Rya Nitely

Qie Niangao wrote: Rya Nitely wrote: Perhaps they need educating, then we can get more of a real market going. It would definitely benefit L$ buyers to adopt the habit of limit orders. It's kind of a zero-sum game, though. L$s bought with limit orders are filled from market sell orders. Taken to the absurd extreme, if buyers only got L$s by limit orders, sellers could do no better than the best of those limit buy orders. Presumably that would tighten the bid/ask spread, but I don't have a strong intuition whether it could really stay tighter than the 3.5% Lindex selling fee. You're right. It would make little difference, because buyers are not doing it to trade it later. They're buying to use it - this is passive buying, it's not trading. And that's why this is not working like the forex or stock markets. I don't trade currencies but it looks pretty much the same as trading in the stock market. You buy when the price falls, then you hold until the price recovers enough to give you a profit. This controls the market price. Fees are not so important because the aim is to get that back plus profit when you sell. So, buyers dive in at low prices, demand increases and a frenzy of buying occurs which drives the price back up again. When the price goes up those traders who got in early will start selling to take profit, thus driving it down again. The only trading that goes on with the LindeX is when that fee spread gets too wide, which is hardly ever. So, when a currency goes down, like the pound, trading will correct it to some extent. We don't have that here - if it goes down it stays down. There's no point waiting, because there's no active trading that will take it back again. That's why the reason behind it is important, more important than in real world markets, where we can feel comfortable that the more the price goes down the more likely there will be a correction, through trading. Edit to add: Thinking about it, I do have experience with the currency market. I hoard my US$ in Paypal until the AUD drops to the low 70s. When it's above 74 cents I accumulate US$ and hold it. This can take months. then I withdraw when it falls to around 71 cents (which was not long ago), now it's gone back to around 74 cents - and I'll watch it. British sellers would be very happy with the pound right now, and it's a good time for them to exchange US$ for pounds. That's a normal market, where you get those opportunities. The LindeX doesn't work like that, not unless you take a gamble that something unusual will happen in years to come and you hoard your L$ until then.

wherorangi wrote: Rya Nitely wrote: But this market isn't significantly influenced by buyers, because the vast majority of buy orders are at market (in the viewer). Most SL buyers are not even aware of the exchange rate or that their orders go through an exchange. They think they're buying L$ from LL. If the price of L$ went up too significantly then they'd start feeling ripped off and they might start buying less. But with this recent change, they'd be just as comfortable paying the higher price of 248. i think you underestimate the knowledge of most SL users who spend their RL money on L$ to buy stuff in SL most people who do buy L$ (apart from brandnew people), do know that they are buying on Lindex spot market, and they do so bc they want it now today they only buy about $10-$20 worth at a time. Those shoes, that mesh body, that new skin, that fab new outfit, that amazing garden set, house furniture, tip jar, hair fair, etc, cant wait until tomorrow It takes about 5 minutes for a limit buy order at the top. From what I know of consumers in SL, every linden counts. I get long IMs asking for refunds of 100L or even less. As a consumer I was the same. I would um and ah over a 100L purchase. I know my customers do this. In the time it takes them to decide to part with that money they could have placed a limit buy order and saved that amount. Perhaps they need educating, then we can get more of a real market going. Buying $20 at 266 would get you about L$150 more than at market. I think there would be many more people who would do it if they knew. I didn't know when I was a consumer, my partner didn't know and none of my friends knew, because we shared tips and advice. If we knew we all would have done it.

Bobbie Faulds wrote: You may not have been here, but the Linden currency went into a bit of a free fall when gambling left and the inworld banks collapsed. LL stepped in and stopped trading on Lindens for almost 24 hours to let things calm down. That's also about the time they purchased the old secondary marketplace that competed with the Linden sponsored marketplace. It enabled you to purchase Lindens through them as well and had much higher purchase caps on newer players. I've been here since 2007. I came in the huge wave of new members that also washed you in, and Pamela and many others. Since then I've been active almost everyday. I was a merchant in Xstreet, and I was a part of SL history as it unfolded, as well as all the drama that it generated in these forums.

Pamela Galli wrote: Oh you thought we were trying to come up with something we could DO about this? Because whether we know who is doing this and why, or not, the fact remains that we can like it or lump it, we are not going to affect it in any way. I think your response is aimed more at what Qie was suggesting.

if I lump it, it will be an individual action and It won't change anything. If you also lump it, as in hold off selling, it won't make any difference. It needs to be a significant number of sellers holding off to make an impact. This isn't going to happen. When I'm ready to sell again, I will sell near the top, just like everyone else is doing. Because nobody is going to be making a pact here.

But this market isn't significantly influenced by buyers, because the vast majority of buy orders are at market (in the viewer). Most SL buyers are not even aware of the exchange rate or that their orders go through an exchange. They think they're buying L$ from LL. If the price of L$ went up too significantly then they'd start feeling ripped off and they might start buying less. But with this recent change, they'd be just as comfortable paying the higher price of 248. As for 'like it or lump it' - it's advice that can be applied to any situation, not just this market. Someone complains about their job or pay or whatever - like it or lump it. It's something they already know, they don't need the advice.

Qie Niangao wrote: That's the thing, though: Nobody is ripping L$s out of people's accounts and forcing them to take US$s in return. They're doing it of their own accord, no matter how desperate they may be to raise US$s. I mean, any L$ seller could instead decide to leave the market altogether and never look back -- stop renting land, stop selling stuff, stop whatever they're doing that generates L$s to trade. Until they walk away leaving their L$ balance behind, they're "willing" participants in the market. That willingness to trade at higher rates is all it takes to push any market higher. The old argument of 'like it or lump it'. When there's nothing else to say, then that will do it. :smileywink: But once again, the discussion proved useful. I didn't know Ebbe said anything, did you? I appreciate that he didn't say the recent moves were normal, and then referred people to historical data. He said it was 'very unusual as we haven’t seen that in years..... It’s something we’re looking at, and we’re analysing it.' At least this shows some concern. Then he tried to come up with reasons - also appreciated. But I find it hard to believe that a number of different factors suddenly came into play all at the same time, making the market move, not once but twice in quick succession. 'So, all these things could have various impacts individually, and combined they could be a contribution', or it was 'a fairly isolated incident of someone or someones being very active on the sell side'. Just guesses like all the rest of us :matte-motes-confused: Edit to add: Surely if LL detected very unusual selling by someone or someones it would prompt investigation. They would know exactly what it was and who it was. This isn't speculation, it would be a fact. So then we have two reasons for two separate events that happened in quick succession - the first was someone or someone(s) selling, and a few weeks later it could be 'all these things having various impacts'. But whatever it is, it's not going to make me pack up and go. I do like analysing and picking at things like this, although some may find it annoying. But then your 'like it or lump it' advice applies. :matte-motes-tongue:

wherorangi wrote: what there is evidence of is that there are now more people willing to sell their L$ at a discount to previous Willing? Not sure about that. I think most sellers would agree with me here. How long do you wait....and watch... before you give in? You really need to be a regular seller to understand.

Bobbie Faulds wrote: Not any more mysterious than any currency exchange. The cost of one currency compared to another. That fluctuates daily. If you went to a bank tp purchase any foreign currency, they look up the current rate so what you get today could be more or less than what you get tomorrow and different next week. Some people actually do use buy and sell orders on the Linden exchange just like they do with RL money exchanges. If you were to buy British pounds now, while they are low, then wait a bit, once Britain stabilizes and the value starts to rise, you could then exchange them for US currency and make money on it. Except that RL currency exchanges are not mysterious. There are sound reasons for major fluctuations. Central banks don't have a 'we don't know' approach to it. They do know, and the media will let us know. There may be normal and insignificant ups and downs around a certain point from day to day, but what we're experiencing with the LindeX is unexpected and unusual. Even Ebbe agreed with that. The LindeX does not work like a normal currency exchange. If it did, it would not have remained flat for 4 years. We would see waves. One of the main reasons is because it's not actively traded like normal currencies are, where both buyers and sellers are setting prices. Most of our buyers are passive, and buy at whatever price, like if you go into a foreign exchange to buy pounds - the price you pay is determined by active traders. The LindeX price is not determined by active trading, like normal markets are.

Rhonda Huntress wrote: Rya Nitely wrote: The reason is the market? I was preparing an answer, but that's just not worth my time Does supply and demand make more sense then? It's pretty much the same thing, just like 1st Life stock markets. It fluctuates to match market values. Yes, there's more supply than demand, resulting in devaluation. My gut feel is it will stop at 260. I believe that's the target. It overshot last time, then it had a correction and now it's aiming for it again. Real life stock markets move for a reason - news, speculation, rumours etc., or the reason may be technical - when the price reaches support or resistance levels; buying or selling the trend; a price break out, or other more complex indicators used by traders. The LindeX chart was flat for 4 years, and the only technical indicator was the recent spike (price break out) when it went to 251. The LindeX doesn't work like RL markets because It's not actively traded. Demand is relatively constant, the daily volume is relatively constant, and the vast majority of buyers don't specify a price, but most sellers do. If this happened in a real market the price of Lindens would go up because sellers would have control, until it became too expensive and then demand would decrease, leading to a reversal. Then we would see the normal waves, like in real markets. For 4 years the exchange rate was flat because LL kept it stable. It didn't work like a normal market. That control is no longer in place, and because there is an increase in supply, which is not met by demand, the value of the Linden is dropping. If this increase in L$ came from inworld (mesh body sales or asset sales) then it would be met by an increase in demand for L$, and therefore an increase in daily volume, but no change in the exchange rate. ( I don't believe people are selling hoarded L$.) The only thing that makes any sense to me is that the increase in supply is coming from LL, perhaps to get the LindeX exchange rate to a target level, hopefully no higher than 260. Or perhaps they are just selling L$ to generate revenue. My theory stands despite what Ebbe might say. I mean would he really say that LL are messing with it? Of course not. I'm a stock trader in RL. This is not a normal market.

The reason is the market? I was preparing an answer, but that's just not worth my time

Your question was why. People here are answering you by saying 'because it happens'. That's not an answer. Anyone can look at data and know that it happens. With respect to your question. Why? We don't know why. We can spend days talking about it, and produce pages of guesses. Rest assured, there are many others like you who are also concerned and wondering why. In the real world we have the media, and we get solid reasons. Why did the pound go down? We know why. If we didn't have a logical reason there would be strong concern. Saying that it happens is not a reason. It's just annoying.

Phil Deakins wrote: I'll say it again. Overall, the value hasn't changed in the 9½ years that I've been in SL, so I don't consider the current value, and slight fluctuations, to be of concern or significant. Perhaps what you ought to be thinking is how fortunate you were during the ~4 years when it was below 250. Phil, you might be right, but as you've seen in previous threads on the subject, there are many people who have shown concern. It's just a bit insensitive when you keep saying it's petty. And that's the point I've been trying to make. You've been making your superfluous point from one thread to another, saying it's a petty concern, and you'll probably continue doing so. It's insensitive.

I hope you're right, and 260 wouldn't be too bad. I'll quote you from a previous thead - 'Wasn't it 260 or over at one time? My memory says it was. I used to miss the time before that when it was around 250.' What did you miss about it? Perhaps you did care back then, when you were making decent money.

Phil Deakins wrote: Perhaps those who find the recent increase concerning are those who are relatively recent arrivals. It only takes looking at historical charts and data to know that the L$ has fluctuated in the past. It doesn't mean there's no need for concern now. I don't know how it works where you live, but the Australian Reserve Bank keeps a very sharp eye on the Australian dollar, and will intervene when things are not looking favourable. The Reserve Bank does not say 'this has happened before so it's all normal, there's no need for concern'. It can have serious effects. It may not be a serious situation, at the moment anyway, but it is not correct to say that because it's happened in the past there's no need for concern. If you are a business making money then you probably would be concerned. The trend is definitely up 

Thanks Karen, that's good to know for when I sell next week. Hopefully 254 will still be good to go.

There might be bulk orders at 252 and 253, but it's not going to work for anyone. You'll be waiting a long time even at 254 right now. And yes (here we go again), we all know it has gone up and down in the past, but most people are also aware of the recent 4 year stable exchange rate. Why it was stable and why it is wildly fluctuating right now is the question, and concern. The concern is because nobody knows where it will stop, and neither do you, so I don't think you can tell people there's no need for concern or that nothing has changed. You, like all rest of us, don't know.

Now, the reason this is happening now and not before, I believe it's because Supply Linden used to place high volume walls on both sides. Those walls aren't there anymore.

Elvina Ewing wrote: what i noticed at the time when it settled down on 252 (last week or so) there were like 56 million or so on buy orders... Not so anymore... Maybe there's just too many sellers and not enough buyers? The limit sell orders are almost always filled by market buy orders, which are usually placed in the viewer. This is where the majority of buying comes from. It doesn't come from the buy side, as seen on the LindeX. Market buy orders (like those placed in the viewer) do not appear on the buy side of the LindeX because they are filled instantly from the sell side. You can often see the sell side go down in very small volumes when you refresh. These are your typical small market buy orders being filled. It's almost a continuous flow. The buy side of the LindeX does NOT show demand for L$, as most of the demand is coming from market buy orders, not limit buy orders. What you are seeing on the buy side are limit buy orders only, people who have specified a price. However, I have noticed that a weak volume on the buy side can cause the LindeX exchange rate to increase. I've observed this behaviour - If a very big market sell order is placed it can wipe out the top levels on the buy side in one hit, taking it from 264 to 270. The difference in the spread attracts traders. Once traders start buying and selling they soon start to compete by placing their sell orders at higher levels, thus pushing the exchange rate up on the sell side. I watched this happen a week ago. It took about two days for the buy side to correct itself back to a 10L spread, but it took the sell side up by L$2, and it's staying there.

Sassy Romano wrote: There are many quick, high value (measured in terms of benefit) pieces of low hanging fruit that could have been picked off. Instead, there's a brewery somewhere making cider from all the fermenting fruit picked from the ground. Pamela's comment about LL 'withholding functionality because they are so thoughful' might not be far from the truth. I remember a small beta testing group where a particular low hanging fruit was raised and discussed. At the time, I was very aware of a well known 'brewer' being present (and silent) during that discussion. There was definitely the feeling of a stumbling block.

Sassy Romano wrote: It is a voluntary choice to use SL as a platform after all and with that goes accepting the changes that LL may choose to introduce as a whim. Accepting - that's all we can do. We are quietly accept the higher cash out fees without faster credit processing; and the exchange rate going up again, and when it does stop for another breather it will be at a higher level, and who knows after that. But you are right. It's best to accept it quietly, because anything else is just wasted energy. :smileysad:

Sassy Romano wrote: (Doesn't take twice as long to sell L$ though, just sell at the best rate, same as always) People are trying to preserve their profit. The best rate is going up again. It doesn't take twice as long if accepting less profit doesn't matter to you. But those small amounts matter to most people in SL. For instance, even the tiny upload fees will make them suffer the inconvenience of the beta grid etc. So, accepting a higher rate is not that easy, and if it can be avoided people will try to do it, like going to the beta grid to do their uploads - which is probably a lot less loss than these exchange differences are.

hehe, so true. Like the mesh bodies - so many Laras and Freyas and Isises . Hope I got those right.

OzwellWayfarer wrote: Second, people generally use the review system if they love something, or HATE IT!!!!! Very few people will leave a review if they are merely satisfied. When people are merely satisfied with an item they are reluctant to leave 3 star reviews, because 3 stars is usually saying 'it's good but....'. People don't like raising the negatives because they don't want the drama of having a merchant contact them to discuss it. I can understand this. I do the same.

AdamZadig wrote: What do buyers really think? Would be interesting to get their point of view. I have never been asked by a potential customer if my products are original. The only time buyers are interested in originality is when it comes to exclusive custom work. The subject of original content has only ever been raised by other merchants. But, as Tari suggested, it might be interesting if you asked in the general forum, for a different perspective.