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Madelaine McMasters

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Everything posted by Madelaine McMasters

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html Per that story, NYC is now at 21.2% infection rate. Herd immunity, such as it might be, is within sight. Those taking Sweden's position (because they believe it or like me are just trying to understand it) will point to this as evidence that mitigation efforts haven't necessarily worked. The 88% fail rate for ventilation also comes from NYC, allowing for the argument that treatment doesn't work either. Don't confuse my argument here with my beliefs, as Luna so often does. I'm trying to anticipate the arguments that other people will make in support of Sweden's approach, and I'm able to do so in a way I can't summarily dismiss. I often take the "other" side of arguments, sometimes to check my own logic and sometimes to try to understand others'. I live in a world populated by people who see things far differently than I do. They can't all be wrong. They can't all be nuts. They can't all be bad. They can't all be ignorant. I can, at any moment in time, be any of those things. Two years from now, I will look back and see countless errors in my own judgment of all this. I'm working from incomplete and inaccurate data, in a highly politicized world that values simplicity over truth.
  2. Do you think Sweden's head medical guy is looking at data only from inside Sweden. That would be nuts.
  3. That statement implies you are able to study the evidence. I'll need some evidence that's true.
  4. I've been discussing this with my friend who's wife is Swedish and living in Sweden. Because those two are fairly certain that Sweden's gonna have possibly the worst death rate on the planet, resulting in massive damage to their economy, I've taken the counter argument. That's what I do. My counter argument will miss something, I'm sure. I can't imaging taking any stance on COVID-19 that's bullet proof, there's simply so little we know. So, here's my counter argument. First, some presumptions, all of which can be refuted. I make them anyway because they're not trivially rejectable and may be driving the thinking of those people we don't understand... We're not going to have a vaccine or highly effective treatment for 18 months. I don't think there's a lot of argument about this. We might discover some therapies that significantly reduce mortality, but that hasn't happened yet. Hydroxychloroquine looks to be a bust. One NYC hospital system now reports that 88% of the COVID patients put on ventilators eventually died. I have no data regarding less intensive care, such as nasal O2, or other treatments. Still, absent cures and with such horrific ventilator success, there's an argument to be made that the health care system isn't actually improving the numbers by much. We don't have (and aren't likely to get) any numbers showing relative outcomes for those who seek hospitalization vs those who tough it out at home and possibly succumb there. I've seen articles claiming that symptomatic people, uncertain they've got the virus, fear getting it if they seek hospitalization. They also fear financial ruin. We certainly aren't hospitalizing everyone who might benefit. Two antibody studies in California suggest that the total infected population there is far higher than commonly estimated. If that's even 1/10th true, COVID-19 mortality ratios are far lower than currently reported. If the total infected population is far higher than currently estimated, the onset of herd immunity will happen much sooner. Economic damage starts the moment you curtail activity. There's a level of curtailment you can't avoid, simply because most people will alter their behavior in response to falling ill, or witnessing others do so. The damage sustained by curtailing economic activity is neither linear nor immediately reversible. Reducing economic activity by 25% for four months might be worse than reducing it by 5% for 20. And we're really not going to get economic activity back to normal until there's a vaccine or long lasting herd immunity. From those suppositions, I can make the argument that doing nothing but informing people of the dangers of socializing will produce an ultimate outcome that's comparable or better than the most draconian suppression measures. There no cure on the immediate horizon. Hospitals are not has helpful as we think. Burdening them is a potential waste of resources that could be used to treat other people, with better results. COVID-19 is not as deadly as the current numbers suggest, because far more people have already had it. Herd immunity will arrive sooner than anticipated as a result. Let's come back in two years and revisit this argument.
  5. Nope, gentle satire. https://ogn.theonion.com/animal-crossing-new-horizons-developers-confirm-no-o-1842424849
  6. Though both versions are wonderful, I like the original screenshot best. Blank space has value.
  7. One's pair is night vision, the other's... X-Ray.
  8. Twelve years between those two avis, but it's the same hair.
  9. There was a massive internet disruption today, which was mentioned here. https://status.secondlifegrid.net In the future when things aren't working, check that page. A VPN would NOT have helped.
  10. Yeah, I understand your feeling. But, if it really is an act of kindness, LL won't do anything about it. Reporting the mysterious deposit is itself an act of kindness.
  11. The donated LS$ have been obtained from hijacked accounts. When discovered, LL has locked all of the recipient accounts. I've no idea why someone would do that, that's what I recall. If LL can't find anything amiss, they'll leave things alone.
  12. Be careful! This technique has been used to grief people in the past. Check your Account->L$ Transaction History (upper left of your web dashboard) to see where the money came from. If you don't recognize the person, file an abuse report against Governor Linden and explain that L$5K has mysteriously appeared in your account. LL will look into it. Here's how to file an AR...
  13. Oops, it's SC. ...goes back to geography class.
  14. I was in Charleston NCSC for a wedding last year and saw several trucks roaming the streets, selling alcohol laden popsicles and playing the same jingly tunes you'd expect... https://roaminghunger.com/booze-pops/
  15. I routinely attempt SL UI maneuvers on websites, like many of you. Those don't bother me. I haven't really slipped up yet, but I can see the day coming. The closest I've got was in nearly saying to Mom, "Oh, I recently discussed that while sitting in a volcano with a friend of mine". I quickly changed "volcano" to "cafe".
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