Do you need to vent about things COVID-19?

[Tolya Ugajin]

7 hours ago, Qie Niangao said:

Just because up until now we avoided multi-millions dead by instituting social distancing, lockdowns, etc. doesn't mean it won't happen now if folks imagine we've graduated from all those measures. What little data is available from the antibody tests seems to show that there is negligible "herd immunity" at this point -- the population is almost exactly as vulnerable as it was back in January, give or take single-digit percentages. Last I saw (and it's been a while), Sweden wasn't looking all that much better. So without a vaccine, "herd immunity" might well cost millions of American lives.

Thing is, I think governments would just stand idly by as reefer trailers filled with corpses, just like NYC at the worst of it. Seeing those Lake of the Ozarks photos, I honestly think this is more likely than not. How many governors will have the political courage to reimplement life-saving lockdowns, when subsequent waves of infection crisscross the provinces?

And should we be confident that the economy can actually survive another wave without the measures we took last time? The lockdown of non-essential workers may be what made it possible for essential workers to continue. If that protection is removed and suddenly everybody is out and about, spreading the virus, will supply chains that functioned through the first wave fail when the virus becomes so prevalent there aren't enough healthy staff to function?  It is increasingly difficult to find enough healthy workers to keep Midwestern meatpacking plants operational now; what sectors will be affected if the virus spreads unchecked?

Let's be especially morbid.

Every working age adult gets Covid.  About 0.5% of them die (that's the lethality for working age adults).

You would have absenteeism issues for a few weeks, but your meat packing plants will still run fine.  Might not be a bad idea to do what I did weeks ago - screw the TP, stock up on frozen and canned foods and things like pasta with long shelf lives and lots of ways to prepare.

It's not that there are no healthy workers available - the total confirmed cases (all ages, not just people in the workforce) is just over 1.2% of the US workforce - , it's that for a variety of reasons (fear, disruption of school/daycare, incentives not to work, etc.) lots of healthy workers are not working.

[Lyssa Greymoon]

17 minutes ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

Lethality rate for all persons (including those with underlying health conditions) for Covid is under 0.5%.

Where does that number come from?

[Tolya Ugajin]

4 minutes ago, Lyssa Greymoon said:

Where does that number come from?

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

I took their table about 1/2 way down and applied a weighted average for workforce demographics (the average retirement age in the US is 62, to I took 1/5 of the 60-69 age group).  Somewhat crude, but google doesn't cooperate when asked for just working age adults.  I have seen no data from any source that would indicate a higher percentage.

[Lyssa Greymoon]

10 minutes ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

I took their table about 1/2 way down and applied a weighted average for workforce demographics (the average retirement age in the US is 62, to I took 1/5 of the 60-69 age group).  Somewhat crude, but google doesn't cooperate when asked for just working age adults.  I have seen no data from any source that would indicate a higher percentage.

I do not understand this methodology. Is it for all persons or just working age adults? According to JHU, the case-fatality rate in the US for all persons is almost 6%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

[FairreLilette]

2 hours ago, Beth Macbain said:

Yes, you do. I'm not trying to trip you up, I'm just giving you information. 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-19/senior-shoppers-and-others-at-risk-of-coronavirus-get-special-times-at-these-stores

That is from several weeks ago, so this may have changed as restrictions have been loosened. I just checked Ralph's and Albertson's and both of them still state that they have special hours set aside for high risk populations. 

Oh, wow.  No, I didn't know and there has been absolutely no talk here.  I just go around two corners to the local markets of a private name it's not even a "chain store" for certain reasons so I can get back here quickly.

Here I'm thinking I had an original idea.  It is a good idea though.  Should I let my landlady know?  I think I should as she's very scared.  Why wouldn't she tell me this?  I just don't get her sometimes.   But, let's not get into "her" again.  Good to know though.  My only news source is internet right now.  I have no TV because I didn't want one.  I don't have any interest in TV anymore other than the shopping channels - gives away her secrets.  

Edited May 27, 2020 by FairreLilette

[Theresa Tennyson]

44 minutes ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

 For school age children, it is comparable to the lethality of measles (0.2%), which is also extremely communicable.  I'm reasonably certain that schools were open prior to a measles vaccine being available in the mid-60's.

Depends on the size of the outbreak (took me about 30 seconds to find this):

https://vaxopedia.org/2017/07/20/when-measles-epidemics-would-close-schools/

[Tolya Ugajin]

18 minutes ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

Depends on the size of the outbreak (took me about 30 seconds to find this):

https://vaxopedia.org/2017/07/20/when-measles-epidemics-would-close-schools/

Yes, they'd close during an outbreak, but they wouldn't stay closed indefinitely to prevent a possible outbreak, which is what schools are currently doing.

[Tolya Ugajin]

26 minutes ago, Lyssa Greymoon said:

I do not understand this methodology. Is it for all persons or just working age adults? According to JHU, the case-fatality rate in the US for all persons is almost 6%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Lethality climbs steeply above age 50, but is comparatively flat and low for those younger.  Per the data I sent earlier, the fatality rate is about 15% for those age 80 and above, and that age group.  But, yes, good data, particularly data that can be sliced and diced to suit, is not exactly easy to find.

And then there's the fact that the "experts" keep changing their minds on pretty much everything they say, so yesterday's data might be inaccurate by tomorrow's standards.

[FairreLilette]

1 hour ago, Luna Bliss said:

Nobody needs to die if we can help it. The government could fund businesses so they don't have to close and let go of employees -- like they do in other 1st world countries.

It appears raising the debt isn't so bad as we think it is. Here's a good program explaining it all, titled "Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Debt".  Wealthy public companies can, and are, actually lending money to the gov:

https://www.krugmantoday.com/

* you have to sign up to view this, but there is no cost.

*Cries*.  I don't know if the government will do it.  How much of a chance does America have in getting the government to fund businesses while we wait in limbo for 'them' to do something? 

Many don't want to take a loan when they have no business so essentially the 2 Trillion Dollar CARES Act has not actually even been spent as it contains loans for businesses.  I hate when articles state "the U.S. spent 2 Trillion"...no it hasn't as many did not take on those loans so part of that "money" is in limbo too, it's not all spent.  

Edited May 27, 2020 by FairreLilette

[Theresa Tennyson]

27 minutes ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

Lethality climbs steeply above age 50, but is comparatively flat and low for those younger.  Per the data I sent earlier, the fatality rate is about 15% for those age 80 and above, and that age group.  But, yes, good data, particularly data that can be sliced and diced to suit, is not exactly easy to find.

And then there's the fact that the "experts" keep changing their minds on pretty much everything they say, so yesterday's data might be inaccurate by tomorrow's standards.

But an untrained amateur making projections using the same information? Solid.

[FairreLilette]

39 minutes ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

Yes, they'd close during an outbreak, but they wouldn't stay closed indefinitely to prevent a possible outbreak, which is what schools are currently doing.

My youngest sister is a school teacher.  The school teachers were on strike last year or so for more pay and smaller classrooms.  They won the increase in salary.  The smaller classrooms...I don't know what's occurring with that right now but there has been school over-crowding in L.A. County for at least the past 30 to 40 years and school over-crowding issues have almost always been a part of L.A. County with little relief.   Article from April 2020.  So, how many children in order to have social distancing?  Or just let the kids go back to school as they were?  That's not going to happen in L.A. County, Toyla, as social distancing needs to be decided here first.   The population of some counties (not the whole State of California) in Southern California are near those of some countries for just what is considered our small little counties; not so little.

In addition to overcrowding, class sizes have been growing in recent years, which presents substantial challenges to the teachers facing a large and diverse classroom every single day. The National Education Association states that classes that held 28 students a few short years ago are now holding as many as 40 students or more. That growth puts additional strain on teachers, who must plug more hours to keep up with more students. Some teachers are also concerned for student safety in such large classrooms.  

https://www.publicschoolreview.com/blog/10-challenges-for-the-los-angeles-unified-school-district

Edited May 27, 2020 by FairreLilette

[Luna Bliss]

48 minutes ago, FairreLilette said:

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

Nobody needs to die if we can help it. The government could fund businesses so they don't have to close and let go of employees -- like they do in other 1st world countries.

It appears raising the debt isn't so bad as we think it is. Here's a good program explaining it all, titled "Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Debt".  Wealthy public companies can, and are, actually lending money to the gov:

https://www.krugmantoday.com/

* you have to sign up to view this, but there is no cost.

*Cries*.  I don't know if the government will do it.  How much of a chance does America have in getting the government to fund businesses while we wait in limbo for 'them' to do something? 

Many don't want to take a loan when they have no business so essentially the 2 Trillion Dollar CARES Act has not actually even been spent as it contains loans for businesses.  I hate when articles state "the U.S. spent 2 Trillion"...no it hasn't as many did not take on those loans so part of that "money" is in limbo too, it's not all spent.  

I fear America may be going down     Perhaps not for a few years though, so enjoy your life while you can. Treasure the moments.

[FairreLilette]

14 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

I fear America may be going down     Perhaps not for a few years though, so enjoy your life while you can. Treasure the moments.

I'm fearing the whole world, Luna, like a domino effect could go down.  *cries*  I'm reaching my limit here of what I can cope with.  But, I do agree with Toyla in that the news is ever changing.  There was promise of a medicine and then about three days later another article came out and said the virus mutated into something else.  This was about two weeks ago.

I need to find a hobby soon that I can do so I don't go nuts from the stress of very erratic news.  I'm tired of the media bs.  It just changes too, too much.  

Hobbies...I'm working on it.  I bought a pattern to sew something but haven't started yet.  It may help my sanity from COVID-19 insanity.  

But, I fear a domino effect for much of the world.   

[Luna Bliss]

2 minutes ago, FairreLilette said:

24 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

I fear America may be going down     Perhaps not for a few years though, so enjoy your life while you can. Treasure the moments.

I'm fearing the whole world, Luna, like a domino effect could go down.  *cries*  I'm reaching my limit here of what I can cope with.  But, I do agree with Toyla in that the news is ever changing.  There was promise of a medicine and then about three days later another article came out and said the virus mutated into something else.  This was about two weeks ago.

I need to find a hobby soon that I can do so I don't go nuts from the stress of very erratic news.  I'm tired of the media bs.  It just changes too, too much.  

Hobbies...I'm working on it.  I bought a pattern to sew something but haven't started yet.  It may help my sanity from COVID-19 insanity.  

But, I fear a domino effect for much of the world.   

Yes I've spent some time of late learning more about the economy, something I've not really been too interested in...money.  And I don't like what I'm discovering  

New hobbies...sounds good.  I have a huge virtual world job that is sorely neglected atm...need to get back in there...creativity can be healing.

[Kitteh Whiskers]

15 hours ago, HGJHGJHJJHJG said:

Fuerza Kat...

Todo va a mejorar. Es solo un bache.

Gracias ❤️ Por lo pronto va mejor. Espero que continue asi

[Dano Seale]

"Coronavirus deaths in US top 100,000"

...and yet, your President is blackmailing the Governor of NC by threatening to move the Republican annual conference elsewhere if he doesn't agree to allow 100,000 people to attend. The mind boggles sometimes!

[Luna Bliss]

14 minutes ago, Dano Seale said:

"Coronavirus deaths in US top 100,000"

...and yet, your President is blackmailing the Governor of NC by threatening to move the Republican annual conference elsewhere if he doesn't agree to allow 100,000 people to attend. The mind boggles sometimes!

It's really hard to know just what he's trying to do...    

[Dano Seale]

3 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

It's really hard to know just what he's trying to do..

...Shut social media platforms down now I just read on the BBC, because twitter put 'fact check' links on his tweets!  😂🙄

[Lyssa Greymoon]

14 minutes ago, Dano Seale said:

"Coronavirus deaths in US top 100,000"

...and yet, your President is blackmailing the Governor of NC by threatening to move the Republican annual conference elsewhere if he doesn't agree to allow 100,000 people to attend. The mind boggles sometimes!

I have a hard time seeing the downside of stuffing 100,000 Republicans into an enclosed arena right now.

[Sylvia Tamalyn]

6 minutes ago, Dano Seale said:

...Shut social media platforms down now I just read on the BBC, because twitter put 'fact check' links on his tweets!  😂🙄

He's hilarious to follow on Twitter, if you like reading the tweets of a raging toddler. 

[FairreLilette]

7 minutes ago, Lyssa Greymoon said:

I have a hard time seeing the downside of stuffing 100,000 Republicans into an enclosed arena right now.

So do they.

Edited May 28, 2020 by FairreLilette

[FairreLilette]

4 hours ago, Dano Seale said:

and yet, your President

Why is he "our" President?  The Electoral College votes for the President of the United States.  The popular vote for the president doesn't even count.  We just live here and he is the President but none of us here voted for him unless they are in the Electoral College.  A better way to say it is "the President of the U.S".  Yes, he's the President but he's not mine.  Haven't you heard of the movement in California regarding Trump saying 'he's not our President'?   Meaning the people in California?  Well, not all people in California say this or protest the President of the United States but many do and carry signs saying "He's Not Our President".   However, this "He's Not Our President" does not have anything to do with COVID-19.  It started way, way before.

United States Electoral College

Description

The Electoral College is a body of electors established by the United States Constitution, which forms every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president of the United States.   The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and an absolute majority of at least 270 electoral votes is required to win the election. Wikipedia

Edited May 28, 2020 by FairreLilette

[Drakonadrgora Darkfold]

My rant about covid-19 it's not turning people into zombies.. I can't use all my zombie killing skill from the games I played...

[Tolya Ugajin]

2 hours ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

But an untrained amateur making projections using the same information? Solid.

lol it's the best we can do, but unless the underlying data is terribly wrong, it's probably not too far off.  I've not seen a single report that puts overall lethality above the 2-3% range, with the bulk of that being fairly old people.  It might change with the addition of undernourished people and those without good access to health care in the 3rd world, of course.

[Dano Seale]

11 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

We just live here and he is the President but none of us here voted for him unless they are in the Electoral College.

I didn't vote for the Queen, prime minister or anyone in Government...but they're "our Queen/prime minister/Government". They're the "leader's" of our Countries, which makes them "ours"!
What each individual decides to call them matter's not one bit in the grand scope of things!