Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Rya Nitely

LindeX at 251

Recommended Posts

Let's see,

I sold L$60,000 last night to pay my tier fees to LL and received $221.85 at the rate of L$261/1 USD.

If I had sold that this morning at L$266/1 USD I could have lost $221.85 - L$217.68 = $4.17 USD in net proceeds.

This represents a loss in potential value of 1.9%

This % fluctuation is beyond what the normal RW Currency Market percentages experience BUT the ratio of the two furrencies ordinals 260 to1 causes any change to appear a bit more more dramatic.

Clearly a body of L$ owners are trying to cash out into USDs and this has been happening for a span of weeks. Without complete data [who is cashing out these USDs v. simply hording them against some anticipated future event] it's going to be hard to pinpoint why people are anxious to sell Lindens.

What we are not seeing is LARGE sell offs of Lindens which would indicate a type of spot day trading.

In the real world markets, spot traders move millions of any currencty on a 0.01 % exchange difference to make a profit.

By comparison., In the Linden realm, this is a [penny] currency.

Looking at the 90 Day & 30 Day Market graphs:

30 Day

90 Day

You see the devaluation of the Linden occurring. But what is interesting is the volume of the trading. It's lower than One would expect if this was a forced market event.

On the Spot Market the linden traded at a high today of L$279/1 USD

What we are seeing I think is very robust trading of a few people in SL. The fact of the high L$278 shows some very determined people wanting to rid them selves of the Linden for USDs. However the low of L$258 shows that others still have confidence in this market but the days of the L$251/1 USD may be over [looking at the trend since February] .

Without the additional information on what folks are doing with the USDs in their accounts we can't draw a more intelligent conclusion regarding the fluctuations.

Now if this trading is predictive of events in the RW [like the beginning of as Bull Market in Stocks] then this would be a first. But of course, the total $$ investment in SL is a pittance of the basis wealth needed to be an indicator of that.

EDIT: The discussion over in the https://community.secondlife.com/t5/General-Discussion-Forum/So-the-LindEx-Guys/td-p/3032736/page/3 thread has a lot  of possibilities....

 

Just thinking out loud....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I tried selling twice and each time my sale was burried buy bids placed at even HIGHER L$ (or lower depending how you wish to word it) now showing bids of 267 and decided I will not succumb to this insanity.  I've pulled my sales and will now wait to see what happens.  I refuse to participate in this fiasco of panic I think those of us who want to salavage the situation should also pull their sales or place them down in the 250's and hopefully stabalize the situation before it becomes so bad that we can never bring it back down.

 

C'MON PEOPLE!  We need to pull together!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Rya Nitely wrote:


Qie Niangao wrote:


 Recent Lindex behaviour looks (to me) a lot like hysterical sellling -- folks piling-on sell orders in fear the price will get "even worse" rather than to generate US$ revenue.

I've been trying to sell. I placed an order at 256 yesterday, one point lower than the highest. It didn't sell. I just had a look and the new high is 263. I cancelled and put it in at 263 - it sold. Now if I didn't, I could look tomorrow and find it at 270.
It may not really be panic selling, but just people wanting to sell and the only way to do it is to place it at the top of the queue. There seems to be no choice.

My gut instinct tells me that that's exactly what it is. Of course my gut may be mistaken, but I believe it for now.

ETA: Having now read the posts that followed the one I quoted, I'm becoming inclined to think that my gut instinct was wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you can see the trader(s) throwing 100K at the top of the buy side. When this goes through another 100K appears. Then it gets moved to the top of the sell side, and so on ans so on. As long as the spread is >10L they can make a profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phil Deakins wrote:

ETA: Having now read the posts that followed the one I quoted, I'm becoming inclined to think that my gut instinct was wrong.

Meanwhile, I'm coming around to your gut instinct. Not because of the posts here, and I'm sure there are some crazies doing stupid stuff in the market, but if this is "hysterical selling" as I claimed, it's the most boring run-on-the-bank there ever was:

The volumes are just way, way too low.

What does it mean when there's a large price movement and little or no increase in volume? Simply a good ol' fashioned collapse of demand? Or is there some other explanation that fits these market data?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Qie Niangao wrote:


The
volumes
are just way, way too low.

What does it mean when there's a large price movement and little or no increase in volume? Simply a good ol' fashioned collapse of demand? Or is there some other explanation that fits these market data?

In a normal (unmanipulated) market it means the trend is unlikely to continue. But I don't think this is a normal market. Merchants are reporting that nothing has changed with their sales volumes. Many people say they are not selling because they want 'to accumulate enough Lindens to minimise the credt processing fee'. They don't seem to realise it has nothing to do with selling L$, and by waiting they're losing more money. Some are waiting for things to cool down.

So, it doesn't have anything to do with a run on the bank.

I think we already know the answer. It's LL, and there's nothing we can do about it. It will stabilise when it reaches their target, whatever that is. It might have been 260, and maybe we overshot with trader activity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rya Nitely wrote:

I think we already know the answer. It's LL, and there's nothing we can do about it. It will stabilise when it reaches their target, whatever that is. It might have been 260, and maybe we overshot with trader activity.

If it is LL, and if they're manipulating the sell rate up to, say, 260, then would the slight gain in commissions be worthwhile?, especially when those merchants who took up the buy-down offer would see that what they would eventually gain by it was to some extent taken away, and that LL had s**t on them yet again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Supply Linden could be printing fresh money and filling a significant amount of market buy orders with it. People buy the new L$ and LL gets their US dollars, and that makes them happy, for now. This would explain the market - not enough buyers, so sellers need to compete to sell their Lindens.

Quantitative easing is also a reason LL would do this - to make L cheaper for consumers, hence stimulate spending.

It's just a theory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1000 :matte-motes-tongue:

finally, after all these years of posting. How people get to 7000 is beyond me. It will probably take me another 7 years to get to 2000.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting to 7000 is easy - or it used to be. All you need to do is get into some good and enjoyable arguments often that go on for ages. For me, people's aversion to bots worked very well. Unfortunately, we have an RIC link now, which some people are fond of clicking, so the good old-fashioned arguments get squashed before they've hardly had a chance to start, and getting up to 7000 takes so much longer now :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People who make money just trading currency have to be loving the amount of profit they are making right now.

 

Most of tonight this has been the picture. (Night times are always very slow)



What is very telling is how little there is on the buy side compared to sell. 

When buy and sell are that unbalanced there market is heading for a huge shakeup. That 280 buy will snap very soon, and then we move to 285 with sell following at 268. The 290 buy is already starting to form, and a bigger fish (The Lindens?) are there with their 300 buy waiting.

300 buy, if the same gap exists means 283 sell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Rya Nitely wrote:

1000 
:P

finally, after all these years of posting. How people get to 7000 is beyond me. It will probably take me another 7 years to get to 2000.

CONGRATULATIONS Rya :D

I took a picture for you to have as a keepsake. :D

I'm finally closing in on post 7000. Now what that achievement has in store for me is unknown other than being 7 more posts away from a perfect OCD number 7007. :P

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever was the reason for the rise, it does appear to have stopped now. The highest offers have been the same for the best part of a couple of days, and it's settling down. It may drift down a little bit to around 260.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


KarenMichelle Lane wrote:


Rya Nitely wrote:

1000 
:P

finally, after all these years of posting. How people get to 7000 is beyond me. It will probably take me another 7 years to get to 2000.

CONGRATULATIONS Rya
:D

I took a picture for you to have as a keepsake.
:D



I'm finally closing in on post
7000
. Now what that achievement has in store for me is unknown other than being 7 more posts away from a perfect OCD number
7007
.
:P

 

Novices.  Phttttttttttt!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For well over a year and closer to two years I would say the value of the Linden dollar has been stable at 247-250 per U.S. dollar. All of a sudden it is up to 262-264 per U.S. dollar in just a couple of weeks? I have been checking the rate daily since I saw it hit 252 per dollar and it has never lowered since and I imagine it probably won't.

So cashing out say just 50,000 Lindens now, you automatically lose 10$ at the current exchange rate compared to the rate a couple of weeks ago & that does not include the extra fees for cash out.

This really seems like the market is being manipulated to me and yes I am a conspiracy theorist, my favorite show was the X-Files after all. Hahaha!  I have been in SL for some time though and I have never seen this big of a change, just seems rather odd to me.

Is Sansar up and running full now? I wonder what the exchange rate there is ?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sansar won't be out of beta until at least next year this time. They're approaching a new round of closed beta (testing mesh builds) ... I doubt they have any form of currency yet.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Phil Deakins wrote:

Wasn't it 260 or over at one time? My memory says it was. I used to miss the time before that when it was around 250.

same, I really miss it. I'll even be happy with 251.:smileysad:

Seriously, though. We may never know the reason, but most of the SL population gains from it with a cheaper L$, as long as rent and prices aren't raised.

If it settles at 260 it gives more weight to a controlled rise rather than the buy down, because it started so suddenly and then ended suddenly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It has settled on 258 for slow cash out -- above that for fast. For several days the amount for sale above 257 has stayed around 20 million, with small dips and spikes. That remains the case but now those are concentrated at 258. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick update:

The fastest right now is 254, with the bulk at 250/251. It's on its way back down. Whatever the cause was, it seems to have run its course, and it looks like the rate may fall back to where it started.

So what was the cause? At one time I fancied users for it, but then I changed to a preference for LL, simply because of the huge amounts being offered. I'm still inclined towards LL, and I'm thinking that they just wanted some quick cash. But who knows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Never look a gift horse in the mouth.

That means, whatever the reason, don't question it;  let's be happy it is settling down.  Will it return to 247?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Why it happened?  Could be Aliens.  Could be traders.  Could be and act of GOD, LL "printing new money", Wil Smith pissed someone off in independence day 2, Area 51, someone stepped on an ant in a parallel universe an messed things up, a time shift causing a paradox.... or maybe the dog barked when she should have bit!  We may never know.  All I hope is whatever it was, it was rectified and all will go back to normal.  

To be honest, it's not unlike the true Stock Market where things can go to hell in a handbag and ULLLLLLLLLLLLLLTIMATELY stabilizes and goes back to normal.

Good thing I cancelled my sales back when it was running at the 260's.  Won't say I'd lose my shirt but rather sell in the 240's or 250's than 260's or even 270's.

Actually I suspect the dropping to low 250's will slow down tremendously as the amounts selling below 254 are now entering much bigger quantities.

We shall see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the activity looks about normal for a weekend too which is good news.

Something is still a bit strange though.   I posted this over the road, but in my 30 days history I have the below appear.  I wondered if database/system related, or something else.  I am not sure I can check to see if the Lindens were returned due to the balance I had at the time.

I did try to raise a support ticket but the system is down right now for me at least and nothing on the status blog.

 

Order Id Order Type Quantity Ordered Quantity Filled Limit Rate Time Opened Time Closed Closure Method Gross US$ Net US$
15858719 Market Buy L$ 2,800 L$ 0 – 2009-12-15 06:01:33 2016-05-19 17:46:33 system_cancel US$ 0.00 US$ 0.00
33748897 Market Buy L$ 6,000 L$ 0 – 2013-01-01 11:11:46 2016-05-19 17:46:33 system_cancel US$ 0.00 US$ 0.00

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just checked and I have one too.



 

no idea. All the craziness pushed some old buried stuff to the surface 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...