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51 minutes ago, Sid Nagy said:

The way the world reacts on the two main crises at hand (Corona and climate change) makes that I'm a bit more pessimistic.
Humans are only a relatively short period the rulers of this planet so far, it will not last.
We are basically a too egocentric species to survive in the long term.

You may be right.
However, I am optimistic in nature and if I look at my country for example about the Virus, I see that 90% of people have been vaccinated willingly, the remaining 8% are doing it to avoid penalties and the last 2% is not relevant for the continuation of the human species.

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9 hours ago, Arielle Popstar said:

I was looking at it from an individual and small group perspective wherein history shows many immigrated to new lands to escape persecution by authoritarian and tyrannical  entities. To borrow from the Lazarus sonnet:


“Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she
With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

Fair enough: that certainly is the dominant narrative in the US since the mid-19th century. In practice, the vast majority of immigrants to the US since then are far more likely to those escaping poverty, or just seeking economic opportunity, than fleeing from political oppression. And I'm sure that's true of Canada as well.

Tragically, neither country did a very good job of assisting pre-war Jewish refugees from Nazi Germany.

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/voyage-of-the-st-louis

Edited by Scylla Rhiadra
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9 hours ago, Arielle Popstar said:

I was looking at it from an individual and small group perspective wherein history shows many immigrated to new lands to escape persecution by authoritarian and tyrannical  entities. To borrow from the Lazarus sonnet:


“Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she
With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

The economics of planetary exploration and conquest are very much different than those of the "wretched refuse". We might imagine a far off future in which such travel is available to the masses, but they will migrate long after the powerful have established profitable passage and infrastructure at the destinations (and all the rules attendant to that profitability). Earth's "New World" was every bit as habitable as the old one. That won't be true of interplanetary new worlds.

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5 hours ago, Mollymews said:

in absolute numbers the USA definitely takes a lot of legal migrant residents for sure

estimates from USA and New Zealand government sources over the last few years by comparative population

USA            
      Legal
Year  Migrants   Population   %    
2012  1,031,631  314,043,900  0.328%
2013    990,553  316,400,500  0.313%
2014  1,016,518  318,637,400  0.319%
2015  1,051,031  320,878,300  0.328%
2016  1,183,505  323,016,000  0.366%
2017  1,127,167  325,084,800  0.347%
2018  1,096,611  327,096,300  0.335%
2019  1,031,765  329,064,900  0.314%
2020    707,362  331,449,300  0.213%

New Zealand                    
      Legal
Year  Migrants   Population   %        
2012     24,441    4,415,600  0.554%        
2013     23,828    4,457,900  0.535%        
2014     26,656    4,540,300  0.587%        
2015     25,496    4,636,300  0.550%        
2016     30,786    4,741,200  0.649%        
2017     28,301    4,836,300  0.585%        
2018     22,932    4,921,300  0.466%        
2019     20,584    5,006,900  0.411%        
2020     17,524    5,098,800  0.344%      
 

 

So if you aren't in Europe, which complains a lot about the US, but also complains about refugees and doesn't take accept them in anywhere near the same per capital numbers, but you are in New Zealand, which does, that's great! To be sure, even before COVID, your numbers were dropping but that happens. So take more, as there are a lot of refugees in the world! And encourage Australia to be more generous.

If we look just at refugees, and not migrants, then New Zealand had a quota of 1,500 refugees a year which is .000295 per capita and the US fortunately after Trump raised its quota of refugees to 62,500 but that's only. 000189 per capita and the US could do a lot better. But look at the individual European and Asian countries and you will find far less.

The density of the population in New Zealand is 46 per mile, and in the US, it's more than 92 per mile, and that may be a factor, although maybe large tracts of New Zealand aren't habitable, I don't know. And that really isn't an argument because cities are crowded and more people always come to them anyway. 

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14 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

We might imagine a far off future in which such travel is available to the masses, but they will migrate long after the powerful have established profitable passage and infrastructure at the destinations (and all the rules attendant to that profitability).

I know you didn't like the movie -- and I understand and partially agree with your reasoning -- but Don't Look Up got this part right: space exploration will be -- has already been -- monetized. The moment that the US decided to outsource much of NASA's research and construction of new rockets to for-profit mega-corporations, we had moved away from the era when nations saw space, or at least pretended to see space, as a new frontier for humanity, and towards one which saw it as an opportunity to be milked for profit. The advent of space tourism by the rich and well-connected (which is so distasteful and inappropriate it almost makes me feel nauseous) is just the beginning.

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2 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

So if you aren't in Europe, which complains a lot about the US, but also complains about refugees and doesn't take accept them in anywhere near the same per capital numbers, but you are in New Zealand, which does, that's great! To be sure, even before COVID, your numbers were dropping but that happens. So take more, as there are a lot of refugees in the world! And encourage Australia to be more generous.

If we look just at refugees, and not migrants, then New Zealand had a quota of 1,500 refugees a year which is .000295 per capita and the US fortunately after Trump raised its quota of refugees to 62,500 but that's only. 000189 per capita and the US could do a lot better. But look at the individual European and Asian countries and you will find far less.

The density of the population in New Zealand is 46 per mile, and in the US, it's more than 92 per mile, and that may be a factor, although maybe large tracts of New Zealand aren't habitable, I don't know. And that really isn't an argument because cities are crowded and more people always come to them anyway. 

Just sayin' . . .

https://news.gallup.com/poll/320669/canada-migrants-sixth-place.aspx

One of the great cultural tragedies of the last decade is the retreat of a huge demographic in the US away from the very conception of immigration as a social positive. The practice has always differed from the semi-mythological narrative of course, but too many Americans are now rejecting the ideals exemplified by the verses beneath the Statue of Liberty. There is xenophobia in every country, including Canada of course . . . but the erosion of that narrative in the US is terribly sad.

Edited by Scylla Rhiadra
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5 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

Just sayin' . . .

https://news.gallup.com/poll/320669/canada-migrants-sixth-place.aspx

One of the great cultural tragedies of the last decade is the retreat of a huge demographic in the US away from the very conception of immigration as a social positive. The practice has always differed from the semi-mythological narrative of course, but too many Americans are now rejecting the semi-mythological narrative exemplified by the verses beneath the Statue of Liberty. There is xenophobia in every country, including Canada of course . . . but the erosion of that narrative in the US is terribly sad.

The US hasn't been all that accepting of many different immigrant groups over the years.  The Irish being a prime example.  It's sadly, nothing new here.  The only thing that changes is the groups country of origin.  

https://www.history.com/news/when-america-despised-the-irish-the-19th-centurys-refugee-crisis

https://www.history.com/news/italian-american-internment-persecution-wwii

https://www.history.com/news/the-brutal-history-of-anti-latino-discrimination-in-america

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At the pace we are going, I doubt there is a couple hundred years left for humanity. I feel I'm being generous in saying a couple hundred.

We're a bit too sure footed in this universe and I don't see us lasting long enough to even make a blip on earths timeline.

We're just too dang destructive of a species..

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34 minutes ago, Scylla Rhiadra said:

I know you didn't like the movie -- and I understand and partially agree with your reasoning -- but Don't Look Up got this part right: space exploration will be -- has already been -- monetized. The moment that the US decided to outsource much of NASA's research and construction of new rockets to for-profit mega-corporations, we had moved away from the era when nations saw space, or at least pretended to see space, as a new frontier for humanity, and towards one which saw it as an opportunity to be milked for profit. The advent of space tourism by the rich and well-connected (which is so distasteful and inappropriate it almost makes me feel nauseous) is just the beginning.

 

There never was an era where the US saw space as a "new frontier", it's always been about money profit. That is what every "new frontier" has always been about and always will be about. Conquest = profit. Humanity's greatest enemy is itself.

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30 minutes ago, Rowan Amore said:

The US hasn't been all that accepting of many different immigrant groups over the years.  The Irish being a prime example.  It's sadly, nothing new here.  The only thing that changes is the groups country of origin.  

https://www.history.com/news/when-america-despised-the-irish-the-19th-centurys-refugee-crisis

https://www.history.com/news/italian-american-internment-persecution-wwii

https://www.history.com/news/the-brutal-history-of-anti-latino-discrimination-in-america

Don't forget:

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/japanese-american-relocation

 

They don't' even accept those who were already here.

https://www.history.com/topics/native-american-history/trail-of-tears

Plenty more where those came from.

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2 hours ago, Ceka Cianci said:

At the pace we are going, I doubt there is a couple hundred years left for humanity. I feel I'm being generous in saying a couple hundred.

We're a bit too sure footed in this universe and I don't see us lasting long enough to even make a blip on earths timeline.

We're just too dang destructive of a species..

Sorry but do you realize how illogical this reasoning is?
Ok let's forget the whole history of human evolution and let's talk about the last 50 years.
Can you think about what the world was like 50 years ago and what it is like today?
Do you think the world 50 ago was better than today?

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1 minute ago, Tama Suki said:

I would like to remind you that apartheid was widely accepted in most of the Commonwealth 50 years ago.

Listen. You asked a question and I answered it. Ever heard of the meaning of an opinion?

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Well, according to the current theories of economics and the beliefs of most of the governments and the rich who control them and help craft laws to maintain their wealth (look at taxation, for example, only taxed on income and not wealth, wonder who that benefits?), the Earth is capable of infinite growth on finite resources. I'm sure that's something we can overcome by simply,y ignoring it :) (note: sarcasm). 

Afraid of the future? No.

Humans as a species will adapt to most things. Is this perhaps a relative "golden age"? Yes, at least if you live coddled in a Western-styled country with access to clean water to waste on 20 minute hot showers, processed foods, and a roof over your head. I think most of us on SL are in that group, btw.

I suspect that given the current conditions that were are creating, a much larger % of the world's population will not be living the high life they are now in 50 years, let alone 100.

It's not me I fear for, I will almost certainly be dead in 40 years, but a future for our grandchildren's generation looks far less optimistic to me than it once did. Do we have time to veer away from that and make the changes we will need to make less painful? Sure. But are we willing? Not sure. We say we are in surveys, and then keep buying second SUVs and McMansions regardless. 

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3 minutes ago, Sam1 Bellisserian said:

Listen. You asked a question and I answered it. Ever heard of the meaning of an opinion?

Apologizes.
Among other things, I prefer the English breakfast to the continental one and if someone does not agree I will continue to eat eggs and sausages in the morning! 😂

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4 minutes ago, Tama Suki said:

I would like to remind you that apartheid was widely accepted in most of the Commonwealth 50 years ago.

Quote

On 5 October 1960 a referendum of White voters was held to decide whether South Africa should become a republic. The result showed that 52% were in favour of a republic. In accordance with his promise that the republic would remain within the British Commonwealth, Dr H.F. Verwoerd, South African prime minister, went to London in March 1961 to give the Conference of Commonwealth Prime Ministers formal notice that South Africa was going to change from a monarchy to a republic, and at the same time to request permission to remain within the British Commonwealth. This request was strongly opposed by African States, joined by India and Canada, not because of the proposed constitutional change, but because of South Africa's policy of apartheid. When it was clear that his request would not be granted, Verwoerd withdrew South Africa's application for membership of the British Commonwealth "in the interests of South Africa's honour and dignity".

https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/south-africa-withdraws-commonwealth

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I believe the future will get worse before it gets better. When AI becomes advanced enough to drive out humans from most jobs, that's going to cause some big issues, but I think it will eventually even out, depending on how we proceed. A life of humans and robots coexisting and not having to worry about working to pay the bills could be nice.

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2 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

.. you are in New Zealand, which does, that's great! To be sure, even before COVID, your numbers were dropping but that happens. So take more, as there are a lot of refugees in the world!

If we look just at refugees, and not migrants, then New Zealand had a quota of 1,500 refugees a year which is .000295 per capita and the US fortunately after Trump raised its quota of refugees to 62,500 but that's only. 000189 per capita and the US could do a lot better

The density of the population in New Zealand is 46 per mile, and in the US, it's more than 92 per mile, and that may be a factor, although maybe large tracts of New Zealand aren't habitable, I don't know. And that really isn't an argument because cities are crowded and more people always come to them anyway. 

i can't speak to what other countries are doing as I haven't looked into them in any great detail

a thing tho  that is interesting about the percentage comparisions is that both USA and NZ peaked in 2016

overall percentage-wise NZ migrant residency has been a bit ahead of the USA since about 2008, Prior to then I think was about the same

the increase was a policy decision by the then NZ government (centre-right) to help ameoliorate the effects of the then global financial crisis over the longer term

migrants bring skills and/or money, and energy (capacity to work), which can be applied to grow the wealth-generating sector of the national economy. Migrants also have to live and eat as well as work like everyone else, so they help to grow the consumer base also

to support the quite significant increase in NZ population (4.4 million to 5.1 million over the 8 year period 2012-2020. 6/44 = 0.136%) NZ had to spend quite a lot on upgrading infrastructure that would support wealth-generating enterprises.

the two main spends items in NZ being upgrading the national main trunk road transport network and building out a nation-wide fibre broadband network. The thought of the then government (and continued by the successive centre-left government) was that these two main items would provide a base on which a migrant/tourism economic base could be built. Which was largely true, broadly speaking

then COVID came. (which tbf to all governments world-wide, is not something that can be predicted in the ordinary course. In the extraordinary course then sure it could be. Same like earthquakes, tsunami, meteor strikes, etc)

COVID has put a big damper on the NZ tourism/hospitality industry. But a consequence of COVID was the inability of ordinary consumers to travel (not just NZ people but worldwide peoples also). So the people, not able to go anywhere, started to spend their travel and hospitality discretionary money on consumer products (and still are). Truckloads and truckloads of products and services. Which the upgraded national road and broadband networks have ably supported

network infrastucture spending is critical when increasing population and/or consumer spending. Is why the Biden Administration Build Back Better (BBB) plan is pretty necessary. Tbf to Donald Trump he wanted to do a infrastructure buildout as well, same Obama, same Bush, but they all got distracted into other things. Not Joe Biden tho. Mr Biden is not for distracting

when the current networks can't support the increase in volume of people, product and services movement then is trouble for everyone

BBB Part A has been put through. BBB Part B (which includes a quite large social spending component) is stalled in the US Senate but I expect that as much as possible of BBB Part B will be put thru the US Senate reconciliaton process before the 2022 mid-term elections

tbf also to governments everywhere, including the USA, increasing government social spending is a pretty arduous process given the differing cultural/political viewpoints in the Min-Max State debate

in New Zealand since 1999 to present day successive governments (both center-left and center-right) have, as a matter of policy, broadly addressed the social spending component using a pretty blunt economic activity tool - increasing the national minimum wage on a regular basis

this policy is the surest method of distributing wealth from the top of a society to the bottom

with this policy the whole social spending component debate for the largest number of residents/citizens, gets reduced down to a single annual consideration by the government

how much can NZ as a nation, afford this year to increase the wages of the least-paid workers ? Work this out on the numbers setting aside the political implications for the party in power, and then have the political courage do it. Which has been true of NZ Prime Ministers since 1999 (30+ years now). Helen Clark, John Key, Bill English and Jacinda Ardern. None of who have lacked the courage to do the business of the nation in the best overall interest of the nation. In some years the minimum wage increase has been zero or less than people want. And the Prime Minister of the day has not lacked the courage to explain to the nation why that was. New Zealanders appreciate this, rational decision-making and explanation from their political leaders

 

about refugees. Refugees settlement is hard. Refugees require a lot more wrap-around government, local body and community services support than do migrants. When the numbers of refugees exceed the capacity of the wrap-around services then is hard times trouble for everyone

 

on topic, about the future

i am fortunate to live where I do and I am not fearful of the future.  I still have some little concerns about the long-term implications for maori people, being maori myself. But tbf, there is a willingness today by the descendants of the settlers to embrace New Zealand culturally as Aotearoa - a pacific nation. And not so much anymore as their forebears did, as a province of a overseas nation. So is all good this part and I am happy to mostly stay out of the way and just let the future generations continue on this path as each new generation does

 

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24 minutes ago, Tama Suki said:

Among other things, I prefer the English breakfast to the continental one and if someone does not agree I will continue to eat eggs and sausages in the morning! 😂

I like eggs & sausages - it is the Black Pudding and baked beans part that I can't quite get behind.

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That's all very interesting to read, and New Zealand should be proud of the positions -- and actions -- it has taken!

As you know Trump reversed years of progress with policies like barring any travel at all from certain Muslim countries on a list which wasn't even the list of what one could term "the worst" countries for terrorism, and bans were put even on students or the elderly parents of citizens, etc. So Biden reversed those executive actions which violated international treaties. Still, whether Obama or now Biden, the waits for a green card (permanent residency) are longer than ever. My son and his wife, who is from Colombia, have waited the 6 years they have been married for her finally to get her green card recently, reapplying and re-filling out forms for technical or specious reasons (especially under Trump) until at last it cleared.

But as for refugee or parolee (a category I believe they don't have any more) *services*, those began to decline even under Bill Clinton, and while churches and synagogues tried to pick up the slack, and some NGOs, it just wasn't enough. I know Russian refugees who simply couldn't cope, and went back to Russia, where some were arrested as political opposition. It's a terrible crisis. I honestly have to tell Russians and Central Asians to go to their neighbouring countries like Lithuania, Georgia, and Poland, although they are overflowing, and Ukraine and Turkey aren't an option any more (assuming you clear the COVID barriers). Currently there are no visas AT ALL to be given out to Russians, period, no matter what the issue, no matter if you are a famous tennis star or the relatives of famous former political prisoners who did get residency (I-93 visas) or someone urgently in need of medical care. Nothing (it's a tit-for-tat war).

A key feature for refugee/immigrant settlement success is whether or not it is easy to enter the economy (like Second Life in its admittedly non-scale imitation). How easy it is to open a restaurant or work in a restaurant, or get a taxi or truck driver license, or home health care certificate, etc. And there is has gotten more expensive and harder, but it still strikes me as a lot better than the situation in France, for example.

But as for third preference visas (for those who are famous musicians, artists, etc.) or H1-B visas, those still seem to be accepted because business needs those people. But there is reverse immigration from some Indian computer engineers as it has turned out not to be so great with lower salaries and huge housing costs in Silicon Valley. So the nation that forged its identity as a "nation of immigrants" has a severely tattered reputation. Even so, by contrast with European and Asian countries, there are far more even per capita. And then there are the Arab countries who refuse to take in Palestinian refugees deliberately to keep the pot on the boil.

The future is all about refugees as so many situations of war and persecution and climate change create them now.

 

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