Why is the Land Market Doing So Poorly?

[Ingrid Ingersoll]

13 hours ago, Teresa Firelight said:

LL is a business. They create SL not just for our pleasure, but also to pay the bills. That means that some things in it cannot be free.

I don't think anyone expects free land but given the amount of un-owned land, and the amount of people in sl who aren't land owners, I would think there could be an improvement in that ratio if they re-considered the tier level costs. 

[AzureWaves]

The amount of abandoned (nearly full) regions on Mainland is astounding. Is Linden Lab paying attention? https://www.bonniebots.com/abandoned-land

[Qie Niangao]

It's not really relevant to the OP's timeframe but it's one reason tier adjustments are tricky: The Lab has been gradually but steadily ratcheting down the recurring cost of owning land, in a kind of tick-tock between Mainland and Estate fees. Because the most recent reduction was for Estate fees, there's pressure on Mainland being relatively overpriced in this delicate balancing act of demand. It goes back a few cycles over the past few years, including:

• March 6, 2023: Estate Full Region prices reduced from $229 to $209
• November 17, 2022: Mainland tier reduced across the board (entire region $175 to $166)
• May 29, 2019: Estate Full Region prices reduced from $249 to $229
• ? missing a Mainland "tick" for these Estate "tocks" ?
• June 20, 2018: Estate Full Region prices reduced from $295 to $249
• March 14, 2018: "reduced Mainland costs by over 10 percent" (entire region $195 to $175) and raised Premium "bonus" from 512 to 1024 m²

It's maybe a stretch to think the Mainland market is currently depressed because Estate prices dropped by $20/month back in March… but it didn't help. And I expect Estate owners will complain (again) the next time Mainland tier drops.

And anyway, it's pretty clear that over time, Mainland's price advantage has narrowed:

[diamond Marchant]

56 minutes ago, AzureWaves said:

The amount of abandoned (nearly full) regions on Mainland is astounding. Is Linden Lab paying attention?

I suspect Linden Lab is paying attention. It's not clear that there is any easy way to occupy these spaces in a profitable way, given that Second Life is likely shrinking.  However, they might be able to decrease the expense of keeping abandoned regions on the grid by load balancing the binding of simulators to computing machinery. In other words, allocate resources to regions that are used and give minimal resources to unused regions. Load balancing would have to be dynamic for this to work. Consequently, I would not expect them to do it for "technical reasons"

Edited May 25, 2023 by diamond Marchant

[Love Zhaoying]

49 minutes ago, Qie Niangao said:

It's not really relevant to the OP's timeframe but it's one reason tier adjustments are tricky: The Lab has been gradually but steadily ratcheting down the recurring cost of owning land, in a kind of tick-tock between Mainland and Estate fees. Because the most recent reduction was for Estate fees, there's pressure on Mainland being relatively overpriced in this delicate balancing act of demand. It goes back a few cycles over the past few years, including:

• March 6, 2023: Estate Full Region prices reduced from $229 to $209
• November 17, 2022: Mainland tier reduced across the board (entire region $175 to $166)
• May 29, 2019: Estate Full Region prices reduced from $249 to $229
• ? missing a Mainland "tick" for these Estate "tocks" ?
• June 20, 2018: Estate Full Region prices reduced from $295 to $249
• March 14, 2018: "reduced Mainland costs by over 10 percent" (entire region $195 to $175) and raised Premium "bonus" from 512 to 1024 m²

It's maybe a stretch to think the Mainland market is currently depressed because Estate prices dropped by $20/month back in March… but it didn't help. And I expect Estate owners will complain (again) the next time Mainland tier drops.

And anyway, it's pretty clear that over time, Mainland's price advantage has narrowed:

Before I closely read your post, I thought you were saying there was less total Estate land at a quicker rate than Mainland.

But now that I read your post more closely, I understand that this graph is showing "price differential" of some sort.  What does the number 0-300 on the Y-Axis mean? (Change in prices up/down, actual prices, etc.?)

Please be patient with me, I am dense, slow, and have low comprehension.

 

[diamond Marchant]

58 minutes ago, Love Zhaoying said:

What does the number 0-300 on the Y-Axis mean?

That is US dollars per month that Linden Lab charges for either a Mainland region or an Estate region. The graph shows the actual costs per month and one must compute or visualize the actual differential. At present, the difference is $43 ($209 - $166). In 2018, the difference was $100 ($295-$195).

[Qie Niangao]

17 minutes ago, diamond Marchant said:

That is US dollars per month that Linden Lab charges for either a Mainland region or an Estate region. The graph shows the actual costs per month and one must compute or visualize the actual differential. At present, the difference is $43 ($209 - $166). In 2018, the difference was $100 ($295-$195).

Yes thanks, exactly. Sorry. It wasn't the best chart ever, that's for sure. I'm operating through a network outage, connected by mobile hotspot, and feel like I'm connected to reality through an acoustic-coupled modem.

[Love Zhaoying]

So, if i understand - the cost to own Estates has gone down, more than the cost to own Mainland (tier costs).

This is very interesting! Thank you for all the detailed information and explanation!

I do see how, addressing the OP, this change could have a negative impact on the Mainland market.

[encidious Opus]

22 hours ago, Teresa Firelight said:

LL is a business. They create SL not just for our pleasure, but also to pay the bills. That means that some things in it cannot be free.

Land used to cost a lot more than it does now, but other things (like buying Lindens) were a LOT less expensive. When the price of one thing goes down, the price of something else must go up.

Personally I dont think I want to see them lower the tier structure cuz other things I depend on will get more expensive to compensate.

"Let them eat cake" 😉

[Persephone Emerald]

47 minutes ago, encidious Opus said:

"Let them eat cake" 😉

The cake is a lie.

[Coffee Pancake]

Just bought some land and wow .. yes, the bottom has fallen out of the market. 1L per sqm for M mainland

G mainland - L$ 0.4 per sqm

A mainland - L$ 4.19 per sqm

Talking to a few friends to sell some land .. and yeah the barons are cutting tier and ditching the bulk, "premium" land like Horizons or Bay aren't selling either, but they aren't prepared to take a bath on that just yet. This isn't just "metaverse" investment tourists moving on, this is long term bulk land holders pulling back. The big push to be both baron and landlord by renting the land for sale has come and gone, there isn't any place left to go but down and out.

This is bad .. for an economy that's based around land to the degree SL is.

Mainland consolidation might be in our future .. pick a tent pole continent and sink it. make everyone relocate like we had to for Zinda.

[Love Zhaoying]

26 minutes ago, Coffee Pancake said:

Just bought some land and wow .. yes, the bottom has fallen out of the market. 1L per sqm for M mainland

G mainland - L$ 0.4 per sqm

A mainland - L$ 4.19 per sqm

Talking to a few friends to sell some land .. and yeah the barons are cutting tier and ditching the bulk, "premium" land like Horizons or Bay aren't selling either, but they aren't prepared to take a bath on that just yet. This isn't just "metaverse" investment tourists moving on, this is long term bulk land holders pulling back. The big push to be both baron and landlord by renting the land for sale has come and gone, there isn't any place left to go but down and out.

This is bad .. for an economy that's based around land to the degree SL is.

Mainland consolidation might be in our future .. pick a tent pole continent and sink it. make everyone relocate like we had to for Zinda.

Hmm..if land barons who are renting out land go away, where will the renters go?

[Coffee Pancake]

17 minutes ago, Love Zhaoying said:

Hmm..if land barons who are renting out land go away, where will the renters go?

There is a staggering glut of stacked disposable skybox rentals. They are a blight on mainland.

[Rowan Amore]

23 minutes ago, Love Zhaoying said:

Hmm..if land barons who are renting out land go away, where will the renters go?

Rentals on private estates owned by long standing companies.  Personally, I'd never even consider a mainland rental.

[Rufferta]

I'm worried.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Rufferta
Decided not to say "The sky is falling".

[Love Zhaoying]

Hopefully if the land market gets bad enough, prices for 2X land will stop being so stupidly outrageous. 

[elleevelyn]

On 5/22/2023 at 11:03 AM, diamond Marchant said:

anyone can construct a 3D model for "give me a cross between an F/A 18C Hornet and a Wright flyer".

i don't see this as a bad thing myself for a virtual world

whoever owns the copyright to the designs of the Hornet and Wright flyer could expect and get a royalty payment from the platform, the platform extracting the royalty payment from the person "buying" the cross flyer inworld

from a SL pov

Dear AI, please make me a body like Maitreya but with a bigger bottom than I can get on the sliders with the default Maitreya. Linden till goes cha-ching! Maitreya till goes cha-ching. Buyer, Linden and Maitreya all happy

Dear AI, please make my parcel look like in this photo.  Linden till goes cha-ching, same does every till of every home and garden creator whose products are automagically incorporated in the build. Everybody happy

 

edit add

for AI to be a non-threat then the platform (Linden in this case) should embrace the capability fully.  Is like in the olden days when the music industry did not embrace music streaming.  Ordinary everyday people signed into pirate streams, until the music industry got into streaming themselves

Edited May 26, 2023 by elleevelyn

[elleevelyn]

On 5/22/2023 at 7:44 AM, Prokofy Neva said:

 Bellisseria ... the Lindens' master plan

i was thinking the other day about Premium Plus and the yet to be 2048 homes.  My thought (with no idea if is true or not and probably not) was: has it occurred to Linden to make Premium Plus Homes transferable. And if so then would that transfer be able to be done in L$ within some upper sell/buy limit and some minimum time before can re-sell it (like 2 months, maybe 3)

[diamond Marchant]

2 hours ago, elleevelyn said:

whoever owns the copyright to the designs of the Hornet and Wright flyer could expect and get a royalty payment from the platform, the platform extracting the royalty payment from the person "buying" the cross flyer inworld

Perhaps, after TOS is struck down by litigation 

[Qie Niangao]

4 hours ago, elleevelyn said:

i was thinking the other day about Premium Plus and the yet to be 2048 homes.  My thought (with no idea if is true or not and probably not) was: has it occurred to Linden to make Premium Plus Homes transferable. And if so then would that transfer be able to be done in L$ within some upper sell/buy limit and some minimum time before can re-sell it (like 2 months, maybe 3)

There's something basic here I'm not understanding. The buyer would need a Premium membership to be able to own Mainland at all, right? So the idea would be that the Lab conferred the Premium Plus Mansion to a Premium Plus subscriber for free, and then the PP subscriber sells it to a lowly Premium member who has sufficient tier to hold it, like normal Mainland? I'm not seeing how this would benefit Linden Lab, but I'm not sure I understand the proposal.

[Teresa Firelight]

6 hours ago, elleevelyn said:

i was thinking the other day about Premium Plus and the yet to be 2048 homes.  My thought (with no idea if is true or not and probably not) was: has it occurred to Linden to make Premium Plus Homes transferable. And if so then would that transfer be able to be done in L$ within some upper sell/buy limit and some minimum time before can re-sell it (like 2 months, maybe 3)

I believe one of the keystones of Bellisseria is that it is non-commercial and that people cannot buy/sell anything (including the homes themselves) from Bellisseria based locations.

[Ingrid Ingersoll]

On 5/25/2023 at 12:17 PM, Qie Niangao said:

It's not really relevant to the OP's timeframe but...

all good points.

[Love Zhaoying]

On 5/21/2023 at 3:44 PM, Prokofy Neva said:

Bellisseria -- Bellihub, new Victorian open plan, etc.  attracted even more residents away from the Mainland. And that, after all, is the Lindens' master plan, and from their perspective, it makes sense. Therefore objectively speaking, I have to put it in the "positive" column even if not positive for me.

Too bad it's just a "bedroom community" (pure suburbia in different styles - just homes and parks and a hub).

[elleevelyn]

11 hours ago, Qie Niangao said:

There's something basic here I'm not understanding. The buyer would need a Premium membership to be able to own Mainland at all, right? So the idea would be that the Lab conferred the Premium Plus Mansion to a Premium Plus subscriber for free, and then the PP subscriber sells it to a lowly Premium member who has sufficient tier to hold it, like normal Mainland? I'm not seeing how this would benefit Linden Lab, but I'm not sure I understand the proposal.

 

10 hours ago, Teresa Firelight said:

I believe one of the keystones of Bellisseria is that it is non-commercial and that people cannot buy/sell anything (including the homes themselves) from Bellisseria based locations.

it depends on the direction Linden want to go with the curated inworld experience. As a question: Does Linden want to build a curated inworld shopping experience ?

if the answer is yes (it may be no but suppose was yes) then it would seem  that there be a mechanism where a shop keeper can acquire the neighbouring parcels. Parcels which are owned by other people

for this to be cost/profit neutral to Linden then the rule of one parcel per Premium Plus account still applies. in this case a shop keeper defined as a conglomerate of distinct accounts (all parcels set to same group)

the L$ transfer price being anything from L$0 to say L$2  a meter (L$4,096).  So that if I have a Premium Plus parcel and my neighbour wants to acquire it from me then I can set it to transfer for L$. Is a one time payment/receipt for me. I still have tier in my Premium Plus which I can use to get another parcel for free from Linden, or buy a parcel I particularly want from a willing seller

it can work in a non-commercial setting as well.  A couple want to own two adjacent parcels.  This mechanic allows them to do this more readily when the neighbour is willing to transfer the parcel to one or other of the couple

i don't envisage the transfer ability ever being applied to ordinary Premium 1024 parcels. The non-commercial aspect of Belli 512/1024 is well established and to change this would be pretty much bait and switch.  The Premium Plus 2048 parcel tho has yet to be introduced so it could be done from the outset

Linden would still have Premium Plus residential, non-commercial areas/regions of 2048 parcels

i haven't done the L$/tier numbers exactly, but it may be that Linden can better manage land speculation by setting the max. L$ transfer to less than one months Premium Plus tier, with a min. one month  + 1 day restriction on transferring the property from date of acquiring. This is a losing arbitrage bet for speculators

is not so much about making money, is more about enabling people to acquire neighbouring parcels more easily than the current method of ticket filing, which does lead to less Support Linden staff needed to manage this aspect of the inworld

Edited May 27, 2023 by elleevelyn
typs

[Polenth Yue]

2 hours ago, elleevelyn said:

i haven't done the L$/tier numbers exactly, but it may be that Linden can better manage land speculation by setting the max. L$ transfer to less than one months Premium Plus tier, with a min. one month  + 1 day restriction on transferring the property from date of acquiring. This is a losing arbitrage bet for speculators

is not so much about making money, is more about enabling people to acquire neighbouring parcels more easily than the current method of ticket filing, which does lead to less Support Linden staff needed to manage this aspect of the inworld

I get the impression you thought this would be simple and something that could be tossed out tomorrow, but it really isn't. This also sounds like something that would be harder to code than the alternatives, because it has a lot of extra steps and complications. An automatic system might well happen, but it won't be quick to produce and I wouldn't expect it to be this.

Regardless of that, it'll have no impact on mainland sales either way. Someone who decides they want a 2048 Linden Home is going to go for it, whether they can get it in two seconds or two days. They're not going to suddenly switch to mainland at that point (though they might after time, as I have seen people move to mainland because they want more creative freedom... or just more KittyCats).