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Q2 2011 - Economic report out yet?


Negotium Quan
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Less time online doesn't surprise me since so much has been introduced to the web. My hours inworld have dropped because there are so many things I "used" to do inworld that I can do more efficiently now when I am not logged in. However, I am as active as ever (if not moreso) in my Second Life. The kinds of things I don't log on for anymore:

~ Searching for shopping -> now I do it mostly from the Marketplace and tp to the shop if I need to see something in person

~ Updating profile info regarding customer service. I can do it from web profiles without lag and without im's popping up

Basically, if I am logged in these days, it means I am building or helping customers. My SL related activity hasn't changed - I still work everyday on my SL business - I'm just not always "going to the office" (i.e., logging inworld), instead I'm "working from home". 

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There was a presentation from Rod Humble on SLCC. What he says it that there are about 16.000 new users joining every single day.
They see that these new users of SL is a different demographics then the people who are in world for years already. They are younger, mid twenties, they spend less time in world, but more and more time socializing about the activity, for example on message boards, in profiles, on twitter.

See the interview (at about 22.20 he adresses this subject).

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Pamela Galli wrote:

Not much good (economic) news except the MP seems to be doing well.

 

More registrations but not as much time online, etc.

I just looked through the latest charts and I agree with you Pamela.  What is just as interesting is how the author from LL downplayed the bad news and waved the flag and bragged about the little good news there was in the report.

I took some time this morning to perform a full TOY ASSESSMENT of LL's Q2-2011 Economic summary.  It is detailed enough that I decided to create a blog posting on it.

 

http://toytalks.weebly.com/1/post/2011/08/ll-q2-11-results-bad-hidden-news-with-sugar-on-top.html

 

I went through each stat reported by LL.  Tell me what your thoughts are.

Toy

 

 

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Think I've got a pretty good idea actually, yes. Not engaging in camel spotting personally though, means that I don't need to be concerned with it enough to not take it at face value and can stick to the business of doing business rather than something that can't.

In fact, new unique Merchants are also on the rise as well. Put something resembling science in that scientific thinking. This is business, less need for conjecture and more dealing with facts.

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Dartagan Shepherd wrote:

Think I've got a pretty good idea actually, yes. Not engaging in camel spotting personally though, means that I don't need to be concerned with it enough to not take it at face value and can stick to the business of doing business rather than something that can't.

In fact, new unique Merchants are also on the rise as well. Put something resembling science in that scientific thinking. This is business, less need for conjecture and more dealing with facts.

Dart... show me the report pr stat that there is a growing number of new Merchants and that report better also show the number of Merchants that have abandoned the role and stopped being Merchants.

I have not see this stat anywhere - show me.

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I will believe you when you can show me the stats.... and since you are there - ask them the details like Merchant Abandonment and reduced Merchant activity inworld.

I have Tweeted Rodvik directly and asked him to read my assessment and to talk about these poor and sugar coated numbers while he is at SLCC.

This is a BAD NEWS report and it shows that with Rodvik at the helm... the ship is not showing any signs of turning around.

 

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Sorry, that was badly worded, I'm not there. Watching the stream that's going on now. Meant that my own research has been verified by the Linden statement. It's also not hard research to do. Very easy on the otherhand to dispute it with no research to indicate otherwise.

A good stat to ask for though, perhaps we may get that if we ask nicely.

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If you caught the end of that, about those stats. Seems like they will be considering very detailed stats in the future for added value to Merchants, but not for the near future. I'm ok with that, personally.

I'm not here to bet on a losing horse, and so far even with specific areas being flat by the numbers, is proving to be the right bet. YMMV.

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I'll withdraw my own interpretation when it's been conclusively demonstrated that it's any more shamelessly spun that LL's.

They're the ones producing the data, so the burden is on them to show that the data say what they say they say.

Absent that, I'm just applying Occam's Razor.

The Lindens have been either incorrect or dishonest about almost everything they've said so far this month, so it's a huge leap of faith to think they wouldn't be incorrect or dishonest about this, too.

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Josh Susanto wrote:

I'll withdraw my own interpretation when it's been conclusively demonstrated that it's any more shamelessly spun that LL's.

They're the ones producing the data, so the burden is on them to show that the data say what they say they say.

Absent that, I'm just applying Occam's Razor.

The Lindens have been either incorrect or dishonest about almost everything they've said so far this month, so it's a huge leap of faith to think they wouldn't be incorrect or dishonest about this, too.

You're already calling official statements and facts lies, despite that you're continually proven wrong. If everything is a lie, there's isn't a conversation to be had, when there are no facts at all. More facts aren't going to help you, in this case.

Surely you can see how silly that is. It doesn't resemble business or science.

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Josh Susanto wrote:

I'll withdraw my own interpretation when it's been conclusively demonstrated that it's any more shamelessly spun that LL's.

They're the ones producing the data, so the burden is on them to show that the data say what they say they say.

Absent that, I'm just applying Occam's Razor.

The Lindens have been either incorrect or dishonest about almost everything they've said so far this month, so it's a huge leap of faith to think they wouldn't be incorrect or dishonest about this, too.

Its not that the LL Q2 report is lying.... as my assessment shows many examples of, the report is a mix of reporting "trivial classed" data that without deeper details provides very little to get an accurate TRUE assessment of the sistuation.  Then where the stats show GOOD or BAD news, the Author blatently spins his/her interpretation of the results... jumping from Current/past Q deltas when bad news and Current to Last year results when the results looks good.

 

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I don't deny the numbers they posted as such.

I simply deny that they've adequately explained the criteria used to generate them.

When and where, BTW have I yet been proven wrong about anything?

Quoting an official statement is not proving me wrong; it's just invoking the same authority I'm questioning, so the reasoning in that is pretty circular.

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Agreed, this conversation will continue to be cyclic until they do something about it. Hoping they will wake up and provide us with a more mature space in which to network. In the meantime, the rest of us might like to be respected as serious and thoughtful.

As you've stated clearly in your other posts, you're not concerned with the short term negative effects that your tactics might have on other Merchants. Thanks for attempting to prove everything a lie for the greater good. Not buying that particular hair tonic that cures warts though, I want a refund.

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How, exactly, have my actions so far actually hurt either you or anyone you can name in any identifiable way?

If you want me to stop, anyway, the you should put pressure on LL to start walking the walk instead of just talking the talk,

As far as I'm concerned this is a fight they picked, and which they choose to continue.

Meanwhile, I suppose it's fair to update you on my situation as a merchant, because it's not irrelevant to this discussion as a whole.

Dakota's advice on how to stop the delivery failures didn't produce any results, so I just started looking for any other possible thing I might try that could possibly help, and I have found two things that have helped a lot (100% delivery rate at this point, apparently), but they're things that Lindens would absolutely never suggest - and not because they're violations of anything.

Naturally, you'll want me to tell you what they are, and that's fair. But I won't do that until Linden has already identified what I'm doing and found some way to stop it (not because they're violations, but because they think they need to shut me down anyway). And that might not be for a while. The way I'm doing things now is really, really weird.. to the point where if you told me it might work, I wouldn't believe it myself without trying it. Indeed, it should not work, and yet it does, or, so far, seems to.

If the delivery problem is really effectively solved in my case (not sure yet), I intend to raise my prices, bundle about 100 of my prodcucts, and buy one listing enhancement for that package.

What I will not do, though, is relent from providing possible explanation for Linden behavior where such explanation is otherwise lacking, or take anything Lindens say at face value, ever again. For a very, very long time I gave them the benefit of a doubt about everything, again and again and again. But they have very thoroughly vacated that privelege with me now, as they clearly have, also with other people.

If your business suddenly declined by 90% or more and didn't begin to normalize after a few days, even after you did everything right, you'd want some kind of credible explanation, wouldn't you?

There isn't even one significant aspect of the whole process so far that hasn't been changed since I started here in a way that has made it more difficult for me to make money.

 

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A couple of points I'd like to add. I've just finished watching Rod Humble's keynote speech (thank you for the link Madeliefste) and I heard a number of things that sound very promising. However the one thing that struck me was that the information he gave out was good solid numbers and details about initiatives within the Lab that would be incredibly beneficial for us to receive ... once a week, not once a year.

This forum isn't juvenile by its very nature, it resorts to juvenile antics because we are suffering a vacuum of critical planning information.

This is the crucial point between you and me Mr. Shepherd. You see the promise of Linden Lab and Second Life and you're content to trust in their ability to pull it off. Even lacking knowledge of what that might be, you are willing to trust they know where they're going .. and follow with.

However I'm on the other side of that same coin. I see the promise of Second Life, but I've lost faith and trust in Linden Lab. I need to have that trust rebuilt before I will allow them to take steps toward any future without explaining what is going on first. So I, along with many others, raise loud voices to the heavens to try and get someone in charge to tell us ... what the heck is going on!

It's not just my issue either. I do know (after years of working with multinational companies) that this attitude I have is much more prevalent in the USA than it is in many other countries, but it's not just an American issue either. It is a feeling of concern, especially when mixed in with past history and what feels like daily insults to our own plans, that the ones in charge actually "get it".

Rod Humble seems to "get it". He even spoke to a lot of my personal concerns and said words that make me believe he sees SL with a clarity no prior CEO has (including Philip .. GASP!). But once a year, hearing that vision and being kept informed as to what is coming next ... that's just too long to wait.

BTW: I blogged about the Q2 stats as well, but I'll leave it as an exercise for others to find their way there.

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Agreed on nearly all of that except for the methods.

No one has an absolute handle on what the secret sauce is for SL, and I love that our CEO prefers the ambiguity of it all. You know, most of my points and sticking up for LL comes from the fact that I've been an employer all of my adult life, some of it involving similar ventures, so all my life I've dealt with this "us and them" thing and I'm extremely sympathetic to LL's position.

So many things that you could, but just don't share with your customer base because it's not needed, often misinterpreted, often not engraved in stone in order to be flexible, some things are no ones business but the companies, etc. Also ok with the unknowns.

What I do see is $75M in profit and a growing Marketplace, some growing pains, some issues that take significantly longer to implement than to suggest. So it's not just blind trust, I'm basing it on past performance, which from a company and profit standpoint is actually very, VERY good.

I would even agree that some 3 years back we had this big dry spell of communication where antics would have been justifiable. Thankfully we've now gotten much better communication and need to make the most of that.

Here's something to chew on, and this is not at all directed at you, willing to concede that you're a fine developer and in touch with many issues on a professional level.

When you take all of the conjecture and then actually do get explanations of things that went wrong, have you noticed that the conjecture almost NEVER matches the actual explanation?

Simple answer is not because we're uneducated, it's because there's a sheer amount of data that we don't see and don't need to.

Great to have a conversation with you for a change :)

Don't miss the future of Second Life talk going on now if you can manage. One of my favorite Lindens, Esbee is talking. Wouldn't be a proper presentation without Esbee.

 

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Agreed .. but if we start actually having conversations, what are the rest of the Forumites gonna do for entertainment? LOL

I guess I'm the type that sees tomorrow's footprints and yearns to get there NOW dangit! Yes indeed, the level of communication has drastically improved. And the picture of what they have is coming into sharper focus too I believe. But I'm not satisfied yet, and probably won't be until a few days after they close my casket. Maybe! *grin*

However .. regarding that "Secret Sauce" .. the recipe is actually out there. I heard in Rod's message that this new play area they were creating was to help them learn how the tools work and what they should do. That's very admirable that he's actually pouring out mud for his kids to play in and get to learn what we already know. But we already know that mud, pretty darn well, so I hope he'll come grab some of us and drag us over to act as tutors and fellow adventurers. We can add so much more when we partner with the Labbies as they discover "New Stuff" that to us is old ... and we can also discover "New Stuff" illuminated by the Labbies knowledge of what really can and cannot be done.

i absolutely agree .. the magic and success that we call Second Life truly is an amazing accomplishment. Now it's time to kick it into high gear, get both teams pushing from the same side ... and lets make this thing ROCK!

PS: How do I tune into the streams?

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