The developing recession and YOU.

[Sally Audebarn]

How do you think that the expected economic meltdown will afftect your profits?

(God forbid that it is not suppressed before it’s too late)



[Anaiya Arnold]

Very badly.

It's already too late.

Keep in mind that in material terms and productivity (the only real measures of real wealth) the world is currently richer than it has ever been in human history.  There is no wealth shortage problem.  The problem is wealth distribution and the deal made to raise the debt limit in the US not only failed to address this very pressing concern (for instance by closing tax loop holes), it is likely to aggravate the problem.

[Melita Magic]

The best way to cause a recession or even a depression is to tell someone there is one. Everyone stops spending, no one can keep up with their bills, people get laid off, people lose their homes, and back to everyone stops spending, and around and around it goes.

IF people would realize that they had as much money now as before...provided they are still working, of course.

[Sally Audebarn]

I agree totally, the media is also doing a pretty good job at arousing fear in people. We can only hope that this fear will be short lived and we will be able to swerve away from this seemingly inevitable financial disaster *sighs*  



[Josh Susanto]

I expect very few real effects that I haven't seen already.

[Pamela Galli]

So far I have seen no effect -- business is good, knock wood. (And I have to say in over three years of reading threads about whether business is good or bad, I have yet to see any consensus.)

I suspect that however bad things get -- and I think we are in for even more pain -- people will still look for some escape, and SL is that. In the 30's ppl loved to watch movies about rich socialites and their romances (those that still had a nickel to spend).

People may not be able to afford nice clothes, cars, and furniture in RL, but they can in SL.

That is what I suspect, not what I know, to be so.

 

 

 

[Pamela Galli]

---

Melita Magic wrote:

The best way to cause a recession or even a depression is to tell someone there is one. Everyone stops spending, no one can keep up with their bills, people get laid off, people lose their homes, and back to everyone stops spending, and around and around it goes.

IF people would realize that they had as much money now as before...provided they are still working, of course.

---

Telling ourselves everything is okay, and continuing to spend money we (Americans) do not have, has brought us to the point of nearly defaulting. We have been kicking this can down the road for decades, and can kick it no longer. People are already being laid off, have already lost their homes (many of which they could not afford in the first place), and unable to pay their bills.

[Chelsea Malibu]

Developing? I thought we've been in this since 2008.  Yes, the chair of the fed said it was over but only after they changed the way they measure it. 

In 2008 at the first market slide, my 8 clients in SL, over the course of the next few months (July to Dec) all decided to pull out as they where cutting back on expenses.  That meant 40k in revenues a month for my little start up company.

Since then, I abandoned my idea of bringing adult companies in SL and went back to work for a major internet company.

It's been a tough year in RL though last year was pretty good however, in SL my sales have held pretty steady.  If the economy was better, I truly believe this would have been a great year and am actually surprised each month when I can pay for my sim.

One thing is for sure, until after the next US General Election, we will be on the edges of our seats and holding on tight.

[Toysoldier Thor]

I am not sure why so many ppl think that the "next general election" in the US will solve all the US and world economic woes.  The financial conditions / state in the US that not only triggered the 2008 economic tsumani and is now initiating the next major wave of the bad world-wide economic slide we are now seeing was set long time ago!  LONG TIME AGO.

The US financial crisis is not a NEW phenomenom that was created by the current political powers in place.  Financial messes to the biblical order of magnitude we are are witnessing now were created prior to and up to the end of the Bush administration when his administration added over $6 Trillion to the debt during his administration's reign.  And much of this added debt was the first desperate knee-jerk lame attempt to avert years of clear and horrendous corrupt wall street activities (and world-wide financial corruption) which brought the world economy to the brink of pure colllapse.  The same corruption that was allowed to go unchecked because of several years of near-zero US regulatory "asleep at the switch" financial controls.

The mess from this unimaginable US and World-wide corruption and theft has left the current financial situation in a state that requires desperate, direct, and unfortunately very painful corrective actions in the US.

What is this corrective action?  Its the action that last week's US Debt Deal completely avoided.  Its the action that Obama and the Democrats were suggesting.  And its the corrective actions that a small yet powerful and completely naive group of ultra-right-wing TeaCup politicians doesnt belive is needed.....

The US Tax Payer needs to start taking on the responsibility of PAYING BACK THE DEBTS IT OWES.  You all know what that means.... MORE TAXES to generate more Government revenue to start paying down this debt.

Similar to any one of us.  If you go out and are irresponsible and go on spending sprees racking up credit card bills and taking out more and more loans so you can spend more .... and then AFTER you spend all this money you owe.... you turn around and say "well we have the money to pay all of you back but we do not want to pay you any more than we are now - so we promise that we MIGHT spend less and maybe some day you might get your money back - BUT we dont want to pay more than we already are - in fact we want to pay less".

What so many US citizens dont realize (or do but dont care because it might impact their self interests) is that cutting government spending is not only about cutting critical social programs which in economic times like this are needed more than ever.... Cutting spending also includes the Government not giving tax breaks and credits to individuals, companies, and entire industries that dont even need the breaks.  A TAX CREDIT IS = TO GOVERNMENT SPENDING.

Sadly... most US Citizens see their relationship to the Government as being an "US AND THEM" feud.  The US Economy will have a faint hope of recovering when this fallacy is shut down.  The US Government is the US Tax Payer & the US Citizen.  As such, the debts owed by the Government is the Citizen's responsibility.

Ironically, the one of the least patriotic citizen of a country is one that:  a)  Is corrupt and a criminal of the country's economic foundation,  b) Refuses to and/or tries every way in their power to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.

So.... in conclusion... considering the deep rooted and biblical state of this economic crisis AND considering that the attitudes to this day by those holding political power in the US is to avoid taking fair responsibilities on the debt......  put to rest that any 2012 US general election will save the day.   IT WONT!

[Josh Susanto]

For me, the word "recession" as applied to my life in the US never meant much more than the difference between failing to make ends meet with 3 jobs and failing to make ends meet with no job.

As far I can tell, honestly, there was never not a personal recession surrounding me for my whole adult life in the US.

But since I'm no longer trying to pay off an MA degree by pushing fries for The Clown, I'm about as unworried as I could possibly be about money I might not earn Second Life while my fellow voters finally start getting their come-uppance and find themselves lying in the bed they made me lie in for 20 years.

[Pamela Galli]

---

Josh Susanto wrote:

 

But since I'm no longer trying to pay off an MA degree by pushing fries for The Clown, I'm about as unworried as I could possibly be about money I might not earn Second Life while my fellow voters finally start getting their come-uppance and find themselves lying in the bed they made me lie in for 20 years.

---

Wait -- I made you lie in some bed for 20 yrs?

[Josh Susanto]

Not you personally, no.

OTOH, did the people for whom you voted win any elections?

[Poenald Palen]

Aniaya said:

"Very badly.

It's already too late.

Keep in mind that in material terms and productivity (the only real measures of real wealth) the world is currently richer than it has ever been in human history.  There is no wealth shortage problem.  The problem is wealth distribution and the deal made to raise the debt limit in the US not only failed to address this very pressing concern (for instance by closing tax loop holes), it is likely to aggravate the problem."

Once you are past a certian level of development and levels of education, you can only slide so far back. I think there is enough intellgence feedback loops running and enough ability for some to manipulate to keep a larger system intact. BUT, maybe the USA is to big? So, maybe it will 'collapse' and all will split into several new countries and dissolve the old system and then point to each other whenever the bills come in for all the debt? Sounds crazy....but, you never know.

[Josh Susanto]

For the LONG term picture, I have some suggested listening:

http://longnow.org/seminars/02011/mar/22/deep-optimism/

In the meantime, though, the "recession" just means that the financial sector has finally painted itself into a cormer much like the one into which the rest of us have been painted for a long time.

Even after I had stopped making any student loan payments for almost 10 years, the company that should have been trying to get me to pay up was shamelessly spamming me with offers to help me buy a house and a car.

The unstated message is that the business these companies is really in has almost nothing to do with actually collecting any money, and almost everything to do with simply getting people to refinance with a new principal and otherwise produce more debt instruments which can be sold at a higher price to some 2nd or 3rd or 4th company run by what classical economists like to call "the bigger idiot".

One way to get consumers to consume more, and thus keep economic growth lively enough for the middle man to get a bigger piece every year, is to give workers raises commensurate with their productivity. That's how things used to be done. About the time that credit cards were invented, though, the plan changed, and workers were enabled to consume more by being paid less (less being "the same" annual rate of pay, but under the influence of inflation). This works for a while, but when the debt bubble gets large enough, it is bound to burst.

When should we have expected it to burst? Simple. Get a 100-year calendar and find VJ day. Then add 9 months, and add 65 years after that. If you think it was just random luck that had Obama talking vaguely about Social Security checks possibly not going out this month, guess again... or just look at the calendar. This is one of the events I had predicted a long time ago, and if you dig the archives on Tribe.net, you'll find that this is undeniably true. It is something I have mentioned repeatedly over the years. 

The whole late 20th Century US economy was built around the assumption that the value of residential real estate inevitably increases, because population inevitably increases. But it doesn't. Baby Boomers and those younger are not dying at previous rates, and so the population of older people is both increasing and destined to increase for some time. But the birth rate continues to decline, so the demand for housing for families has also declined, and shall decline (the fallacy of getting rich by having few or no children, I shall have to treat elswhere, sorry). Baby Boomers, as they approach or reach the age of 65 are not much thinking about buying a bigger house. If anything, they want something smaller, or they want to move out of the country, or they just actually need to move into a community of retired people. Nonetheless, even though all the birth and death and even immigration statistics and all the other information needed to avoid this problem have been abundantly available for decades, Washington and Wall Street have conspired to utterly ignore even the most basic ramifications of same; that market-determined housing prices are VARIABLE, even in the LONG term, and that a decline in the number of prospective buyers accompanied by a boom in speculative production (which we saw because "experts", trying to "play it safe" ignorantly backed such ventures) inevitably drives market value DOWNWARD in anything but a command economy.

But don't listen to me on this point. The Harvard MBA's and other people who just spent at least the last 30 or 40 years digging you into this hole MUST know more about such things... right?

[Poenald Palen]

OH want a scarry picture based on using credit and such?

The world has only so many easy to get resources. Only so much stored energy.  Once the easy to get resources are gone, teh rare ones, we need replacements. Now, there are possible replacements. BUT, what if there isn't? I mean, there are replacement items that are less efficient...but we need energy conservation when the stored energy is starting to dry up.

So,t he push is on to get the most cheapest (read this as in using teh most abundent materials possible that also use less energy to filter..among other factors like decay...this is a long shifting and changing equation and this a tiny part!) um...OK, basically the 'best' materials that use the least energy to make, use and despose of or recycle. Once we find those, then modularize the components so they can easily be reused, make them easy to reduce use off (back ups, alternatives and possibly just switches...sounds stupid, but RAM that holds it's sate reduces electricity usage and heat!!! so, a switch offable RAM would be great, right?) and uh...basically you have this great push in two directions. 1) to conserve any energy you can. The sun poured rays into the vegatation that made oil for a long long time, we can't wait 1000's of years to play our DVD's and heat our homes...or transport medical supplies and makde plastics used to save peoples lives! 2) is that we need inventions that use less, and ways of life. Recycleing can take a lot of energy...so investment in proccesses is needed, not just using a particular material! I mean, what I say here is only the tip of the iceberg...one that might melt if we end up with war over resources....oops, already happening. WHy do I say this?

If you where a country with tonnes of energy, you beleive Gog gave you this and gave you a messenger with a message to hold that land....wouldn't you see the world that is full of trade (mohammeds profession before he lay on that boat please? Yes, a trader!) and...well...wouldn't you sort of think that you where blessed! Even if you grow up and think it is all bunk, there is nothing....you are now and athiest....wouldn't you at least maybe see that governments and individuals might think this thought I have put above about your people? So, you would see the land that has this energy as being a sought after...in fact, you see the same type of thinking in that land you are seeing move in and use that resource! What happens when you have one of the largest reserves? YOu see a future for you people, one with money and trading power. So, what do you think the people of your country feel about that? The trader, a man who understood trading, told his people to hold the land...he said it was from God! Don't you feel as if you people would figure this out at some point? So, anyone wanting to get to that oil and use it a HUGE a mount...a country with large vehicles, no MOT(motor vehicel road worthiness) and little smog testing....I mean, this country lets oil drip in thier driveways and laughs about the ol' thing needin' a quart erry month......wouldn't you sort of put 2 and 2 together and get 4? So do you see even an intellegent man, not paying attention much and even from another country from all the doom and gloom fear that people see and hear in the USA....don't you think they would also feel this gloom? So, how can people think things will be fine? Considering robots are well under development, and it is only a matter of time before genetic engineering coupled with exoskeletons will lead to a seperate class of people that can do physical work veyr easily and not need a lower class....a group that lives longer, has faster and more memory in thier heads....why do they need poor people anymore? You see classes break apart, religion driving people to grasp onto the past and become a farming underclass, you see muslims or all types feeling as if they need to break from the agreements and keep as much oil as possible while other accuse them f trying to create war....yet, war is so easy and only a few collateral damage victims exist as drones and robots fight...of course, now and then assasinations and even flat out carpet bombings when things excalate....I mean, we see splitting, war and death still around and a massive push to gain more control over the world as we run out of reserves.....this all with bioengineering reaching a height where animals get sent out, countries hunting them to stop and the big "oops" from those who released them...or simply the beasts are part of the war. You waste bullets on the beasts, you see money go down the drain and even some people get killed by them.....I mean, they breed so easily and naturally, eating up your resources until you waste time trying to run them down in exotrike suite and so on.....sad stuff...but exiting. Is that optamistic..or simply more of the same! We have sceintists excitedly working with engineers talking of fish habits to keep carp out of the great lakes, we have workers getting fired and then news of industrial exoskeletal suites...one dude can lift 200 lbs and many warehouse jobs are setting around 30-50 lbs as the limit...you see the same stuff...it doesn't change! We all have the same issues...even energy is the same! Why? We have space flight going commercial, robotics getting very useful and unmanned space missions are common...I mean, we don't just have 2-6 countries doing sattalites...it is many many more that will enter this arena! Those will also be able to handle making mining. So, we mine places that have energy! Is it tough? Sure, but we see that happen with the spills, the shale and all the fracturing ect. It is hard to squeese stuff out of wells these days, but they are doing it where as they couldn't have gotten that much out way back when black gold was found by accident in farmers fields! More of the same, but tech is needed for all this...but muslims have power and they might say no...that seems to be an issue, is the power that they have in the oil. So for a long time they have used it, as well as any other. But, you see the power struggle...the efforts to draw a line in the sand and preserve the religion and stop it from being adultrated or controlled, in thier minds. There is so much more, but with some technologies...it is both innevitable it will be used, and also innevitable it will cause war....it is only a matter of time before those who presently support peace via force will use force also for almost anything..because they can. They are not stoppable at present. There is not much of a table tipper in sight, just look at whatever is there...see it...well, anyone else can to! That means they can find a way around it, find out who has it and find out how to not get stopped by it. War becomes a simple tool, such as tax manipulation. It has been used as such since WWII by the Nato nations, the USSR and russia, the islamists, and the Isrealis and all others....governments and other groups see this as a tool....this will not change. All this is IMHO, but I really dont feel like typing it...plus, I might change my mind...there is always more happenings. I can not interact much with it all, this earth has it's own course and I am not here to manipulate it. It is all unfolding as it is, with not much help from me....nor do I wish for any blame or pain from the eruptions of stupidity that exist here.