Why Tax Exchange is always rising?

[Rya Nitely]

I sold at 263 because I didn't understand what was happening. This market had nothing that you could work with to predict price movements. It still doesn't really, although it looks like it's settled.

During the recent market fluctuations caused by Brexit I traded gold shares and British bank shares. Here's a small example of my most recent trading activity. I'm not a full time day trader as I also have a normal job and I work in SL. But I am a trader. I make small amounts here and there, some losses as well, I don't always get it right. but overall it works for me. Some shares I keep long term.



[wherorangi]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

Someone or someones would have to accumulate and hold vast amounts of L$, then create a profitable spread by buying up those top levels, and then dump their load on the market. I don't think it makes financial sense. But maybe.

They'd need a level 4 trading limit, and LL would know who they are. So, it would be no mystery to LL what was happening.

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this assumes that the someone(s) are actively manipulating the market

what would make more sense is for someone(s) who already have a large regular L$ income(s) to now be passively influencing the market in the latter half of each month

whose tier date for a largish number of sims falls in the latter part of the month, and having also received upto 15% tier reduction, assuming that upto half of their sims were not previously grandfathered or atlassed

they are not stressing anymore about the 2% or 3% difference in the price they get for their L$ by passively selling in the latter half of the month, the shedloads of L$ they have earned, to pay their tiers 

they are not stressing anymore bc 3 off 15 still leaves them 12 better off than they were previous

a monthly passive selloff which triggers a pile on, instead of the managed selloff across the month that they previously did

who would do that ? Someone(s) who think that -2-3 is not worth devoting their time to anymore, given the +12 from spending no time on it at all

 

 

 

[wherorangi]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

Here's a small example of my most recent trading activity. I'm not a full time day trader as I also have a normal job and I work in SL. But I am a trader. I make small amounts here and there, some losses as well, I don't always get it right. but overall it works for me. Some shares I keep long term.

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thanks

can see that your exposure is quite well managed. That the number of open positions at any given time (assume what you showed is typical) means you are not reckless and not gambling the house on it. So thats good  (:

[Rya Nitely]

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wherorangi wrote:

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can see that your exposure is quite well managed. That the number of open positions at any given time (assume what you showed is typical) means you are not reckless and not gambling the house on it. So thats good  (:

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thank you for the reassurance :matte-motes-smile:

I joined CommSec in 1997 when it first offered a very basic online service. After my first trade there was no looking back. I traded those dot.com companies in the late 1990s early 2000. I took a bit of a hit when things went bad, but nothing compared to the staggering gains one could make back then. I sold almost everything before the 2007 financial crisis - very lucky, only because I invested in debentures (not the sharemarket) and got burnt when the financial company went bust. This made me super careful and so I pulled out of everything.

Most shares in my portfolio are long term investments. As well as being a trader, I think I can call myself a seasoned investor.

[Rya Nitely]

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wherorangi wrote:

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this assumes that the someone(s) are actively manipulating the market

what would make more sense is for someone(s) who already have a large regular L$ income(s) to now be passively influencing the market in the latter half of each month

whose tier date for a largish number of sims falls in the latter part of the month, and having also received upto 15% tier reduction, assuming that upto half of their sims were not previously grandfathered or atlassed

they are not stressing anymore about the 2% or 3% difference in the price they get for their L$ by passively selling in the latter half of the month, the shedloads of L$ they have earned, to pay their tiers 

they are not stressing anymore bc 3 off 15 still leaves them 12 better off than they were previous

a monthly passive selloff which triggers a pile on, instead of the managed selloff across the month that they previously did

who would do that ? Someone(s) who think that -2-3 is not worth devoting their time to anymore, given the +12 from spending no time on it at all

 

 

 

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could be, we'll see what happens going forward

I does look like it's calmed down for now.

[wherorangi]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

could be, we'll see what happens going forward

I does look like it's calmed down for now.

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yes. We see what happens in a couple of weeks time about

if it goes again the way it has the last couple of months then I think those like yourself and others, the merchants, can maybe get better outcomes for yourself by cashing earlier in the month when is less volatile, rather than later 

[wherorangi]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

... 1997 ...  I think I can call myself a seasoned investor.

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i can agree with that (:

 

 

[Rya Nitely]

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wherorangi wrote:

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Rya Nitely wrote:

could be, we'll see what happens going forward

I does look like it's calmed down for now.

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yes. We see what happens in a couple of weeks time about

if it goes again the way it has the last couple of months then I think those like yourself and others, the merchants, can maybe get better outcomes for yourself by cashing earlier in the month when is less volatile, rather than later 

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And also, if this big seller gets their huge volume out in one hit instead of spreading it through the month, like you said, then it would mean less supply for the rest of the month, and the market should correct itself.

[KarenMichelle Lane]

Well that was a fun week. I had to wait 6 days to get my Limit Sell fulfilled at L$256 / $1USD. The reason? Waiting for the demand to break the [+100m] cap to knock down the backlog of of L$257+ / $1USD sell orders. But I still, got the rate I wanted.

This is totally how the currency markets work. Those folks wanting their $USDs sooner than me are welcome to dump thier $Lindens.

Way more fun to play with currecny here and not in the Forex! 

Of course for regular folks who want an immediate fare [a subjective floating exchange rate in most cases these days] there is the frustration of  getting the spot exchange rate instead.

The LindeX is like budgeting in real life these days.

Plan your selling activities accordingly.

 

 

[Rya Nitely]

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KarenMichelle Lane wrote:

 

Way more fun to play with currecny here and not in the

Forex! 

 

 

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Ooh, someone who has experience trading currency in the Forex :smileysurprised:. Can you perhaps point me to a floating currency that stayed flat for 4 years?  Love to check it out. 

But seriously, I think wherorangi might have hit on something. Maybe some people are not selling their Lindens regularly through the month like before, but accumulating it and then selling in one hit in the later part of the month. The new process credit fee might have resulted in a change of habit. People are so used to going straight from sell to process credit, or they just don't realise that it isn't selling that incurs the fee but cashing out to Paypal. I know there was some confusion. But if this is the reason, and people are accumulating L$ to save in the process fee, then it's backfiring badly.

The only thing is, we do have a steady volume going through every month, so if there is a huge sell off now, then there should be less sell volume going through later. This should cause it to move back, not just a point or two, but closer to where it was.

[wherorangi]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

Maybe some people are not selling their Lindens regularly through the month like before, but accumulating it and then selling in one hit in the later part of the month. The new process credit fee might have resulted in a change of habit. People are so used to going straight from sell to process credit, or they just don't realise that it isn't

selling

that incurs the fee but cashing out to Paypal

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yes agree, this would be a quite a major influencer as well

if we take Ebbe Linden at his word (which I am inclined to do) that LL themselves are not doing anything other than what they normally do, which is maintain liquidity (Supply Linden putting back into circulation the L$ taken out thru sinks)

and rule out that there are someone(s) manipulating the Lindex on a grand scale. For sure there are no doubt some day traders who are contributing but I think they would be more a symptom rather than the root case

then the likely supposition is that the root cause is passive trading, and when so then blocking up, rather than a managed spread, would be the most likely major influencer of what we are seeing

 

[Rya Nitely]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

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wherorangi wrote:

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Rya Nitely wrote:

could be, we'll see what happens going forward

I does look like it's calmed down for now.

---

yes. We see what happens in a couple of weeks time about

if it goes again the way it has the last couple of months then I think those like yourself and others, the merchants, can maybe get better outcomes for yourself by cashing earlier in the month when is less volatile, rather than later 

---

And also, if this big seller gets their huge volume out in one hit instead of spreading it through the month, like you said, then it would mean less supply for the rest of the month, and the market should correct itself.

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Well, the rate looks like it's not correcting. So, again, the only theory that I can find no holes in is that LL increased the supply of L$ and that pushed the rate up. Even if LL says they didn't. It's the only theory that makes sense.

If this happens again in a couple of weeks, then it will take the rate up further and it will stay up, and so on and so on. This certainly would be fun for buyers, but why would sellers call it fun?

Edit to add:

In real world market forums (equity, currency, precious metals) if someone asked the question 'why is this rising?', and a person responded with 'because it's normal...it's supply and demand....that's the way markets behave', that person would very quickly be told off for trolling.

And now I'll go back to concentrating on trading shares in gold companies. Now that's fun, rewarding and no mysteries.

P.S. I know some people like to feel that they know everything about everything, but I'm not like that. This is one of a very few topics that I voice my views in.

[wherorangi]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

Well, the rate looks like it's 

not correcting

. So, again, the only theory that I can find no holes in is that LL increased the supply of L$ and that pushed the rate up. Even if LL says they didn't. It's the only theory that makes sense

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the only theory which can evidenced unequivocally is passive selling. Like I said way earlier: You yourself are evidence of this

[Qie Niangao]

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Rya Nitely wrote:

Well, the rate looks like it's 

not correcting

. So, again, the only theory that I can find no holes in is that LL increased the supply of L$ and that pushed the rate up. Even if LL says they didn't. It's the only theory that makes sense.

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While I think a gradual raise in the rate wouldn't matter over the long term, I don't think that's what's going on. Rather, I suspect the Lab has lost control of the market with simply too much selling for it to get sopped-up by sinks. (Yeah, I know: that's exactly equivalent to the "supply and demand" troll.)

Luckily, the volumes have been relatively small -- even this last burst, much bigger than previous months, peaked at less than twice normal volumes -- so if it's dumping it isn't panicked (yet?).

The question in my mind is whether the sinks have lost effectiveness (so the market just can't absorb the selling as well) or if there's just more selling by folks getting out of L$s now that we know the currency won't be used in Sansar. Or both.

If the sinks have lost effectiveness, that  might mean Marketplace selling is slowing overall. There certainly are other sinks, but my hunch is that Marketplace commissions will be biggest and first to fail when this all goes down.

[wherorangi]

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Qie Niangao wrote:

If the sinks have lost effectiveness, that  might mean Marketplace selling is slowing overall. There certainly are other sinks, but my hunch is that Marketplace commissions will be biggest and first to fail when this all goes down.

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would definitely be a worry if the sinks have lost effectiveness for the reasons you mention. Is really a serious worry,and I think cant be ruled out

[Pamela Galli]

Marketplace sales have not slowed down year on year for me.

And selling at these rates is costing me significant money, on top of the new processing fee.

[wherorangi]

the other way LL put L$ back into circulation is stipends

i think the equation for Supply Linden is (or should be dunno): Sinks - Stipends = Amount to resupply to maintain liquidity/equilibrium

if has been a recent uptick in new sign ons (dunno) then it maybe that the equation is now a bit whack. Again dunno just wondering. In other words BeanCounter Linden maybe has over-estimated the conversion rate of new signups to L$ buying customers (either thru Premium or direct purchase)

[Pamela Galli]

Over my head, but this annoying pattern keeps repeating:

Put in a sell order at the highest limit order showing, 256.

Wait a couple days, no sale.

check order, see that now there are 23 million at 257.

cancel order, start over at 257.

Repeat. 

[Naiman Broome]

Wow I dropped this thread a little time ago and I find 7 pages ... Thanks everyone for answering , I will take some time reading throught all comments ...