Do you need to vent about things COVID-19?

[Tolya Ugajin]

12 hours ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

So, your theory is that all economic activity is interchangeable in the short term and all jobs and sources of income can be converted from one segment of the economy to another in a fraction of a year? One of the cutter-drapers in our costume shop is retiring in December - would you like her job?

Where you pulled that out of your behind is beyond me.  You laid out a hypothetical of no lockdowns in the US at all but that would still mean a loss of imports and exports, along with a nonsensical tangent about retail.  I used actual data to estimate economic impact of that scenario.  Most jobs being effected by the lockdowns have nothing to do with import or export - they are service jobs primarily - restaurants, bars, travel, and retail being the hardest hit sectors.  Under the scenario YOU laid out, those would all still be open.  International travel is accounted for under imports and exports (which I assessed).  There would likely be some dropoff restaurant and bar business, but would it be dramatic?  Probably not - and, just as people have done anyway, take out and delivery would make up for a substantial amount of lost dine-in.

I cited neither jobs as interchangeable nor incomes.  I did indeed point out that PRODUCTS can be interchanged.  Germany isn't sending us cars?  No problem, US factories can indeed easily ramp up to accommodate the loss of those imports.  France, Italy, Spain, etc. are no longer sending us wine?  Oh dear, good thing China and Japan are no longer buying California wines, so there is more domestic wine available than before to counteract the loss of imports.  Note, in my assessment, I didn't actually discount the economic effects due to such product substitution, I merely pointed out that they would happen.  The bottom line was, with the domestic economy not locked down, the impact of lost exports and imports that we've actually experienced (using real live data you could google the same way I did) is some but not tragic job losses.  Oh, and I should have pointed out, some of those lost imports and exports are certainly caused by domestic demand and production being shut down, so, guess what, there would be even less job loss.

If you want to engage in facile arguments and misleading claims, by all means, find someone else to chat with.

[Theresa Tennyson]

43 minutes ago, Tolya Ugajin said:

Where you pulled that out of your behind is beyond me.  You laid out a hypothetical of no lockdowns in the US at all but that would still mean a loss of imports and exports, along with a nonsensical tangent about retail.  I used actual data to estimate economic impact of that scenario.  Most jobs being effected by the lockdowns have nothing to do with import or export - they are service jobs primarily - restaurants, bars, travel, and retail being the hardest hit sectors.  Under the scenario YOU laid out, those would all still be open.  International travel is accounted for under imports and exports (which I assessed).  There would likely be some dropoff restaurant and bar business, but would it be dramatic?  Probably not - and, just as people have done anyway, take out and delivery would make up for a substantial amount of lost dine-in.

I cited neither jobs as interchangeable nor incomes.  I did indeed point out that PRODUCTS can be interchanged.  Germany isn't sending us cars?  No problem, US factories can indeed easily ramp up to accommodate the loss of those imports.  France, Italy, Spain, etc. are no longer sending us wine?  Oh dear, good thing China and Japan are no longer buying California wines, so there is more domestic wine available than before to counteract the loss of imports.  Note, in my assessment, I didn't actually discount the economic effects due to such product substitution, I merely pointed out that they would happen.  The bottom line was, with the domestic economy not locked down, the impact of lost exports and imports that we've actually experienced (using real live data you could google the same way I did) is some but not tragic job losses.  Oh, and I should have pointed out, some of those lost imports and exports are certainly caused by domestic demand and production being shut down, so, guess what, there would be even less job loss.

If you want to engage in facile arguments and misleading claims, by all means, find someone else to chat with.

I admit, I misread your post somewhat about substitutions. However, your reply had a major problem: You seem to think that you can predict hard numbers using percentages and charts without taking into account unexpected problems. You probably have a background in abstract long-duration planning. (I should also point out that you've been complaining about "inaccurate predictions" for virus deaths, and those are by people who actually have experience in these fields.)

I have a background that involves knowing about real-life system failures - things like building collapses, fires, shipwrecks, etc. Most of these problems can't be predicted with charts and percentages - they usually involve a chain of events springing from one tiny problem. A professional flight crew accidentally flew a Lockheed L-1011 into the Everglades because they were distracted by a burnt-out indicator light, for instance.

Economic downturns work the same way - the economic effects can be much greater than you'd think by just looking at the event sparking the downturn. With the current situation its' interesting to note that job losses aren't that closely associated with the strictness of lockdowns in many areas.

Things are much more complicated than they seem at first. Your understanding of the auto industry is rather archaic. There aren't really "German" or "Japanese" or "American" cars anymore. Volkswagens mostly come from Mexico; meanwhile, some Hondas have more US content than a number of "American" cars. They all depend on supplier chains from all over the world that can't be changed quickly. If any of that chain gets disrupted, cars don't get built. As far as oil goes, the reason that the United States is both an oil exporter and an oil importer is that, ironically enough, most American refineries can't refine American crude oil. It's a different weight and sulfur level than the refineries were built for and they can't change quickly and economically.

Also, overseas trade isn't a situation where everyone in America spends 12% of their lives exporting things. Some people have no involvement; some are completely dependent on it. And, more to the point, other people are completely dependent on those people and so on. That's why I brought up retail. It's an extremely important sector that also has serious weaknesses in today's economy and can be badly damaged by outside forces. A declining store chain doesn't shed 2% of their workforce every year until the last three people are laid off; a failure will suddenly put a lot of people out of work.

[Kitteh Whiskers]

I didn't read any previous comments so I can't say anything about that.

Since this is a Vent about Covid post, I will now express a few things. My Rl has been battling this horrible virus for about a week now, and it just hit me today how bad it really is. I've been crying on and off. We talk everyday, up until today. I'm scared, I'm worried but I'm trying not to lose hope

[Gatogateau]

1 hour ago, Katt Dragoone said:

I didn't read any previous comments so I can't say anything about that.

Since this is a Vent about Covid post, I will now express a few things. My Rl has been battling this horrible virus for about a week now, and it just hit me today how bad it really is. I've been crying on and off. We talk everyday, up until today. I'm scared, I'm worried but I'm trying not to lose hope

I'm so sorry to read this. And there's no need to read the previous posts to make this kind of statement.

I'm not familiar with the abbreviation RI, but I can understand that this is an important person to you. I wish there were something I could say that would make a difference, but of course there isn't. But my heart breaks reading of these personal stories. So please know you've been heard.

[Gatogateau]

Oh for the love of...

So, half of Fox News viewers believe that Bill Gates wants to use coronavirus vaccines to track you, according to a new poll. We really do have some of the dumbest people on the planet.

[Gatogateau]

Article link https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/22/coronavirus-update-us/

Sigh. There is no good solution. Maybe there are better ones but... sigh. 24 states is just about half of them, after all.

[roseelvira]

.

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by roseelvira

[roseelvira]

.

Edited May 23, 2020 by roseelvira

[Sylvia Tamalyn]

21 minutes ago, Gatogateau said:

Oh for the love of...

So, half of Fox News viewers believe that Bill Gates wants to use coronavirus vaccines to track you, according to a new poll. We really do have some of the dumbest people on the planet.

 

It's going to be hard to narrow down the field for Darwin Award winners this year. 

 

[Qie Niangao]

54 minutes ago, Sylvia Tamalyn said:

It's going to be hard to narrow down the field for Darwin Award winners this year. 

So many Participation trophies!

Meanwhile: The dictate that places of worship must open or else. Imagine being clergy in a church with members eager to pray the gay virus away. Were you really called to give your life to the president's re-election?

[Kitteh Whiskers]

On 5/22/2020 at 9:03 PM, Katt Dragoone said:

I didn't read any previous comments so I can't say anything about that.

Since this is a Vent about Covid post, I will now express a few things. My Rl has been battling this horrible virus for about a week now, and it just hit me today how bad it really is. I've been crying on and off. We talk everyday, up until today. I'm scared, I'm worried but I'm trying not to lose hope

Update:

I finally talked to my SO, he's ok...ish. Tired, weak, etc. I think he'll pull thru. Really hope a vaccine is made soon tho. I hate thinking about all those other people suffering that are in much worse condition 😕

[Selene Gregoire]

1 minute ago, Katt Dragoone said:

Update:

I finally talked to my SO, he's ok...ish. Tired, weak, etc. I think he'll pull thru. Really hope a vaccine is made soon tho. I hate thinking about all those other people suffering that are in much worse condition 😕

[Gatogateau]

3 hours ago, Katt Dragoone said:

Update:

I finally talked to my SO, he's ok...ish. Tired, weak, etc. I think he'll pull thru. Really hope a vaccine is made soon tho. I hate thinking about all those other people suffering that are in much worse condition 😕

Oh, whew! Thanks for the update. Fingers crossed that he gets better soon. 

[Gatogateau]

Well, here's a new one. In my email, from a SL group announcement:

There is a popular scam going around Second Life right now from secondlife:///app/agent/2e48f17e-41a5-434d-a052-1a36b8e6adb6/about offering a LeLUTKA Bento Head-UNISEX- [GIFT] gift.

DO NOT ACCEPT THIS INVENTORY OFFER. It is a HUD that takes your Lindens. During this "Stay at Home" time and many "gifts" going around PLEASE remember not to click on any links that have not been approved by a moderator and do NOT accept any free inventory offers. Please be wise during these times.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Gatogateau

[Kitteh Whiskers]

58 minutes ago, Gatogateau said:

Oh, whew! Thanks for the update. Fingers crossed that he gets better soon. 

Thank you so much. Fingers crossed 🥰

[BeautifulXu]

On 5/22/2020 at 12:32 PM, Silent Mistwalker said:

What the? We aren't restricted from going outside. 😲That is not what stay at home means. It means don't leave home unnecessarily. You can be outside in the fresh air and sunshine. You can take a walk and do other thigs outside. Just don't leave home unless you have to.

in NY they're telling you to stay inside. Kids too.

[Silent Mistwalker]

2 hours ago, BeautifulXu said:

in NY they're telling you to stay inside. Kids too.

Most of us don't live in NY.

[LittleMe Jewell]

17 hours ago, Gatogateau said:

Well, here's a new one. In my email, from a SL group announcement:

There is a popular scam going around Second Life right now from secondlife:///app/agent/2e48f17e-41a5-434d-a052-1a36b8e6adb6/about offering a LeLUTKA Bento Head-UNISEX- [GIFT] gift.

DO NOT ACCEPT THIS INVENTORY OFFER. It is a HUD that takes your Lindens. During this "Stay at Home" time and many "gifts" going around PLEASE remember not to click on any links that have not been approved by a moderator and do NOT accept any free inventory offers. Please be wise during these times.

The stupid part of that is the misinformation.  An SL item cannot take your money unless you are dumb enough to answer YES to the 'Can I take your money?' pop-up question.

[LittleMe Jewell]

3 hours ago, BeautifulXu said:

On 5/22/2020 at 10:32 AM, Silent Mistwalker said:

What the? We aren't restricted from going outside. 😲That is not what stay at home means. It means don't leave home unnecessarily. You can be outside in the fresh air and sunshine. You can take a walk and do other thigs outside. Just don't leave home unless you have to.

in NY they're telling you to stay inside. Kids too.

NY is being dumb if they are actually meaning that you cannot even go out into your own yard.  Though it wouldn't be the first stupid thing they've done during this.

[Luna Bliss]

1 minute ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

NY is being dumb if they are actually meaning that you cannot even go out into your own yard.  Though it wouldn't be the first stupid thing they've done during this.

Perhaps she means the city, where there are no yards to speak of.

[Gatogateau]

18 minutes ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

The stupid part of that is the misinformation.  An SL item cannot take your money unless you are dumb enough to answer YES to the 'Can I take your money?' pop-up question.

Yeah, and there are plenty of people that dumb. Agreed, the warning should have stated "and you have to click", which it kind of did but should have been more clear.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Gatogateau

[Gatogateau]

And... yay, holiday? I get an email summary of The Washington Post's current headlines. Sure, you can argue that WaPo has liberal leanings, so much so that I frequently get scorn laughs for using them as a resource by the Trumpers, which is silly, but whatevs. Today these were the headings in the email. I scanned them. Got really depressed. Clicked on none of them and continued to post in the "peeve" thread that my ongoing peeve is people. 

[Amina Sopwith]

[Fauve Aeon]

13 minutes ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

NY is being dumb if they are actually meaning that you cannot even go out into your own yard.  Though it wouldn't be the first stupid thing they've done during this.

In the 10 point plan, provisions for ‘when in public, when using public transport and when outdoors’ are all outlined so I’m assuming those are all places they allow/expect people to be? Unless some new order has supplanted this policy?  Religious gatherings and Memorial Day gatherings limited to 10 people or less, and wear a mask in public.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/new-york-state-pause

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home

 

[Cindy Evanier]

5 minutes ago, Amina Sopwith said:

But before you go on the tour you need your eye test