Bittersweet Lime

I think the idea behind creating tools to make game-like environments is, to convert SL into a platform which could attract game developers - a bit like facebook provides a platform for them as well. IMO this is an idea, which (1) comes far too late and (2) would require a platform with better performance and (3) would require a platform, which is capable to host a much higher concurrency, because if you have a bunch of game-like envirionments around, you need a critical mass for each of these games, to be attractive to players. SL is not providing these and so this idea will IMO be a dead born baby, when it will finally be implemented.

The 40 million are actually given in the article of LL, where this topic is about - so I assumed this to be known. Shouldn't it be known, before even starting to argue about it?

I don't want to split hairs, Josh, but languages are different and in german there is no difference, because we assume that people think about what is said and put it into the right context, which I provided as well. I spoke of possibly 200,000 new users, what is 40 million * 0.1 * 0.05 - can it be any clearer?- I don't see, that anyone thinking about it, could get it wrong. I do not agree with your view of the current situation. SL is not in stagnation, it is in continuing decline, so much, that LL stopped reporting the numbers. Why would they have to, if it would just stagnate?- No, it does not stagnate, it shrinks and if it continues shrinking, the chances get higher, that the critical mass of users is no longer maintained and SL might collapse - this could happen as fast as the hype was created by the same mechanism in 2006/2007.

This is my impression as well, Wade. LL knows that the SL boat will just stay afloat for a little while longer and so they rush to create other sources of income, while trying to shovel in new residents from every source possible, to keep the SL boat afloat long enough, to have a good base income from their new products. I would be more than happy, if LL would prove me wrong, but I doubt i will be.

I would not call a more than 50% decline in L$ spent since 2008 "stagnation", tt is a massive decline (for those who do not remember those times or were not in SL yet, about 2.1 million US$ were spent daily in SL). In a socializer world like SL, this is very bad, because there is a positive feedback loop with socializers. More socializers coming in attract more socializers to come in, more socializers leaving make more socializers quit. This positive feedback loop created the hype in 2006/2007. But this positive feedback loop can easily kill a socializer world as well. SL is not in stagnation, it is near the critical mass, which still keeps it alive. Look around in SL - it seems to be mostly empty. That is the iimpression a new resident might get quickly. And the "hot spots" have like how many people each?- 20-25-30?- So the destination guide with "hot spots" just adds to the impression, that SL is an empty world. Or did you look at the "showcase" sims?- You go there and no one around. How does this look like to a new resident?- It looks like a dead world, which is long past it's glory days. SL needs far more than a "threshold margin of growth" or it will continue to decrease until it hits the point, where LL will decide that it is not worth the hassle anymore.

Oh come on - "of those" or "of them", this means exactly the same to me, I am not a native english speaker and in german there is no difference between both. I have even pre-computed it and said it is 0.5% of steam users - that is 0.1*0.05 = 0.5%, how hard to get is this?

This is one of the best posts addressing the issues, I have seen thusfar - my kudos to you, Czari.

Well, put Darrius. I agree with that. It is hard to get new users to sign up AND stay, if the whole point of SL is not getting through to them. And those who come now are not the early adopter type, which is likely to deal with short-comings and make the best out of it. What comes now, are more and more the consumer type with a high expectation to service quality. And this is just not given right from the very start. They might find it later, in the high quality themed sims and the fabulous fashion and creations in SL - those are amazing, no doubt - but a new user must first get a chance to find those. But what does he get when he comes in?- An unfinished body, which looks awful compared to any other modern MMO and he might just think "well, this is crap" and leave right away to never give it a second try and tell everywhere when asked about SL "well, I tried it and did not like it". The first user experience is bad with an even more worse default client.

My personal estimation of the active permanent average user base of SL is 1.5 million residents, where 2/3 of them pretty much never participate in the economy and most of the rest pay for the whole show. That is why I think, that if steam would bring in 200,000 new residents, who would stay, this would just make for about 60-70,000 new residents, who at least participate in the economy. But this does not mean that those are all shopaholics. So I guess, the impact of steam will be low and in the range of maybe 10% more L$ spent. Edit: And this I base on a sign up of 4 million new residents through steam - so the impact will not be high.

Hm, I guess that is because I have mainly contact to gamers, who are active in MMO forums and there it is well known, even like you pointed out, most do not get what SL is all about. IMO the whole way new residents make their first experience in SL is wrong and makes them not even try to leave welcome island but quit right out from there.

Josh, you misinterpreted my numbers - I said if 10% try it out and 5% OF THEM stay - this mean 0.5% of the steam users, so my estimation is even more conservative than yours.

Ok, now I got your point. I misinterpreted it at first. I have myself an inventory, wihich I had to reduce by 40,000 items lately, because the time it took, to open it the first time, started to take ages. Alone my outfits would last for 25+ years, if I would change 3 times a day and never wear something twice, I have not even tried most of them and then there is this huge folder "stuff to unpack", where I throw in those items, which I cannot immediately unpack, where I buy it. I am not likely to ever unpack those, I just bought them to have them "just in case". But when I actually need something, I rather buy it newly before I even bother to search in my unmanageable inventory. :smileyhappy:

Is there a statistic somewhere, how many mesh viewers are actually in use in SL?- Me, for example, I am not using a mesh viewer by many reasons, one of them is performance and another one is, that sculpties do the trick already with a lower performance impact. I tried mesh viewers and none of them could convince me to use them.

Ok, but all of SL is paid by those who actually transfer money from their real life account to SL - so a huge amount of people are actually doing that or SL would no longer be existant.

To list it under "creative tools" will attract content creators, but not consumers. We need more consumers, who are likely to spend money. Seen from LL's point of view, content creators are nice, because they might buy a sim for their main shops, but what we really need are more consumers willing to spend money.