting verses the mainstream?

SARS was another coronavirus (i.e. a virus shaped like ball,) which is not the same as an influenza virus.

Your numbers on SARS are spectacularly wrong - the actual number of Americans who caught SARS "flu" was 27. Not 27,000 or anything like that - twenty-seven.

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/

If what you said is what you get from your alternative news sources...

 

[Scylla Rhiadra]

23 minutes ago, FairreLilette said:

You know Scylla, I'm going out on a limb here but it was quite appalling that the President would make such a demand.   It made me even wonder if he's stepping into impeachable territory here and that is certainly something Americans do not need at this time.  I mean that demand makes it seem like he's acting like a Mafia boss not a President.  

I am quite appalled by this demand and I did wonder who is running this country because it doesn't seem like something an American President would do ever.   

Oh, I think he's empowered by the Defence Production Act to do it . . . although how a 70 year old law might, in practical terms, apply to multinational conglomerates that just happen to be headquartered in the States is an interesting question.

Trudeau has just said that he's not looking to retaliate:

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he plans to talk to U.S. President Donald Trump about White House orders to Minnesota-based 3M to stop exporting its surgical-grade face masks. Trudeau says he is not looking at counter-measures against this move by the U.S., but rather he believes the countries can come to a diplomatic solution."

[Alwin Alcott]

50 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

In 1940, when Britain and the Commonwealth (including Canada) stood alone against the Axis Powers, FDR's America stood up to be counted, and threw its industrial and economic power behind its most important international allies and friends, via the Lend-Lease Act.

the LLact was march 1941
the USA didnt step into WW2 earlier than after Pearly Harbour dec 11 '41
till that time the USA was official "neutral"

[FairreLilette]

2 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Oh, I think he's empowered by the Defence Production Act to do it . . . although how a 70 year old law might, in practical terms, apply to multinational conglomerates that just happen to be headquartered in the States is an interesting question.

Trudeau has just said that he's not looking to retaliate:

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he plans to talk to U.S. President Donald Trump about White House orders to Minnesota-based 3M to stop exporting its surgical-grade face masks. Trudeau says he is not looking at counter-measures against this move by the U.S., but rather he believes the countries can come to a diplomatic solution."

Well, somebody needs to talk to him that's for sure and start talking right quick as, me, an American might say because the last thing all of this world including us Americans need at this time is an impeachable offense.  

 

[Scylla Rhiadra]

1 minute ago, Alwin Alcott said:

the LLact was march 1941
the USA didnt step into WW2 earlier than after Pearly Harbour dec 11 '41
till that time the USA was official "neutral"

You are correct about the exact date of the LL Act; however, FDR had already signaled his intentions of supporting Britain and the Commonwealth. He first called America the "Arsenal of Democracy" in December of 1940, and before that had already taken steps to provide Britain with assistance, most notably through the leasing of destroyers in exchange for naval bases. In fact, the first steps in supporting Britain financially date from as early as 1939.

I do of course know that America did not enter the war until 7 (not 11) December, 1941; it's official "neutrality" was, however, a mostly convenient fiction for a long time before that happened.

[Madelaine McMasters]

10 hours ago, Pamela Galli said:

Just talking or breathing may spread it.

And singing!...

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

[Nalates Urriah]

10 hours ago, Pamela Galli said:

Just talking or breathing may spread it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-04-04T07%3A50%3A05&utm_source=twCNN

Actually true... Research is strongly suggesting Covid-19 is airborne. If that is the case, 6 ft (2m) of separation is not going to do much. It helps with droplet borne virus particles but not airborne ones. Being in a closed environment with recirculating air (the eco-friendly buildings use recirculation to save energy) is almost certain exposure if an infected person is present or has been in the room/building within 3 hours or so.

Covid-19 virus particles are 70–90 nm (Ref) or 0.07mm/μm/micron. Americans had to complicate what the British simplified when it comes to measuring things. Others say Covid is different sizes 0.125μm and 0.16 microns in diameter.  3M writing about their N95 masks says,

In the NIOSH classification system, particulate respirators are given an N, R, or P rating. Each particulate respirator is also given a filter efficiency rating of 95, 99, or 100 when tested against particles that are the most difficult size to filter – approximately 0.3 microns in size mass median aerodynamic diameter (MMAD). NIOSH class 95 particulate respirator filters are certified to be at least 95% efficient; class 100 particulate respirator filters are certified to be at least 99.97% efficient.

In paper by Thai researchers, (Ref - footnotes)

The droplet from coughing and sneezing is around five microns and we have tested already that cloth masks can protect against droplets bigger than one micron.

So, we don't have any easy absolute protection. But, we do have decent protection against virus carrying droplet particles. Even a scarf or bandana offers some protection. Wearing masks in any store is reasonable.

If you consider that when driving it is possible to tell if the person in the car ahead of you is smoking... (particles 0.1 to 1.0 micron) or upwind across the street... masks should likely be mandatory.

CNN is hyping the CoVid ‘bad’ news. I am hearing they have recently stopped showing the Trump Covid team broadcasts and provide only a commentary on what is being said. As I am writing this it may be, they figured out that isn’t going to work and changed back to live coverage.

If they are still only providing a commentary and you want to see how accurate the supposed mainstream media organization CNN is, try recording CNN and watching the live briefing as carried on alternative media. Then after watch the CNN coverage. Any positive Trump information/actions are omitted from the CNN reporting. There is a heavy bias toward bad and anti-Trump news. They have to do something to get their ratings up. Panic sells.

People have started to see that CNN and MSNBC are the fake news Trump claims them to be. Even if you HATE Trump you still want the truth. CNN Lies -Google vs CNN Lies -DuckDuckGo. Often a ‘lie’ is very much and issue of opinion. But the search results should let you decide.

Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) just got blasted for her fake news. (Ref)

If one is not watching contradictory news reports they have no way to know when they are being lied too.

27 minutes ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

SARS was another coronavirus (i.e. a virus shaped like ball,) which is not the same as an influenza virus.

Your numbers on SARS are spectacularly wrong - the actual number of Americans who caught SARS "flu" was 27. Not 27,000 or anything like that - twenty-seven.

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/

If what you said is what you get from your alternative news sources...

 

You are right. I mixed up SARS and the Swine H1N1. The numbers I said were 2003 SARS are for the 2009 Swine flu. My mistake. Thanks for the correction.

However, WHO says, “… The virus that causes COVID-19 and the one that caused the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 are related to each other genetically, but the diseases they cause are quite different.”  

Shape… A cursory look shows (Ref & Ref) H1N1 Swine flu and SARS are also spherical. CoV images (Ref).

[Lyssa Greymoon]

3 hours ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's America continues its transformation into international pariah and global "selfish and xenophobic old man on porch muttering about foreigners."

In 1940, when Britain and the Commonwealth (including Canada) stood alone against the Axis Powers, FDR's America stood up to be counted, and threw its industrial and economic power behind its most important international allies and friends, via the Lend-Lease Act.

80 years later, "allies" and "friends" of the US are in some peril of becoming endangered species.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52161995

He'd send them to North Korea, if they ever have a case of covid-19.

[Theresa Tennyson]

23 hours ago, Nalates Urriah said:

You'll also see alternative media reports of people from coroner's offices and hospitals complaining that deaths with Covid and deaths from Covid are all being counted as a Covid death for reporting. The reporting on how many are infected is known to be suffering from Selection Bias. If you haven't looked that and figured out what it means... then it is easy for you to misinterpret the reporting numbers.

However, at the same time they (and you) are uncritically reporting recorded deaths from influenza, which would have exactly the same problem - influenza isn't normally fatal to otherwise healthy people.

Another example of "alternative" bias is the, "I'm seeing empty hospital parking lots" argument. In an area with a lot of coronavirus infections a couple of other things happen - they cancel elective (i.e. often outpatient) surgeries and they cut way back on allowed visitors. In other words, they reduce the number of people who will be using short term surface lots. Very sick people tend to arrive by ambulance.

[Prokofy Neva]

As I have told my doctors for years, with wounds that won't heal, and they won't listen, if they could just get me a bottle of Mercurochrome, I'm pretty sure I could get this immune disease of mine licked. In fact, I'm positive I could.

Oh, it was banned? Oh, because it has mercury in it, apparently?

Oh. Is that one of the reasons I have an immune disease? Oh, I really don't think so. I think it was growing up 4 blocks from Love Canal that might have done that.

OK, but that's fine, I have another thing that my 94-year-old mother-in-law has told me will cure COVID, like it has cured a lot of things, and she should know, she survived the  Revolution, the collectivization, the dekulakification, World War II, the stagnation, Chernobyl, and her father and sons winding up in the GULAG. And what is that thing? It is known as "Sea Buckthorn" in the US. 

 

[Prokofy Neva]

3 hours ago, Nalates Urriah said:

Actually true... Research is strongly suggesting Covid-19 is airborne. If that is the case, 6 ft (2m) of separation is not going to do much. It helps with droplet borne virus particles but not airborne ones. Being in a closed environment with recirculating air (the eco-friendly buildings use recirculation to save energy) is almost certain exposure if an infected person is present or has been in the room/building within 3 hours or so.

Covid-19 virus particles are 70–90 nm (Ref) or 0.07mm/μm/micron. Americans had to complicate what the British simplified when it comes to measuring things. Others say Covid is different sizes 0.125μm and 0.16 microns in diameter.  3M writing about their N95 masks says,

In the NIOSH classification system, particulate respirators are given an N, R, or P rating. Each particulate respirator is also given a filter efficiency rating of 95, 99, or 100 when tested against particles that are the most difficult size to filter – approximately 0.3 microns in size mass median aerodynamic diameter (MMAD). NIOSH class 95 particulate respirator filters are certified to be at least 95% efficient; class 100 particulate respirator filters are certified to be at least 99.97% efficient.

In paper by Thai researchers, (Ref - footnotes)

The droplet from coughing and sneezing is around five microns and we have tested already that cloth masks can protect against droplets bigger than one micron.

So, we don't have any easy absolute protection. But, we do have decent protection against virus carrying droplet particles. Even a scarf or bandana offers some protection. Wearing masks in any store is reasonable.

If you consider that when driving it is possible to tell if the person in the car ahead of you is smoking... (particles 0.1 to 1.0 micron) or upwind across the street... masks should likely be mandatory.

CNN is hyping the CoVid ‘bad’ news. I am hearing they have recently stopped showing the Trump Covid team broadcasts and provide only a commentary on what is being said. As I am writing this it may be, they figured out that isn’t going to work and changed back to live coverage.

If they are still only providing a commentary and you want to see how accurate the supposed mainstream media organization CNN is, try recording CNN and watching the live briefing as carried on alternative media. Then after watch the CNN coverage. Any positive Trump information/actions are omitted from the CNN reporting. There is a heavy bias toward bad and anti-Trump news. They have to do something to get their ratings up. Panic sells.

People have started to see that CNN and MSNBC are the fake news Trump claims them to be. Even if you HATE Trump you still want the truth. CNN Lies -Google vs CNN Lies -DuckDuckGo. Often a ‘lie’ is very much and issue of opinion. But the search results should let you decide.

Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) just got blasted for her fake news. (Ref)

If one is not watching contradictory news reports they have no way to know when they are being lied too.

You are right. I mixed up SARS and the Swine H1N1. The numbers I said were 2003 SARS are for the 2009 Swine flu. My mistake. Thanks for the correction.

However, WHO says, “… The virus that causes COVID-19 and the one that caused the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 are related to each other genetically, but the diseases they cause are quite different.”  

Shape… A cursory look shows (Ref & Ref) H1N1 Swine flu and SARS are also spherical. CoV images (Ref).

A lab worker in my daughter's hospital who is never in contact with the public or even the blood runners (who have spread it) now has tested positive. How did he get it? It must be airborne. Management did not think he and other lower-paid personnel should have been wearing masks all this time -- like, for the last two months. Some of them finally have masks now - one, for re-use. The workers in the hospital who are sick with COVID now are all the lowest paid personnel, not the doctors. But doctors and nurses are getting it too. It doesn't discriminate.

 

[Prokofy Neva]

6 hours ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

You are correct about the exact date of the LL Act; however, FDR had already signaled his intentions of supporting Britain and the Commonwealth. He first called America the "Arsenal of Democracy" in December of 1940, and before that had already taken steps to provide Britain with assistance, most notably through the leasing of destroyers in exchange for naval bases. In fact, the first steps in supporting Britain financially date from as early as 1939.

I do of course know that America did not enter the war until 7 (not 11) December, 1941; it's official "neutrality" was, however, a mostly convenient fiction for a long time before that happened.

Yes, FDR was late in entering the war, and history has judged him for that -- and PS, for not saving the Jews of Germany which he could have done a lot more of as well.

And Lend Lease was vital, and vital for the Soviets as well, although they used some of it to build the bomb.

There are some great books on this topic and I think this biography of George Marshall is good because it shows you the advisors clamouring to get FDR into the war, struggling to get him to act, and he doesn't act, because he is afraid of not getting re-elected, and afraid of the captains of industry who were slow in getting resolve about this. If you want to blame someone for getting into the war late, blame the American people. FDR might have gotten in earlier, given his constant communication with Churchill, but the American people, especially the south, who recalled the civil war and had taken the brunt of it, did not want any war. There was also the problem of the woefully small US army at the time and its pitiful supplies, something that Harry Hopkins worked very hard to reverse, in part through first organizing the civilian corps.

But there's also other points where you have to ask why the UK was slow to act. Churchill refused to launch Operation Overlord (which ultimately took place and is known as the Battle of Normandy in June 1944). Years before that, the US was urging the UK to invade France, and already was willing to send the troops and ships. They had countless meetings sometimes on ships in Canada or in Asia, where supposedly the UK was going to get on board finally -- but it kept dragging its feet. They wanted to detour off to Asia to try to stop Japan there, and that wasn't a bad idea, given Pearl Harbor and then the Korean War, but historians still argue over whether they really could have stopped Hitler sooner had they launched Operation Overlord faster. 

Why was Churchill reluctant? Because he didn't want to risk losing masses of young British men, as the UK had lost in World War I: nearly a million. There were some battles, like the Battle of the Somme, where the Britain lost 400,000, and I believe more than 19,000 just on the first day. In order to understand history, you need to know more history -- it's endless. Churchill also had to think of politics -- and the British people who didn't want their sons to die in such huge numbers again. So it is what it is. 

The US largely sat out WWI, and lost "only" 116,000, which was low compared to other countries. But it is helpful to remember that before *that*, they had the civil war, in which 620,000 lost their lives and the economy was ruined in many places. Governments -- and people -- are always fighting the last war. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Prokofy Neva

[Prokofy Neva]

7 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

That's not all "the Donald" said.  He told 3M he wants all the masks, as in all.  3M said "no" to the President.  I found it a very peculiar demand on 3M.   

GM began making more respirators even before the president ordered them to, however. He had forgotten that he had once applauded the sale of this one GM plant that made them. 

[Lindal Kidd]

Sigh.

I admit it (and have in the past).  I voted for Trump.  I felt he was a bad choice, but marginally better than Hillary...because while Trump was venal and crooked, he was also stupid.  Hillary is venal, crooked, and smart, a very dangerous combination.  I felt Trump's stupidity would prevent him from doing too much damage, because he'd be outflanked by smart opponents in Congress and the agencies.

When the impeachment circus began, I had hopes that smart Republicans in the Senate would take the opportunity to oppose him.  But the threat of losing the election by deposing the incumbent proved too great...and the Democrats mismanaged the whole thing in the House terribly. 

Now we have THIS crisis.  We desperately NEED someone smart to provide leadership...and we've got the Clown.  Pence would be no better, he's completely amoral.

Can we maybe impeach him again, and Pence with him, for criminal negligence and mass murder?  Pelosi is also not my choice, but she's smart and she's tough.

Trump's even said he doesn't want mail in voting, because it's "more subject to fraud."  Tell that to the IRS, who has never required in-person submission of tax returns.

Sorry for the political rant.  Let's get back to "COVID facts."

Edited April 5, 2020 by Lindal Kidd