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Tolya Ugajin

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Everything posted by Tolya Ugajin

  1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ I took their table about 1/2 way down and applied a weighted average for workforce demographics (the average retirement age in the US is 62, to I took 1/5 of the 60-69 age group). Somewhat crude, but google doesn't cooperate when asked for just working age adults. I have seen no data from any source that would indicate a higher percentage.
  2. Let's be especially morbid. Every working age adult gets Covid. About 0.5% of them die (that's the lethality for working age adults). You would have absenteeism issues for a few weeks, but your meat packing plants will still run fine. Might not be a bad idea to do what I did weeks ago - screw the TP, stock up on frozen and canned foods and things like pasta with long shelf lives and lots of ways to prepare. It's not that there are no healthy workers available - the total confirmed cases (all ages, not just people in the workforce) is just over 1.2% of the US workforce - , it's
  3. Lethality rate for all persons (including those with underlying health conditions) for Covid is under 0.5%. For school age children, it is comparable to the lethality of measles (0.2%), which is also extremely communicable. I'm reasonably certain that schools were open prior to a measles vaccine being available in the mid-60's. Note, if anything the current lethality rate data for Covid is overstated, because, unlike measles, it is easy to have Covid and not be sure that's what it is (thus, many cases are not counted). When the cure prescribed will kill more people than the illness, it
  4. Just gonna slide this in here... U.N. STUDY: GLOBAL EXTREME POVERTY COULD DOUBLE BY NEXT YEAR DUE TO COVID LOCKDOWNS by Kevin Ryan The economic fallout of the coronavirus shutdowns could increase global poverty by more than half a billion people, or 8% of the total human population. This would be the first time that poverty has increased globally in thirty years, since 1990. That according to a study by the research wing of the U.N. The paper estimates that if household income falls by 20%, which it is projected to do for several months, the number of extremely poor peopl
  5. Right now, I'm listening to by fiancé's family chat from 2 provinces via skype on our weekly drinking party. Better than any song.
  6. Atheists, Muslims, and born-again Christians have no sense of humour when it comes to religion. You should be fine - normal Christians don't get upset with Jesus on toast or Walking Dead characters named Jesus, so why should they be upset about a Jesus avatar. Besides, popular portrayals of Jesus look more or less like an average hipster today.
  7. Where you pulled that out of your behind is beyond me. You laid out a hypothetical of no lockdowns in the US at all but that would still mean a loss of imports and exports, along with a nonsensical tangent about retail. I used actual data to estimate economic impact of that scenario. Most jobs being effected by the lockdowns have nothing to do with import or export - they are service jobs primarily - restaurants, bars, travel, and retail being the hardest hit sectors. Under the scenario YOU laid out, those would all still be open. International travel is accounted for under imports and ex
  8. All you need is for Peter Jackson to make a trilogy out of the Silmarillion there, and tourism will be back in no time. Of course, if he bastardizes it the way he did The Hobbit, I just might feed him to sharks.
  9. Personally, I love baby goats. Preferably in this form:
  10. Ummmm, maybe this sort of thread isn't really for you after all? Counting doesn't seem to be your strong suit. By the way, you're "11" was also supposed to be 12, so this is 13.
  11. Rather vague and subjective, isn't it? What do you mean by "try"? The best what? How is it measured? It makes me think of one of my favorite movie lines of all time.
  12. Locking down an island 3,800 kilometers from the nearest continent is also a tad easier than locking down a country with around 14,000 kilometers of land borders that also happens to account for 1/7th of the total global economy. But the loss of overseas trade doubtless had hurt your economy even more than it has the US. As for our form of government, we've become so dysfunctional that I'm starting to think a return to good old fashioned monarchy would be preferably.
  13. Interesting idea. Let's run some numbers. Exports account for just over 12% of our economy. Thus far, the drop in exports (goods and services) is 9.2%, which works out to just over a 1% hit to the US economy as a whole lost due to exports falling off in your scenario. While surely some of that loss is due to reduced production for exports caused by shuttered businesses, let's assume the total hit to the economy is the full 1%. So, in your hypothetical situation, the US economy loses 1%, but, since the US economy was growing by over 2% previously, it still grows, albeit at a slower pac
  14. and yet capitalism has lifted more people out of extreme poverty in the last 20 years than all the global social programs combined, while socialism has proven time and again to lead to starvation and tyranny the loss of rights and no socialist country in history has ever been a democracy. But, hey, you keep wrapping yourself in comfortable lies, while those who understand history know that in the 20th century the countries with capitalistic economies largely gave up their "imperialist expansion", while the National Socialists in Germany started a rather large war as it embarked on rapid imper
  15. CNN let us know that the lockdowns could result in 1.5 million more dying of TB. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/health/tuberculosis-deaths-lockdown-scli-intl/index.html and that more people may die of hunger as a result than of the disease itself https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326 and that 75,000 more are at risk due of suicide and overdoes due to lockdown-related strss. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-deaths-of-despair/index.html
  16. MIT is a respectable institution, but it is hardly "right wing". For instance, one of the authors of this essay is the left-leaning Tax Policy Center's Chairman, and a brief review of the other's affiliations and research interests also indicates he is left of center. Using these two to represent a "push from the right" is a bit like NPR using David Brooks as their "conservative" voice - he's only conservative compared to most people in New York City. You make it sound like there is something wrong with a competitive capitalist market creating both winners and losers. It creates more w
  17. At the moment, most of those jobs are just waiting for the governors to stop the self-inflicted madness and allow the businesses to reopen. Restaurants can bring back wait staff, "nonessential" retailers can bring back their people, factories can reopen, etc. The longer it drags on, the more small businesses will be destroyed, and the more time it will take for the damage to heal. Perhaps now that the CDC has suddenly realized surface transmission is not a significant risk and that 500 doctors have signed a letter that the lockdowns are likely to cause more health problems than the virus, we
  18. Actually, most Senators didn't realize that the additional unemployment benefits would result in many people making more on unemployment than working - depending on the state, the "break even" point is roughly $50-$55K (most states cap benefit in the low-$400's per week, add in $600/wk, multiply by 52 weeks/yr, that's what you get) - which works out to $25/hr. It's hardly unbelievable that most Senators were unaware of this (remember the whole "we have to pass the bill to see what's in it" from a few years ago?). This particular concern was raised just a few days before the vote, by one parti
  19. They were fully understanding...once a GOP Senator pointed it out the day before it was voted on. Prior to that, it's unlikely they understood it or, the GOP at least, would have attempted to change it during negotiations. Unemployment benefits are paid by the states, but with a hefty share of it coming from a federal tax called FUTA. The extra $600 are subject to additional federal eligibility rules. Considering how Congress has behaved for the last 25 years, you're being awfully generous to assume they understand how benefits are processed. I'm not even sure what your 3rd paragra
  20. This happened a lot in the old days. I'd come online to find people having SLex in my bed or on my "toys". So I'd get in voice (and also text) and start a running commentary while eating popcorn. One time the guy actually told me to get out of HIS house, and the girl believed it...until I started tossed the bed around. Apparently having a bed turned upside down and bounced like a basketball really kills the mood.
  21. Gosh, that Tolya is a smart fellow because, gosh, he can do math and relies on more than one source for information before he opens his yapper. As long as I've logged in to see why someone had tagged me (thanks, BTW) I'd like to share an anecdote for the folks who went on and on about how messed up the unemployment system is, how it doesn't pay workers, how hard it is to collect unemployment, how it's biased against the worker, I don't know anything, yadda yadda yadda. I recently got a notice that one of my employees had filed for unemployment after being laid off back in March. Hav
  22. Because nobody here has seen those posts or anybody here knows who the target is? Kinda a stretch.
  23. Rihjt now, my biggest pet peeve is this guy with the vendetta against Zak for zoophilia...
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