Is Lindenlab choosing a doomed path for SL ? Tell us if the EEP and PBR introduction changed the way you play SL

[Rowan Amore]

10 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

I think what's important is Concurrent Users, and this is a dying game.

taken from: https://danielvoyager.wordpress.com/second-life-statistics/

 

NOW

Second Life User Daily Concurrency Level – Updated: 10th June 2024

• Maximum: 43, 000 – 48, 000 (average)
• Median: 34, 000 – 38, 000 (average)
• Minimum: 27, 000 – 29, 000 (average)

 

PEAK

88, 220 – 29th March 2009 at 1:28pm SLT

 

Historical

• 60, 068 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 13th April 2020
• 57, 746 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 25th March 2021
• 55, 737 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 5th February 2022
• 53, 567 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 30th January 2023
• 53, 016 – 19th February 2024 (so far)
• 88, 220 – 29th March 2009 at 1:28pm SLT – highest peak ever!
• 86, 584 – 15th March 2009 at 3:57pm SLT
• 81, 913 – 28th February 2009 at 2:50pm SLT
• 80, 000 – 12th January 2009
• 70, 821 – 21st September 2008 at 1:58pm SLT
• 60, 000 – 14th January 2008 at 1:45pm SLT

 

So what do we see?

Game peaked in 2009 and has been slowly declining ever since.

So what will make it better?

Shove a Alpha Release down everyone's throat ??

 

With this data I predict after this Alpha Release gets implemented 2 things.

#1 Concurrent users fall below 30,000

#2 CEO of Linden Labs has to find a new job

 

After all Concurrent Users = Sales

Sales Plummet after a bad call from higher management = Sales Plummet

And any of us in this economy, with products or sims will bare the brunt of this and the game will sadly quietly go away.

It doesn't have too, but this is the outcome that has been chosen.

 

 

 

 

Yes, SL has been dying since 2009.  Nothing new to report.  Will PBR nail the coffin lid?  I predict, no.

[Caitlin Tobias]

19 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

I think what's important is Concurrent Users, and this is a dying game.

 

 

[Jase Devin]

7 minutes ago, Caitlin Tobias said:

After the Alpha Implementation and LL goes bankrupt. Your log in screen. Sad really if you actually cared about SL you would contribute.

[Irina Forwzy]

31 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

I think what's important is Concurrent Users, and this is a dying game.

taken from: https://danielvoyager.wordpress.com/second-life-statistics/

 

NOW

Second Life User Daily Concurrency Level – Updated: 10th June 2024

• Maximum: 43, 000 – 48, 000 (average)
• Median: 34, 000 – 38, 000 (average)
• Minimum: 27, 000 – 29, 000 (average)

 

PEAK

88, 220 – 29th March 2009 at 1:28pm SLT

 

Historical

• 60, 068 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 13th April 2020
• 57, 746 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 25th March 2021
• 55, 737 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 5th February 2022
• 53, 567 was the highest peak for Maximum Daily Concurrency – 30th January 2023
• 53, 016 – 19th February 2024 (so far)
• 88, 220 – 29th March 2009 at 1:28pm SLT – highest peak ever!
• 86, 584 – 15th March 2009 at 3:57pm SLT
• 81, 913 – 28th February 2009 at 2:50pm SLT
• 80, 000 – 12th January 2009
• 70, 821 – 21st September 2008 at 1:58pm SLT
• 60, 000 – 14th January 2008 at 1:45pm SLT

 

So what do we see?

Game peaked in 2009 and has been slowly declining ever since.

So what will make it better?

Shove a Alpha Release down everyone's throat ??

 

With this data I predict after this Alpha Release gets implemented 2 things.

#1 Concurrent users fall below 30,000

#2 CEO of Linden Labs has to find a new job

 

After all Concurrent Users = Sales

Sales Plummet after a bad call from higher management = Sales Plummet

And any of us in this economy, with products or sims will bare the brunt of this and the game will sadly quietly go away.

It doesn't have too, but this is the outcome that has been chosen.

 

 

 

 

First, Linden Labs has investment. Those investors and the finance team will be reviewing the numbers for the next quarter and the subsequent next.  They won't go back, despite what everyone thinks and remove PBR. That's a lot of project development cost.

But what they may do, is introduce maintenance cases that fix some of the latency issues with it and may add the ALM.  As well as let the other viewers into SL for the time being, then once they fix 80% to 90% then start to block the old viewers.

If stuff goes really south Accounting isn't going to stay silent lol.

Edited Tuesday at 08:52 PM by Irina Forwzy
Additional Context

[Irina Forwzy]

1 minute ago, Jase Devin said:

After the Alpha Implementation and LL goes bankrupt. Your log in screen. Sad really if you actually cared about SL you would contribute.

This may be another issue, and not caused by PBR. I've had this happen in the past.

[Zalificent Corvinus]

33 minutes ago, Irina Forwzy said:

This may be another issue, and not caused by PBR. I've had this happen in the past.

What he meant was "When LL go bust, from driving off too many paying customers with Goose-Stepping Futureness Cultist approved anti-technology, and SL's servers are switched OFF, that standard error message is what you will see when you try and log into a grid that no longer exists.

 

Edited Tuesday at 09:25 PM by Zalificent Corvinus

[Modulated]

13 minutes ago, Irina Forwzy said:

This may be another issue, and not caused by PBR. I've had this happen in the past.

It's not because of PBR...I don't even know why it's suggested.

[Scylla Rhiadra]

1 hour ago, Ayashe Ninetails said:

Are you still having performance issues, by the way?

Oh yes, but they're not at all dire. I can still use ultra for photos, explore, go to places where there are a lot of people, etc. And I'm gradually putting together a library of new EEPs that don't look just incredibly cruddy in the new viewers, so I'm fine.

On my sky platform I can use Very High and get 30 to 40 FPS. At ground level it drops to about 20 or thereabouts, but I don't expect to wander around at Very High all the time anyway.

[Jase Devin]

18 minutes ago, Irina Forwzy said:

First, Linden Labs has investment. Those investors and the finance team will be reviewing the numbers for the next quarter and the subsequent next.  They won't go back, despite what everyone thinks and remove PBR. That's a lot of project development cost.

But what they may do, is introduce maintenance cases that fix some of the latency issues with it and may add the ALM.  As well as let the other viewers into SL for the time being, then once they fix 80% to 90% then start to block the old viewers.

If stuff goes really south Accounting isn't going to stay silent lol.

Actually I think whats going to happen here all revolves around AMAZON.

Concurrent User = Sales

Which also reflect Sim Rentals, in turn reflects Server rental from Amazon.

So will LL be able to scale down and still stay afloat is the question really.

Mainland is Continents, my guess 1/3 cpu per Mainland sim via the 40 user max, can they scale down mainland? When some of those sims are empty, turn them into open space maybe? 1/8 cpu?

I think they can, and private sims maybe 16 sims = 1 server, go ahead consolidate and start shutting servers down.

Then employees, start laying off to scale down.

But at some point scaling down may not work so well, there's a point in a business model where above this its profitable and below this its not, no matter how much you scale down.

[Love Zhaoying]

Y'all aren't very good at this "making stuff up" business!

First of all, it has to be "believable". (At least by the "tin hat crowd".)

Second, someone has to think you aren't just trying to "stir the pot".

Thirdly, the "sky is falling" and "world is ending" threads are a dime a dozen. So, you have to contribute something new and novel for people to even bother reading it. A new conspiracy theory, for example.

I could go on..and on..

[Ayashe Ninetails]

16 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Oh yes, but they're not at all dire. I can still use ultra for photos, explore, go to places where there are a lot of people, etc. And I'm gradually putting together a library of new EEPs that don't look just incredibly cruddy in the new viewers, so I'm fine.

On my sky platform I can use Very High and get 30 to 40 FPS. At ground level it drops to about 20 or thereabouts, but I don't expect to wander around at Very High all the time anyway.

That doesn't sound too bad at all if you're using older hardware. 

I haven't yet touched the EEP issues. I still need to find some PBR stuffs to see what it all looks like, too. I really just wanted to make sure I wasn't having serious problems while all this is still shiny and new and everyone's jumping in and playing with it so I don't have to try and flounder around in 6 months on my own like WTH do I do nowwwww how do I fix thisssssss? lol

So far so good, though.

[AmeliaJ08]

7 hours ago, Dorientje Woller said:

Or switch to AMD or Intel ARC cards ... I haven't heard those owners complain yet.

Intel ARC is a complete mystery haha, I have seen exactly one person on this forum give their experience of using one for SL. I think they said it was mostly-ok though. It was a while ago though, nothing PBR specific.

I doubt Intel have put much effort into their OpenGL drivers because why would they, dead API and they have far more important work to be doing.

Edited Tuesday at 09:32 PM by AmeliaJ08

[Zalificent Corvinus]

9 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

Concurrent User = Sales

First of all, don't read too much into the drop in concurrency since 2009.

the 2006-2009 figures are misleading.

Seem, there was a media sensation then, "Woman becomes first person to make $1,000,000 buying and selling imaginary land in a computer game!".

MILLIONS of Clueless, Worthless, Useless people poured into SL, in the belief that investing a WHOLE $50 would kick-start their effortless ride to millionaire status.

Then, late 2008/early 2009, the bottom fell out of the amateur land flipper wannabe market, and prices for non-roadside, non coastal middle of nowhere G rated drek dropped below 12 shopping tokens a square meter.

Millions of clueless, worthless, useless people who were never here to "play the game" all ran out the door screaming "The End is Nigh! FLEE!"

 

So yeah, 2009, concurrency 88k, and about 40k of those ere clueless, worthless, useless people.

That's why SL didn't close down in 2009/2010. Losing clueless, worthless, useless people made sod all difference to the platforms viability.

 

16 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

my guess 1/3 cpu per Mainland sim via the 40 user max

it's been 1 full region per cpu core, for most of SL's history.

 

17 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

private sims maybe 16 sims = 1 server

Full Private estate regions don't use any less resources than full mainland regions.

 

 

[Jase Devin]

10 minutes ago, Zalificent Corvinus said:

it's been 1 full region per cpu core, for most of SL's history.

Full Private estate regions don't use any less resources than full mainland regions.

So mainland is 1 full cpu per sim? Why 40 avs only then?

I speak of a 16 Core Server , when I talk about Private sims.

[Theresa Tennyson]

1 hour ago, Jase Devin said:

I didn't know that, thanks for the enlightenment!

Yeah blame others I guess hahahah.

 

Speaking of which, if you'd post your system specs and describe exactly what's happening somebody might be able to help you solve your problems.

[Love Zhaoying]

Just now, Theresa Tennyson said:

Speaking of which, if you'd post your system specs and describe exactly what's happening somebody might be able to help you solve your problems.

We could start a thread, "Post your PBR problems so we can help you!"

[BriannaLovey]

2 minutes ago, Love Zhaoying said:

We could start a thread, "Post your PBR problems so we can help you!"

I started a group inworld for people not wanting to use PBR viewers in order to help them too

[Love Zhaoying]

Just now, BriannaLovey said:

4 minutes ago, Love Zhaoying said:

We could start a thread, "Post your PBR problems so we can help you!"

I started a group inworld for people not wanting to use PBR viewers in order to help them too

Hmm..that sounds like a "Support Group".  Is it based on the 12-Step model?

[Ceka Cianci]

43 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

Actually I think whats going to happen here all revolves around AMAZON.

Concurrent User = Sales

Which also reflect Sim Rentals, in turn reflects Server rental from Amazon.

So will LL be able to scale down and still stay afloat is the question really.

Mainland is Continents, my guess 1/3 cpu per Mainland sim via the 40 user max, can they scale down mainland? When some of those sims are empty, turn them into open space maybe? 1/8 cpu?

I think they can, and private sims maybe 16 sims = 1 server, go ahead consolidate and start shutting servers down.

Then employees, start laying off to scale down.

But at some point scaling down may not work so well, there's a point in a business model where above this its profitable and below this its not, no matter how much you scale down.

The 2020 numbers are from when covid was going on.. there was an increase in users in 2020. The drop/decline could be some of them returning to their jobs or lives as things went back to normal as much as they could.

So LL was running and staying afloat  with less before 2019 and 2020..

[Scylla Rhiadra]

27 minutes ago, Ayashe Ninetails said:

That doesn't sound too bad at all if you're using older hardware.

No, it's quite manageable. My objections to PBR have never really related to my own case: my computer, ancient though it is, can still handle this with a reasonably comfortable margin.

28 minutes ago, Ayashe Ninetails said:

I haven't yet touched the EEP issues. I still need to find some PBR stuffs to see what it all looks like, too. I really just wanted to make sure I wasn't having serious problems while all this is still shiny and new and everyone's jumping in and playing with it so I don't have to try and flounder around in 6 months on my own like WTH do I do nowwwww how do I fix thisssssss? lol

So far so good, though.

Insofar as any of my whining has been about ME, personally, it's with regards to how old EEPs look (i.e., mostly absolutely terrible). As I say, though, I'm building up a library, and will be spending some time teaching myself how to tweak my custom ones to make them work. But there are some good ones becoming available (although there are also some not very good ones.)

For the moment (and indeed for the foreseeable future), however, I'll be using an older version of BD for snaps, as I really don't want to be bothered struggling with the lighting for those right now.

[Zalificent Corvinus]

11 minutes ago, Jase Devin said:

So mainland is 1 full cpu per sim? Why 40 avs only then?

For the EXACT same reason most fulkl estate regions are only 40-50 avatars, more lags like molasses in wintertime.

And before you say something like "But Infamous Noob Pit, Laghole City is set to 70", yeah that's called being bloody stupid.

Before you say "But the Shop n hops are 65" those are not "standard full regions", those are the deluxe high capacity "Event" regions.

 

Event regions were launched at 900 bucks a month, and a claim they could hold 200 avatars. LL admitted they hadn't ACTUAL:LY tested them with 200 avatars, but had only PRETENDED to test them.

They tended to crash and burn long before the 200 limit claimed.

So rebranded as 175 avatar regions, for 450 bucks a month, sales improved, a certain well known mesh head brand rented a couple for an xmas giveaway. They tended to crash and burn of you went over 110 avatars.

The Moles using them for the shop n hop that year set them to 65.

 

Just because some wiki page says "100 avatars max allowed on a full region" doesn't mean it's a good idea to try.

 

[Love Zhaoying]

4 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Insofar as any of my whining has been about ME, personally, it's with regards to how old EEPs look (i.e., mostly absolutely terrible).

I LOVE it when your whining is about YOU! To my ears, it's between a growl and a purr.

 

[DevlinMcDermott]

I'm completely disgusted. 

I have a four-month-old factory-built, custom-made Dell and two four-year-old Dells. NONE of them can run PBR!  They seem good enough to run Podcasts, stream videos, and even 3d modeling in Blender.  But is it not good enough to run Second Life? Really. 

Before this upgrade, Firestorm was the BEST running viewer for SL in decades, even surpassing the official Second Life one!

After being a Second Life resident since 2008,. I'm simply out of luck and have to say goodbye to Second Life.  Because I'm not going to fork over another $2,000 just to run SL.

Thanks a lot Linden Labs is this how you treat your customer base? It's not a good way to run a business, you know.  

In my case, a customer who has over the decades forked out thousands of dollars in your virtual world? I simply have to abandon the virtual life and world it took me over a decade to build, not to mention the countless friendships I formed there. 

I'm sure I'm not the only one given the outcry I'm seeing in the official Second Life forums, Redditt and elsewhere. 

The only ones that seem to be happy for this PBR seem to be content creators and SL merchants. 

But haven't they seen how SL has become a virtual 'Dead Mall' since it's heyday back in 2012?  And it's about to get a whole lot emptier. 

Good luck with your shops when there are no more avatars  around to buy your bright PBR shiny virtual wares.  When all that's left visiting them will be Weeboo Ghost bots and the occasional naked newbie Noobs. Having gotten lost on their way to the seedy Red-Light District of SL. 

I've said my peace. 

Goodbye Second Life and Liden Labs, and thanks a lot for abandoning loyal customers. 

[Modulated]

7 minutes ago, DevlinMcDermott said:

I'm completely disgusted. 

I have a four-month-old factory-built, custom-made Dell and two four-year-old Dells. NONE of them can run PBR!  They seem good enough to run Podcasts, stream videos, and even 3d modeling in Blender.  But is it not good enough to run Second Life? Really. 

Before this upgrade, Firestorm was the BEST running viewer for SL in decades, even surpassing the official Second Life one!

After being a Second Life resident since 2008,. I'm simply out of luck and have to say goodbye to Second Life.  Because I'm not going to fork over another $2,000 just to run SL.

Thanks a lot Linden Labs is this how you treat your customer base? It's not a good way to run a business, you know.  

In my case, a customer who has over the decades forked out thousands of dollars in your virtual world? I simply have to abandon the virtual life and world it took me over a decade to build, not to mention the countless friendships I formed there. 

I'm sure I'm not the only one given the outcry I'm seeing in the official Second Life forums, Redditt and elsewhere. 

The only ones that seem to be happy for this PBR seem to be content creators and SL merchants. 

But haven't they seen how SL has become a virtual 'Dead Mall' since it's heyday back in 2012?  And it's about to get a whole lot emptier. 

Good luck with your shops when there are no more avatars  around to buy your bright PBR shiny virtual wares.  When all that's left visiting them will be Weeboo Ghost bots and the occasional naked newbie Noobs. Having gotten lost on their way to the seedy Red-Light District of SL. 

I've said my peace. 

Goodbye Second Life and Liden Labs, and thanks a lot for abandoning loyal customers. 

If any of them are using only integrated graphics, that's probably why. Post some specs, please.

[Luna Bliss]

socks, socks, everywhere socks!