The January slump has certainly arrived, but I suspect it will be harder than ever for many. Consumers expect fat packs, HUDs, and more quality of life features at lower price points in the 300-700 range instead of the historical thousands. Few buy single colors for over 200 anymore it seems.
From what I hear from others: Friends of mine who do not have a healthy existing stock of seasonal and holiday items have reported poor sales throughout the late 2021 year. All of those who were reliant on gacha events monthly seem to be scrambling in a race to the bottom, saturated markets are combining with volatile pricing. Unfortunately customers seem to be perpetuating this vicious cycle by demanding ever more for less, and they've always been demanding. We are turning into a Walmart economy.
Several major event owners jacked up prices during covid, with one major sales event rising from 1500/round to 3500/round + new 7500/round sponsor spots + more merchants participating at one time than ever. I realize the owner has lost her job, but in the post covid slump merchants are seeing, I think it wears greedy. This isn't isolated, there are an endless deluge of discount day events and other highly demanding events popping up left and right - new items at minimal prices, new free gifts. Lots of money to the organizer. Even if they are well advertized on Seraphim, I know most of my {living off SL income} friends and myself are dropping out of events because they're barely profitable. If you pay commission for rigging, scripting, texturing, or mesh outsourcing it is nearly impossible to make a profit at so many events. There is just too many people trying to milk the event cow.
In the aftermath of gacha; with the dreadful state of search, marketplace, and the covid economy... I just don't see a way to recover. This isn't the SL boom where you could charge 1500 for a dress like we had in 2009 as your numbers mentioned, this boom is born of a pandemic where people feel poorer than ever. I don't see how the can be a recovery betwixt real life inflation issues, depreciating returns in Second Life, and the precarious future for the economy of both.
Merchants who adapt and sell cheap fat packs, keep their stock on marketplace, build a healthy customer base, gift generously, and diversify with consistent releases will be fine for awhile. Those still asking for 300-500/single color are going to get squeezed out. I hope the grubby event owners follow.
As for myself, I do find the new release loss leader isn't as bad as it might appear. It builds integrity, if it's already used as an event item, they often do not allow repeats so customers feel pressured to buy it now & know this is as good as it gets for awhile. It also puts your item and store into a high visibility position quickly, so more people are likely to see or hear of it and buy it in the future. You do need to keep strong statistics to see this trend over the years, however. Gacha void is real, but as I have a diverse seasonal oriented and generic portfolio I did not feel a pinch through the holidays like many merchants I am close with.
At the end of the day, you want to find what makes you immediately buy without thinking and replicate that price point and offerings in your own store... while carefully not shooting yourself in the foot. Oftentimes I find my merchant "co-workers" price themselves out of the market because they cannot see that a high quantity of sales at a marginally lower price is far more lucrative than a few higher. You may not feel as if it makes economic sense for your time, but if you're not selling any or many... Reevaluate. I have many items which sell dozens per week each; I can guarantee they wouldn't if priced 50% more.