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Rya Nitely

LindeX at 251

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I don't believe in the buy-down theory either, because I don't think that it would have such a huge impact. Most of the money to fund the buy-down fees would be coming from an external source (Paypal) or out of profit (people selling as usual and then using the credit to pay the land fees).

What makes the most sense to me is that Supply Linden is pushing down the value of L$, making it more affordable, perhaps to stimulate consumer spending. But if it goes down too much, and merchants and estate owners start feeling the pinch then prices in SL might rise.

The Linden Exchange doesn't really work the same as real currency markets. The Australian dollar, for example, fluctuations come with sound reasons - the mining boom, interests rates or just trader speculation. But with the L$ some people think we should be satisified with no explanation at all, except that it just happens.

I hope it isn't a 'run on the bank' because what would be driving it? When L$ did go as high as 270 it could have been the time when homestead prices increased, driving many people out of SL. That would be an explanation. If many people leave SL in a short period of time then that could drive down spending, and hence the value of L$. So, it is worth thinking about the reasons. It just could be important. Or it might not be.

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Rya Nitely wrote:

And I think a lot of people would find it comforting that there is a thread on the subject so that they can find out what others think

agree. Is an interesting topic for discussion and speculation

some history

in the 1st 18 months of Lindex the L$ depreciated from 1:200 to 1:300. Then Anshe Chung got upset. Her revenues had dropped by about $US5,000 a month. So she said that if LL didnt do something to stabilise the market then she would create her own inworld tokens and back them with hard cash

and Supply Linden was born

the back story is here: http://forums-archive.secondlife.com/130/5f/97111/14.html

Anshe Chung had a point back then. LL were gearing up to print new sims, mega expansion, and you can't have both at the same time. A super expansion of new sims and a continually depreciating currency in which tenant parcel rentals are paid

also I read somewhere else once (cant remember exactly now) it recovered to 1:270 pretty quickly then tighten to 1:240 and then drifted out to 1:260, and then was a long slow appreciation to 1:247 where it stayed for quite a while (the ongoing shrinkage of sims over the period had a lot to do with this I think), and now the L$ is depreciating again

the big question for sure is what is Supply Linden doing ?

a) is Supply Linden totally out of the market and residents are dumping ? Not likely

b) or is it that Governor Linden has told her Minister of the Exchequer to get into some quantative easing, to help alleviate the suffering of her remaining consumer subjects with the last remaining not maxxed out RL credit cards ? Possible but only in part

c) or has the Governor been advised by her Minister of Lands that his projection is that the end to land shrinkage is in sight, due to the success of the tiers reduction programme for private sims. That the long term projection is that the total land mass has stabilised and no future significant sim shrinkage or sim growth is forseeable. Accordingly, with a stable land mass (a amelioration of resident-to-resident rental competition), a depreciation of L$ is now in order, to stimulate the share of L$ spend toward inworld and marketplace consumer purchases of content and services

Curious minds what want to knows (:

ps. I think it's actually c), assuming that there is a rational reason for what's happening

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Rya Nitely wrote:


Phil Deakins wrote:

It's not all that long ago when it was up at ~260. So stop whining. 

Why do you say over 4 years is not long ago?

Thank you for the string of posts just to reply to one post :)

To answer to your question in this one, it's because over 4 years ago (if that's when it was) isn't long ago at all. Those who were around back then, and cashing out, knew the exchange rate, and they know that it fluctuates. Newer people may not be aware that it fluctuates, which is why I conjectured that they find the current changes troubling. The current fluctuations are very small and amount to next to nothing, or, as someone else put it, it's "miniscule". Before I decided to shut up shop I was cashing out well over a million L$ each and every month, and the difference that the recent changes would have made to me wouldn't have bothered me in the slightest.

So I don't see anything to moan about, even if not everyone who views it as being hugely negative actually moaned/whined. By all means discuss it, but there have been whines and moans that it's costing <the posters> real money that makes a significant difference to their RLs. Yeah, right.

ETA: In your next post after the one that this reply is to, you used the phrase "huge impact" to describe the current change. You see why I posted? It's not a huge impact. It's a miniscule one.

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thank you, thank you. I'm going to make myself a cup of coffee and then read that old thread. You are probably off to bed soon being midnight there :matte-motes-wink:. Hope I'd catch you before you go. 

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is 12:40am. Is Saturday now (:

and I am on some lonely SL island dancing round by myself with the jango radio playing 3 Days Grace, Hinder, Breaking Benjamin and others like that.  And me doing stuff in about 6 other internets windows at the same time

altho we did have pretty good chat before with a SL boatie guy from Italy for nearly about a hour, which was pretty fun and interesting (:

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Phil Deakins wrote:


Thank you for the string of posts just to reply to one post
:)

My pleasure, I'm glad you appreciated it :)

 


Phil Deakins wrote:


Before I decided to shut up shop I was cashing out well over a million L$ each and every month,


Also interesting and raises curiosity. I do remember you whining  had something against the MP or something like that, but that's off topic. Why would one shut the door on that kind of money.:matte-motes-confused:


Phil Deakins wrote:


It's a miniscule one.

 It's definitely mimiscule for someone like you, who can do the above. But for most folk money matters. If it goes from 248 to 260, an increase of 12 points - that equates to about $US180 less a month for me (all else being equal). Most people would consider that to be a bit more than mimiscule.

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Rya Nitely wrote:

Phil Deakins wrote:


Before I decided to shut up shop I was cashing out well over a million L$ each and every month,


Also interesting and raises curiosity. I do remember you
whining
  had something against the MP or something like that, but that's off topic.

I objected to it, yes. Not whined - objected
;)
That said, the marketplace really
was
a huge deal for inworld businesses. So big a deal that it's almost killed them off. So whining about it would have been justified.

Why would one shut the door on that kind of money.:matte-motes-confused:

I got bored with it, that's why. But I didn't literally shut the door. I merely allowed it to fade away naturally, so I didn't make anything else or do anything with a view to sales. I'm not daft enough to actually shut the door on a flow of money that I don't need to lift a finger to earn lol. That was probably about 6 or 7 years ago and it's
still
fading away, although it's very close to the end now. More recenlty, I have been doing things (improving things), but only because I fancied doing some programming again, and not with the intention of getting more sales. I have no interest in sales.


Phil Deakins wrote:


It's a miniscule one.

 It's definitely mimiscule for someone like you, who can do the above. But for most folk money matters. If it goes from 248 to 260, an increase of 12 points - that equates to about $US180 less a month for me (all else being equal).
Most people would consider that to be a bit more than mimiscule.

But it hasn't gone up to 260. Currently the change is just a few points. However, the more RL money you lose with such a small change (you suggested from 247 to 260) the more RL money you are making. In other words, losing US$180 a month would mean that you are making a heck of a lot more because the difference is around 5% - it's a loss of ~5%, which means you're be making well over US$2000 a month, so forgive me if I don't weep if it goes up to 260 and you lose US$180 a month, because it's not going to change your life. It's pretty much a drop in your personal ocean.

The only ones for whom it wouldn't be miniscule are those who earn a LOT less than you but they aren't going to lose US$180 a month if it goes to 260. They're going to lose ~5%, just like you but, for them, it'll just be a few dollars - a drop in their personal oceans.

At the moment, the change is what? about 5L$? That's about what? 2%? It's miniscule for all earning levels, especially since it's not people's RL livelihoods (except maybe the odd handful of people). It's only a fun hobby.

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Judging by your graphic, it's a long way from 260, although that figure might be reached before too much longer. It's where the bulk of the sell orders are that matters, and not what the highest few are. The bulk starts at 251 and then 250, although you could count 252 as well. There are always some higher ones, but they don't count.

However, there are significant amounts above those two or three that could cause the bulk figures to go up as people decide not to wait for the higher ones to be sold off. It does look like that's what's happening, and it will only drive the actual value up. It's those market forces that I've mentioned a couple of times. At the moment it's around 250-252 but looking like it may go higher.

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Phil Deakins wrote:


At the moment, the change is what? about 5L$? That's about what? 2%? It's miniscule for all earning levels, especially since it's not people's RL livelihood (expect maybe the odd handful of people). It's only a fun hobby.


This is going to be my RL livelihood. I'll be giving up my job in the near future. I work hard for this money. I keep pushing on even when I'm exhausted - it's not a hobby for me. So yes, while I'm not complaining about the changes it will have an impact. The $180 would cover my internet bill, mobile phone bill and Netflix, with some change.

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I know it might be hard to believe but ues, someone has quite a bit of money to trade on the market and until 70 million got thrown on the market the other day 10 million at 252, 10 million at 253, 20 million at 254, 10 million at 255, they were leaving an 11 to 12 point spread.

The profit for a trade is a 10 point spread.

For a stack of 10 million linden trading about 10 times a month, maybe a little more, they are making...I think it was US $1,500 a month for each stack.

I've been slipping in some small trades here and there and that's why I know exactly what's going on.

Just trading around 1 million linden I've been pushing the 70k a month trade limits, that's how fast it's been moving since I've learned to spot when they are about to cause the market to move.

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definately seems like the lindex is in trouble. We are at 257 now!

I think the buy-down, summer and Sansar on the horizon are creating a bit of a storm.

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Rya Nitely wrote:


Phil Deakins wrote:


At the moment, the change is what? about 5L$? That's about what? 2%? It's miniscule for all earning levels, especially since it's not people's RL livelihood (expect maybe the odd handful of people). It's only a fun hobby.


This is going to be my RL livelihood. I'll be giving up my job in the near future. I work hard for this money. I keep pushing on even when I'm exhausted - it's not a hobby for me. So yes, while I'm not complaining about the changes it will have an impact. The $180 would cover my internet bill, mobile phone bill and Netflix, with some change.

Then I wish you very well with it. Since SL is so changeable, do you really think it's wise to give up an RL job? Then again, if RL jobs are easy enough to come by for you, it may well be a good move for you, but you have to accept all the changeabilities, including those in the currency exchange. I would venture to say that, what's being seen now in the exchange should not cause you any concern at all. By that, I mean that it would be very unwise to give up an RL job if losing US$180 a month would make an impact on your RL finacial wellbeing. If you read the archived thread that was linked to, you'll know that the exchange rate was up at 300 at that time. Losing US$180 a month should not put your RL livelihood in any sort of straights. Things can change quickly in SL, and RL finacial wellbeing should be reasonably secure against significant changes.

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Rya Nitely wrote:

 

This is going to be my RL livelihood. I'll be giving up my job in the near future. I work hard for this money. I keep pushing on even when I'm exhausted - it's not a hobby for me. So yes, while I'm not complaining about the changes it will have an impact. The $180 would cover my internet bill, mobile phone bill and Netflix, with some change.

Rya, please take this in the manner in which it's intended but if $180 either way is an issue (i'm sure it's not but....) then this isn't the right path for you.

Using SL as an only source of income is fine, i've been there too but it's also the same as working as a freelance contractor (been there too).  You have good contracts, you have ones that aren't so good and you have to balance it all out. 

You're not in control of the money market, nor the sales market, nor any of the other whims that LL may chose to bestow upon the residents thus you really are at their mercy.

Sales on SL are competitive, as is the cashing out process.  If that's not within your comfort zone, choose a different path.

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I don't think telling to people to suck it up is very helpful.  The thing is the Linden has been extremely stable for the past few years and people are trying to figure out what has suddenly changed.  Right now it may not seem significant (to some) but without trying to figure out the cause what's to prevent it from getting worse?

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People are not saying "suck it up". They are saying (rightly) that your business plan should factor these things in if you dont want to get nasty surprises. Thats just a fact. Nobody is being mean. Merely saying, in light of this new phenomena, it might be worth re-evaluating your plans.

Whatever you choose to do I wish you well Rya!

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The L$'s value could very well drop further. In fact, it could very well be panic selling (which would be the reason to buy if one were of the speculative sort). But on the other hand it could be a concerted effort by Supply Linden to drive down the L$s value to adjust for RL currency exchange rates (as I've mumbled about above), in which case it's not gonna go back up again any time soon.

But most importantly, I want to reiterate that a certain amount of decline in the L$'s value does not equal a corresponding decline in a merchant's income. Just because they need to sell more L$s to bring in the same number of US$s doesn't mean they'll end up bringing in fewer US$s total. They may, but only if their products don't get the increased sales volume they should, given their lower cost in RL currency terms.

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Well here is a news flash. 251 is the least of our concerns 

It seems have started dropping the same time Linden Labs started charging a credit processing fee, instead of the $1 fee.

I thought that they were suppose to freeze the lindex when there was a big change in the linden value? I know that with the new fees most folks are now selling their linden in bigger chunks to save on the fee since there is a $15 max fee charge. So now intead of people posting small chunks of linden they are saving and then dumping huge amounts. I wonder if this why the linden value is now for the first time in over 10 years at 256/$1 USD??

1.5% fee (minimum $3.00 USD fee, maximum $15.00 USD fee )

 

L$256 / US$1.00 L$11,640,658
L$255 / US$1.00 L$11,734,723
L$254 / US$1.00 L$8,803,912
L$253 / US$1.00 L$12,372,402
L$252 / US$1.00 L$22,488,065
L$251 / US$1.00

L$108,561,39

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A correction:-

This isn't the first time in over 10 years at 256. If you read the whole thread, you would know that it's just about 10 years ago that it was around 300. Also it's 4 years or so ago that it was at 260. That's all in the thread, but you have to follow the link to an archived thread to see the 300.

You may be right about the change to the credit processing fees causing people to save up and then put larger amounts for sale. It sounds very plausible.

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OMG I am only gone 2 days and what in GOD'S name has happened?  It dropped 7 points when I last saw it at 251!!!   I'm sorry was my post not clear?  PEOPLE!  Stop panicing!   This is frustrating.  I'm not one to be hasty but this has me having 2nd thoughts wondering where we are headed.  Cut yer losses and sell or risk losing a lot more and wait for the hurricane to pass through....  Any suggestions?

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Rya, like others have said it would be prudent to not bet your house on it. Do it for sure, but it is business. Business can be pretty unforgiving when we don't financially plan for rainy days. For when the market shifts, and new products and new methods of creating product come. New financial regulations and constraints are introduced, etc etc

Listen to people like Sassy and Phil. Both were really successful SL-wise then the market shifted on them. Phil chose to retire. Not sure what Sassy is doing now, but she do still have the design chops. Pamela as well. Pamela had to adapt. It nearly killed her, but she perserved and continues to adapt to whatever the market chucks at her  

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OzwellWayfarer wrote:

regarding the saving up to cash out - thats exactly what I am doing, and am one of the small fish. I imagine many others are doing the same 

thanks

more relevant info to add to the mix

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