Should Linden Lab Buy Twitter?

[Dagmar Heideman]

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WADE1 Jya wrote:

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Dagmar Heideman wrote:

Linden Lab doesn't have the capital to purchase Twitter and would never be able to raise the capital to do so.

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I'd be cautious to assume

never

.

That's a mistake some people made talking to Bill Gates or Google peeps before they got their successes... assumptions they'd be later kicking themselves for as they were potential business partners :matte-motes-whistle:

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An analogy between Linden Research and  Microsoft or Google doesn't hold water.  By the time Microsoft was as old as Linden Reseach it had already gone public the prior year and Google even earlier.  After over almost 12 years Linden has no plans to go public because it is not marketable enough to do so, and no one at Linden or its VC investors is kidding themselves that it will be in a position to do so in the foreseeable future.  It's really not cautious at all to say it will never have the capital to purchase a company with a valuation of several billion dollars.

[Ossian1488303077]

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Void Singer wrote:

I think she means the difference between anonymous and reinvented.... the former, you are only exposing what you want of your RL, and the latter you are exposing what you want of your online life (with generally little connection to your RL)

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Thanks. That makes sense.

I don't know whether that's generally true of Twitter, since it's such a big place, but it isn't true of the people I know there.

Most of the people I know on Twitter, I also know either inworld, through this forum, or via SLU. In fact,

there's almost always something happening inworld with the people I follow.

And... a few people I've met inworld because of seeing them on Twitter.

For all of us, it's a mix of our RL and SL selves -- the proportions in the mix depend on the person.

Lately, you see people with SL avatars tweeting about tornados and storms in their neighborhoods.

[Deltango Vale]

"An analogy between Linden Research and  Microsoft or Google doesn't hold water.  By the time Microsoft was as old as Linden Research it had already gone public the prior year and Google even earlier.  After over almost 12 years Linden has no plans to go public because it is not marketable enough to do so, and no one at Linden or its VC investors is kidding themselves that it will be in a position to do so in the foreseeable future."

--- Agree, but buying Twitter solves that problem instantly. Linden Lab is a cart without a horse. Twitter is a horse without a cart. Combined, they are highly marketable.

"It's really not cautious at all to say it will never have the capital to purchase a company with a valuation of several billion dollars."

--- You'd be surprised how much money is out there looking for somewhere to go. The problem is not raising money; the problem is getting around Google, Microsoft and Facebook. Twitter is the next generation of email. Twitter is email 2.0. More importantly, Twitter will be the feeder system into whichever company buys it. Therefore, it's not about money; it's about vision, leadership, intelligence and courage.

[Void Singer]

twitter is mostly universal in it's demographic... most joins now are to have contact points for information from specific points, with a side of sending information as well. your social circles determine who you see using it the most, and often the general level of personal sharing... modified by each persons limits.

a lot of people do however seem to forget that even if someone isn't following you, public tweets are still public, and easily mined.

[Dillon Levenque]

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Void Singer wrote:

a lot of people do however seem to forget that even if someone isn't following you, public tweets are still public, and easily mined.

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That is the thing about Twitter that most bothers me. People in conversation, at least most people, will say things for amusement, or from irritation, or from some other reason that they would never say 'publicly'. But fact is they are saying it publicly when they tweet. I've seen more than one instance of tweets quoted by people who had nothing whatever to do with the conversation and in all instances the purpose was to stir up drama.

Given that my primary reason for going to Twitter would be to better my contacts with my SL friends, for me it would be counter-productive. I don't have as much SL time as I'd like now, getting dragged into Twitter conversations would actually take away from my SL experience, not add to it.

Whether a connection between LL and Twitter is feasible or a good idea I am manifestly unqualified to say, but it would not be something I'd be interested in. I'll let the brains like Deltango sort it all out.

 

[Ossian1488303077]

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Dillon Levenque wrote:

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Void Singer wrote:

a lot of people do however seem to forget that even if someone isn't following you, public tweets are still public, and easily mined.

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That is the thing about Twitter that most bothers me. People in conversation, at least most people, will say things for amusement, or from irritation, or from some other reason that they would never say 'publicly'. But fact is they

are

saying it publicly when they tweet. I've seen more than one instance of tweets quoted by people who had nothing whatever to do with the conversation and in all instances the purpose was to stir up drama.

Given that my primary reason for going to Twitter would be to better my contacts with my SL friends, for me it would be counter-productive. I don't have as much SL time as I'd like now, getting dragged into Twitter conversations would actually take away from my SL experience, not add to it.

Whether a connection between LL and Twitter is feasible or a good idea I am manifestly unqualified to say, but it would not be something I'd be interested in. I'll let the brains like Deltango sort it all out.

 

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Twitter doesn't cut into my SL time... I only use it when I can't get inworld.  In fact, I've heard about events

and got invites and hooked up with people because of Twitter.  For instance, once when I was looking for

something, a friend offered to meet me inworld and bring me there.

About privacy:

You can lock your tweets so that only the people who follow you can see them.

When you do that, people can only follow you with your approval.

It is true that things said to you are open (unless your friends have their tweets locked as well),

but it's like hearing only one side of a phone conversation.

[Dagmar Heideman]

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Deltango Vale wrote:  ....You'd be surprised how much money is out there looking for somewhere to go. The problem is not raising money; the problem is getting around Google, Microsoft and Facebook. Twitter is the next generation of email. Twitter is email 2.0. More importantly, Twitter will be the feeder system into whichever company buys it. Therefore, it's not about money; it's about vision, leadership, intelligence and courage.

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I wouldn't be surprised because I know how much money is out there.  Just because private equity firms and venture capital funds have capital call in abundance doesn't mean any of them are going to loosen the purse strings for just any business plan so the problem first and foremost is raising the money.  Second Life may have a business plan that has produced relatively steady revenue but it only appeals to a limited demographic.  As you noted it is stalled and shows no growth potential with the current business model.

While Twitter could arguably provide a solution to that, one has to ask why on earth Twitter would ever consider entertaining letting the tail wag the dog.  Its revenues are predicted to exceed Linden's revenue this year, and its valuation is 10 times that of Linden Research.  Twitter is a Clydesdale in this case and Linden Research is not a cart, but a little red Radio Flyer wagon.  It makes little sense, and no VC or PE firm is going to drop 10 figures in capital into a business like Linden Research under a misguided notion that Linden will somehow be able to negotiate an acquisition of Twitter.  Similarly Twitter is never going to take an offer from Linden Research seriously  until it has at least secured firm committments to fund the acquisition.  It's far more likely that Twitter could raise the much lower capital requirement to acquire Linden Research, but I doubt it would have any interest in doing so.

Further Twitter has shown only nominal interest in being acquired by much bigger companies like Google and Facebook.  The fact that it shows such limited interest with big players like that which have a much greater potential to increase the value and success of the business gives Linden a slightly greater chance of negotiating an acquisition than you or I have of winning the next Mega Millions lottery.

[Void Singer]

google could probably as easily duplicate their work and compete directly for a much lower cost than aquisition, facebook wouldn't see a value add, and it's too costly to just sink it as competition, especially considering they don't do much special so there's nothing to stop somone else providing the same service.... twitters only saving grace is that it's the established provider of it's type and no longer small enough to be worth buying out of existence

[Alazarin Mondrian]

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Deltango Vale wrote:

Should Linden Lab buy Twitter?

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Why? Do they plan on shutting it down like they did with Avatars United?

[Deltango Vale]

From a variety of conversations and blogs, it appears that most people have given up on virtual worlds. The attitude seems to be that they are cute games that belongs in the past with Etch-A-Sketch, the Hoola-Hoop and Rubik's Cube. I believe the opposite: that Linden Lab, while poorly managed as a company, has produced the Model T of the impending Iconomy. As an IT business, I compare Linden Lab with WordPerfect 1990, Netscape Navigator 1994 and Yahoo 1997. As a concept, I compare Second Life to Jamestown 1607, Quebec 1608 and Plymouth 1620.

Needless to say, this wants a full essay, but the key to understanding Second Life is Alexander Hamilton's Report on Manufactures 1791 - not so much for its mercantilist doctrine, but for its vision of one economic sector (manufacturing) outpacing another (agriculture). Since 1956, a new economic sector (services) has overtaken manufacturing and, I believe, we will soon see virtual services accelerate with respect to real services. If this is indeed the case, Second Life is not simply a better steam engine; it is an electric engine - revolutionary - thought it took 30 years for people to fully appreciate the difference. The bottom line is that Second Life represents the leading edge of a paradigm shift. Acquiring Twitter not only provides Linden Lab a tactical advantage, but it is consistent with that paradigm shift. My earlier thoughts on the subject are here:

http://community.secondlife.com/t5/Off-Topic/Second-Life-Disney-and-Facebook/td-p/771909/page/2

http://deltango.wordpress.com/2010/06/24/a-strategic-assessment-of-second-life-part-2/

[Maryanne Solo]

Well Randall at the moment for example I have used up my broadband quota for the month and I cant log in until Monday, (2 days to go), so I can keep in touch with most of my SL friends on twitter. It is also where I heard about the General Discussion forum being re-instated and..... I follow all my fave techy things and music on twitter too. It's great!

[Gypsy Quixote]

Here's how it works ...

I only occasionally lurk in this forum, my forum and blog time has been pretty limited lately. I would never have known that this OP existed .. but Del joined twitter today, gave me a "follow", and upon checking her out, I found her link to this topic. You won't get interesting things like this in your email or IM, twitter is an announcement board, up to the minute, blog posts, new machinima, live shows, inworld parties .. it all gets announced on twitter. And IMO makes for a very natural extension of SL. At times almost like a hand reaching out to lead you inworld, at other times keeping you abreast of the best SL related reading and info on the web.

Now as for the OP, I'm not so sure that LL would, even if they could. And I prefer the DIY approach, I want LL to have their own social network, I want the stuff that Void is talking about. Keep it within one company. A merge or buyout of a media giant like Twitter just reeks of outside influence regardless of whose money is involved. I trust LL and want to keep it in the family so to speak.

But I agree 100% with Del's vision and enthusiasm towards the place that LL and SL hold in the future. Things may be slow, but this platform is still cutting edge **bleep** to most of the web, and LL is still far ahead of any competitors.

And now I'm going back to Twitter, I've always enjoyed Del's writing and once I give her a "follow" I'll always get her links without wasting the time it takes to search this futzy forum for something good.

[Deltango Vale]

Update: Linkedin is currently worth $7 billion. Based on this, Twitter would be worth $3.5 billion. Linden Lab would be worth between $1 and $2 billion. When I wrote the OP back in May, the idea was for LL to buy Twitter. Now, it would appear that Twitter is in a better position to buy Linden Lab. Personally, for reasons previously mentioned, I think the companies should be merged into a new private limited company (perhaps called Altair, keeping the brand names Second Life and Twitter).

[Phil Deakins]

Why shouldn't Linden Lab by Twitter? For the same reason that you or I shouldn't buy Twitter - because they don't have even a fraction of the money it would cost. Simples

[Deltango Vale]

Update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16241581

[Randall Ahren]

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Phil Deakins wrote:

Why shouldn't Linden Lab by Twitter? For the same reason that you or I shouldn't buy Twitter - because they don't have even a fraction of the money it would cost. Simples

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People buy real estate that way. They put a fraction down and get a loan for the rest. Businesses can be bought with a fraction of the money required via a leveraged buy out. 

 

[Deltango Vale]

So, Linden Lab missed its chance. Twitter is going for $11 billion, half my original estimate. Cheep Cheep

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24664145

[Phil Deakins]

The Twitter owners do right in trying to make a load of money from an IPO because it can't make any money, so it isn't actually worth anything. The problem with an IPO though is that the same management that can't make it earn any money continues to run it, so people who buy shares will be throwing their money away. It needs a change of management to someone with an idea of how to make it earn money.

[Deltango Vale]

Twitter could use the cash to snap up Linden Lab dirt cheap. It would bail out the LL VCs, who have obviously given up on SL, and give Twitter an income stream. All Twitter needs to do then is manages SL properly and reap the rewards.

[Deltango Vale]

So it looks like Twitter buggered things up just as badly as Linden Lab - and in much the same way. As with any soap opera, perhaps now our two weary heroes, older and wiser, will finally find each other and settle down.

Without rereading the entire thread, my main point was that Twitter could be a bridge between Second Life (+ Sansar) and RL - particularly as a feeder system from RL into virtual worlds. Twitter would actually have a purpose (instead of being a global trollfest) by giving avatars the freedom to explore RL without damaging their RL reputations. No doubt there are other potential synergies. Maybe now is the time to act while Twitter is inexpensive - a bargain, actually.