SL's Mired Growth: Rosedale Article's Sobering Assessment

[Isolde Mistwood]

There is a November 6, 2011 article in The New York Times: Technology section called "Bit by Bit, Work Exchange Site Aims to Get Jobs Done" about Philip Rosedale's new work exchange company, Coffee and Power.  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/technology/coffee-and-power-site-aims-to-get-jobs-done-bit-by-bit.html  Although Mr. Rosedale is still a board member of Linden Lab, his focus is clearly on his new venture.

The article frames Second Life as having maxed out its potential, perhaps even implying it is in decline:

"Second Life, in its heyday, held similar promise. While it became notorious for sexual chatter, it has over the years attracted a Reuters news bureau, now defunct, as well as emporiums of several companies like American Apparel and Starwood Hotels. Cisco Systems also held meetings there. Second Life still exists, but is much quieter now, offering virtual currency, meetings and digital real estate, among other services.

While he is still chairman of Linden Lab, the company that created Second life, Mr. Rosedale talks about that venture in the past tense

"The problem with creating an immersive 3-D experience is that it is just too involved, and so it’s hard to get people to engage,” he said. “Smart people in rural areas, the handicapped, people looking for companionship, they love it. But you have to be highly motivated to get on and learn to use it.""

Rosedale seems to summarize SL as having inherently limited growth potential because it is accessible and appealing to niche groups more than to mainstream consumers.  This, from Linden Lab's founder and acting chairman.  It's not a slam on Second Life per se, but it certainly doesn't provide an optimistic outlook on future growth, either. 

[Alazarin Mondrian]

No doubt everyone's got a different take on things. For me, Second Life was obvious and made perfect sense.The only flaw was that the technology wasn't up to the job then or now. Things like social networking sites and Phil's latest project feel like they're skirting around the issue or missing the point entirely. Yes, they work within the limits of what's technologically feasible. Then again so do 2 tin cans and a piece of string or clay tablets and reed stylii. Sometimes you have to push the envelope.... alot.

[Pussycat Catnap]

Its just another sign that LLs has long lacked anyone with visionary potential.

Its basically a 'normal people' company that stumbled onto something which needed to be led by an innovator.

 

 

[Peggy Paperdoll]

Second Life from day one was an experiment.  Philip Rosedale never made any bones about it.  In a sense the "experiment" was a success since it proved that a real time, dynamic 3D virtual world was possible.........with user created content to boot.  It worked.  But, like the automobile it took a while before the modern automobile became "mainstream"......vehicles powered by mechanical means were around since the 1800's but never took off for the average person until Henry Ford devised a means that made an automobile feasible for everyone to own and use one.  Until that point, an automobile was "niche".  Second Life is niche and always has been.  Someday someone will develop a way to make what we call Second Life useful for the average person.  It will become far less "complicate", have features the average person will find indispensible.......it will become "mainstream".  Will it still be Second Life?  I doubt it.......but whatever develops will be built upon Philip Rosedale's experiment.

[Ceka Cianci]

from what i have been hearing ..sl has been having some of it's best months the last three months..

so i guess we will see how it all comes out in the wash in time..

[Alazarin Mondrian]

Second Life, or 3D virtual worlds will move from niche to mainstream when anyone anywhere can host their own sim / archipelago / continent / universe, connect freely to other such spaces and have multi-way traffic and trade whether it's hosted on their own home computer or a mega server farm.

There's hurdles to overcome but in time those hurdles will become trivial.

[Lynda Baran]

Your first mistake is believing anything you read in the New York Times.   

>goes back to my coffee and browsing my Wall Street Journal<

[Sy Beck]

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Alazarin Mondrian wrote:

Second Life, or 3D virtual worlds will move from niche to mainstream when anyone anywhere can host their own sim / archipelago / continent / universe, connect freely to other such spaces and have multi-way traffic and trade whether it's hosted on their own home computer or a mega server farm.

There's hurdles to overcome but in time those hurdles will become trivial.

---

^ This is most probably correct.

[Dresden Ceriano]

Of course, he'd talk about it in the past tense.  He's moved on to other things now... this isn't anything new.  He created it and has left it in (questionably) capable hands, as he has done and will do again with his current project and the next one and the one after that.  He's a man of ideas, a visionary... that's what he does.  That's his shtick.

What he says, though, is spot on... SL is a niche product.  The fact that people need to be, as he put it, "highly motivated to get on and learn to use it," means that it will never be "mainstream."  Most people don't want to put forth the effort that's required to enjoy SL... they'd rather turn on the TV, play a video game that's already laid out for them or hook up with people, in RL, on various social networking sites... not that there's anything wrong with that.

That doesn't mean that SL's demise is anywhere close to being realized.  SL offers something that none of those other things can.  As long as the powers that be don't run it into the ground or someone comes along that does it better and is, therefore, able to build up it's user base to be able to rival it, SL will remain relevant... at least to the people that find it relevant.  Right now, no one is even close.

Personally, I would like to see LL put as much effort into keeping their customers happy, and therefore here, as they do trying to attract new ones (we could argue all day about what keeping them happy entails).  When you're losing as many people as your bringing in, there will be no growth.  And companies that show no growth are usually considered in a negative light.

Still, though I have my issues, I'm optimistic about the direction we're going in under Rod's supervision.  I think he knows what he's doing, for the most part.  It's just taking some time to turn things around... at least that is my hope.

...Dres

[Dresden Ceriano]

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Sy Beck wrote:

---

Alazarin Mondrian wrote:

Second Life, or 3D virtual worlds will move from niche to mainstream when anyone anywhere can host their own sim / archipelago / continent / universe, connect freely to other such spaces and have multi-way traffic and trade whether it's hosted on their own home computer or a mega server farm.

There's hurdles to overcome but in time those hurdles will become trivial.

---

^ This is most probably correct.

---

I agree.  LL would have to completely rethink their business model once this becomes reality, before really.  Otherwise, they will certainly go the way of AOL... doesn't anyone really use that anymore?

...Dres

[Void Singer]

wasn't this article hashed already? granted it started with the silly proposition that said project would "replace" SL....

and I suppose it has, at least for Mr Rosendale, as his current venture... but truth be told it was replaced in that sense long ago with the first CEO changeup. That's not actually anything new in the business world, and there are lots of creative minds following the path of "build it, and if they come great, I'll let someone else manage it while I build the next thing"

[Ann Otoole]

Advertising. IMVU does it and gets loads of users. SL is as easy to use for basic stuff as IMVU is.

 

LL never really tried to promote SL. LL doesn't even defend their brand while IMVU uses the keyword 2nd life to steal LL customers.

 

I will refrain from saying anything further.

[Dresden Ceriano]

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Void Singer wrote:

wasn't this article hashed already?

---

Indeed it was... but I was preoccupied then and enjoyed the chance to have my say here.  I'm selfish that way.

...Dres (Plus, I was going to point that out, looked for the post and couldn't figure out what to type in order to find it.. oh well.)

[Dresden Ceriano]

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Ann Otoole wrote:

Advertising. IMVU does it and gets loads of users. SL is as easy to use for basic stuff as IMVU is.

 

LL never really tried to promote SL. LL doesn't even defend their brand while IMVU uses the keyword 2nd life to steal LL customers.

 

I will refrain from saying anything further.

---

You're very right.  What IMVU is doing is despicable and should be addressed.

If you've been paying attention (which I'm sure you have), LL has been doing a lot more to promote SL recently, which I think is great and clearly needs to be done.  But some sorts of promotion, when handled badly (as it most certainly has been in the past), might just come at the cost of alienating their own user base, business owners and active participants.  How can that be considered helpful?

It saddens me that you feel you must refrain from stating your opinion here in the SL forum... certainly your voice is as relevant as anyone else's and shouldn't be censored, either by yourself or anyone else, for any reason... especially fear of retaliation by LL itself.  That this could even possibly be the case, really needs to be addressed... otherwise you'll have no voice. And having a voice is important, is it not?

...Dres

 

[Ann Otoole]

Because there is no place in this topic for my personal opinion. But you guys go ahead and have a ball.

[Dresden Ceriano]

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Ann Otoole wrote:

Because there is no place in this topic for my personal opinion. But you guys go ahead and have a ball.

---

What? Why not?

...Dres

[Maryanne Solo]

Shouldn't "The Love Machine" have led to "Coffee and Cigarettes"?

*wonders...

[Dilbert Dilweg]

 

 

I have been actually getting in world spam from other grids now. Claiming SL is on it's last leg lol. Targeting business owners. Claming copy bot free. Claming " No Greifers" and Claming no Lag" Yes no lag because the grid is not full lol

 

 

[Alazarin Mondrian]

Meh... just signed up for IMVU. WTF??? No thanks.

[Sy Beck]

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Maryanne Solo wrote:

Shouldn't "The Love Machine" have led to "Coffee and Cigarettes"?

*wonders

...

---

Haha, nice one Maryanne :smileyvery-happy:

 

Maybe because one's a machine and needs to be plugged in again?  :smileywink:

[greek Wingtips]

I do belive that 3d worlds have a massive avantage over other forms of social networking, only thing is that it does require

a complex program to get it right, and a fairness to it's members.

1: Some of the changes in SL I belive have contributed to its current status. to which I mean long standing members leaving sl for good or slimming down to cut the finance burden.

The viewer over the last couple of years has suffered more in problems than good, in my view it's updates have been rolled out too soon to see what impications this would cause, thus too many people even now still suffer more problems with the viewer than before , its no good throwing out an update then hoping to get the feedback from everyone, beta it to a selected few with differnent spec pc's see that the outcome is then roll it out if all is ok. I had to change my sl viewer to a 3third party due the problems I was having and my pc is a top spec before anyone asks.

what am saying here is simple ,if it works reasonablly then leave it, upgrade or update only when one is fully satisfield all works well or the % is in favour it will.

2: I am sure Marketplace was pushed more over private shops in sl due to the fact that LL's do get a cut % of any deals and the advertising too. we all know LL's do reqquire to make money but I tend to feel it was a wrong move.

Before many investors had whole sims to half sims ect, in other words LL's were getting monely via the tiers, the sim owners would subsidse their lands into renting clubs to shops to homes. this was a great for everyone I thought.but once you take away or make it hard for this chain to exsist then I belive its a slippery slope downwards.

before when we wanted to purchase something with the viewer or advetise a shop it was done with ease, that I feel went out of the windows once the beta for the new veiwer came into play and nothing has changed since.

I could go on and on, and it may sound that I winging, but I like SL and I hate it that it has gone downhill, what I like to see

is for LL's to bring young dynamic people who know what its' SL members want and to implement it. I dont belive that 3d worlds are dead it just needs a equal balance of a finance to and from the LL's and its memebers if you just take $ from members and give below service then of course they going to leave or slim down their outgoings.

enought said, what are everyones thoughts.

 

 

[Victoria1488304562]

Rosedale's vision didn't go beyond getting Second Life started and to its feet.

It's a big achievement, and I'm not minimizing it, but I don't think he had any idea what to do except maintain it.

I'm not surprised he's moved on to something else, and maybe the fact that SL keeps on going bugs him because he couldn't figure out how to do more with it.

[Jazz Rozen]

What I find most telling about the article is two things.

1.  That he has learned from his SL experience that he can get cheap labor.

2. That he has determined that he can make his money off of the currency exchange.

The article states, "As with Second Life, the business has a virtual currency for buying, selling or bestowing tasks as gifts. Coffee and Power takes a 15 percent fee for moving the money back into real dollars"

 

Wow, 15 percent?  is that both ways?  So he will get 15 percent when you buy his currency and 15 percent when you convert it back to USD?  so not bad for him at all .  He spends a relatively small amount of capital to generate a service which probably requires relatively small amount of maintenance and he gets cheap labor to boot.

Sort of sounds like a modern day digital sweat mill.

no min wage to contend with, no benefits to provide employees (because they are basically contract ).and they HAVE to use your currency and give you a cut both ways.

I love the way he makes the fact he wants to use cheap labor as if he is benefiting some poor kid from another country.  I just wonder if he would pay that poor kid the same as he would pay the harvard grad.

Dont get me wrong, the concept of dividing a project into smaller tasks and having multiple work on it at one time does have its efficiencies.  As well a pseudo barter system is also viable but sheesh.......people complained about the banks charging 5 percent for a debit card transaction and he wants to charge 15 percent?  Lets see by the time they add on the fees to transfer the money from that account using pay pal or other reg bank fees, not to mention taxes or vat they wont have much left of the small amount they received as income.

[Deltango Vale]

Its just another sign that LLs has long lacked anyone with visionary potential.

Its basically a 'normal people' company that stumbled onto something which needed to be led by an innovator.

----------------------------------------------------------

This ^

[Jazz Rozen]

Visionary , no but saavy....yes.  Let's face it he realized he needed content for SL and the labor costs to hire people to create that would be huge. So he let us create the content not only for free for him but charged us to boot to do it in tier costs, membership fees and currency exchange fees.  You have to hand it to him he figured out how to make money to create his product saving himself a ton of development costs , then he could use that free developed content to sell to those who wanted to see all the free content.