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Rya Nitely

LindeX at 251

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I just find it interesting and a bit concerning. The change is coming quickly. I'm not asking a question here. There are diffferent views on the reason for the change. I just thought I'd raise the subject if anyone is interested, as I am, and a bit concerned.



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I don't what there is to be concerned about. If a few people want to sell quickly, they up the rate to whatever will put them at the front. L$251 and L$250 will go quickly and then it's the turn of L$249. It's always been like that.

If a load of people decide to sell quickly, then the rate could go up and stay up, but that's the way the market has always worked. The bulk of sales used to be more than L$250.

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I put in a limit order of 249 on the 23rd. Still waiting on the morning of the 26th. 

It is definitely inching up. 

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My experience is that, when you offer to sell at the 'bulk' value, as you did, I never get it in the space of just a few days. If I'd placed the sell order when you did, I'd have been amazed if it was sold by now. Remember that, when you add your sale to the 'bulk' value, you go right to the back of the queue. So I don't see your current experience as being in any way unusual, Pamela. If it had sold by now, that would have been unusual.

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There was a change a while back, but the market history (including today's data) looks remarkably stable again.

I'm actually a bit more worried about it being so stable even at a time when we might have expected a brief excursion while folks sell L$s trying to raise extra US$s to buy-down their Estate fees to grandfathered levels. There are a couple folks across the street who seem to think the Lab sometimes *buys* L$s (as well as sells them), which would worry me... and such remarkably stable rates would indicate either some such buying -- or truly voracious sinks.

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I see it too, Rya. The quick cash out number has changed again to 250. At the beginning of the year, it was 248, then 249 more recently, and now pretty clearly (to me at least), 250. Since it was 248 for quite a few years, and now we are seeing a change, inching up in just months, I'd agree that 251 could happen this summer.  I hope not.

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Arwen Serpente wrote:

I see it too, Rya. The quick cash out number has changed again to 250. At the beginning of the year, it was 248, then 249 more recently, and now pretty clearly (to me at least), 250. Since it was 248 for quite a few years, and now we are seeing a change, inching up in just months, I'd agree that 251 could happen this summer.  I hope not.

Exactly what I am seeing. My order @ 249 on the 23rd was filled this morning, the 27th. 

Phil, I don't know what you mean by a bulk order, but I do cash out the same amount each time.

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I said "bulk value", Pamela, not bulk order. By 'bulk value' I mean the value where the bulk of the sell orders are. In the case of the graphic in the OP, it's at 249. So, if I had placed a sell order at 249 when you did, I would have been amazed if it had sold in such a short spcae of time. You wrote as though it was taking an unusually long time, but in my experience, it wasn't even due yet.

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Phil Deakins wrote:

I said "bulk value", Pamela, not bulk order. By 'bulk value' I mean the value where the bulk of the sell orders are. In the case of the graphic in the OP, it's at 249. So, if I had placed a sell order at 249 when you did, I would have been amazed if it had sold in such a short spcae of time. You wrote as though it was taking an unusually long time, but in my experience, it wasn't even due yet.

I see. The only thing amazing is that not that long ago, 247 was the bulk value,, to cash out within a few hours, 248. So it has jumped two points in a short time, after being stable for years. What would have cashed out in minutes a few months ago -- 249 -- now is taking 3-4 days.

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It's changed a lot from what I have noticed over the years. Last year it dropped form a pretty steady $7.54/2000L ( it held there pretty well for a year or more). for selling Lindens to after the casino crackdown/Sansar  it went to  $7.47/2000L and now lately it has since around the new fees being talked about it went down to  $7.47- 7.45/2000L.  A bit lower lately with the new grandfathered pricing  it seems to lean more to 7.43-7.41/2000L.  All rates are after LL fees. 

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everybody calculates with xxx / 1 USD.. you do it 7.45/2000

to make it easier?

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For me it is. Seeing the overall change in what I need to cash out for tier. Just makes more sense if you are just playing the LindeX Market may be more important to break it down that way. As a land Owner it shows me a better picture for making tier the way I do it. As well as how the Linden dollar is doing over time. 

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Phil Deakins wrote:

The increase is no doubt due to the natural market, and nothing (imo) to be concerned about.

My experience is like Pamela's and some others here. For several years I was cashing out at 248 for an instant sale, and this was stable. Not once did I need to go higher. Then recently it became 249 and now 250 or 251.

If it is indeed due to the natural market (some big sellers) as you say, and I hope it is, then the quick sale value should drift back to 249 or even 248 in the near future - at least get there some of the time. But I doubt it.

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We have been fortunate for some time that the 'bulk' selling price has been been below 250, because it was way above 250 for long enough before it. Wasn't it 260 or over at one time? My memory says it was. I used to miss the time before that when it was around 250.

ETA: LL used to take steps to regulate the value at around 250. Maybe they still do. But it still went up to ~260 and stayed there for quite some time. Overall though, I don't see any reason for any concern at all in the current figures. When I came to SL in 2006, the rule of thumb was that US$1 = ~L$250, and that's still the rule of thumb 10 years later. And, to be honest, the US$ difference between selling at 249 and selling at 251 is so small as to be insignificant. It's only those who are new enough to have got used to selling at 249 who (wrongly, imo) see the tiny increase as perhaps being the portent of further increases to come.

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I don't remember exactly how long it was stable at 248. I know I've been selling since 2011 but maybe it took me a while to catch on that I could place limit sell orders, or I wasn't earning enough for it to be important.

My total profit has increased significantly over the past few years (I have more than one SL business), and every 1 point increase in the LindeX is costing me about $15  a month. With the recent fee increase it starts to add up.

But, it is just a minor concern. I should be grateful because I am making money in SL, and also because my local currency is still experiencing a good exchange rate. This is business - you take the ups with the downs.

Obviously, there are many sellers who think the one point is significant as they are prepared to wait in that 249 queue.

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If a 1pt increase costs you US$15 a month, then you must be cashing a LOT out, in which case the US$15 is what I said it was - insignificant :)

I used to cash out over a million L$ every month and I wouldn't have been concerned in the slightest about very small rate changes, which is what we're talking about here, simply because the difference would have been a drop in the proverbial ocean.

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Rya Nitely wrote: ... every 1 point increase in the LindeX is costing me about $15  a month. With the recent fee increase it starts to add up.

Whoa! No, you can't assume that. Every 1 point increase in the LindeX is also making L$s ever so slightly more affordable to your customers, so some of the effect should be to increase the number of L$s you're taking in, eventually to cash them out.

For land businesses, however, this is tricky because land fees are still US$ denominated, regardless of the L$s value. This is also why of most interest is the L$'s exchange rate against the US$ as opposed to €s, £s, CDN$, etc.; even if the L$ has gained a lot of value against other currencies, what really matters to land operators is its strength for paying US$ tier.

To the historical questions: Tyche has market data back to late 2009, which suggests that the old stable rate was about 260, had a brief excursion up to about 267 in 2010, then fell back slowly to the several-year "normal" of about 248.

 

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The data is interesting, thank you. So, it was in late 2011 when I started selling that the market became stable at 248, until September 2015 - approximately 4 years.

And I also just realised that if you place a market buy at or above 25000L then you will meet the 249 sell price, and the 0.40 fee is absorbed. I couldn't understand the market buy rate as quoted, but now I see that it includes the fee.

Anyway, it's an interesting topic, I think, even if there is no need for concern.

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I would hazzard a guess that the most recent changes have been due to more people selling lindens to pay for the new tier buy-down.  At $600 for regular estates or $180 for homesteads per sim, that has to have a lot of people cashing out more than usual.  I did.  I expect it will die down when summer settles in on us.

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The L$ fluctuates within a L$3 range daily. Unless it goes below L$200/$1 you have nothing to worry about. The L$ like any currency should be expect to fluctuate and you should be glad it does. Stagnation can harm an economy more than a bouncy number.

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To add to this, the L$ is actually more stable than some RL currencies. The fact that it sees this much fluctuation is a sign of how healthy it is as a currency.

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But why can't it fluctuate downwards instead of upwards?  LOL.  THAT would make me (and I presume many others, too) VERY happy :matte-motes-big-grin:.  By downwards I mean back to 247 rather than up to 251...or 252..etc...

 

But yes, that is the market.  Patience is rewarding, usually..  Let's see what happens over next few months.

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