The Linden Dollar Value Has Gone Up - 251-252

[Prokofy Neva]

L$251 / US$1.00	L$918,535
L$250 / US$1.00	L$64,975,467
L$249 / US$1.00	L$48,721,850

 

So, to what do we owe this beneficial turn of events -- beneficial at least for merchants and those selling Lindens?

Somebody said "COVID-19" and stay-at-homes buying stuff -- but it wasn't like this 4 weeks ago or 2 weeks ago, but only this week.

I think it has to do with the Fantasy Faire auction and all the sales at Fantasy Faire -- people have bought priceless eggs by Alia Baroque for $12,000 or $25,000 or even $70,000 I believe, they are rares sold once a week for charity (the Relay for Life). And there were other items like Contraption's drill on Auxentios Pass that went for a huge amount in the six figures, I don't recall, maybe someone has it. The Faire is up past the US $50,000 donations mark (actually to $54,500 at this point!) and that's for the *donated* items -- there are still all the zillions of sales made as people buy exclusives and other items that suddenly seem findable and buyable in less cluttered Faire stores in beautiful builds. Or because you feel like you need a centaur to wear to the centaur stampede. I mean...parade. That sort of thing.

 

There are also a lot of other events this week -- We ❤️ RP is one, and Liasion Collaborative was so crowded you couldn't get into the sim for several days.

But it also could be the slowing of premiums, which are like printing money, as each premium gets $300 a week.

Also did I see fly by some message about how stipends were delayed? Without stipends, the Linden dollar value goes way up. 

And no, it has not been like this in 10 years or more -- many people think it "fluctiates" and is like "the normal supply and demand" of any market but of course it isn't. It is artificially controlled by Supply Linden, i.e. the Lindens need to keep the dollar cheap to encourage people to buy it, but not so cheap that people give up on their businesses because they cost too much to run.

As I think of it, the combination of the events plus the stipend error could explain it and we could see this change soon.

Thoughts?

Edited May 6, 2020 by Prokofy Neva

[Sassy Kenin]

Thanks for the update Prok. it really is somewhat puzzling.🤔

[Bree Giffen]

More people coming back to SL because of the quarantine and buying lindens? Existing residents buying more lindens because they are at home all the time? It didn't happen weeks ago because people didn't have enough money after buying all that toilet paper. 

[Charlotte Bartlett]

I suspect it's a blend - just my personal opinion:

(a) Merchants & land rental businesses are understanding more how to use the Lindex combined with buyer pressure.   Generally there has been a reduction in selling one point above the market (except some of the larger land barons who tend to have no issue losing over 500 USD a year simply by selling at the wrong rate - I think this is why LINDEX education is important to help maximize returns).  I have certainly seen a wider  understanding about selling in advance, allowing sales to take a week to close, not filling up sale queues above the market and focusing sales at a rate below, parking money daily at the target rates versus one big sale each week etc.   

(b) However, the main driver beyond the education that has been going on regarding the above, seems to be metrically driven by significant buyer growth levels.   LL, I am sure, will release  some information around returning users/growth (I have asked them for this to share some highlights if they can as it's been amazing to see).   

Some key highlights on that "available number" to show you the trend.

16th Jan -  3.7M USD available in top 20 rates
18th Feb - 3.3M USD ditto
20th Apr - 668K USD ditto
29th Apr -505K USD ditto
Then we saw the intraday dip to 380K USD
1st May - 438K USD*
3rd May 491K USD
4th May - 250 Rate handbrake firmly on - 646K available reversing the trend.
Today - 519K - back to reduction so we'll wait to see what Supply Linden lets us do the next 3-5 days 

The rate has been in a controlled change over this month (and since February).  It's still creating an affordable experience for those purchasing Linden Dollars when you take into account the sales, demand etc.      We haven't seen 249 sales in quite some time, so it's great to see that rate in reach again.    

Things like if you were selling at 250 and had put in your sale on 28th April it would have be closed by now.
If you had also placed your sales at 249 up to 1st May - there is only 3M ahead of you in that queue once that rate starts selling.

249 sales have been delayed (in my opinion) by:
There has been concerted effort (intention or accidental) due to the size of the 250 queue since the start of May, to push the rate a little up and to not let 250 deplete. There was around 10M in large chunky sales in an hour for example yesterday that pushed more money into that queue and some above it, effectively creating a "hand break" on the rate depleting sufficiently to have people not "queue jump".

But as a comparison there was 56.6M stuck on the 257 queue on 21st April and the market managed to clear that by 24th April.  The velocity seen then has slowed a bit now in comparison.  But it's not buyer volume that has slowed, simply more for sale was pushed into that 250 rate.

In reality, my personal thoughts are this is all great news for small creators/rental businesses whom rely on SL to feed their families (particularly right now).  Will the growth "stick" is another question, I suspect looking at when large businesses expect a lot of WFH workers to return (particularly in the US) we may see this continue through to August (and then who knows).

Supply Linden has been managing through a fine line of inflation and growth - I have my beady eye on them. I want them to continue to let the inflation move a little further, whilst the market can bear it.    Now if we can before the Monday Sellers start get into a 248/9 rate - I will be happy. 
 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Charlotte Bartlett

[Lindal Kidd]

Maybe Ebbe's doing some currency manipulation so he can buy low, sell high, and give out Christmas bonuses this year.

[Sassy Kenin]

4 hours ago, Charlotte Bartlett said:

I suspect it's a blend - just my personal opinion:

That's a good analysis, 💖appreciated

[Evah Baxton]

Just paid my credit card balance. I'm sure I had something to do with it. 🤢

[chabe Staheli]

On 5/7/2020 at 12:43 AM, Prokofy Neva said:

L$251 / US$1.00	L$918,535
L$250 / US$1.00	L$64,975,467
L$249 / US$1.00	L$48,721,850

 

Entonces, ¿a qué debemos este giro beneficioso de los acontecimientos-- al menos para los comerciantes y aquellos que venden Lindens?

Alguien dijo "COVID-19" y que darse a sus hogares comprando cosas, pero no fue así hace 4 semanas o 2 semanas, pero sólo esta semana.

Creo que tiene que ver con la subasta de Fantasy Faire y todas las ventas en Fantasy Faire -- la gente ha comprado huevos invaluables por Alia Baroque por $12,000 o $25,000 o incluso $70,000 creo, son raras vendidas una vez a la semana para caridad (el Relay for Life). Y había otros artículos como el taladro de Contraption en Auxentios Pass que fue por una gran cantidad en las seis cifras, no recuerdo, tal vez alguien lo tiene. La Feria ha pasado la marca de donaciones de US$50.000 (¡en realidad a $54,500 en este punto!) y eso es para los artículos *donados* -- todavía hay todos los millones de ventas hechas a medida que la gente compra exclusivas y otros artículos que de repente parecen encontrables y se pueden comprar en tiendas Faire menos desordenadas en hermosas construcciones. O porque sientes que necesitas un centauro para llevar a la estampida de centauro. Quiero decir... Desfile. Ese tipo de cosas.

 

También hay muchos otros eventos esta semana -- Nos ❤️ RP es uno, y Liasion Collaborative estaba tan lleno que no podía entrar en el simulador durante varios días.

Pero también podría ser la ralentización de las primas, que son como imprimir dinero, ya que cada prima recibe $300 a la semana.

¿También vi volar por algún mensaje sobre cómo se retrasaron los estipendios? Sin estipendios, el valor del dólar Linden sube mucho.

Y no, no ha sido así en 10 años o más - mucha gente piensa que "fluctiates" y es como "la oferta y la demanda normales" de cualquier mercado, pero por supuesto que no lo es. Es controlado artificialmente por Supply Linden, es decir, los Linden necesitan mantener el dólar barato para animar a la gente a comprarlo, pero no tan barato que la gente renuncia a sus negocios porque cuestan demasiado para correr.

Como pienso en ello, la combinación de los eventos más el error de estipendio podría explicarlo y pudimos ver este cambio pronto.

¿Pensamientos?

 

[Charlotte Bartlett]

On 5/7/2020 at 4:29 PM, Charlotte Bartlett said:

I suspect it's a blend - just my personal opinion:

(a) Merchants & land rental businesses are understanding more how to use the Lindex combined with buyer pressure.   Generally there has been a reduction in selling one point above the market (except some of the larger land barons who tend to have no issue losing over 500 USD a year simply by selling at the wrong rate - I think this is why LINDEX education is important to help maximize returns).  I have certainly seen a wider  understanding about selling in advance, allowing sales to take a week to close, not filling up sale queues above the market and focusing sales at a rate below, parking money daily at the target rates versus one big sale each week etc.   

(b) However, the main driver beyond the education that has been going on regarding the above, seems to be metrically driven by significant buyer growth levels.   LL, I am sure, will release  some information around returning users/growth (I have asked them for this to share some highlights if they can as it's been amazing to see).   

Some key highlights on that "available number" to show you the trend.

16th Jan -  3.7M USD available in top 20 rates
18th Feb - 3.3M USD ditto
20th Apr - 668K USD ditto
29th Apr -505K USD ditto
Then we saw the intraday dip to 380K USD
1st May - 438K USD*
3rd May 491K USD
4th May - 250 Rate handbrake firmly on - 646K available reversing the trend.
Today - 519K - back to reduction so we'll wait to see what Supply Linden lets us do the next 3-5 days 

The rate has been in a controlled change over this month (and since February).  It's still creating an affordable experience for those purchasing Linden Dollars when you take into account the sales, demand etc.      We haven't seen 249 sales in quite some time, so it's great to see that rate in reach again.    

Things like if you were selling at 250 and had put in your sale on 28th April it would have be closed by now.
If you had also placed your sales at 249 up to 1st May - there is only 3M ahead of you in that queue once that rate starts selling.

249 sales have been delayed (in my opinion) by:
There has been concerted effort (intention or accidental) due to the size of the 250 queue since the start of May, to push the rate a little up and to not let 250 deplete. There was around 10M in large chunky sales in an hour for example yesterday that pushed more money into that queue and some above it, effectively creating a "hand break" on the rate depleting sufficiently to have people not "queue jump".

But as a comparison there was 56.6M stuck on the 257 queue on 21st April and the market managed to clear that by 24th April.  The velocity seen then has slowed a bit now in comparison.  But it's not buyer volume that has slowed, simply more for sale was pushed into that 250 rate.

In reality, my personal thoughts are this is all great news for small creators/rental businesses whom rely on SL to feed their families (particularly right now).  Will the growth "stick" is another question, I suspect looking at when large businesses expect a lot of WFH workers to return (particularly in the US) we may see this continue through to August (and then who knows).

Supply Linden has been managing through a fine line of inflation and growth - I have my beady eye on them. I want them to continue to let the inflation move a little further, whilst the market can bear it.    Now if we can before the Monday Sellers start get into a 248/9 rate - I will be happy. 
 

Just to correct the figures in Jan and Feb were 1.86M USD and 1.71M USD respectively versus the numbers (apologies copied from the wrong metric column!).

I have now had my 249 sales go through 🙂

[Prokofy Neva]

On 5/7/2020 at 4:29 PM, Charlotte Bartlett said:

I suspect it's a blend - just my personal opinion:

(a) Merchants & land rental businesses are understanding more how to use the Lindex combined with buyer pressure.   Generally there has been a reduction in selling one point above the market (except some of the larger land barons who tend to have no issue losing over 500 USD a year simply by selling at the wrong rate - I think this is why LINDEX education is important to help maximize returns).  I have certainly seen a wider  understanding about selling in advance, allowing sales to take a week to close, not filling up sale queues above the market and focusing sales at a rate below, parking money daily at the target rates versus one big sale each week etc.   

(b) However, the main driver beyond the education that has been going on regarding the above, seems to be metrically driven by significant buyer growth levels.   LL, I am sure, will release  some information around returning users/growth (I have asked them for this to share some highlights if they can as it's been amazing to see).   

Some key highlights on that "available number" to show you the trend.

16th Jan -  3.7M USD available in top 20 rates
18th Feb - 3.3M USD ditto
20th Apr - 668K USD ditto
29th Apr -505K USD ditto
Then we saw the intraday dip to 380K USD
1st May - 438K USD*
3rd May 491K USD
4th May - 250 Rate handbrake firmly on - 646K available reversing the trend.
Today - 519K - back to reduction so we'll wait to see what Supply Linden lets us do the next 3-5 days 

The rate has been in a controlled change over this month (and since February).  It's still creating an affordable experience for those purchasing Linden Dollars when you take into account the sales, demand etc.      We haven't seen 249 sales in quite some time, so it's great to see that rate in reach again.    

Things like if you were selling at 250 and had put in your sale on 28th April it would have be closed by now.
If you had also placed your sales at 249 up to 1st May - there is only 3M ahead of you in that queue once that rate starts selling.

249 sales have been delayed (in my opinion) by:
There has been concerted effort (intention or accidental) due to the size of the 250 queue since the start of May, to push the rate a little up and to not let 250 deplete. There was around 10M in large chunky sales in an hour for example yesterday that pushed more money into that queue and some above it, effectively creating a "hand break" on the rate depleting sufficiently to have people not "queue jump".

But as a comparison there was 56.6M stuck on the 257 queue on 21st April and the market managed to clear that by 24th April.  The velocity seen then has slowed a bit now in comparison.  But it's not buyer volume that has slowed, simply more for sale was pushed into that 250 rate.

In reality, my personal thoughts are this is all great news for small creators/rental businesses whom rely on SL to feed their families (particularly right now).  Will the growth "stick" is another question, I suspect looking at when large businesses expect a lot of WFH workers to return (particularly in the US) we may see this continue through to August (and then who knows).

Supply Linden has been managing through a fine line of inflation and growth - I have my beady eye on them. I want them to continue to let the inflation move a little further, whilst the market can bear it.    Now if we can before the Monday Sellers start get into a 248/9 rate - I will be happy. 
 

You certainly watch the LindEx way more than I do, but I totally agree about the "education" aspect, to convince people to wait even 10 minutes instead of the instant cashout -- many people fear the LindEx and get into a learned helplessness of trying to understand it, a reflection of the poor math education in the US and the decline of practical education in general around the world.

I don't think the education could happen so fast as to explain the current spread, however; we're talking about 259 as the norm before COVID (correlation or no) and 252 today. That's a very big spread. So that's about the combination of things like more sales, big events, a slowing of premiums --whatever.

[Theresa Tennyson]

57 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

You certainly watch the LindEx way more than I do, but I totally agree about the "education" aspect, to convince people to wait even 10 minutes instead of the instant cashout -- many people fear the LindEx and get into a learned helplessness of trying to understand it, a reflection of the poor math education in the US and the decline of practical education in general around the world.

I don't think the education could happen so fast as to explain the current spread, however; we're talking about 259 as the norm before COVID (correlation or no) and 252 today. That's a very big spread. So that's about the combination of things like more sales, big events, a slowing of premiums --whatever.

259 was never the "norm." It was an abnormally high Linden/dollar level compared to long-standing historical trends and began shortly after the latest round of fee changes last year. It dropped down fairly gradually for weeks after COVID-19 quarantines began and daily Linden trading volume increased.  The sudden drop of 3 points or so you noticed was immediately after May 1 - there's always a large spike in volume around the first of the month as people pay monthly rent. Even so, 252 is still a bit higher than the longstanding exchange rate. You can see all this by looking at the graphs of exchange rates over time.

[Charlotte Bartlett]

2 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

You certainly watch the LindEx way more than I do, but I totally agree about the "education" aspect, to convince people to wait even 10 minutes instead of the instant cashout -- many people fear the LindEx and get into a learned helplessness of trying to understand it, a reflection of the poor math education in the US and the decline of practical education in general around the world.

I don't think the education could happen so fast as to explain the current spread, however; we're talking about 259 as the norm before COVID (correlation or no) and 252 today. That's a very big spread. So that's about the combination of things like more sales, big events, a slowing of premiums --whatever.

There has been ongoing education across a group of 200 plus creators for a while.   But per above I think the main driver remains the growth aspect.
I data monitor the Lindex real time to pull out trends as the LL metrics remain limited and not particularly useful for me at this time.     They don't have that as a priority this year (the cloud work comes first).
247/248 were typically the sales we had for a significant period up to the fee changes as Theresa mentions (but also prior to the timeline of Sansar).

Edited May 12, 2020 by Charlotte Bartlett

[ChinRey]

2 hours ago, Charlotte Bartlett said:

There has been ongoing education across a group of 200 plus creators for a while.

I don't think us creators have much infuence on this. What we make is a drop in the ocean compared to the big and mid sized landowners.

[LibGwen]

11 hours ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

It dropped down fairly gradually for weeks after COVID-19 quarantines began and daily Linden trading volume increased.  The sudden drop of 3 points or so you noticed was immediately after May 1 - there's always a large spike in volume around the first of the month as people pay monthly rent.

What raised my eyebrows was the sheer volume of trade on May 1.

Edited May 13, 2020 by LibGwen

[Prokofy Neva]

23 hours ago, ChinRey said:

I don't think us creators have much infuence on this. What we make is a drop in the ocean compared to the big and mid sized landowners.

Oh, there are big-time creators who make mesh bodies, hair, skins, breedable pets etc and they move markets.

[Charlotte Bartlett]

On 5/12/2020 at 3:41 PM, ChinRey said:

I don't think us creators have much infuence on this. What we make is a drop in the ocean compared to the big and mid sized landowners.

I am always the optimist!  

I think educating both land barons and creators on the Lindex is key - so all understand more.   I would love to see Land Barons effectively also maximize their returns by being more effective on their selling strategy.  And always regardless of what land barons/merchants do, there is Supply Linden managing the fine line of inflation versus affordability.