What is LLs plan moving forward?

[FairreLilette]

1 hour ago, Beth Macbain said:

It's shameful. 

I'm sorry but that is what I think of politicians and bureaucrats.  There are people who are apolitical and your opinion nor anyone's opinion on voting does not matter to an apolitical person. 

I work for small changes in my immediate environment that have nothing to do with politics nor religion and it's my own personal business as to what this is other than it's efforts are to make a positive change.  

No one puts a gun to our head to vote and it should not be that way.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by FairreLilette

[LittleMe Jewell]

6 hours ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

The first batch of US folks -- roughly 50-60 million -- will be getting their stimulus money starting today through next week. This applies to people that have filed a tax return in 2018 or 2019 AND gave the IRS their bank info, either for a direct deposit of tax refunds or for payment of a tax bill.  That first group will also include Social Security 'beneficiaries' that have filed tax returns that included bank info.

The next batch, starting April 20th, will be people receiving Social Security benefits via direct deposit, but whom didn't file 2018 & 2019 taxes.  

The last batch will be the ones that have not filed taxes in the last couple of years and that do not currently receive any Social Security benefits.  Those are the ones that will get checks.  Depending on how many checks the IRS ends up having to send, the final ones might not be received until July.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/04/08/stimulus-money-hit-u-s-waves-some-arrives-april-15/2971312001/

Expanding on the above info - I saw this in an article today:

Taxpayers with income up to $10,000: April 24
Taxpayers with income up to $20,000: May 1
Taxpayers with income up to $40,000: May 15
The rest of the checks will be issued by gradually increasing income increments each week, continuing through Sept. 4.
The last group of checks will be sent on Sept. 11 to those who didn't have tax information on file and had to apply for checks.

[Sassy Kenin]

8 hours ago, Drayke Newall said:

The very fact that you said 'could' means you don't understand the economics of what has been happening around the world.

 

Well the fact is i originally typed up a TLDR:, but after looking at it from several angles while editing i came to the conclusion it was not in the scope of discussion, while with today's current events most are coming on here for comfort & escape then I did not want to add to the stress they are facing.

Vanity Fairs comments to me were informative & appreciated, I felt my opinion was better off being short & supportive in this situation instead of long or over opinionated.

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Shansi Kenin
Shortened Paragraph

[Sassy Kenin]

19 hours ago, animats said:

Yes. That's the point.

Somewhere a goat cries.

 

[Mollymews]

9 hours ago, Drayke Newall said:

You also need to realise the impact this is going to have on the economy for future generations. The handouts during this time to unemployed and businesses etc, like Americas 2 trillion bailout, or the hundreds of billions from other countries to their citizens, doesn't grow on trees and will need to be paid back by the tax payer. This will likely mean much higher tax rates not only for individuals but also possibly businesses for years. This does not bode well once again when inflation sets in due to quantitate easing systems of the reserve banks need to print money to keep the economies afloat now directly impacting on the individuals budget.

just on this bit. Some thoughts

money today is fiat. Using the USA as the strongest example of how fiat money works. The 2 trillion soon to be 4 trillion dollars help package. This is being issued in a fiat currency (the USD) and doesn't create an actual debt that has to be repaid. The US government is creating ledger entries which can be struck out with the stroke of a pen. Being able to forgive oneself of monies owed to oneself is not a debt

where fiat money is an instrument of debt is when the fiat issuer needs to trade their currency for another to buy stuff in that other currency, when the seller will not accept the fiat currency of the issuer buyer. The USA does not have this problem being the go to safe haven fiat currency for the world

in the USA the political hustings idea of balancing the government books has always been a political illusion. An illusion which the US Senate/Congress shattered with the speed at which the help package was created out of effectively nothing, other than on the reputation of the issuer

a thing. A question. Why in these times of massive quantitative easing (creating fiat currency out of nothing) has inflation not occurred. An answer is the 0.1% sink. A relatively few entities/people soaking up the excess and in many cases having nothing to spend it on. Like JPMorgan the bank for example, it has about 500 trillion dollars in its pockets and has no hope of ever lending it all out at commercial rates. Among the 0.1% it has almost become like a leaderboard game. How many billions and trillions do I have on the board

had the bulk of quantitative easing been given to the poorer sections of the community then inflation would have occurred, because these people would have sought to spend it all on the necessities of life and would have been able to spend it, unlike the 0.1%

[Drayke Newall]

4 hours ago, Mollymews said:

just on this bit. Some thoughts

Getting a little off topic but just wanted to reply to this even though it does tie into LL and its potential continuance due to people potentially having less money to spend.

No, actually America does need to pay it back, it just refuses too despite its promises. It has now got to the point where America's debt and constant debt ceiling raising is a joke and a disaster waiting to happen.

This becomes a problem and is why every few years they get into trouble when they need to increase their debt ceiling due to the risk on defaulting on their debt. This debt ceiling increase was postponed until after the 2020 elections, however when this was postponed there was no thought of another up to 6 trillion dollars being added (instantly) to the already enormous 25ish trillion dollar debt. If America defaults on its debt, countries around the world will pull all its cash out of America meaning America will fall and hit the bottom very badly. Given China holds an enormous amount of US Cash, them dumping that (as people were hoping they wouldn't in the 2008 crisis) would basically make America the next Zimbabwe.

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-ceiling-why-it-matters-past-crises-3305868

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-default-3306295

Economists state that a country can at most usually borrow 90% of its GPD without slowing the economy however any more will be bad. Currently before coronavirus and with these bailouts America is over 100% over its GPD. Considering the 16 million people filing for unemployment, numerous bankruptcies as well as already close to 4 weeks of many companies making NO money meaning a reduction in tax revenue and GPD, this GPD is predicted to shrink in America by up to 30% according to economists with best case scenario being -3ish% over the year. This means that the debt to GPD ratio is ever more enormous. In the article mentioned below take note of the last sentence quote "As long as the GPD grows more than the interest payments on the debt America will be fine". The problem facing America now is that that GPD is looking to contract not by just the mentioned 2.1% interest increase but an ENORMOUS amount (almost 30%) more. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-stimulus-package-pay-united-states/

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-gdp-drop-record-2q-amid-coronavirus-recession-goldman-sachs-2020-3-1029018308 This before mentioned article shows the GPD reduction estimates however given the drastic events since then I'm thinking it may be even more. Goldman Sachs at the time estimated unemployment will reach 9%. USA has already exceeded that amount.

The other issue is that all that is happening now is the government is putting a band aid over a massive gaping wound. They did this in the 2008 crisis and is why we are suffering for it now as there was no other avenue that America could take to limit the impact. All America is doing is kicking the ball down the road hoping that it never reaches a dead end.

There is a reason why Trump has coined the phrase "the cure cant be worse than the virus".

If LL wants to stay afloat during this time then as I hinted in my post they should be looking at many avenues to increase their revenue that doesn't solely rely on the extras of individual peoples income. They need to start looking at viable ways in which business etc can help increase their revenue rather than individuals whilst also making the world more accessible to people. You never put all your eggs in one basket.

5 hours ago, Shansi Kenin said:

Well the fact is i originally typed up a TLDR:, but after looking at it from several angles while editing i came to the conclusion it was not in the scope of discussion, while with today's current events most are coming on here for comfort & escape then I did not want to add to the stress they are facing.

Vanity Fairs comments to me were informative & appreciated, I felt my opinion was better off being short & supportive in this situation instead of long or over opinionated.

All good and understand, though as far as I see it the thread op does fall within the scope as the economy directly impacts on the userbases' finances which also impacts on SL.

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Drayke Newall

[Mollymews]

8 hours ago, Drayke Newall said:

Getting a little off topic but just wanted to reply to this even though it does tie into LL and its potential continuance due to people potentially having less money to spend.

No, actually America does need to pay it back, it just refuses too despite its promises. It has now got to the point where America's debt and constant debt ceiling raising is a joke and a disaster waiting to happen.

This becomes a problem and is why every few years they get into trouble when they need to increase their debt ceiling due to the risk on defaulting on their debt. This debt ceiling increase was postponed until after the 2020 elections, however when this was postponed there was no thought of another up to 6 trillion dollars being added (instantly) to the already enormous 25ish trillion dollar debt. If America defaults on its debt, countries around the world will pull all its cash out of America meaning America will fall and hit the bottom very badly. Given China holds an enormous amount of US Cash, them dumping that (as people were hoping they wouldn't in the 2008 crisis) would basically make America the next Zimbabwe.

we are getting a little off-topic I agree. In the wider sense like you mention, what impacts the USA impacts LL so carry on

i just recap what i was saying and on a point which I think we agree

with fiat money, then for this to work then there has to be a another person(s) who has confidence that the scrip received for the goods/services they provide, will be able to be traded at par for other goods/services provided by someone else. A tangible byproduct of this confidence being a reasonable expectation of a continued reasonable standard of living for all involved. Which I think we agree on

diverging a little now

as you mention there are lots of economic models/papers/studies etc, both data historical and projected that present scenarios on the underlying fundamental question. Which is: At what point does the confidence erode? And then what are the circumstances that lead up to this point ? And what happens after the needed confidence has eroded, tipping the currency over ?

the seemingly obvious conclusion from this is: The tipping point arrives inevitably for those who don't pay their debts

this seemingly obvious conclusion is not true in every case. And in most cases any reduction in the standard of living for those holding a now worthless currency/scrip is short term. Short term being relative to the life of a nation as a whole. Same in the individual case. Like bankruptcy (debt forgiveness) for example. The person or nation doesn't stay bankrupt forever, even tho the creditors may have taken a currency-denominated beating

even Zimbabwe which is the classic model bogey

after years of hyper-inflation of the Z$ (Zimbabwe dollar) the Zimbabwe government in 2009 abandoned the Z$ completely and started over using the USD. By 2014 the government had recognised about 9 foreign currencies for trade use within the country: usd, rand, euro, pound, yen, rupee, yuan, bula and aud to provide some flexibility and not be strait-jacketed by only using USD. Which happened to Greece for example, strait-jacketed by the Euro, over which it had no control

the abandonment of the Z$ effectively eliminated hyper-inflation and enabled the country's financial accounting systems to get back to some semblance of normality. Simply by removing the Z$ instrument from the books

then in 2019 the re-introduction of the Z$. Quickly back to Z$ denominated hyper-inflation. Again driven by no confidence in the Z$ instrument itself

what I am pointing to is that hyper-inflation (as denominated in any particular currency/scrip) and/or debt repayment/non-repayment doesn't change the economy (or perhaps more precisely the value of goods/services) in itself. While those who hold the scrip can take a denominated beating, the economy on an operational basis doesn't when the goods/services can be traded for something else (like alternative scrips / fiat currency) that do imbue confidence

this is something that countries like China, Saudi, Japan, Germany, etc who have large amounts of USA denominated assets like Treasury bonds, etc understand. They, being the creditors, will take the denominated beating, should they project that they have lost confidence in the USD. A beating that could render their denominated holdings worthless (like Z$ holdings), something the creditors are well aware of

the USA is nothing like Zimbabwe tho. Should the USA go down in this accounting sense, then so will everyone else who is exposed to the USD. Which is pretty much everyone. International trade in goods/services will continue tho as it always does, even if in diminished capacity for some relatively short period on the longer timeline

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Mollymews
19

[Drayke Newall]

45 minutes ago, Mollymews said:

the USA is nothing like Zimbabwe tho. Should the USA go down in this accounting sense, then so will everyone else who is exposed to the USD. Which is pretty much everyone. International trade in goods/services will continue tho as it always does, even if in diminished capacity for some relatively short period on the longer timeline

Agree, though the risk is there for USA to default and therefore mean a devaluation of their money and all those countries you mention will indeed dump their US assets to try and sell off before the devaluation goes to far.

As you state in the quoted section above, this is the current nightmare scenario America needs to avoid and why the huge stimuluses' from this downturn is very worrying. With GPD issues looking to be likely as well as a potential issue in raising the debt ceiling for the umpteenth time it is looking more and more like a massive risk and issue the longer these lockdowns continue. Hence we have the situation of do you save lives from the virus or from economic ruin.

As you also mentioned economists and many businesses are looking on the situation with a keen eye as any form of impact on the US dollar and trade will mean financial ruin for most if not all countries. Something no one wants. This is why I also think that we need to start looking at ways in which we can remove the reliance of countries on the USD for this reason and also why given Australia's huge gold reserves unmined Australia would be better on the gold standard and increasing the physical gold assets as well as gas etc. But that topic will most certainly be off topic.

[Luna Bliss]

22 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

On 4/9/2020 at 9:37 AM, Luna Bliss said:

I could not believe the first draft by the Republicans -- really shows who they are. Too bad this can't be posted somewhere prominent for all to see -- nobody would vote for them again.

It's a blame game happening now.  It's gonna be a circus for a while with scapegoat du jour.  

Don't let what you can't change nor have control over stress you out too much though

But, I think some the best input I've gotten into all this "circus" is right here on this forum of SL.  It cuts through the BS pretty quickly.  I kinda knew that if I posted what PT said about the anti-malaria drug..

Thanks for your concern about my stress levels. You're right....it's not healthy to stress-out over things we can't change. However, I really believe we can change society more than we sometimes think we can. I don't want to become complacent.

Yes you can learn a lot on a forum.

[Luna Bliss]

20 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

21 hours ago, Beth Macbain said:

It's shameful. 

I'm sorry but that is what I think of politicians and bureaucrats.  There are people who are apolitical and your opinion nor anyone's opinion on voting does not matter to an apolitical person. 

I work for small changes in my immediate environment that have nothing to do with politics nor religion and it's my own personal business as to what this is other than it's efforts are to make a positive change.  

No one puts a gun to our head to vote and it should not be that way.  

I'm glad you work for positive changes, and I think someone, for example, working in a soup kitchen for 8 hours on the weekend might do more for society than a person who spends 10 minutes filling out a ballot form every 4 years.

Not voting though, can have more damage than you might imagine. Politics is really about how we divide the resources in society -- it's not about the bloviating politicians.  When you don't vote, you funnel more to the wealthy, and the poor suffer. People die. Children go hungry.  Those without health insurance never recover. You can look up the proposed policies of any party/candidate to see how those in our society will be affected. I consider those who don't vote as participating in cruelty, even murder, though often not consciously.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Luna Bliss

[Love Zhaoying]

31 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

Thanks for your concern about my stress levels.

In the last year or so, I graduated from "stress" to "anxiety". It's subtle.

[Tolya Ugajin]

On 4/9/2020 at 2:35 AM, Matty Luminos said:

I'm working from home for the first time and enjoying it, mainly because I'm not having to sit on a bus for 2 hours a day. My colleagues with children are finding it much harder because the schools are closed and not only are the children at home being a distraction, the parents are also expected to be homeschooling them at the same time as they are working. Needless to say this is not working out at all well on either side. It would be a lot different for them if their children were in school.

 

My (largely female, most with kids) administrative staff have been clamoring for work from home arrangements for years, and their department managers have given them the same lame excuses for years (largely because the truth is they don't trust people to work from home and can't be bothered to actually measure performance in any meaningful way).  Now, they look like idiots because 98% of them are working from home just fine and the business hasn't come to a crashing halt.  When this is over, it's going to be impossible to hide the fact that not only did it work, it worked on short notice.  Hopefully we use this to move managers stuck in the 90's into the 21st century and become an even better place to work.

[LittleMe Jewell]

3 hours ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

My (largely female, most with kids) administrative staff have been clamoring for work from home arrangements for years, and their department managers have given them the same lame excuses for years (largely because the truth is they don't trust people to work from home and can't be bothered to actually measure performance in any meaningful way).  Now, they look like idiots because 98% of them are working from home just fine and the business hasn't come to a crashing halt.  When this is over, it's going to be impossible to hide the fact that not only did it work, it worked on short notice.  Hopefully we use this to move managers stuck in the 90's into the 21st century and become an even better place to work.

My boss is one of the more modern ones about working from home, partly because our team actually has a few 'always remote' folks anyway.  My previous boss was more of a stickler. We were only allowed to work from home regularly one day a week unless we had a really good reason.  I don't know if his attitude was just stuck in the past or if he had had performance issues with someone in the past or what.  I've been working from home 3-5 days a week since shortly after changing bosses -- and all has been fine.  

One of the positives of the current situation is like you said -- everyone is working from home and all of the work is getting done as scheduled or ahead of schedule.  

[Alwin Alcott]

wished i could work from home too, but think the management doesn't want to build some kind of carwash for elderly people in my backyard

 

[Tolya Ugajin]

7 hours ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

My boss is one of the more modern ones about working from home, partly because our team actually has a few 'always remote' folks anyway.  My previous boss was more of a stickler. We were only allowed to work from home regularly one day a week unless we had a really good reason.  I don't know if his attitude was just stuck in the past or if he had had performance issues with someone in the past or what.  I've been working from home 3-5 days a week since shortly after changing bosses -- and all has been fine.  

One of the positives of the current situation is like you said -- everyone is working from home and all of the work is getting done as scheduled or ahead of schedule.  

Personally, I'm not good working at home.  I'm too easily distracted.  I'm great working from a hotel room, but when the feral cats come begging at my back door, or if I flip on the TV while taking a little break, I'm toast.  Fortunately, other than knowing I'm answering phones and emails and IM's quickly, my boss has no way of knowing how unproductive I am

[Vanity Fair]

I am also working from home (since March 16th), and I find I am easily distracted as well, Tolya.

[ChinRey]

On 4/10/2020 at 12:26 AM, Mollymews said:

a thing. A question. Why in these times of massive quantitative easing (creating fiat currency out of nothing) has inflation not occurred. An answer is the 0.1% sink. A relatively few entities/people soaking up the excess and in many cases having nothing to spend it on. Like JPMorgan the bank for example, it has about 500 trillion dollars in its pockets and has no hope of ever lending it all out at commercial rates. Among the 0.1% it has almost become like a leaderboard game. How many billions and trillions do I have on the board

You have a point although that unused money doesn't generate hyperinflation, it doesn't do anything else either. It's just numbers in a spreadhseet with no impact on the real world.

However:

On 4/10/2020 at 12:26 AM, Mollymews said:

had the bulk of quantitative easing been given to the poorer sections of the community then inflation would have occurred, because these people would have sought to spend it all on the necessities of life and would have been able to spend it, unlike the 0.1%

That's what the US government is doing now with their stimulus package(s).

[Mollymews]

1 hour ago, ChinRey said:

You have a point although that unused money doesn't generate hyperinflation, it doesn't do anything else either. It's just numbers in a spreadhseet with no impact on the real world.

However:

That's what the US government is doing now with their stimulus package(s).

rather than explain myself the implications of stimulus packages and how a thing called the Velocity of Money impacts this greatly, and how and why central banks do what they do to combat inflation and deflation, I put here a link to a website which I find quite useful to my own understanding/learning of all this

https://inflationdata.com/articles/2020/04/01/will-the-2-trillion-covid-19-stimulus-cause-inflation/