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Land Sales Crash


Diablo Lioncourt
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12 hours ago, Chic Aeon said:

If one wants to point fingers then I would say that the new Premiums Plus 2048 homes are a big part of any problem that there may be.  And since there is a new theme for those coming out it seems like they have worked well (monetarily anyway) for LL.   But what is good for some folks is less than great for others.   I am only a renter and happily so.     

 

Well, I was thinking that too. But since then, I've noticed this: a lot of 1024s I sell that are side by side are now getting purchase two at a time, and merged. The new parcel name/build often reflects something that wouldn't be allowed in a LH neighborhood, such as a small club or store. Location may also be adult. It appears the limits of LH are making some of these new Premium Plus people choose mainland:)

Edited by Diablo Lioncourt
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41 minutes ago, Diablo Lioncourt said:

Well, I was thinking that too. But since then, I've noticed this: a lot of 1024s I sell that are side by side are now getting purchase two at a time, and merged. The new parcel name/build often reflects something that wouldn't be allowed in a LH neighborhood, such as a small club or store. Location may also be adult. It appears the limits of LH are making some of these new Premium Plus people choose mainland:)

Agreed.  Land prices and availability have been up and down for over fifteen years -- just like the RL land sales at least in my part of the US.   When there isn't ENOUGH mainland to buy (not lately since the LHs anyway) folks complain about that.  If you think about it there is a lot MORE MAINLAND now with Zindra and Horizons etc.

I have probably moved well over three dozen times in my years here and with some looking I have always found a good place to live on the cheap -- either buying or renting.  Many of those times it was mainland simply because mainland is usually cheaper.  

I really enjoyed my time in Belli that first year but over time it got so very laggy (like everywhere that I went there) that it was pretty much unlivable. Way too much heavy mesh.  Happily it seems our no name "shaming" posts did let creators know that a lot of folks really DO CARE about stuff like that. It does have an impact.  So small steps forward.     

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4 hours ago, Diablo Lioncourt said:

"I never did that" are words first uttered by you, not me. Comprehension. I've been in SL since '04 and clearly might even know a bit about it. And I'm still new to flipping mainland. You clearly don't want to hear, or see, anything but the story what you want to tell. No one here is going to be able to make you open-minded or logical.

Calleta City spreads across multiple regions or it would be called "Calleta town". Google is so easy and most of us have adapted to it by now:) Like mesh:) "Seaview" is another you term. I didn't even use it to describe the grid-edge copies of that tower in Euryalus because "seaviews" are common AF and there's only one "Historic Calleta". People who were children in RL when it was being made think its like a living museum, and value it as an "authentic experience". Many newer SL residents are bored with remote tropical islands surrounded by water you can't swim or sail in.

Unfurnished apartments are a nice little fringe market, but... "Hey there's no INM shower" (and that's a necessity). "How come my Lovebridge oscii doesn't work?" "What's a prim?" Privacy and media skyboxes are popular but not everyone wants to pay for a small parcel when its so much cheaper to share one. We've got those offering for the minority of the market that wants them. How many prims you give furnished skybox tenants is not of any particular importance, most won't use them anyway. More than 50% of my own prims aren't even out most of the time, because it would lag too much if they were. They rez on demand. Single-scene units still have "options" that make almost  everything really multi-scene. Automated scanning of objects rezzed and the associated database and analysis tells a creator what's popular, so they don't necessarily have to rely on preferences. I update my stuff a few times a year, it keeps getting cheaper, lighter, bigger, and faster. Scripted skyboxes are a service; land is a commodity.

Things do evolve whether you notice or not, sir. You sound kinda grumpy for a guy with 14 sims, and your rentals need work. Things outside my parcels would be the last thing I'd be worried about in your position, and people who claim to have filed ARs about stuff across the street are just silly to later claim they're not worried about it.

People do still buy land and resell it for a profit. My own sales picked back up after I posted this. It's less stable than rentals. More ups and down, more arbitrage, greater potential risk and profit.

Which brings us back to the topic of "Mainland Land Sales". If you wanna create another thread about Robin Loop, Calleta City,  or rental business models/ philosophies, be my guest. I won't be responding to further attempts to hijack this with what's really a disagreement about "turf" you chose to ABANDON.

Thank you.

*Chuckles*  Glad to learn the definition of "city" means "spreads across multiple sims". By that definition, gosh, I am the mayor of multiple "cities" in SL, but I never thought to award myself that title.

I think it's marvelous that in all your ad copy about Calleta, you never once use the word "hobo" -- but then, your birthdate is only 2004. Yet the hobos are what still make up the life and spirit of Calleta, and I still have a few of their things like the hobo "distillery" actually out inworld, despite the prims. Hobos! Reminds me of my RL neighbourhood, where a synagogue was razed and the new apartment tower had the temerity to call itself "Temple Apartments".

Tell my 25L customers from all over the world that their 50 prims are not important to them. Go ahead, I'll wait. PS Ivar was heavy-weight champion in Pristina in 2004, I'll have you know.

Sometimes irony and sarcasm fly right over people's heads, I find. I stand firmly by my telescopic seaview in Zindra! In fact, I peer right through my telescope because it has an automatic animation on it! Like...oh never, mind, this is a family newspaper.

Perhaps my neighbours on several sims, my tenants or other land-owners, aren't as concerned about the eruption of ad farms on their flanks because after a flurry of ARs, most of them are...gone. I'd invite you to have a look again at the abandoned land tags on my flagship no-tell motel sim : )

I think someone like yourself who profits handsomely from flipping abandoned land shouldn't question the dynamics or motives anyone has for abandoning land, but then, that's just me, attached to out-of-date prim builds and old-fashioned morals, I guess.

Yes, sadly I had to pocket the US $135 I made off G-rated 4096 which I had for years in a lovely river basin area where I maintained a waterfall for others in the view, which gave me more revenue than rentals in G would ever give me, but downsizing is what one does in a buyer's market where the house always wins and competes against their own previous products, as Silicon Valley titans often do. 

The land sales "crash" (actually a steady decline of some years if you had been paying attention) is intimately tied to the valuation of the LindEx (now the instant cashout is 247; increases in cashout fees; US sales tax -- I was just looking at a 2007 record where the cashout fee was only $1.00, not 5% as it is now). Virtual though it is, the toy economy of SL can't help being tied to RL pandemics, wars, and recessions. What's the price of gas and orange juice where you are?

The Lindens need to pay for their servers and staff, and land remains their main revenue generator -- not sales tax on content, not special contracts to big third-party media companies, not anything. They don't like it, and they punish themselves and us for it periodically. While a Bellisseria sim with 20 premiums x $12 on it seems like it brings in more than an island, they are not all chock full, walk around and see. Islands remain the bulk of the product, not Mainland, not Bellisseria. It's to the advantage of the island owners to keep Mainland looking ugly, to ensure large swathes of it are carpeted with blight and concrete transportation games and that certain bottom-feeders succeed in pitting natural allies against each other by making a continual grab.

Even so, I still admire the view on to a funny old Linden build and river on the Sharp continent, as long as I face towards that river and not the checkerboard of abandoned micro-parcels and giant glowing spars from some man-child's game in space. 

"But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished."

 

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1 hour ago, Diablo Lioncourt said:

Well, I was thinking that too. But since then, I've noticed this: a lot of 1024s I sell that are side by side are now getting purchase two at a time, and merged. The new parcel name/build often reflects something that wouldn't be allowed in a LH neighborhood, such as a small club or store. Location may also be adult. It appears the limits of LH are making some of these new Premium Plus people choose mainland:)

There aren't "a lot" of these. There are some that you see in your view and your view is limited to how many sims you can see in a day. I scamper around and see a LOT of sims every week, my own, those in the BBB stamp game, and all kinds of stuff, and I recommend others do the same.

But it is no longer possible to walk across SL in a day or even a week, as Wally "Keep Back Wide Load" Walesa once attempted rationally to do in 2004, although in the end the ban lines got to him.

I have a lovely ranch home myself because they really are huge, it's actually harder than you think to lay down the 702 prims but the beauty part is, the house and fencing doesn't count on your count, like in the rentals of some landlords I know. So you get a house that doesn't count, and a managed view, with rules, which is really beloved by a lot of people. Rules for Living. Not those silly rules on that blighty kiosk. But rules that are enforced. For example, against ban systems that force people home like they're in some MMORPG shooter game.

I have tenants also who have both Belli and Mainland homes. I think the secret of SL is that a lot of people do a lot of different things. I am never surprised to find some over-primming prim-a-donna owning an island empire while she slums it out on an alt in my el cheapo B&Bs away from her Gorean bf. It happens. I've also lost more and more tenants to Belli. I used to say unequivocally that Belli does not compete with Mainland rentals and sales, because it did not in fact, whatever gloating forums griefers would tell you.

But now it does, because any of us can read Daniel's estimates, or the Grid Survey or in the end, just fly around and look at the map. I don't know at which point in 2023 the Belli continents surpassed total resident-held land on the Mainland (subtracting out abandoned and Linden roads and parks) -- and Patch got a bonus -- but *that* it did I no longer have any doubt. I know, because I can open my eyes and see, as I am an owner of 5 Belli homes myself, that it is also not stable, there is a lot of churn, a lot of alts, a lot of empties heading for default.

Anyone, critical as they may be, can only wish the Lindens to succeed in their endeavours, as wrong-headed as some of them think them to be, because our world depends on them, and not us. They don't live off the taxation of content that we create, or contracts for private white label corporate hook-ups they might land, but off tier.

Tier generated mainly by island dealers, but also by hard-scrabble Mainland subsistence farmers like myself or the newer, flashier micro-barons of which Philip dreamed when he envisioned a day when a guy with a name tag that said "Hi I'm HOWIE CROFT! Who the Hell are YOU, Bud?" swooped down on defenseless newbies in the telehubs in a helicopter and took them off to look at new condos.

But what kind of tier is best? My anecdotal understanding from following the fate of many long-lived islands that disappeared in recent years among educators and international sims is that the Lindens prefer Americans and Europeans who buy premium accounts and are content with playing "Game of Homes" or even just sticking with one Belli home. Not Poor Folks from the rest of the world -- their idealistic days are over, they long ago shuttered their foreign offices. Such accounts are more stable in some ways, once they reach a critical mass, I think. More people than you might imagine annualize.

Edited by Prokofy Neva
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4 hours ago, BilliJo Aldrin said:

then why when i was shopping for snowland the other day everything was $4L per sqm.

Oh wait there was one parcel cheeper , but it had a grade of about 400%

Perfect if i wanted to do SL avalanches I suppose, but they would be stopped by the no entry rule when they hit the LL road, so what’s the point of bothering?

😂

Because it's a bad buy, and people who bought too much of it thinking everybody would want it at Christmas are now trying to unload it, and finding out that a lot of people would rather texture a prim on their chemical waste-land Heterocera land than be stuck with a snow texture all year.

Wait a week, it will be a $3.

 

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2 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

Because it's a bad buy, and people who bought too much of it thinking everybody would want it at Christmas are now trying to unload it, and finding out that a lot of people would rather texture a prim on their chemical waste-land Heterocera land than be stuck with a snow texture all year.

Wait a week, it will be a $3.

 

its still too much, ill just put in for some abandoned land 😁

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24 minutes ago, Chic Aeon said:

Agreed.  Land prices and availability have been up and down for over fifteen years -- just like the RL land sales at least in my part of the US.   When there isn't ENOUGH mainland to buy (not lately since the LHs anyway) folks complain about that.  If you think about it there is a lot MORE MAINLAND now with Zindra and Horizons etc.

I have probably moved well over three dozen times in my years here and with some looking I have always found a good place to live on the cheap -- either buying or renting.  Many of those times it was mainland simply because mainland is usually cheaper.  

I really enjoyed my time in Belli that first year but over time it got so very laggy (like everywhere that I went there) that it was pretty much unlivable. Way too much heavy mesh.  Happily it seems our no name "shaming" posts did let creators know that a lot of folks really DO CARE about stuff like that. It does have an impact.  So small steps forward.     

No, Chic. No.

They haven't been "up and down".

They have been in a slow but steady overall DECLINE.

In tandem with the LindEx value of the Linden which did increase for a time but now has steadily DECLINED. This is easy to prove if you keep records, even if the Lindens stopped publishing the statistics because they show DECLINE.

There used to be Mainland Glut induced by the Lindens' yens for constantly rolling out "new, fast sims" as they were called (newer servers with no one on them and therefore less lag) on the auction. They shoveled those puppies out for years and at one time crashed the market themselves by having Ryan Linden try putting out flat bids for all kinds of land, when the system had already established valuations for telehub-adjacent, waterfront etc.

But now the glut comes from Belli, and more to the point (often overlooked point), homesteads untethered from islands.

As I sit on my Belli Sakura home doing a job, I have the entire sim to myself. As I did yesterday and the day before. No lag, and while prims are low, they're low at my other homes as well these days, I rented the areas out. I see a neighbour like three sims over and don't wave to him/her. My view is unspoiled. Linden-manufactured insects are buzzing and the flora is to die for. Even the bench is not so primmy out of that Sakura packet.

Since you have so much success with "no-name shaming campaigns" can you get to work on the skybox manufacturers who continue to inflict mesh bounce on their products? The sharper, more skillful mesh skybox makers don't do that any more and you can lay mesh and a prim down on their handiwork without doing all kinds of gyrations.

Edited by Prokofy Neva
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17 hours ago, BilliJo Aldrin said:

Nothing wrong with an unprotected water lot. You can cover 90% of it with a prim and have a seawall a meter or two in from the boundary. That way when the next person fills in the parcel beside yours, you have a narrow canal, and can stock it with fish or alligators.

Another advantage of a water parcel is that you can put in an inground pool with real LL water. 😁

I just removed 1024 sq m from my group donation and placed a bid on that water parcel. Max bid of 1500. I'm currently the winning bidder. If I win i'm gonna  list it for sale for 4000 😂

that water parcel 1024 on auction is now over 7K, so some people still see the value of living on Zindra. I doubt its a landflipper with the high bid though, because 7 K has already eaten the profit they might make

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14 minutes ago, BilliJo Aldrin said:

that water parcel 1024 on auction is now over 7K, so some people still see the value of living on Zindra. I doubt its a landflipper with the high bid though, because 7 K has already eaten the profit they might make

You cannot know the mind of a land baron, what their alts are, what their holdings are, what's happening here and there.

I have seen auction winters take a prime Blake Sea waterfront sim that they paid a fortune for and cut it in half, and abandon the hind part because they can -- what they make from rentals or sales on the waterfront enables them to do that. It may enable them to take a loss bidding on a $7000 waterfront in Zindra even if it appears to "eat their profits' because...it doesn't. 

That's why anecdotal arguments are silly, and only the Lindens know what is going on as only they have access to server truths.

And even they may not have the staff to pay attention to everything.

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39 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

the Lindens prefer Americans and Europeans who buy premium accounts and are content with playing "Game of Homes" or even just sticking with one Belli home. Not Poor Folks from the rest of the world

The Lindens don't really like poor people, or people that want adult content. I call that "opportunity". The latter is the most lucrative and dedicated group of customers in SL. You don't really need to advertise once you gain their loyalty. They will bring people to you.

 

Edited by Diablo Lioncourt
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8 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

You cannot know the mind of a land baron, what their alts are, what their holdings are, what's happening here and there.

I have seen auction winters take a prime Blake Sea waterfront sim that they paid a fortune for and cut it in half, and abandon the hind part because they can -- what they make from rentals or sales on the waterfront enables them to do that. It may enable them to take a loss bidding on a $7000 waterfront in Zindra even if it appears to "eat their profits' because...it doesn't. 

That's why anecdotal arguments are silly, and only the Lindens know what is going on as only they have access to server truths.

And even they may not have the staff to pay attention to everything.

its not waterfront though, its interior, surrounded by other owned parcels

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22 minutes ago, BilliJo Aldrin said:

that water parcel 1024 on auction is now over 7K, so some people still see the value of living on Zindra. I doubt its a landflipper with the high bid though, because 7 K has already eaten the profit they might make

Regular old people that just wanna live there will sometimes pay insane prices for any water parcel in Zindra. The average person looking at auctions may have never seen any adult waters parcels available to bid on since they started looking for land. Many people who are eager to open an adult business/club will overpay for *any* adult parcel they can use with their premium or premium plus account *now*.

In my limited experience so far, abandoned water parcels you can throw a mesh island and little else in, and immediately sell cheap are one of the easiest things to flip.

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42 minutes ago, Diablo Lioncourt said:

Regular old people that just wanna live there will sometimes pay insane prices for any water parcel in Zindra. The average person looking at auctions may have never seen any adult waters parcels available to bid on since they started looking for land. Many people who are eager to open an adult business/club will overpay for *any* adult parcel they can use with their premium or premium plus account *now*.

In my limited experience so far, abandoned water parcels you can throw a mesh island and little else in, and immediately sell cheap are one of the easiest things to flip.

The name of the sim is driving the bids, it has a cool factor. Never underestimate that. 

And 6.84/m is nothing for Zindra given that it's water only and could have ban lines around it, I haven't checked.

I'm willing to bet real money that this is going to be won by a flipper and not an end user...we'll know in like 30 minutes.

 

Edited by Prokofy Neva
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It went for just over L$8/m2, and even though it's still owned by an individual resident at the moment, it was definitely bought by a web bot, judging by the timing in the bid history. So yeah, very likely a flipper.

FWIW, the Zindra parcels yesterday went for:

  • L$ 5.03/m² (a 4096 now for sale at L$8/m²) and
  • L$ 4.41 / m² (a 512 now for sale at L$4.5/m²).

Both bidding histories had the same pattern of instantaneous counter-offers. Both are also landlocked in the middle of nowhere, the second with banlines on one side and an enormous ugly screen at one end, really only suitable for a skybox.

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Oops, I was dead wrong! It was indeed an end user from all appearances and a lucky winner of Zindra adult water for only like $7/m. I hold to my view that overall prices are down but I don't really know Zindra that well, I don't like the adult business much and prefer G and M rentals.

My God, look at these dogs, except for Mosh, which might be a pit, I haven't had a chance to really study it.

This as much as anything lets you know of the land crash -- to get back on topic -- although it is more about being a particularly loud thump on what has been a long, bumpy ride DOWN.

Will the Lindens do anything to fix this leaky boat? I really doubt it, as it really has no bearing on their main objective which is to sell Belli, which they are doing, now with a Russian mafia Bright-Beach style McMansion which should be wildly popular!

And you have to look at the LindEx and not the land market in isolation as they are intimately tied. In the last 48 hours, I've seen 246 appear regularly again (my God, remember when it was 245? 242???) and when that happens suddenly in the middle of the night, that can be Supply Linden or Demand Linden at work, although I suppose with Shop 'n Hop and Arcade opening, there's that...

 

 

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I must apologize, I knew better: Those instantaneous counter-offers are not the sign of a web bot bid. Quite the opposite: they're the way the Lab records automatic bidding above another offer, toward the winning bidder's limit. Hence, it's perfectly possible that the auction today really was won by an individual resident.

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Just now, Qie Niangao said:

It went for just over L$8/m2, and even though it's still owned by an individual resident at the moment, it was definitely bought by a web bot, judging by the timing in the bid history. So yeah, very likely a flipper.

FWIW, the Zindra parcels yesterday went for:

  • L$ 5.03/m² (a 4096 now for sale at L$8/m²) and
  • L$ 4.41 / m² (a 512 now for sale at L$4.5/m²).

Both bidding histories had the same pattern of instantaneous counter-offers. Both are also landlocked in the middle of nowhere, the second with banlines on one side and an enormous ugly screen at one end, really only suitable for a skybox.

Well, you beat me to it, Comrade. I am out here now and looking at Ms. End User and I missed the bot interlude. The bot might have *bid* but it didn't *win*.

She is shown as the winner of the auction as well, so I wonder if there *was* a bot.

Although it is quite possible that the way this system works, it shows the current owner no matter what, so it might go from Governor Linden to Bot to End User in the course of 15-30 minutes, who knows. I sure don't.

Yes, I've just discovered a very interesting thing about the auctions if you are quick enough catching what shows on the link above, which will be gone soon.

I didn't feel any ban lines there but I did see a big ugly plywood from a prominent land baron which will likely come down soon, it looks like it is merely being measured. (You know guys, you can take off the view of "water" and put on "show property lines" and get the same information without uglifying the view).

My objection to this lovely water is the big photo-real board in one direction. I personally cannot stand those things and ban them in my rentals. Nothing says buzz kill faster than photo-real boards in a virtual world that requires a slightly more painterly, somewhat cartoonish look to fit in.

If she looks only in one direction, Ms. End User could be quite happy here.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Qie Niangao said:

I must apologize, I knew better: Those instantaneous counter-offers are not the sign of a web bot bid. Quite the opposite: they're the way the Lab records automatic bidding above another offer, toward the winning bidder's limit. Hence, it's perfectly possible that the auction today really was won by an individual resident.

Well this must be rigorously tested with more attention span than I can give to the game of Second Life now as I'm busy in real.

But I say, watch those back links rigorously if you have world enough and time. They're the key. Some day in a boring Zoom meeting I will try to attempt this.

 

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10 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

There aren't "a lot" of these.

 

No, I said a lot OF THOSE I SELL. Comprehension gap between information you have and what you get from it has already been observed. You seem to just need to shame yourself.

Edited by Diablo Lioncourt
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9 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

My God, look at these dogs, except for Mosh, which might be a pit, I haven't had a chance to really study it.

The 400m Mosh parcel is 2x protected and is located inside the Port of Kama City, a special building made by Linden Labs. It functions as a monorail station and has a rez zone in the river right in front of it (Mosh South). It also has connections to the road on both ends of the building. By owning one of those port stations, you are able to build within that huge modern glass building. It has some historic value for those who care about it. Another perk is that the port's building does not have any impact on the prim count of the parcel. Those factors make it special.

The other parcel in Mosh is 544m and has a strange shape, but it is 1x protected by the road.

I'm the one who bought the parcels. I willingly overpaid for them due to the fact that I had my eyes on that 400m port station in particular for years now. I own a port station right next to it and was pleasantly surprised when it was suddenly abandoned. The 544m was purchased for that amount of L$ solely because I needed extra prims for a project and land in the Mosh region is very rarely available to purchase.

In short, both of the Mosh parcels that sold for high bids at the auctions were a one-off event and do not accurately represent any uptick in land sales.

Snapshot_004.thumb.png.68591d161700266473eb18e177c04f40.png

Location: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Mosh/129/25/26

Edited by Clem Marques
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59 minutes ago, Clem Marques said:

I'm the one who bought the parcels. I willingly overpaid for them due to the fact that I had my eyes on that 400m port station in particular for years now. I own a port station right next to it and was pleasantly surprised when it was suddenly abandoned. The 544m was purchased for that amount of L$ solely because I needed extra prims for a project and land in the Mosh region is very rarely available to purchase.

That's one of the best neighborhoods in SL:)

I've thought about building little apartments in Mosh Station before, but haven't gotten around to it yet. Kama is probably my favorite part of the whole grid.

Edited by Diablo Lioncourt
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3 hours ago, Diablo Lioncourt said:

That's one of the best neighborhoods in SL:)

I've thought about building little apartments in Mosh Station before, but haven't gotten around to it yet. Kama is probably my favorite part of the whole grid.

I used to have a place in Yedboro ( the sim west of Mosh) but i got out because some noob help center (a 512) usually had the sim full of avatars. That's why i got it so cheep. I managed to resell it and get most of my money back.

I see Mosh station has 5 parcels for sale ranging from 50 K to 72.5 K.

Who would every pay that much?

Edited by BilliJo Aldrin
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1 hour ago, BilliJo Aldrin said:

I see Mosh station has 5 parcels for sale ranging from 50 K to 72.5 K.

Who would every pay that much?

You'd be surprised, there's certainly a demand for them even at that price. We had 6 bidders on the port station that went to the auctions recently, and it sold for a little over 40,000 L$. I was willing to pay more if I had to. It's definitely not for everyone, more of a niche interest type of thing. But I personally really like those port stations and I know some other people who do as well.

There used to be more of them available for sale for that same price range, and I watched some of them being sold or rented in the last few months. It's important to make a distinction between the back and the front sides of the Port of Kama City though. The view is significantly better in the front portion of it, because you see the river and the abandoned, protected mall in Mosh South as well as the cool bridges that are present on both sides of the building. Hence why every single port station that faces the river is taken. The back portion of the port is not worth 50,000 L$+ in my opinion. The view is nothing special, just a bunch of buildings.

At the end of the day, the port stations are just small 400m parcels with a very high price per square meter, and not enough prims to build anything significant. 100% not everyone's cup of tea and I understand why that's the case.

Edited by Clem Marques
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