'Not'-cha or "I can't believe it's not Gacha" possibilities.

[Da5id Weatherwax]

7 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Want to beat the house at a casino? Go there to eat.*

 

*and take your chances with e.coli or Covid-19 ;-).

Or play a game you're good at and where the house's cut is built in only when you cash out. If all your gains at the table come from other players, and the house doesn't "have a seat" at the table (ie a dealer or croupier that you're playing against) you just figure in the (known)house percentage when you cash the chips when working out if you're up or down on the night.

Blackjack, the house has a seat, you're all playing against the dealer more than against each other. Poker or Bridge*, they don't. If I lose my table buy-in, that's to other players not to the house. If I gain on the night then all I have to worry about is the fixed "tax" on cashing the chips - so you only do it once just before you leave town. If you're coming back to play another table tomorrow, keep it as chips.

 

* I'm not a poker player, at any poker table I'd lose my shirt. I AM a competitive bridge player and "less competitive", shall we say, players of that game at moderate stakes tables in Vegas have contributed several grand over a few years to my collection of bad spending habits. I typically played tables with a 2-5 grand buy-in, with my regular partner who was a higher-ranked player than I in the competitive Bridge world ( I say "was" because by the time our partnership parted ways I was higher ranked than he, and still am). When playing together we just "clicked" and the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. I was accused of card-counting at a Blackjack table once and I answered that accusation by having the floor boss check which other tables I played "I'm a serious bridge player. I don't count but I can't NOT be aware of which cards in which suits I've already seen. You've got at least seven decks shuffled together at that table by the way, I've seen that many aces of hearts since the last shuffle. I play Blackjack for fun, not for profit" He said that provided I kept playing something each night but it wasn't Blackjack, the casino would comp my meal. I said "thanks very much, I'll take you up on that, you wont see me at a Blackjack table for the rest of my stay" I spent more time at the bridge table (when one was open to buy into) and when I figured in the comped meals it turned out to have been a VERY profitable week.

Edited August 18, 2021 by Da5id Weatherwax
fixing stupid typo

[Mollymews]

9 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

In theory, your theory is correct, but I don't imagine SL sellers are more mathematically savvy than the rest of us. Look how much time we've spent here, trying to work out the probabilities. What vendor is as curious (or screwy) as this lot?

In a sense,  gacha vendors are gambling too. Setting prices and selling mechanisms are gambles, based on hunch as much as market analysis. I think Da5id correctly gauges that the psychology of a sales method, which often involves misjudging probabilities, is usually more important than the actual probabilities, to both buyer and seller. Sellers have one advantage over buyers, they set the rules of the game. Are they savvy enough to predict, or do they just throw methods against the wall, see what sticks, and adjust accordingly? I know what I'd do.

The psychology can be so good that the game operator makes a profit even when the math works in the gamer's favor. Loss leader, anyone?

is true that game operators use inducements to get players to come into their establishments and play their games. The more money out into the games, then over the long run the actual return will closely match the expected return.  Return - inducement = profit

i think that game builders, do need to know what the expectation/probabilities are of the games they are building, and that if the builder gets distracted into modelling inducements into their games without knowing the game probabilities then it can result in a world of hurt for their customers, the game operators

in the policy thread an idea was floated: Release an opensource conveyor which screws with the game operators who don't know how to build a conveyor machine themselves

the response typically from builders was that this would not a good thing to do. That builders should be ethical, even tho they might disagree with the policy itself

that when a operator chooses to be unethical and screw with their own customers then the operator can't say that screwing their customers wasn't a deliberate wilful act on their own part, or as a consequence of the builder not knowing what they were doing

and I just say that I have posted the information that a ethical game operator needs to know. What the expected return is with a conveyor, how to price a fatpack, and how to price each item

a thing.  If as the operator you decide on bin = [1,5,94] (3 items) then this is ethical, even if the players think they can get a better opportunity for a similar product elsewhere. Or the players think this is a bit rich for their blood

what is not ethical is to represent to your customers that they are getting better odds on the pull price than they actually are

 

[Chic Aeon]

I haven't read any of this thread but the OP, so if someone has already mentioned this --

Those ideas or ones very close to them have been used in SL in the past -- mostly back in the hey day like ten years ago.  They were sort of popular but they didn't make anywhere NEAR the money that gachas have for many creators --- and PROFIT is what this is really all about from the creators viewpoint. 

 

Just wanted a bit of history in here for folks that weren't around/   

[Innula Zenovka]

21 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

In theory, your theory is correct, but I don't imagine SL sellers are more mathematically savvy than the rest of us. Look how much time we've spent here, trying to work out the probabilities. What vendor is as curious (or screwy) as this lot?

In a sense,  gacha vendors are gambling too. Setting prices and selling mechanisms are gambles, based on hunch as much as market analysis. I think Da5id correctly gauges that the psychology of a sales method, which often involves misjudging probabilities, is usually more important than the actual probabilities, to both buyer and seller. Sellers have one advantage over buyers, they set the rules of the game. Are they savvy enough to predict, or do they just throw methods against the wall, see what sticks, and adjust accordingly? I know what I'd do.

Oh, I agree that the psychology of the sales method is key to all this, but I think that before anyone can start applying psychological insights to nudge customers or gamblers into behaving in particular ways, they need to know what the baseline is before they start -- before I start throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks, I feel a lot more comfortable if I already have a good idea of how adhesive both the wall and my projectiles are in the first place before I can start to determine whether any changes in my throwing strategy are actually having much effect, good or bad. 

Chance and probabilities can't be bucked, or not for very long, and I think it's important to remember that even the most effective sales or gambling strategy is  going to do no more than tilt the odds somewhat, one way or the other.     So we need to know what would probably have happened anyway before we can decide how to try give the fates a helping hand (and hope they don't take offence, as they are so often reputed to do when mortals try to interfere in their affairs).

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Innula Zenovka

[Madelaine McMasters]

12 hours ago, Innula Zenovka said:

Oh, I agree that the psychology of the sales method is key to all this, but I think that before anyone can start applying psychological insights to nudge customers or gamblers into behaving in particular ways, they need to know what the baseline is before they start -- before I start throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks, I feel a lot more comfortable if I already have a good idea of how adhesive both the wall and my projectiles are in the first place before I can start to determine whether any changes in my throwing strategy are actually having much effect, good or bad. 

Chance and probabilities can't be bucked, or not for very long, and I think it's important to remember that even the most effective sales or gambling strategy is  going to do no more than tilt the odds somewhat, one way or the other.     So we need to know what would probably have happened anyway before we can decide how to try give the fates a helping hand (and hope they don't take offence, as they are so often reputed to do when mortals try to interfere in their affairs).

I don't know enough about gachas, how they actually operate or are advertised to really speak with any authority, but I've seen enough spaghetti on walls around here to suspect a lot of people are throwing it. Even selecting colors for clothing is a creator's gamble if no research is done. (Fatpacks can short circuit such research.)

Do gacha sellers write their own machines, or get them from someone else? I agree with @Mollymews contention that a machine designer would consider the statistical underpinnings of the machine's algorithm, but purchasers of said machines might know no more about the statistics than the typical customer.

Might you, Molly, and anyone participating in this thread be just a bit smarter than the average bear?*

 

 

*and is this an example of damning with faint praise?

Edited August 20, 2021 by Madelaine McMasters

[Mollymews]

7 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Do gacha sellers write their own machines, or get them from someone else? I agree with @Mollymews contention that a machine designer would consider the statistical underpinnings of the machine's algorithm, but purchasers of said machines might know no more about the statistics than the typical customer.

Might you, Molly, and anyone participating in this thread be just a bit smarter than the average bear.*

not sure about being smarter than the average bear. I am more probably less than the average bear.  The average bear just worries the rubbish bin to pieces til it pops open and then gobbles up the yummy bits they find

the average smart bear learns when to stop worrying the bin when they work that some bins just won't open no matter what they do. And go find another bin to worry open

some bears tho just don't know how to quit. Dang! bin, imma crush you, sneaky human who made this bin to be bear proof. I am gunna win even if I starve to death trying. I am that bear sometimes. Which is not a smart thing to do, is a lot smarter to go find another bin made by a less sneaky human

😸

is true too that quite a few people who operate games have no idea of the math and algorithms embedded in the game. They just know that if they operate the game according to the game rules then over the long run they will make X amount of profit

how the game gives them a profit they don't necessarily care, just that it does. Which is the general point being made in some posts on here. Chic for example has made this point. A point that is true

 

a personal anecdote about a bear worrying a bin to pieces, then learning from another bear how to open the bin really easy

there is a casino in my city

i used to go and play blackjack there. I played basic strategy and a simple running card counting method, using the card count to proportionate my bet sizes

the game rules were: 6-deck shoe. Dealer stands on hard 17. Blackjack pays 3 to 2. Push on evens. Player can split pairs 3 times and can doubledown on any two cards one time

simple card counting method. -1 for A,K,Q,J,10. 0 for 9-8-7, +1 for the other cards. Basis bet sizing strategy: when count is less than +4 then bet the minimum. When is +4 or more then bet 4 x minimum bet or more

with these rules and bet sizing strategy then the player has a 0.0023 probability in their favour. What some gamblers call the EV (Expected Variance)

i only used to play on the $5 tables as $5 was the minimum bet I could make in the casino playing blackjack. Just try to win about $100 and then go clubbing and spend it on shots like tequila and fluffy ducks. If I never won or lost then oh! well. I don't actually need to get totally wasted every time I go clubbing

so anyways, this one Friday evening I was playing, and the count was +18, and because I was up a little bit up, I decide to bet $30 and the magic hand came

dealer showing a 6. I get a pair of 8s. I split. $60. I get another 8. I split again. $90. I get a 2. I doubledown. $120. I get a 10 yay! On my next 8 I get a ace. Doubledown. $150. I get another 2. woohoo! On my third 8 I get a 3. o.m.g! I doubledown. Now have bet $180. And a 9 comes. I am already counting my loot! When I get my winnings I am going to up over $200 and I am out of here. yay!

on the dealer's turn everybody at the table goes: picture picture! at the dealer like you do because picture picture will bust them. Dealer turns a 7 for 13. We all go picture! Dealer turns a 3 for 16. We all go picture picture picture !!! Dealer turns a 5. A four card 21. And everybody at the table goes really !! really !!!  I lost $120 as I only get a push on one of them. All my hard earned winnings and a some of my own money gone down the drain in one hand

the pit boss (a big bear) who had been watching me play (me a little bear), looks at me all stoneface and goes: Isn't it unfortunate when that happens

i try to stoneface him back, but I crack up laughing looking at him and go: Yes it is. Some people at the table look at me quizzically because I just lost a lot of money for a $5 table and I am laughing. When I laughed the pit boss grins at me. Because he knows, and he knows that I know he knows

I met up with him some weeks later in a club, we just happen to be there at the same time, and he says that I am doing it all wrong for a Friday night. What I should do is clock the players and find a competent card counter beavering away. Then let them do all the hard work of counting. When they increase their bets then do the same

so I did it that way after that and was much more fun to play and a whole lot easier. Have quite a few drinkies, socialise and chat to the other players and shoving my chips in without a care in the world

altho sometimes a card counter would get all scowly at me as they knew what I was doing. They were doing all the hard work of opening the bin and I was eating the yummy bits that fell out  

One guy came up to after one time and said I should pay him a fee for doing all the hard work. I just smile and laugh and say I buy him a drink. He laughed as well and goes: that will do. I end up buying him two drinks as we had a quite good chat and he buy me two drinks as well, and then we had dinner together, so turned out pretty good

the thing is that card counters are really easy to spot when you know how card counting works. Is all about the bet sizing - nobody can hide how much they bet. Clock the count for a bit and watch for who is bet sizing proportionate to the count. If I, as a amateur blackjack player can spot a card counter, then so can the casino big bears who are professionals

but as the pit boss I met explained, the casino needs people to be seen to be winning, particularly on Friday and Saturday evenings because they are wanting to foster a party up vibe at these times. That people have in their wallets and purses, their party up money to spend at these times of the week. That people get happy and party up when they, or those beside them who they find to be sociably agreeable, are winning. When people are happy then they stay longer. Stay too long and pretty much end up giving all your party up money to the casino, but had a fun time doing it so all good

he also said that if I don't get greedy and stick to the $5 tables, the casino sees me as a unpaid shill for their business. Chatting away and socialising with the other players, being really happy for them when they win and being happy when I win. And not be a crybaby downer when in spite of the +EV, it goes against me as it sometimes did

then the casino changed to automated shuffling machines, where the dealt cards are put back into the shuffle machine after each hand. I stopped playing as the game went from +0.0023 EV to -0.0527 EV

automated shuffling machines deployed in this way, are a bear-proof bin as it obsoletes card counting as a strategy. So I suppose I was at least a smart enough bear to stop worrying that bin ever after

[Madelaine McMasters]

22 minutes ago, Mollymews said:

not sure about (me) being smarter than the average bear.

I am.

;-).