Deltango Vale

Thanks, Ceera, for the explanation. Basically, you are saying that the LL databases are a mess, poorly designed, currently a kludge. If so, then there is only one good solution. (Bear with me as I jump to what I was discussing with Rene inworld. Bear with me too as I shift from engineering to economic history.) In 1963, IBM was facing stiff competition. The company sat down and decided to rethink it's product from top to bottom. The decision was to make a US$5 billion investment (the same cost as the Manhattan Project to build the first atomic bomb) in a complete redesign of its computers. The result in 1965 was the IBM360 mainframe, which took IBM to the top of the industry (80% market share in 1980). A year later (1981), IBM failed utterly to repeat its performance. Bill Gates took Microsoft to the top of the industry. Similarly, Kodak once built a patent wall around itself so tight that only Edwin Land managed to get through it (Polaroid). Kodak invented the digital camera in 1975. Kodak filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy a month ago. It strikes me that Linden Lab (or another company buying Linden Lab) must redesign and rebuild its databases/systems. The company faces a choice: be IBM 1965 and create a dazzling virtual world or be Kodak 2012 and make paperclips.

Thanks for the clarification, which ties into what I said to Dee. Whenever LL says "new features", I cringe. It's not that I dislike new features - SL desperately needs new features - it's just that LL is the wrong company to attempt to add new features. At this point, simply fixing the name problem is all anyone should ask of LL. Seriously, if LL can fix the name problem without adding new problems, I will be extremely impressed.

Y'know, this is pretty cool stuff when one begins to understand the basics. I actually understand what you are saying about teleports in terms of what is happening in the guts of the servers (connecting the avatar key to new databases). I also understand what you mean by merging the first and last name 'fields'. (I double checked with my RLBF and he flipped out at the idea of merging the two fields). So it was not only a dumb idea conceptually, but it was a dumb idea in engineering terms. You are saying that LL now has to work like crazy to undo the damage it did to its own databases. Considering how much trouble LL got itself into, perhaps the best thing would be to simply fix the name fields and leave the rest for another time. LL should not try to do anything fancy because, quite frankly, the company always seems to screw up when it tries something new.

I was kinda thinking the same thing. There are about 2 million threads with perhaps 43 trillion posts on the problem of mononames. One presumes LL actually read some of them. The main problem, of course, is betty12345GGreea777 Resident. The real problem, though, is that Linden Lab thinks it is IBM designing a rocket engine instead of a company providing a social space for humans.

Thanks for the link. My RLBF used to design databases. Since I am not an engineer (and feel kinda bad about it), I asked him to sit down and patiently explain to me why it is so hard to have first and last names. He said, "It's a piece of cake." So, let me try to explain what he said (and forgive me if I screw up). All avatars have a 'key' (I guess our UID), a unique number that is our 'identifier'. No properly designed database in the world uses names for keys. A unique key is assigned when a 'record' is created in a database. The important thing to remember is that ALL records in ALL databases have a unique key. A record is a collection of 'fields' that contain information relating to a key. So, for example, there is a 'record' about me in the LL databases that says something like this: Avatar ID Key (123456abcdef552234128aaba), Firstname (Deltango), Lastname (Vale), Creation Date (2006.10.11), Payment Information (PIU), etc. Now (and I find this really cool), there are very special rules for linking things together. For example, my SLGF has her own 'record' in the SL database. When we partnered, a new record was created in another database where our two keys were entered as fields. The 'record' in the Partner database would look something like this: Partner Event ID key (a1b2c3d4e59999123456), Avatar ID Key A (123456abcdef552234128aaba), Avatar ID Key B (234567bcdefg762512992dede), Date (YYYY.MM.DD), Active (Y/N) So, all databases are constructed this way (at least conceptually). New 'fields' can be added easily. There is never a problem with linking data across an entire organization. The rules of construction guarantee that things (objects?) in one database are only ever connected to things in another database via 'Event' databases. An 'Event' database is a 'bridge' between the items in one database and another. Any number of such bridges can be constructed for any number of reasons. The original databases remain untouched. So, if I have understood all this correctly, there is no problem for Linden Lab to fix the last name problem. Use two name 'fields' (forename, surname) and a title 'field' (title) and whatever other components one might want (favorite color, whatever) linked to the avatar 'key'. For residents with two names, the problem is already solved. For residents with one name, allow them the option of choosing any last name, which would go into the surname 'field'. For new residents, let them choose any first name and any last name and any title. If a new resident does not want a last name then the default is Resident (the current default). To prevent duplicate names, simply check new names against a list of existing names. Whew. My first engineering answer in the fora Am I anywhere close to understanding the problem correctly?

So the idea is that one should open a new window, go to MSL, follow Rod, then open a new window and go to Twitter and follow Rod, then open a new window and go to Facebook and friend Rod (opps, that's not allowed on Facebook), then open a new window and go to SLU and check the blog, then open a new window and go to New World Notes and read the blog, then maybe google 'SL', 'Rod Linden', 'Linden Lab', 'Second Life' etc. and read the results. Sounds like a plan. The idea that the company might post updates about its own products on its own website on its own blog does seem rather silly. You wouldn't by any chance have a couple links to the nether regions of the internet where information on the last names issue might be located?

Since no one from LL has posted on the official blog for over a month, I presumed the company moved its offices to Bermuda, whereupon the staff got naked on the beach, drinking Margaritas as a large pig roasted over a driftwood fire. Are you suggestion that some employees were left behind in San Francisco to manage the servers? Rod posted from the 'feeds'. What feeds? MSNBC? The Drudge Report? New World Notes? Where exactly does the company release information these days? It certainly couldn't care less about the official SL Blog where, ah, residents go to get information from the company about Second Life.

I have long argued that the future is in virtual worlds. There are many reasons for this, but I'd like to mention one of them now: privacy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16810312 I don't use Facebook, not because I fear the company (though I don't want my personal info used for marketing), but because I don't want to be perpetually monitored by the government, the media, the lawyers and the whackadoodles. My solution is to keep my RL to myself. I don't have a RL Twitter account. I don't have a RL G+ account, I don't have a RL Facebook account. I have no interest in the entire universe knowing my every personal detail. Nor do I wish to end up in jail somewhere because a tweet was taken out of context by a mindless bureaucrat, a mentally ill neighbor or a hungry lawyer. I believe strongly that the age of RL net identities is coming to an end. I believe it is only a matter of time and a couple high-profile cases before people tone down their RL net identities and build up their VR avatar identities. Many people now have avatar identities they use for virtual worlds, games, blogs, Twitter accounts etc. I see this trend moving beyond a small core of smart people to the wider population. I also believe this trend plays well into the hand of Linden Lab, who have not yet grasped the concept of a parallel world of privacy. In the meantime, be careful what you tweet in RL, be careful what you say on your Facebook page. Big Brother and Little Sister are watching.

This is interesting because I too upgraded Phoenix about the same time as the problem started, but, from what I understand, it is an SL-wide problem.

Just a quick reminder that a problem remains with inworld delivery of notifications (and inventory items) while offline. People should check their email regularly until the problem is fixed.

Many people encounter a new and disorienting social reality when entering SL. They adjust the sliders, get some animations and, boom, sex goddess, rock star, fashion queen, but they have no RL experience of how to deal with people socially in their new, avatar body. That's why many girls take fright and many guys choke. It's one thing to cast a strong image; it's another thing to live up to it.

"By submitting an entry, entrant grants Linden Lab a perpetual, worldwide, royalty-free license to use his/her name, avatar, voice, and likeness, and any materials submitted by entrant to Linden Lab, in connection with this contest, and entrants waive any and all claims and/or rights to receive any royalties or other compensation for the Linden Lab's use thereof, unless prohibited by law. Winners may be required to complete, sign, notarize and return an affidavit of eligibility/liability release and a publicity release, which must be returned, properly executed, within five (5) days of issuance of prize notification." ------------------------------------------------------------- I had thought about entering until I saw this nonsense. Why is it that all human joy must be smothered in dandruff from grey, faceless lawyers?

Sheesh! Just drop it already, why don'tcha?? What are you, obsessed or something...?? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ That is precisely what everyone is saying about you. In a previous thread, I offered you a clear and helpful explanation of Marxism, which you promptly ignored. Instead of showing any interest in learning about the very philosophy you preach, you continue to spout nonsense, much to the annoyance of everyone on the forum.

"Your comparing apples to pairs and that's not logical." ------------------------------------------------- Actually, at the risk of introducing complexity instead of simplicity, the concept of relative price is precisely that. All prices are relative prices derived from an Indifference Curve. There is no such thing as a price in isolation. The price of an apple is determined relative to a pair or an orange etc. I do, though, understand what you are trying to say. The price of hosting has definitely fallen by 66%. In addition, Wordpress is free, Facebook is free, Twitter is free, etc.. More importantly, one must compare tier to a basket of technotainment goods and services through time. It boils down to this: what can US$300 buy me in 2012 versus 2006? 2006: a month of tier or an apple or an orange or a pair 2012: a month of tier or 3 apples or 3 oranges or 3 pairs or a banana or a pomegranate or a watermelon or a grapefruit or a plum As for the oversupply of mainland, it is not the amount of abandoned land that is the embarrassment, it is the tens of thousands of residents who bought mainland over the past five years who have seen their investment wiped out due to Linden Lab's sloppy management of the supply of mainland in addition to the rising relative price of tier. Does any company want tens of thousands of disgruntled customers spreading negative publicity by word of mouth? In all fairness, Linden Lab never understood Second Life. I believe Philip Rosedale had a glimmer of its potential, but he was pushed out by those with zero vision. Since 2007, Second Life has been a Faberge Egg in the hands of a 10-year-old child. Can Rod repair the damage? I don't know, but he needs to solve this tier problem and quickly.

I'll simplify: The basket of 'technotainment' goods and services available for US$300 is three times larger than it was in 2006. The basket contains 1) new goods and services that did not exist in 2006 (iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Nvidia 9-series graphics cards, WoW Burning Crusade, public Facebook, Twitter etc.) and 2) goods and services that did exist in 2006 (Nvidia 8-series graphic cards, Intel 6300 processors, hosting services etc.), which have fallen in price by at least 66%. A person with US$300 today can buy much more for his $300 than he could in 2006. Since the price of tier has not gone down in competition with that basket of technotainment goods and services, the relative price of tier (the price of tier relative to the competing basket of technotainment goods and services) has tripled - more than tripled, but I am being conservative. The reason why surplus mainland needs to be mopped up is because there is no natural mechanism for it to vanish. Only Linden Lab can remove mainland. Mainland is worthless today because the quantity is fixed while demand has fallen sharply (largely due to the tripling of the relative price of tier and five years of counterproductive strategies and policies). I have personally passed on several prime abandoned parcels because the land was not even worth the L$1 per m2 abandonment cost. You would have to pay me to own it - and I'm talking about prime, top-quality land. Even Zindra (small supply of XXX land) is at historic lows - almost valueless. Why is this a problem? Because tens of thousands of residents who own mainland have seen their purchase price wiped out. These are not happy customers. They are not saying nice things about Second Life. They are spreading the word to their friends that Second Life was a bad deal. They are blogging, texting and tweeting their unhappy experiences with land ownership in SL. They are moving to Opensim worlds, slowly, steadily. They are bad publicity for Linden Lab. Does LL need this bad publicity right now? Does LL want 'virtual land' to become a common phrase like 'watered stock' or 'the Brooklyn Bridge' or 'vaporware'? For a company whose revenues are dependent on selling virtual land, I'm not sure it's a great idea to allow tens of thousands of customers see their money go down the toilet. I don't think Linden Lab wants to end up as a synonym for companies that blew away their customer base through sheer incompetence.

"Compared to the available universe of consumer electronics, games, hosting services, entertainment and communications, the RELATIVE PRICE of tier has TRIPLED since 2006." ------------------------------------------------------------ What does this have to do with land? In 2007-2008, Linden Lab pumped out vast quantities of new mainland without any kind of land-management strategy. Never did the company consider the future. Never did the company consider the tens of thousands of residents who were 'investing' their money, time, enthusiasm, attitude, morale, word-of-mouth advertising and 'good will' when buying that land. As of today, anyone who bought mainland before 2011 has suffered massive losses. What message do you think they will spread out into the world via Facebook, iPhone and Twitter? What happens when new recruits meet the wall of residents marching out of SL with horror stories about land ownership in SL? I'll tell you what happens. Joe says to Fred, "Don't buy land in SL, the tier is outrageous. Buy land in an Opensim at a fraction of the price then play for free in SL." And this is exactly what people are doing. They keep their SL accounts for socializing, but they take their date to an island in another world. Yes, SLM has undermined commercial land to some extent, but nowhere near as much as the skyrocketing price of tier on top of a massive oversupply of land. How do we know there is an oversupply of land? Easy, economics 101. The quantity of estate land is variable. As demand falls, estate sims are abandoned and removed from the grid. The supply of mainland is fixed. It cannot be removed from the grid. Therefore as demand falls, the price collapses - which is precisely what happened. The quantity of estates has been falling for 18 months. The price of mainland has collapsed. Result: tens of thousands of unhappy residents. And Linden Lab reassures us that tier won't go up in 2012. Well, here is the story: in 2012, for the same price as a sim, former residents will be buying their own personal satellites in space - with onboard spa and tennis court - while watching free videos on Facebook while talking to their friends on Twitter while playing any number of free games while enjoying the life of kings for the same money they used to pay for tier on Second Life. That is the future unless Linden Lab cuts tier back down to 2006 levels.

Phil Deakins wrote: Alazarin Mondrian wrote: Something needs to be done to mop up the surplus and abandoned acreage on the mainland. Why? It's a serious question. Short answer: because the relavive price of tier has tripled since 2006. Long answer: In September 2006, Facebook, a cleverly designed bulletin board for ivy-league university students, allowed anyone over the age of 13 to register for an account. In November 2006, Nvidia launched its GeForce Series 8 graphics cards. Also in November, Sony released PlayStation 3; Nintendo released the Wii. The iPhone had not even been announced; it would not be released until June 2007. The first Kindle would not be released until November 2007 (costing US400). The new 2011 Kindle First (a vastly superior product) costs US$200. And what about Second Life tier? It has stayed the same for five years. Basically, the performance/price ratio of most consumer electronics products and services has tripled over the past five years. Has the performance/price of Second Life tripled over the past five years? Definitely not. Thus, the RELATIVE PRICE of tier has tripled. For those who wish to split hairs, yes, there have been some technical improvements in SL, but there have also been some disastrous strategy and policy failures. The two balance out. While technically better, SL is socially worse. Therefore, overall, in general, on average, everything taken together, SL has not improved since 2006. Short answer rephrased: Compared to the available universe of consumer electronics, games, hosting services, entertainment and communications, the RELATIVE PRICE of tier has TRIPLED since 2006.

"For landowners, existing land tier pricing will not go up in 2012." ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Tier price will not go up? Dude (I have always wanted to use that expression), tier needs to go DOWN and FAST! The mainland is dead, dead, dead. People are abandoning all over the place. Hell, I will be abandoning soon. Estate land has been declining for 18 months. Tier won't go up? Gods, it should have come down a year ago. http://deltango.wordpress.com/2010/10/26/a-proposed-land-tier-fee-schedule/ ------------------------------- "In addition, our service and quality focus in 2012 also means that we will be delivering features and policies that we believe will significantly assist merchants and landowners in running a business more profitably." -------------------------------- New policies? This scares me to death. We have had nearly five years of policy failure. Please tell us that your new policies are sane. http://deltango.wordpress.com/2010/06/24/a-strategic-assessment-of-second-life-part-2/ I have been is SL for five years! I have held on in the HOPE that somehow Second Life could be rescued from the chaos of the past four years. Having worked like a dog, daily, for the past five years, I can tell you that Second Life has cost me a fortune. I am so frustrated, I want to pull my hair out. Time and time again, Linden Lab has created massive disincentives for devoted, hard-working residents. I am practically the last of my year (2006). All my friends have left. I am the last holdout - and I am so close to quitting, it's not funny. why on earth keep tier so high when it's the number one reason for abandonment? what will you do about the VAT problem that has crippled SL? what will you do about the huge legacy oversupply of mainland? how will you stem the decline in estates? what policies, on what issues? Rod, give us a clearly-formulated strategy. Give us concrete examples. Tell us precisely what you are going to do. For the love of God, give us something solid. I apologize for seeming harsh, but you must understand the misery residents have been through for the past five years. All we ever got from Linden Lab in the past was baby talk, platitudes and, quite frankly, contempt. We are smart people! Treat us like adults! There is more brainpower among residents than McKinsey could ever dream of. You want to retain new residents? What about keeping the old ones?

Update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16241581

Update: Linkedin is currently worth $7 billion. Based on this, Twitter would be worth $3.5 billion. Linden Lab would be worth between $1 and $2 billion. When I wrote the OP back in May, the idea was for LL to buy Twitter. Now, it would appear that Twitter is in a better position to buy Linden Lab. Personally, for reasons previously mentioned, I think the companies should be merged into a new private limited company (perhaps called Altair, keeping the brand names Second Life and Twitter).

Re: http://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2011/04/linden-lab-financial-analysis.html -------------------------------------------- FYI, a company's valuation is derived from forward earnings. A crude, historical average is 14x. Thus Twitter, with forward earnings of $150,000 would be valued at $2 billion. Linkedin has a current value of $7 billion (28x revenues of $250 million). A more realistic valuation for Twitter is 25x, giving $3.7 billion. With current revenues of $75 million (conservative estimate) and a low growth multiple of 14x, Linden Lab is worth $1 billion. If LL could show any signs of growth, getting back to revenues of $100 million, the multiple would jump to 25x, giving a valuation of $2.5 billion. In other words, Linden Lab today is probably worth $1 billion. With some positive growth, it could jump to $2 billion. With solid growth, it could join Twitter at $4 billion. See the leverage? That is why SL still has the potential to be a big winner. That's why the stakes are high for the new management. It's all there for the taking if only LL would wake up!

Logging into the main webpage, I got a surprise. The original slogan for Second Life is back. There is also an elegant ad for the new Linden Realms game. Having tried the game, I'm impressed. It does what it says on the box: simple, fun, addictive, engaging. I can easily see it hooking new residents. Sure, there is much yet to be done to get Second Life back on track, but, for the first time in years, I believe Linden Lab is showing signs of not only life, but of intelligence. The days of Jack Linden are behind us. The old guard is gone. I'm get the feeling that new blood is starting to flow.

Well, due to massive oversupply and the high relative price of tier, 99% of mainland is now a worthless junk heap. Almost every entrepreneur I have know over five years has left SL in disgust. Even the griefers have left, bored out of their minds. Linden Lab never understood Second Life. It lacked the vision and intelligence to convert a killer app into a prosperous, international virtual country. I can describe the experience as sitting in a car, watching a $100 bill stuck to a guy's shoe. He doesn't see it. He continues walking, flap, flap, flap as the bill slaps against the ground. I roll down my window and shout to him to look down and see it, but he only stares at me, baffled, then walks away, the $100 bill getting dirtier and more ragged with each step. That, sadly, seems to be the story of Second Life since 2007. Can the new management at Linden Lab turn things around? I don't know. I have waited four long years for the company to get its act together. Yes, there have been some improvements: much greater stability SL Marketplace was a godsend, a rare act of brilliance the SL Fora have been completely redesigned, making them functional after years of neglect the V2 disaster seems to be nearly over the age-verification fiasco is over Windlight is very good there is an attempt to improve 3D graphics content ('mesh') But these are mostly fixes to problems that should never have arrisen in the first place. The real issues of vision and strategy remain opaque. Second Life is adrift, rudderless, in a vast ocean of banality. The best guess at the moment is that management wants to convert SL into some kind of game. We rarely hear from the new CEO. No one knows where he plans to take SL. We are surrounded by fog, listening to the water lapping gently against the side, no map, no compass, no wind, no sun. It's depressing.

"I like Jumpy." -------------------------- Me too - and I think his badge is killer cool. I always fall in love with bad boys.

Because 24 is two dozen baguettes in a bakery.