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Doomed Secondlife


garey Solo
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I think that Second life should have offered to rent cheap small apartments to the tean/kids and market cheap but trendy like ahundred other onlilne game sites. But have limited pose scripts and let them have fun just like before, but they need cheap shooting adventure games that they can be part of as well.

 

Unlike adults they need to have some direction in gaming and that means things like wizard 101 and its like gets thousands of kids coming and they get addicted to the next level and pay to get there.

 

We on the other hand adults need things like RPG and better creating tools so they can make their fantasies and dreams come to life. Sadly as a new adult resident of 2nd life I have been disappointed and entranced at the same time. I am an expereince RPG player but can't seem to find any games that will allow new players in I have found them to cliquish and sad. So I still trive to find an RPG niche out their and I am still hopeful.

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garey Solo wrote:

I  post as my alt. I have been in sl 5 yrs now and own one of the largest design companies. I have watched the steady decline in sales & custom and also numerous first class creators leaving. Mesh will not keep existing creators here when there's no money to be made. They don't want to send their time again learning how to create mesh objects. I understand that LL need to improve & update.
But they need to advertise not upgrade
!
I would urge all creators to stress this to LL asap. Otherwise Secondlife will soon become a pleasant memory to us all.

There in a nutshell is your problem....something the Linden Lab has never really done, whilst other 3D VW MMOG and MMORPG games have done and grew during a recessionary period. No growth in SL for 3 years...in fact a slow but very gradual decline over the last 18 mths.

I have already Tweeted Rodvik about it!  i.e what are his plans to grow Secondlife whilst rival 3D platforms have successfully managed to do so?  No reply as yet! lol

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Chelsea Malibu wrote:

So, I guess the OP is less a question and more a statement of your belief which, though I understand the feeling, I don;t completely agree with.

Trust me, I too have seen the decline as I was the builder for SexGen and I have been in much longer than 5 years since this actually my second account.  I made over 100k a year in SL from my enterprises and yes, I barely can pay tier now but I have been in business long enough to know, there are edbs and tides.  Sometimes businesses go under but a good idea never ends, 
I think SL is a good idea and even if SL did go, I believe it would be replaced with something else.

 

I'm kind of believeing that's the way it end up.....or maybe another Company might buy it and re-vamp it.

The ideas that LL initally pioneered were very good....but they could not capitalise on it's early successes.. I think Second Life could have ended up  being much bigger than what it has become.....and even Scaling issues, there are work around solutions..

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Ceka Cianci wrote:

i feel if creators (and i don't mean all of them) were worried about in world numbers and SL survival that they would not have jumped on the market place selling almost their whole stockthat is in their in world stores already..wouldn't a smarter move if in world support was the real concern to just put up demos or samples of products to enhance their in world sales?

There's 2 million products listed on Marketplace.....and less than 1/2 Million Avatars that are login repeats and spend 1 Linden dollar upwards per month......do the maths!

Too many mouths too feed. ......oh and I forgot to mention the 1000's of sims In-World that house commercial activities for which they pay Land Tiers/ Rent

Hmmh.....something has to give. You notice the number of Private Estate sims that were handed back to LL during 2011? How much of Mainland is empty or for sale? 40% or more?

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Sy Beck wrote:


Randall Ahren wrote:

 I don't understand what they hope to accomplish by copying the wall feature from Facebook. Is that just a desperation move from a company that believes it has painted itself into a financial corner and cannot see a way out?

 

I think you need to turn it around slightly.  From what I understand about the popularity of Facebook are the endless little addon MMO games it now features.  This whole genre of social networks is now branching out to encompass anything that can be used on the platform.  Therefore, LL is coming at it from the other end of the spectrum as it were to entice those who like a little MMO gaming/VW with some social interaction and tempt them into SL.

Ackk....Facebookers...who have the attention span of a door mouse!

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If Lindens keep pushing for sl to be things that it is not, it will only get worse. SL is poor facebook style social network. SL is not the right platform for people who want a rl chatroom. SL is not technically appealing to pure "gamers."

What SL has always been best at is being a virtual world in which people can immerse, create, and interact, leaving behind just a little of their rl when they do. As it moves away from this, either because the teirs are too high to allow free creation of the resident's fantasy world and its components, or because of the promotion of less immersive uses of sl have changed the "atmosphere," or because of technical barriers, it will founder.

I agree that the answer is advertising, not upgrading. SL should be advertised as what it IS, not as something that can fit ever niche for everyone. That advertising should be aimed inworld as well as out. People won't spend high tiers for a spot in a chat room. People won't spend L$1600 for virtual shoes if they are just here to look for gems. They will spend (both time and money) to feel that magic that brought us here but which is more and more elusive in today's SL.

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There's no single solitary reason for SL's decline, unless you count mismanagement.

 First you have the lack of focus. What is SL? What does LL want SL to be? You can't market or develop a product until you have some idea of what it is you're trying to make.  From 2002 to 2010 SL suffered an identity crisis. Virtual workspaces? 3D Facebook? Interactive marketing space?

Coupled with that, LL failed to develop SL to meet the needs of any of their past or present goals. It lacked immersion, the presentation was crap, a sim cannot reasonably support more than a handful of avatars at a time, and the social tools would have been considered lacking in 1997.

 

 Speaking on presentation and marketing, LL seems to go out of their way to sabotage SL's image. The starter avatars are deformed. There's no cohesive sense of scale. The camera seems designed to separate the user as much as possible from their in-world experience. The new user experience completely fails to give a new user any real information. There are no tools to allow us, as content creators, to create truly interactive environments. In short, SL is a mess. The people who are here can, by and large, overlook these flaws, but it has drastically impacted SL's ability to draw in a larger audience.


Ceka Cianci wrote:

their problem is tier..at some point they are going to need to lower it..lowering things around it haven't worked..

a lot of good things have left the grid because of the cost of tier..each time one of those things leaves..it shortens the life span of a users life that may have been affected by it in some way..

 

One cannot talk about tier without pointing out SL's inexcusable scale issues. Because of a combination of 7' tall avatars and a camera that sits about 2m above the avatar's head, people are forced to make absurdly  large environments.

A simple house has to be about double scale to accomodate these factors. Does anyone ever consider what that means for land use? Here's a simple excersize. Take a 10x10m prim and double it in size. Now, how many 10x10m prims fit inside that 20x20m prim?

 For those of you who aren't so good with the maths, the answer is four. Given that land area is a static size, it costs you four times as much to build at double scale. Yet people do it all the time. People who own land are paying what they can and wish they had more, so LL wouldn't lose any tier by encouraging better use of scale. By allowing things to continue as they are, however, they have lost 12 year's worth of tier from people who dismiss the idea of owning land altogether, because they don't believe they could do anything worthwhile within the limits they are willing and able to pay.

 They've also lost tier from people who abandoned their builds altogether because they felt unable to achieve a reasonable amount of content while scaling back their costs.

 

 LL has also failed to address the problem of limited resources. 

 People complain about lag, poor framerates and a lack of prims per sim, demanding LL to fix these things.

 Sorry to break it to people, but LL literally cannot. The problem isn't SL, the problem is the way we use it. If we insist on using 100MB of script memory in our 200prim attachments, using multiple 1024x1024 textures where a single 256x256 texture would work just as well then SL will continue having these problems indefinitely and there's nothing LL can possibly do to change that. 

 What LL can do is encourage and guide people towards creating more efficient content. Charge more for uploading larger textures and have the size and nujmber of textures affect land impact. Limit the amount of script memory people can use in an avatar. Have professional level content creators build efficient, well made creations for Linden owned builds and Library items to show, leading by example, how to make the most efficient use of prims, textures, space and scripts. Provide building/scripting tutorials aimed at multiple skill levels in every sandbox. Provide smaller avatars to new users and better camera placement in the SL Viewer.

 

 

 I'm sure this is tl;dr for many, but the sad fact is that it's only the ti pof the iceburg. Rodvik has been making some great strides in his first year, but there's a mountain of problems LL needs to overcome if it wants to ever succeed.

 

 On the up side, with all the doom and gloom talk, there's very little chance of LL pulling the plug on SL any time soon, despite it's limited success. As long as SL has a core audience of paying users (not just tier or premium paying, but basic users spending money on the marketplace) LL still collects a paycheque and will keep the lights on.

 Just look at another "failed" service provider, AOL. Despite a spectacular failure it's still around. It's kind of a laughing stock and not really relevant anymore, but it's still there. That's the face of failure for a service provider like SL, and it's pretty much where we are right now.

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Of course he's working on BIG ways to promote sl growth - didnt you get your freebie yacht ( or is that feeble yacht) or your free Lindens home ( you know the one) stuck on a miniscule plot surrounded by a mass of clone houses ??? Well admittedly I couldn't get the yacht ( the freebie booth never seemed accessible) and I've got enough homes acquired over my four years in sl to fill a housing estate.. personally I think Rodvik has more strings jerking him than pinochio and doing anything which would really boost sl isn't even being considered by the pocket linings of the puppet masters whoever they may be....

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Phil Deakins wrote:

They'd certainly get a lot of flack from all landowners, and especially those who paid for one or more whole sims. But even more than that, they would kill the rental business at a stroke, which would mean most of the private islands being handed back, which in turn would mean a loss of most of LL's tier income. In other words, the SL sky really would fall.

They cannot afford to p!ss off the large Estate Barons......if the 2 biggest Estates were to close shop tomorrow, 15 -16% of all Estate sims would be handed back to LL. Whatever profitability LL might have had....would be more or less wiped out and might even put the Company into the "Red"

1200 Estate sims have gone in 1 year (9 jan 2011 - 15th Jan 2012)....i made a conservative estimate of $3 million USD from their bottom line this year. We don't have figures fr the Mainland abandonment in that year, other than 43% of Mainland is under LL control.

Hence Rodvik's announcement to diversify into non-related Second Life products.....as that current business model is quite fragile when relying mainly on Land/ Sim Tier income.

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Marcus Hancroft wrote:


Sy Beck wrote:

I find it a delicious irony that in an internet age where irl people shop more and more online that in SL, a prime example of living a life online, people are requesting that others travel to shops inworld rather than do the SL equivalent of shopping online via MP.

P.S.  I agree with them though.  :smileywink:

As I go around SL (I prefer shopping inworld), I find stores I used to shop at a lot have disappeared, malls close down and I miss them all.  I might use the Marketplace to search for an item, but I go to the sellers inworld store to purchase (if they have an inworld store).  I see it over and over.  Inworld stores shutting down because more and more people only use the Marketplace (where the merchant incurs a fee) and the merchants can no longer afford the rental cost of their property. 

So, yes, I would prefer that customers shop at the inworld stores so that the inworld merchant business doesn't disappear completely.  That would be a sad sad day when there are no more stores to go shop at inside Second Life. 

I remember shopping in a great store called Prim Goddess.  It was a massive store with fantastic artwork & furniture!  They even had an overhead tram system set up that one could get in and ride to the different departments.  I used go there a LOT.  Not anymore though.  It is gone.  Warehouse Plaza is gone, and so many others. 

At the bottom of it all, I don't want to see the inworld store business going away.  If we encourage all people to just shop the Marketplace, that's exactly what will happen. 

Amen to the above....you could be my Twin! :matte-motes-wink-tongue:

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Pussycat Catnap wrote:

So gridsurvey is smoking something?

;)

Concurrency there has been nearly constant since 2009 when it started tracking.

You have that totally wrong, or you are looking at the wrong graphs and mis-interpretating the data.

The most important graph for concurrency is "Average Logins during a 24-hr period".......it averages out all the peaks & throughs during the day cycle. SL has been undergoing a very slow...but steady decline over the last 24 months.

Look at the 3rd graph which covers Jan 2010 to Jan 2012.  In that particualr graph, the peak was around Feb-Mar 2010 at around 56k average.......now it's around 46/ 47 k. Wade was correct when he said it dropped around 10k...he might have been referring to "Peak Logins".....but it's also more or less the same for the more important "Average daily logins" data.....likewise with Phil's analysis on "troughs" which also shows a 10k decline.

 

SL Concurrency.png

 

 

 

 

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Phil Deakins wrote:

I would think that a Task & Reward scheme would go down well enough, but quite what sort of tasks they could be

if was me then i would not give a free library. u only get the avatar u pick off the webpage when u sign up. then u have to do tasks that make u learn the UI. when u complete the task a then u get a library folder. like when u open the My Appearance then u get some outfits. if u open the Build then u get some textures.  if u learn how to fly then u get a vehicle. stuff like that

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16 wrote:


Phil Deakins wrote:

I would think that a Task & Reward scheme would go down well enough, but quite what sort of tasks they could be

if was me then i would not give a free library. u only get the avatar u pick off the webpage when u sign up. then u have to do tasks that make u learn the UI. when u complete the task a then u get a library folder. like when u open the My Appearance then u get some outfits. if u open the Build then u get some textures.  if u learn how to fly then u get a vehicle. stuff like that

then 3 years later we have reached the prim flexi hair stage? hehehehehe

kidding hehehe

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16 wrote:


Phil Deakins wrote:

I would think that a Task & Reward scheme would go down well enough, but quite what sort of tasks they could be

if was me then i would not give a free library. u only get the avatar u pick off the webpage when u sign up. then u have to do tasks that make u learn the UI. when u complete the task a then u get a library folder. like when u open the My Appearance then u get some outfits. if u open the Build then u get some textures.  if u learn how to fly then u get a vehicle. stuff like that

They read my post and came up with Realms. I should be getting commission, shouldn't I? :)

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Realms was one of the better ideas Linden Lab implemented....and I'm really happy about that!

Some time during 2010 i wrote a couple of posts requesting LL should create a few mini -continents to make it far more interesting for new residents......it was around the time M.Linden was proposing a 70-sim continent for the Arts. (He got fired shortly afterwards)

So along with the Art Continent .......i suggested a continent for immersive Gaming (not only for Newbies, but General public could also use).....and another mini-Continent to be a museum of SL best (ex) Sims.....to include the likes of Greenies, Lost Gardens of Apollo, Twin Cities of Romenna, Nemo Trilogy sims etc etc....but without any commerical activities whatsoever.

The goal was to hopefully improve SL retention rates....and that these Continents would be included on the Official Newbie tour once they've learnt the basic controls of their Viewer......as opposed to releasing them onto the main Grid or those awful griefing Welcome Areas. I think by seeing the very best of Second Life.....one is more incline to stay or at least give it a fair try-out.

I know ...I know.....I'm ahead of my time!   LL know where to reach me!  :matte-motes-wink-tongue:

 

 

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Phil Deakins wrote:


Rene Erlanger wrote:

 .......i suggested a continent for immersive Gaming (not only for Newbies, but General public could also use) 

Stuff and nonsense! You're making it up in an attempt to get my commission. But it won't work!

Not at all Phil.:matte-motes-wink-tongue:....i wrote 2 or 3 identical posts at the time....one was on a Linden Blog, 1 was on XStreet Merchant forums (Dartagan Shepherd would remember it, as he complimented me for it, whilst we're busy disagreeing on other aspects!).....and 1 in the General Discussion area which would probably have been ignored like the majority of my postings! lol

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You can keep the money...i'll keep the ideas! :matte-motes-wink-tongue:

Anyways, they didn't really implemented it....there's wasn't an Arts Continent in the end (M.Linden's only decent idea).....and the "Best of SL Sims" wasn't never on their roadmap.

The Realms thing wasn't extacly what i had in mind,  as that is more "Quest" orientated.....my version, was for a series of individual Games and Sports (Race Track, Golf, Board games, Archery, Water sports, Skiing & Snowboarding, Bob-run, 10 pin bowling, SL Games etc etc.....so it was a bit different and all FREE with no commerce.)

 

The key part....it was meant to be included as part of a "official New Resident Tour" ....an alternative to what new residents had been experiencing the previous 7-8 years with those trashy Welcome Areas.

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