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Two questions to everybody but especially to those who may be considering or may have considered to sell their works in Sansar:

What kind of price level should we expect there?

And which factors will be relevant for determining price levels?

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Tough to say without knowing the monetization schemes in Sansar.

Personally I'd be more interested in keeping my profit roughly the same in both places, without knowing more.

If I paid little to nothing in land, and Sansar commission is 30%, my prices would be 25% higher in Sansar.

If I was paying for a few sims and my "land"/hosting costs in Sansar is 1/3 of the price that I'm paying in SL, then I'd deduct 2/3s of my hosting cost from SL and add 25% commission difference.

Basically though, the merchants from SL who don't have land and charge the same prices for their products in Sansar that they do in SL are going to be making a lot less money from Sansar that they do in SL.

You can't really factor in whether Sansar will provide more buying power to make up for higher commissions because LL is horrible at attracting and keeping new users for the last years and because I think most people in Sansar will just be those who migrated there from SL, so there's a chance that buying power will be far less in Sansar.

This is really the irksome part of Sansar higher commissions because what we need as merchants from LL in Sansar isn't a shopping cart and LL as a middleman UNLESS they can provide buying power. I don't care that they can act as a middleman unless they can bring the shoppers. If they can't bring more shoppers, all they're doing is taking more and forgetting what their role actually is.

On the positive side, we might see many "Sansars" out there, since the development barrier to entry to build something like a Sansar is far easier than building something like SL. Assuming I've got it right and that Sansar "experiences" are just a browser based instance with VR capabilities. The only bits unique to LL will be their fake money and a truckload of free-play style monetization. Other alternatives may turn out to be less costly for the merchant.

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Customer: "Hi, i've just bought your [product name] in SL and i'd like to use it in Sansar, can I have a free delivery there too please?" Merchant: "Sansar and SL are different platforms...yes I know the currency is the same... I understand your frustration but you'll need to purchase it again." Customer: "Wait, i've just looked and you're charging 30% more in Sansar in SL, you're a money grubbing thieving merchant, i'm never buying from you again!" I can honestly say that i'm glad I won't be selling anything in Sansar :)

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Sassy Romano wrote:

Customer: "Wait, i've just looked and you're charging 30% more in Sansar in SL, you're a money grubbing thieving merchant, i'm never buying from you again!"


Interesting. That is amazingly similar to the reaction LL will get from a large number of merchants when they discover that they are charging a higher comission in Sansar than in SL.

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DartAgain wrote:

If I paid little to nothing in land, and Sansar commission is 30%, my prices would be 25% higher in Sansar.

If I was paying for a few sims and my "land"/hosting costs in Sansar is 1/3 of the price that I'm paying in SL, then I'd deduct 2/3s of my hosting cost from SL and add 25% commission difference.

Hmmmm. My personal ballpark figure was actually something like 5-10 times SL prices, that is something closer to the general price level elsewhere.


DartAgain wrote:

...

so there's a chance that buying power will be far less in Sansar.

Yes, I think that's a fairly safe bet for a large number of reasons, including the one you mentioned.


DartAgain wrote:

On the positive side, we might see many "Sansars" out there, since the development barrier to entry to build something like a Sansar is far easier than building something like SL.

Good point. If Sansar show any kind of success it will inspire a myriad of copycats of course.

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This is interesting to think about because real world economics might help to predict the future trends in Sansar.

DarkAgain's response seems to follow the "cost of living" model. I think they might be on to something. If residents of Sansar have a lower cost on housing then their overall budget may go more towards goods.

At this point, I think that our best info is that Lindens will be the currency. So just talking about the US dollar, we get an exchange rate of about 250 L for every dollar?  That will be a familiar feeling to anyone coming from SL. I bet at first their will be a boom in Sansar of SL residents coming to visit out of curiosity.

I would also suspect that goods in Sansar will cost a bit more than SL. If we looked at the higher end goods of SL made out of world by creators with lots invested in their products, that might give insight to the economy in Sansar. Won't all the goods there be made out of world by people with higher level skills? These creators are already showing us what they think their time and efforts are worth by the prices they set them for in SL. 

So the parameters of our guess would be : 

1. RL people's budgets for their virtual leisure.

2. Professional ( or semi) Creators value of their time and effort. 

3. A mentally of a linden dollars value carried over from the pre-existence of this currency.  ( cost of living would factor into this area)

I keep thinking Sansar's economy will mimic a RL vacation town. Something about the economy will be off, because few people living in the area can find work that supports them to live in a vacation town.  Therefore, the entire class of residents will be missing from the circle of money flow. ( in SL many residents support themselves in the game off what they create in world, back in the day simple things like shapes etc) This would spell death for an area unless they can keep up the novelty affect and continue to attract visitors to spend outside money.  I don't know.   I am probably making a comparison to much of SL residents, who knows what crowd Sansar will attract ? If it is their first time seeing a linden exchange ? They could be cheap? But then It should come back to the creators having a value in their minds for their time and work. Sadly, if they can make a go of it they leave. But hahahha artist love RL vacation towns cause people love to treat themselves. Ahahahahahhh idk. 

 

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Mostly prices will be set by the classic supply and demand.  However other factors will also enter into it.  Some factors that I think will effect the price of goods is

  • The time and effort it takes to create something and the amount the seller thinks this is worth (probably higher since it will only be pro's and very skilled people doing this for profit not for fun)
  • The cost to the seller of any content creator licensing fees or requirement for premium membership, if any
  • The tax rate if the tax is charged to the seller (which will be passed along to the consumer)
  • The number of sellers selling similar items and what they are charging (the competition)
  • The cost of land if the seller has an in world store (cheaper so will push price down slightly)

If the tax is charged like sales tax to the consumer they will figure in the tax for the total cost of acquisition when making buying decisions.

Overall I think total acquisition prices will be higher.

 

 

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Amethyst Jetaime wrote:

Overall I think total acquisition prices will be higher.


Yes, I think we can take that for granted. Five other reasons:

  • The risk. There is absolutely no guarantee you'll get anything at all in return for the time and money you spend on you work. It'll take a year or two before we can know for sure if Sansar succeeds and even if it does, it's hard to predict exactly what kind of products will sell there.
  • No back catalog. Most merchant-creators who actually make a living in SL are old established ones with a catalog of items that have sold steadily over the years and still contribute to the bottom line. No such thing in Sansar - everybody start from scratch.
  • Reduced customer base. Another important reason why some people actually manages to make an income from SL, is that they've built up a good and faithful customer base over the years. Some will follow to Sansar of course but not everybody.
  • A very limited direct-to-end-user market for rezzables. There won't be many people shopping for houses or plants or even furniture in Sansar. It will mostly be ready-made themed housings with everything included.

 

Edit: completely forgot the fifth reason!: No collectors' market. Gacha items and other collectibles make up an amazing large part of SL's economy right now. It'll take years before that becomes a factor at Sansar - if it ever does.

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Bobbie Faulds wrote:

Bottom line...we don't know yet. Almost nothing has been release on what the pricing will be so it's really impossible to do more than speculate.

You are absolutely correct Bobbie. But there's a good reason we keep posting these "speculative" threads: Feedback.

For years we have spoken out whenever and wherever we can in order to keep Linden Lab aware of our desires, likes and dislikes. Also over that same time they have taken precious little of what we say into account when making changes. Now with Sansar they have not only neglected to ask their existing customer base what they would like to see in a NEW product, but have also neglected to let anyone know what the shape of the new product will be.

So lacking any viable and company provided channel by which to offer suggestions, advice or interests, we resort to the one channel we know they look at from time to time .. the Forums.

There have been some very scary (albeit sketchy and incomplete) tidbits dropped about Project Sansar. In the hopes that LL doesn't spend a lot of time and effort creating something that is inately Dead On Arrival, we continue to push, pull and shove them in the direction we want them to go.

After all, being their customers, we kinda feel like we know what we'll buy and what we won't. Of course it is up to LL whether they listen to their customers or not. Since they seem content to turn a deaf ear, and also seem content to watch their company and product decline even further, this is probably wasted effort. But the prospect that they're ignoring us has never stopped us before! Why should it now? *grin*

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This is true. Case in point is the elimination of proper sir names. Just about everyone I've talked to liked them and wants thwm back even though LL claimed that the majority of people DON'T want them. Sure would eliminate the creative spellings you see for first names. How many ways can you spell Gwendolyn or any other first name? You also lose out on the clever names like Peppermint/Pepperment Twist for instance

 

 

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There's a fine fine line between releasing a pre-alpha that only has "sketched" in features that vaguely work or don't work at all (thus inciting an angry mob here) and keeping your customers ( and competitors ) in the loop on what your newest greatest thing is.  So they can work on it ( or beat you to it ).   Speculation is fun and all ~ but until we even get a firm understanding of what Sansar is ~ I find theorizing about potential market discrepancies to be largely pointless.  It's been indicated multiple times that Sansar & Second Life will likely not attract the same customer base as Sansar is largely a "platform as a service" rather than a "virtual playground".

That being said ~ the sales model for Second Life will probably be completely obsolete in terms of it's useability for Sansar.  In second life we have individual inventories, each purchased item is guarded against duplication and transfer to another inventory of which is owned by a different person.   The way Sansar is sounding like it's shaping up to be~  they're going for more of a hosting service, which means that the vast majority of connected users will have no interest in "inventories" or "avatars" at all, they'll be there to look at their apartment floor plan or shoot their monsters or play their game ~ etc etc.  The point is, it's a fairly reasonable assumption that the majority of sales will be on a per experience host basis~ rather than a per user.  AKA ~  Everything you, as a creator sell is 'full perms' to be used in an 'experience'.  The purchaser will gain rights to use that item in whatever experiences they create.  Connected users will gain temporary use out of whatever resources the experience offers, and then will not retain that once they leave the simulation.

TLDR~ I think ya'll are comparing apples to oranges here!  But it's fun to think about!!

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polysail wrote:

[...]

TLDR~ I think ya'll are comparing apples to oranges here!  But it's fun to think about!!

I have spent a lot of time canvassing the people in my circles about the viability of a Sansar Project type product in their sphere. The ones in particular that I've focused on are those in the "Expendable Income" demographic .. that are also technology chasers. These are the people that are fascinated by new toys (like Oculus Rift) and are also raised in the Internet Era. Wanna know what they say about a "Platform" experience as you describe?

"No thanks."

Even mainstream "experiences" like WoW and the genre provide personal items and offer many goodies for them to collect and enjoy. But mainly they come to those platforms for the engagement, the excitement and the instant gratification it provides. (And in some cases, the instant rage-quit antics too. LOL)

Second Life has succeeded because it is NOT a high-speed, high-energy, stress-filled environment. It is not "do it now or die". It is a place for expression, dawdling, day dreaming and just wandering about experiencing what the world has to offer. It is a place of reflection and creativity. It is filled with the expressions and creations from 100's of thousands of others.

Gaming platforms, and other "experiences" of the same ilk are made for immediate action, reflexive response and high-adrenaline engagement. It is massively expensive to place an entry into the genre, and those with less than top of the line offerings sink into oblivion overnight.

So what you are saying (and since you obviously have insider info) is that Linden Lab is going to hitch their wagon to an endeavor where they have no experience, no in-house talent, no name and insufficient money. They are going to tie the future of their company .. and by extension their ONE and ONLY success  .. to a guaranteed failure all in the pursuit of fatter-pocket potential customers ... none of whom want anything like what Linden Lab can do.

Those of us who have paid to keep LL running all these years, those of us being abandoned for all our hard work and personal investment .. THOSE OF US who have been the only reason SL lives and LL is still around? We're being told to go away .. cuz LL wants more money.

Guess what? They won't get it.

And THAT dear polysail .. isn't speculation.

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Here is a bit of actual fact that seems to contradict some of the "of course" type statements here.

I am, by the way, in the "we can't know anything until we are there" camp.

 

I have been selling in Second Life for about six and a half years. I also have been selling in Opensim for about a year.  Here is what I can say that might shift some thoughts on other platforms.

Price of my OS sim per month (15,000 prim and basically just the same as Second Life but for sometimes problematic physics ) = $4.34 US.

 

I sell mostly houses and commercial buildings and many of those are sales from the Kitely Market which sells to Opensim residents thoughout the hypergrid. Kitely takes 20% of each sale if it is in US dollars (the other type of sale gives you credits that you cannot turn into real life money). You also have to wait 45 days to get your money from each sale; it then goes straight to Paypal.

 

Now you would suspect that these facts would mean there wouldn't be much market in Opensim and no profit for creators --  and it is certainly true that I make less there than in Second Life.

 

But here's the kicker. I sell houses there for $15 and $20 US (and some for $5 and less too - some prim some mesh). Most of my SL houses are around  $2-3US simply because there are SO MANY creators and so many choices and even the most popular creators sell at very very low prices now (compared to earlier times) . We call that compitition and I am all for it.  

 

But don't overlook the fact that sometimes folks really WANT things and when there are limited choices the people making the items that buyers like the best will get the benifit of the sales.

 

 

 

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Wow! 45 days! Okay, remind me not to complain about the five days in SL. (Nahh .. nvm. I'll complain anyway. LOL)

One point that I want to underline in your excellent explanation is: SL and OpenSim are essentially the same "thing". They are both open virtual worlds wherein anyone participating in the "game" can also create things they want. They are grown from the premise that people want to wander around and fill up their surroundings with stuff. And for most of that stuff, the concept is that it can be either built or bought.

But apparently the market dynamics envisioned in Sansar are totally different. Unlike the "Open Air Swap Meet" dynamics of SL and OS, Sansar will be more a Tiffany's or Nordstrom's. (For non-USA people, those are higher-end retail stores that specialize in high quality items that can be found in multiples, but are rather specialized and often produced in limited runs or small quantities.)

Apparently Sansar will not so much offer the building tools as part of the platform, but will depend on separate creation tools that are rather pricey and often hard to master. From our resident mole, we have learned that they intend to actually exclude the ability to create and instead focus on pre-made "Experiences" that will be sold as either full packages or in installments to the customers flocking to fill Sansar's servers.

And that's where I run into a basic flaw in the concept. The price model exploited by the likes of Tiffany's is based on a small number of potential customers, but those customers are also willing (and able) to pay higher prices. While many may appreciate the beauty, elegance and quality of the items they sell ... very few actually purchase from them because the price is just too high to justify.

The model in SL is rather more informal, and also tailored to a much broader audience. As clothing makers in SL will tell you, every single buyer has their preference for how things look, fit, flow and of course the colors matter too. In short, variety and an overabundance is almost a necessity for the model to work, not so much an accidental outcome.

Somehow the management at LL has determined that requiring a quality and price like that of Tiffany's can also be peddled to the Walmart crowd simply by gluing some neat technology on the front. Yeah, chrome is neat, but it doesn't turn a Rambler into a Porsche.

It would be very interesting indeed to see how management sold the concept to the investors. As someone who has put a massive portion of my life's income back into creating and growing real-world businesses, and who has had to justify to very astute investors why they should do the same, I find it amazing that the current flock bankrolling LL has been convinced to dump the only money-maker in the company's history .. for a pipe-dream of grander riches pursuing a totally unique concept that has not only never been successful, but has not even reached sufficient definition to be understood.

We shall see .. that's for sure. But I'll be amazed if the outcome with Sansar doesn't have direct and very consequential affects on the lifeline of SL too.

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Sansar could be this.... 100 high class and prestigious merchants selling to 2000 silver spoons with total gross profits of say $20,000,000 annually.

or

Sansar could be this.... 10,000 prominent merchants selling to 200,000 Hoi polloi (along with everyone else) with total revenue of say $200,000,000 annually.

Nine out of ten peeps speculate it will be the first one, and God help us if it is.

Even if the earnings ratio is much higher in the first possibility when compared to the second, what good is that? It will just leave it open for someone to do it right eventually and ultimately put the first possibility out of business due to the loneliness factor even by itself, unless a riffraff accepting and supporting SL2 is produced in which case SL2 would put Sansar out of business for that same major reason.

 

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I don't have "insider information" I just peruse every little soundbyte that is recorded from Ebbe whilst working away on my projects.

I think you've misunderstood what a "platform as a service" is, so I'll do my best to clarify! ^^

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platform_as_a_service

A "Platform as a Service" is an attempt to make some set of tasks "more user friendly".  The expression is usually used in relation to webhosting, but Linden Labs seems intent upon making that level of usability available for Virtual Reality.  I believe the term "Wordpress of VR" has been tossed around rather extensively.

 

So !! What this means is the idea is basically to provide people the means to "create a virtual world" easily, whether what that person creates is a 'on the edge of your seat' shoot-at-things game, a sex simulator or simply something as mundane as letting prospective renters wander around a scale model of the floorplan of an apartment building, LL wants Sansar to make setting that whole thing up easier.  The idea is~ no matter what the designer wishes, they can build, host and invite people to their special experience they've created with the help of the designers on Sansar and the hosting provided by Linden Labs.  The degree of "flashyness" and interactivity etc etc will be entirely dependant upon the experience designer.

I've often stated this when discussing Sansar.

Sansar is the platform that could be used to create SL 2.0 if someone decided to undertake such a task.   But Sansar, in of itself is not SL 2.0

 

EDIT: Muph~ replying to your 2nd essay too Darrius.

Sansar will have a reduced number of merchants providing services and goods on the platform due to the slight increase in design complexity.

Sansar has ( as best I can understand from what I've heard ) no Prim system, it's scripting language is C#, and everything that is set up "in world" will be made out of mesh.

So designers for Sansar will need ~ at the very minimum an understanding of meshes, UV maps and some rudimentary programming.  Which isn't all that different from modern era SL~~  The big difference is, you can't start off knocking two blocks together in world and "grow up" into a designer.  Which is sad really ~ but, it's been mentioned that SL isn't exactly going away~  so for people who have the desire to clunk boxes together can still do so.

SL is presently full of 1000's of creative people who stopped building when mesh came along because mesh was too complex, and they felt their work got overshadowed~  as their prims & sculpt box clunking never quite could contend with the sleek shiny meshes in their eyes.  Unfortunately those designers won't be able to find a home on Sansar  ((unless they learn mesh!! It's not that hard! )).  Everyone else who's learned a little mesh, (theoretically) can. Although I personally suspect even some of the biggest brand names in SL will struggle to meet Sansar's build-requirements.  Polygon & Texture efficiency seems a foreign concept to many an SL designer.  :matte-motes-crying:

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Now that you have digested my previous essay .. let's address your analogy to "Wordpress of VR".

Wordpress began with the idea of making it easier for the average person to create and run a blog of their own. They listened to the people that first came to them, they made changes to make the platform easier to use, and they obeyed market dynamics. (e.g.: follow the money)

LL has done everything in their power to thwart their customers. Now with Project Sansar they are saying ".. and we've finally found a path that will make you go away."

Wordpress listened. LL has turned a deaf ear.

Wordpress has updated their offerings, added new technology and worked hard to make it easier to use. LL has mostly abandoned their technology, put all their money into chasing pipe dreams, and has refused to adopt any suggestions that would increase their income and user retention.

So .. wanna try a different analogy this time?

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That's because brick and mortar places tend to be woefully inadequate when searching for a very specific thing~  thankfully ~ through the magic of online marketplaces, I've found a solution for you!

http://www.amazon.com/Gogh-Stained-Glass-Coloring-Book/dp/0486456714
::winks::

In all seriousness though~   I learned mesh way before I came to SL ~ My cube-clunking took place years ago.  For years, it was for me, what it is for many people on SL~ a wonderfully time consuming hobby.  Then at the prodding of my friends, I started to take it seriously.

If you want to talk developmental & incremental training though, I recommend these things:
http://www.lego.com/en-us/ideasproducts

Which gets people thinking spatially~  then you can graduate to
https://minecraft.net/

By the time that gets boring you might consider something like

https://secondlife.com or http://www.garrysmod.com/

Blender is a great way for people to start "clunking mesh cubes" so to speak.   And the ENTIRE autodesk software suite is available for free on a limited 3 year student license.

https://www.blender.org/
http://www.autodesk.com/education/free-software/all
http://www.autodesk.com/products/maya-lt/overview
http://pixologic.com/sculptris/

My point is this~  There's hundreds of thousands of us out there~  with spatial minds, who model and build in our spare time.  The "barrier of entry" into Sansar is hardly the Black Gate.  And even with that towering edifice~ a pair of sneaksy hobbitses found their way around it because they wanted to.

If everything is as bad as you think it is, none of these communities would work:
https://player-studio.daybreakgames.com/
http://steamcommunity.com/workshop/
http://www.nexusmods.com/games/?
https://www.assetstore.unity3d.com/en/
https://www.unrealengine.com/marketplace

And that's not even counting all the professionals.

Anyhow~  since none of us really know what Sansar's market is going to be like I feel like perhaps it would almost be more productive if we discussed how a dog would wear pants.

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polysail wrote:

In all seriousness though~   I learned mesh way before I came to SL ~ My cube-clunking took place years ago.  For years, it was for me, what it is for many people on SL~ a wonderfully time consuming hobby.  Then at the prodding of my friends, I started to take it seriously.

Thank you for making my point.

Cube clunking is how we learn. Legos are made so that rank beginners can stick a few blocks together and make something. Legos offer an on-ramp that is low enough for even toddlers to enter, and yet long enough that absolutely amazing things can be built. Most stop along the ramp owing to skills, desire or other factors. But they ALL get on the ramp at the beginning.

Sansar lops off the entry portion of the ramp. Removed, Deleted, Unwelcomed.

Since Legos were your analogy (this time) play it out in your mind. How successful would Legos be if they required only those with engineering degrees or willing to invest many hours of unpaid time to learn the intricacies of stress points and leverage in a physical system.

The analogy of "Wordpress of VR" no matter who coined it is still an excellent goal. But you don't get there by demanding top-notch skills, massive personal investment or financial resources unequalled by the majority of the population.

How far would Wordpress have gotten if they required their customers to be published authors first?

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I am not exactly replying to you but we'll go with that :D.

 

Agreed that what Sansar was originally described as in the beginning -- something like "SL but better" (not going to look that up but sure I have it somewhere ) -- and what it has apparently become (morphed, been reveal as, hinted as being etc.) are very different things. 

Cloud Party toward the end was getting to be more "experienced based" however folks still wanted their own space and their own look. Not sure if there is a comparison there or not. Again, we won't know until we know :D.

 

Somewhere in this thread toward the beginning it was mentioned that only the big boys and pro content creators will be taking part and selling.  I can certainly see that point of view IF they actually build a whole experience. That would be much like an Artist in Residents grantee making their whole sim themself or in a group.  There is the other side though and it has been mentioned on some blogs, that it is likely that folks wanting to make "experiences" will not have ALL the skills needed. So they will need to buy scripts, and animations, and mesh etc to complete there vision.

 

That isn't a WHOLE lot different than SL for some folks.

 

What I really came back to add was this quote from Ebbe floating around the web. It may have origianlly come from this interview; so prevelent it is getting muddy.  http://www.psfk.com/2015/12/social-virtual-reality-makers-of-second-life-oculus-rift-linden-lab.html

“We want to lower the barrier of entry for VR experience creation. Project Sansar will do for virtual experiences what WordPress has done for the Web: empower a broad range of people to create with professional quality and reach global audiences.

By greatly expanding who can create virtual experiences, Project Sansar will also extend the value of VR to a wide variety of usecases—from gaming and entertainment to education, architecture, art, community-building, business meetings, healthcare, conferences, training, and more.”

 

That does NOT sound like only the top 2% of content creators can play
:D

 

ALSO: Please people,
read the TOS for the Autodesk educational editions
. The software packages including MAYA are ONLY TO BE USED IN A CLASSROOM EDUCATIONAL SETTING AND CANNOT BE USED FOR PROFIT OR EVEN FOR PERSONAL USE -- ONLY FOR LEARNING. 

This passing around incorrect info really needs to get a handle on it.

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