Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Rya Nitely

LindeX at 251

Recommended Posts


Rya Nitely wrote:

I have a small order in now at 256. I don't know if it will sell. The way the LindeX market is going it might not be worth it to hold off selling.

is a bit like RL global traders whose product is priced in USD. In the RL there is a formal market for hedging own currency fluctuations

in SL (Lindex) then the only way to hedge is to put blocks of L$ at different rates, say 3 or more blocks. Moving the outer blocks up or down as the market moves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Prokofy Neva wrote:

Look, this nonsense about the crashing of the LindEx -- let's be frank in calling it what it is -- is NOT about any "buydown".

I realize a lot of self-serving types who either don't care or *want* their customers to have cheaper dollars to buy their stuff that they either a) don't cash out quickly or b) don't care if they lose money on are spreading this notion.

And people who are just spreading hearsay and mean well are spreading it too.

But let's use common sense and logic.

Then there is $1.3 million US dollars trying to get out the door, that is NOT about any "buydown". That would mean 2,000 buydowns and there aren't that many. Plus, it's irrational to use cashed-out Lindens you'd lose money on now, and have to pay a fee on, to buy the buydown. You'd use your regular debit or credit card for that of course if you were at all business savvy.

Sure, maybe some little old ladies who rent sims on Sundays and horde their Lindens bought some. But not 2000 such people.

So it's about Project Sansar's beta opening wider and people escaping before the inevitable.

And others taking advantage to buy cheap Lindens and play the LindEx.

What's been truly annoying is to see all the denials and fanboyz stuff about this trend for the last 3 weeks visible in this thread.

That's the most ridiculous theory yet. But you don't even suggest it as a theiry. You stated it as a fact. Ridiculous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Phil Deakins wrote:


Prokofy Neva wrote:

So it's about Project Sansar's beta opening wider and people escaping before the inevitable.

 

That's the most ridiculous theory yet. But you don't even suggest it as a theiry. You stated it as a fact. Ridiculous.

Ridiculousness doesn't disqualify a theory of market behaviour, especially when participants are reacting to motives they're ascribing to other participants. Folks very well could sell because they think there are enough other folks out there foolish enough to sell-off their L$s in fits of Sansarphobia. It's the hysterical, sell-side equivalent of the Greater Fool Theory.

Recent Lindex behaviour looks (to me) a lot like hysterical sellling -- folks piling-on sell orders in fear the price will get "even worse" rather than to generate US$ revenue. In real markets, this would lead to a big swing back, the stockpile of saleable L$s diminished and buyers willing to pay much more to get their L$s. But that can't happen on the Lindex as long as Supply is there, ready to sell at a "floor" exchange rate.

So, there's asymmetrical risk and reward -- a disincentive for speculators to buy low because the price can never get all that dear.

(In fact, I also think Prok may be onto something, and that folks in general are less motivated by all things Second Life now, while Sansar is building hype. And, as I've said many times, I expect the most likely outcome is for Sansar to fail and take Second Life down with it. OpenSim-based worlds linger on, still irrelevant and depressing, slowly bleeding-out the last SL-bound residents, all vitality having shifted to the Next Big Thing, whatever that is.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Pamela Galli wrote:

Just speculating, but I have not been in a hurry to sell because I was not going to process credit often anyway. So I put in orders I figured would take a few days to sell. And they did not sell at all, so I cancelled and tried again. Long story short I ended up with a lot of Lindens unsold. 

Same here.



Apparently i haven't sold a linden in over 30 days... I am not sure what to do now. I haven't put any new orders anymore as all i've been doing recently is cancelling them a day later anyway... It's Monday, i know it's probably too naive of me to hope that later today or tomorrow LL will come out with some kind of explanation or solution to this...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although I called it a theory in the part of my post that you quoted, Prok didn't post it as a theory. She posted it as fact and literally dismissed all other ideas.

Whilst her idea is certainly a theory - one that holds no merit, imo - I can't agree with you that the reason for the change is anything to do with Sansar. If Sansar was imminent, I could accept the idea, but it's not.

Note: I posted that the idea of saving up before cashing out, because of the new Process Credit charges, is very plausible, but I've changed my mind. The amounts processed might be being saved up for that reason, but it's no reason to save up before selling L$.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Qie Niangao wrote:


(In fact, I also think Prok may be onto something, and that folks in general are less motivated by all things Second Life now, while Sansar is building hype.

I talk to many of my customers. Whenever I mention Sansar they either don't know what I'm talking about or the general response is 'oh yes, I heard something about that, what is it all about?' Unless something affects them directly they don't seem to know about it. We, in the forums, keep up with the latest news. And my sales are very stable. I'm surprised at how I sell almost the same L$ amount everyday. Nothing has changed in my SL, or with the people I deal with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Qie Niangao wrote:


 Recent Lindex behaviour looks (to me) a lot like hysterical sellling -- folks piling-on sell orders in fear the price will get "even worse" rather than to generate US$ revenue.

I've been trying to sell. I placed an order at 256 yesterday, one point lower than the highest. It didn't sell. I just had a look and the new high is 263. I cancelled and put it in at 263 - it sold. Now if I didn't, I could look tomorrow and find it at 270. It may not really be panic selling, but just people wanting to sell and the only way to do it is to place it at the top of the queue. There seems to be no choice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beginning of last week I was still hoping it would return back to the 248's but I finally caved by mid-week and jumped on the 252 bandwagon.

What I found odd was that I was still sitting in the que at 252 last Thursday night with probably a few mill still ahead of me (also on 252) and there was nothing above so it was chiseling away nicely. Within a single refresh someone/s dropped 22mill on 253 and then the same happened at 254 / 255 etc... all huge amounts and within hours.

I'm guessing that the 22mill I saw (around 80k USD) had to be a few people because only ppl above Enterprise Level 3 can sell above 30k USD in a 24hr period.

Wow, the difference of selling 22mill at 248 vs 253 is a loss of almost USD $1686 - if that same amount sells at 264 instead of 248, that's a loss of over 5k USD - who can afford that? and you can probably rule out hacked accounts dumping vast quantities of L$'s without a care of what rate they sell for because of the trading limits in place.

Maybe this is just a case of too much supply and not enough demand at the moment? (it is heading into the summer months soon) after-all if it was a panic over Sansar, hasn't it been mentioned that Sansar will still allow you to use your L$'s there as a currency. I just don't know what's going on, hopefully it'll improve soon!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Rya Nitely wrote:


Qie Niangao wrote:


 Recent Lindex behaviour looks (to me) a lot like hysterical sellling -- folks piling-on sell orders in fear the price will get "even worse" rather than to generate US$ revenue.

I've been trying to sell. I placed an order at 256 yesterday, one point lower than the highest. It didn't sell. I just had a look and the new high is 263. I cancelled and put it in at 263 - it sold. Now if I didn't, I could look tomorrow and find it at 270. It may not really be panic selling, but just people wanting to sell and the only way to do it is to place it at the top of the queue. There seems to be no choice.

Same experience here, except bids I put at the top just sat there. Has to be above the top. 

Also I confirm what others have said already: I see no year on year difference in sales this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now Ebbe says Sansar will not be used in Sansar, but IIRC there will be a currency exchange.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think there are active traders now, and this is exacerbating the problem. Traders wouldn't care how much they buy or sell for, as long as they make a profit. I don't think the original problem was caused by traders, but they're using the opportunity. To make decent money they'd need to be on high levels, as you say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm starting to wonder if I will still be in business in a month or 2 from now.  The L$ is losing value at unprecedented rate and the way the BUY column is presenting itself, looks like people are leaving Secondlife and only people running businesses are left. 

Whether it is Sansar or Linden Labs sabotage or the US$ fluctuation or any other conspiracy theory people may believe, the fact remains, the L$ is going to "hell in a hand basket".  With a 7% change in less than a month, I can't see things getting better at all anymore.  If buying doesn't increase anytime soon, Secondlife may see its demise a LOT sooner than potential forecasting may have predicted. 

It is truly a shame.   I have to wonder if LL's decision for SL2 was a smart one.  What's that old expression... Be happy with what you have; don't be greedy.  Allegorically speaking it is the same mistake Apple made when they put the first MAC computer on the market to succeed the Apple 2 and all they ended up doing is bringing Apple to the brink of bankruptcy.

Sigh....  sometimes progress is NOT the answer.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Rya Nitely wrote:


SIN Rain wrote:

 


thanks for the link. It's very informative. Obviously the transparency part is no longer followed.

Can you imagine having the kind of transparency promised by Phillip in that post? Wow. 

My guess is that the buy down offer was exactly too good to be true as it appeared -- LL is giving with one hand and taking with the other. We will not actually be recouping the buy down cost because our pockets are being picked by market manipulation. 

 

Wonder why the blog post is from 2006 and the replies from 2009? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites



The downwards spiral continues - I expect it'll get alot worse still, as we near the end of the month - people will NEED their money in RL, and will accept worse and worse rates to get them despite the heavy loss.

This is how it looks as I write this...

 

edit: actually there's already offers at 264 before I hit the 'post' button ;-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it against the TOS to trade on the LindeX? Does anyone know? Because to me it looks like obvious trading going on. If we're trying to compete with traders we won't win. They don't care how much they sell for, as long as they are making a profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Lindens really need to comment on this.  It really looks like someone is gaming the system because as soon as it looks like it's going to start selling off someone drops 10 million as a roadblock and it goes up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like bad mouthing the Lindens but...it doesn't seem like they care.  Or if they do, it's not very clear what they are doing if they are doing anytng at all.  Would be reassuring if they could say something to reassure us, but as far as "Trading" or whatever, yes I would tend to agree it looks like something fishy is going on.  It makes no sense that currency exchange should drop this quickly in value.   This almost like a stockmarket crash or something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Rya Nitely wrote:


<snip>

Furthermore, I DO NOT believe that LL will intentionally do anything to damage SL or the confidence of its creators. This would be silly and not a wise business move.

 

Key word is intentionally.  But we all know what the road to perdition is paved with.  ;)

 


Rya Nitely wrote:

 

LL is depending on the people of SL to migrate over to Sansar, especially the creators. They wouldn't want these people to lose confidence, and decide not to invest their time and money in Sansar.

 

Maybe some creators but not all.  But as far as current users are concerned, we are not LL's target audience for Sansar.  They really don't care if we migrate or not.  I documented this in a prior thread but not gonna beat a dead horse right now.

 


Rya Nitely wrote:

Also SL is not going away. There will be many people who will still prefer it to Sansar. As long as LL makes some money out of it, it will stay.

</snip>

 

These last points I agree with.  But not absolutely.  I consider it unlikely but not impossible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is intensely frustrating to see a market change of this magnitude and not hear anything about it from the Lindens. In the past, they has expressed that their target valuation for the Linden was 250L/USD. I was also under the impression that LL stabilized the Exchange Rate. That certainly no longer seems to be the case.

I'll admit that I was in a bit of a panicked fluster over the whole deal, since I earn my income in LL (which allows me to stay home and care for my Disabled wife), but after digging around for a few hours, I gather that something similar happened back in 2006 (which was the year before I started SL). Also, it looks like some of the savvier brains that watch this kind of thing predicted this kind of market change when the Buy Down offer was made last month.So just maybe this isn't a reason to immitate Chicken Little. But that doesn't make it any less frustrating in the short term, when income is reduced by some 6% in   a few weeks to circumstances completely beyond our control. Nor does it make it any less scary while the value of the L$ continues to drop... while LL says absolutely nothing.

I'm still trying to decide if what concerns me the most is that a few days ago when the weakest open sell order was for 257L/USD, there was roughly 160 Million L$ worth of open sell orders for over 250L/USD (i.e. 251L or more per USD)... and that today when the weakest open sell order is at 265L/USD, there is still roughly 160 Million L$ worth of open sell orders for over 250L/USD. Does that show returning stability? Or does that show that much of the same currency is still crawling down in value as folks try to sell it?

Sure would be nice if LL would at least comment. Maybe tell us about volumes of L$ moving... and give us some kind of picture about this being a big sell off period... or larger volume orders due to the fee changes... or something.


(editing for crappy spelling... I need more caffiene)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well looks like that TRADING theory may be true.  Someone JUST dropped 5 million on $265.  COINCIDENCE?  I doubt it.  Could have easily put it at 264 or even 263 but why help improve a bad situation when you can make it worse?  Like to drop a piano on that seller...sigh.

 

Sorry...just very agravated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...