Rya Nitely

So, coming back to the original topic, after our minds were conveniently diverted away from it to more pressing concerns. I don't process credit much these days. I've only done it once since the new fees were introduced, and it took about 5 days. Is anyone experiencing a consistent improvement in cash out times? Is it working as promised? If so, how many cash outs did you have to do for them to get to know you?

I think your main aim here is to give yourself a competitive advantage. It won't work. And neither will the idea of buying reviews, or sending out 100 notecards for people to review a freebie (from a previous post). It's not worth the precious time and effort. In my experience I've found that customers in SL are very savvy - they know quality and they know where to find it. Somehow word gets around - this is your best advertising. The only way to achieve this is time, hard work and of course you need to have the creative ability.

Qie Niangao wrote: That's because, if the Lab dumped a bunch at junk rates just to capture the market for a whie, they'd displace residents who nonetheless will eventually have to sell at some rate -- and while those residents are selling at whatever rate, Supply doesn't get to execute its usual sales. or Supply doesn't need to execute its usual sales. The selling is done, and future need is met in advance.

KarenMichelle Lane wrote: Therefore the overall constant daily volume of $Lindens traded shows that mostly normal trading was occurring on the LindeX. The constant daily volume staying normal makes sense because it is not only determined by supply, it's also determined by demand. If the demand for L$ is unchanged then the daily volume would be unchanged. If we have an increase in supply and no increase in demand, L$/US$ would go up, as we saw, with no change in daily volume. I also sold my L$ during all this, at 263. So people could still sell but at a much higher L$/US$ because of the increased supply feeding an unchanged demand. I'm not saying that LL increased the supply of L$, I'm just speculating like everyone else. But if they did, then it would have the effect we saw.

We will probably never know the reason. The only thing anyone can do is speculate. What we do know is that for over 4 years the market was stable. I'm sure there were plenty of rumours during this time, I'm sure there were always some people wanting to sell fast during this time, but for 4 years resident activity did not nudge that stability by one single point up or down. If this was based on a rumour it would need to be so big and so terrifying we would have heard it. Of course there is no proof that Linden Lab was involved in it. But there is also no proof they weren't. They certainly have the power to do it. If residents had such power and can move the market so significantly, on an unknown rumour or a few people wanting to sell fast, then we would have seen much more volatility over the past 4 years - but we never did. ETA: Reply is more to KarenMichelle

KarenMichelle Lane wrote: Unless you are suggesting that LL was selling the Lindens for USDs which makes no sense. USDs in the escrow account backing up the Linden Token Reserve don't deplete the amount of Linden Tokens available. That USD cash is not available to spend elsewhere. It is the equivalent of using currency [uSD] to back up the Linden Tokens. Linden Lab makes more off the fees charged when the $Linden trades at 251. We discussed this as a possible reason all last week, on this thread and the other one. Also in SLUniverse where the whole thing was actively discussed. This was strongly suggested as a possible reason. Not one person came up with this argument against it. Perhaps you have more insight, because I also don't understand what the 'escrow account' has to do with it. I can't see why Linden Lab can't print new money, if they choose to do so, and sell it for USD. The LindeX has gone back down toaround 252, so they aren't experiencing a significant loss in fees.

Qie Niangao wrote: The quantities seem unlikely too... would these merchants ever cash-out so completely as to need to buy a few thousand L$s in the viewer? I wasn't a merchant in 2008. That was a typical transaction for me back then. I always bought in the viewer, didn't know any better :matte-motes-bashful-cute:

I just checked and I have one too.  no idea. All the craziness pushed some old buried stuff to the surface

Solaris Okumura wrote: If Supply Linden is selling newly created Lindens directly then they make more USD selling at 248 than they do at 258. Yes, anyone who had a choice would sell at 248 rather than 258. But if Supply Linden wanted to sell new Lindens fast, a huge sell order at 248 may have taken months to fill, if ever. Any new sellers, seeing the huge volume at 248, would put theirs at 249. Supply Linden may then cancel at 248 and put orders in at 250, in smaller amounts maybe, and so on. This actually describes what we saw. However, it did occur to me that if Supply Linden wants to sell new L$ then it can be done in the background. All they need to do is fill a significant proportion of market buy orders themselves - why bother with the LindeX. This would explain the low volume and lack of buyers that we saw. Also note, the devaluation of L$ may not have been solely for LL's pockets, it also has the effect of making rent and everything else slightly cheaper for tenants and consumers. This may have been the intent, the extra money a bonus. The maths in Darrius's blog - I'm too lazy to concentrate on it. :matte-motes-bashful-cute:

Couple of write-ups by Darrius http://wp.dgp4sl.com/2016/05/lindex-roller-coaster/ http://wp.dgp4sl.com/2016/05/math-behind-lindex/

wherorangi wrote: yes is very likely in April somebody (or somebodys) noticed the shift to 251 and went hmm! lets see if we can't make some money out of this you know [how] the classic textbook short works, as do a lot of other people who are into this kinda stuff eta: how I just noticed there is a Currency Trader Limit with a maximum of $US1,280,000. I wonder how one qualifies for that. I didn't know that trading the LindeX was even accepted. I thought Supply Linden kept the L$10 spread to stop traders, since that negates any profit. But if it is this easy to do then you'd expect it to happen again and again. Perhaps these people have reached their monthly limit, and are waiting a month before going at it again.

But you see, it started moving last September, after years of stability. Then from February to late April it popped up to 251 - and that's when it started to look concerning. Not so much because 251 is a big increase but when anything pops up from a very steady base it is a signal that more might be coming. Traders call it 'break out' and it's a buy signal in the share market (or a sell signal if the sudden change is down) . If this was resident manipulation then it would have come out of nowhere, but this didn't come out of nowhere. We've had a hint of it for 6 months, and then the big move. When things change rapidly there are always opportunists looking at ways to gain out of it - hence the traders.

Phil Deakins wrote: Wasn't it 260 or over at one time? My memory says it was. I used to miss the time before that when it was around 250. same, I really miss it. I'll even be happy with 251.:smileysad: Seriously, though. We may never know the reason, but most of the SL population gains from it with a cheaper L$, as long as rent and prices aren't raised. If it settles at 260 it gives more weight to a controlled rise rather than the buy down, because it started so suddenly and then ended suddenly.

1000 :matte-motes-tongue: finally, after all these years of posting. How people get to 7000 is beyond me. It will probably take me another 7 years to get to 2000.

Supply Linden could be printing fresh money and filling a significant amount of market buy orders with it. People buy the new L$ and LL gets their US dollars, and that makes them happy, for now. This would explain the market - not enough buyers, so sellers need to compete to sell their Lindens. Quantitative easing is also a reason LL would do this - to make L cheaper for consumers, hence stimulate spending. It's just a theory.

Pamela Galli wrote: But I do think all this is being engineered by LL, tho not quite sure what their ultimate goal is. I assume this is another way to squeeze some income out of creators. The Ebbe quote by eku in SLUniverse is worth putting here too. It sheds some light on things. EL: Well, I’m glad you’re happy. I mean I’ve been saying for quite a while that we’ve been aware that pricing of land has been a core issue, so we’re trying to be sensible about how we start to lower some of the cost, and as you’ve noticed, we’ve also taken some actions to pick-up some of the revenue elsewhere; on the exchange and on the redemption side of the equation to compensate a little bit for this. Because yes, i do believe that the burden of land owners is a bit too high, and we have other people in the world who are sort-of getting away with not being charged enough or taxed enough for how they use the product. So, we’re trying to shift cost from land to other places. https://modemworld.me/lab-chat-3-bento-and-second-life/#mainland __________________________________________________________ However, the current activity is reducing the value of L$ for everyone. Land owners and merchants are feeling the pinch. So, yes, it is giving with one hand and taking with the other. Nobody wins, except LL.

Qie Niangao wrote: The volumes are just way, way too low. What does it mean when there's a large price movement and little or no increase in volume? Simply a good ol' fashioned collapse of demand? Or is there some other explanation that fits these market data? In a normal (unmanipulated) market it means the trend is unlikely to continue. But I don't think this is a normal market. Merchants are reporting that nothing has changed with their sales volumes. Many people say they are not selling because they want 'to accumulate enough Lindens to minimise the credt processing fee'. They don't seem to realise it has nothing to do with selling L$, and by waiting they're losing more money. Some are waiting for things to cool down. So, it doesn't have anything to do with a run on the bank. I think we already know the answer. It's LL, and there's nothing we can do about it. It will stabilise when it reaches their target, whatever that is. It might have been 260, and maybe we overshot with trader activity.

The process credit fee is only charged when you transfer $US to Paypal, not when you sell L$. The only thing that has changed when you sell is that you get less money for your Lindens. It might be better to sell and then hoard your US$. When you hoard L$s at the moment you're losing money, not saving.

you can see the trader(s) throwing 100K at the top of the buy side. When this goes through another 100K appears. Then it gets moved to the top of the sell side, and so on ans so on. As long as the spread is >10L they can make a profit.

Traders are making it worse

Is it against the TOS to trade on the LindeX? Does anyone know? Because to me it looks like obvious trading going on. If we're trying to compete with traders we won't win. They don't care how much they sell for, as long as they are making a profit.

I think there are active traders now, and this is exacerbating the problem. Traders wouldn't care how much they buy or sell for, as long as they make a profit. I don't think the original problem was caused by traders, but they're using the opportunity. To make decent money they'd need to be on high levels, as you say.

SIN Rain wrote: https://community.secondlife.com/t5/Features/Linden-Dollar-Economy-Announcement/ba-p/520952 thanks for the link. It's very informative. Obviously the transparency part is no longer followed.

Qie Niangao wrote: Recent Lindex behaviour looks (to me) a lot like hysterical sellling -- folks piling-on sell orders in fear the price will get "even worse" rather than to generate US$ revenue. I've been trying to sell. I placed an order at 256 yesterday, one point lower than the highest. It didn't sell. I just had a look and the new high is 263. I cancelled and put it in at 263 - it sold. Now if I didn't, I could look tomorrow and find it at 270. It may not really be panic selling, but just people wanting to sell and the only way to do it is to place it at the top of the queue. There seems to be no choice.

Qie Niangao wrote: (In fact, I also think Prok may be onto something, and that folks in general are less motivated by all things Second Life now, while Sansar is building hype. I talk to many of my customers. Whenever I mention Sansar they either don't know what I'm talking about or the general response is 'oh yes, I heard something about that, what is it all about?' Unless something affects them directly they don't seem to know about it. We, in the forums, keep up with the latest news. And my sales are very stable. I'm surprised at how I sell almost the same L$ amount everyday. Nothing has changed in my SL, or with the people I deal with.