Do you need to vent about things COVID-19?

[Luna Bliss]

[Drayke Newall]

1 hour ago, Amanda Dallin said:

Keep in mind that mitigation was never meant to save anyone from getting the virus.  The point is to "flatten the curve."  The amount of space under the curve is the same which means the number of people infected is the same with or without mitigation.  The purpose is to spread the infection out over time so our medical system is not overwhelmed by the sheer numbers hitting it all at once.  It saved lives of people who would not receive treatment at all if the system had been overwhelmed as it seems to have been in Italy and other places. 

The problem is that whilst that is the case, it requires everyone following the orders to ensure that happens. At current, America appears to have flattened the curve but are now putting that at risk with all the protests going on. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2 weeks as far as infection rates in the USA as social distancing certainly isn't being conducted by protestors.

Of course what doesn't help either is a President that encourages it or as per his latest speeches, his complete lack of knowledge in confusing the situation by mentioning things like injecting people somehow with disinfectant or blasting them with harmful UV light. As a world leader he should only be providing facts in his briefings not ridiculous theories like these or his malaria drug failure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8251605/Donald-Trump-suggests-bizarre-treatments-coronavirus-including-injections.html

Or Trumps top economic advisor suggesting everyone goes back to work with a space suit on.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8251353/Trumps-economic-adviser-suggests-putting-everybody-space-outfit-open-economy.html

55 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

In a few weeks, we should have enough data (probably from outside the US because our testing is still abysmal) about total infection rate to start projecting whether we'll hit herd immunity before a vaccine arrives. It will take longer to determine how long individual immunity lasts.

Whilst I certainly hope immunity can happen I think a lot of people are relying too much on it and thinking immunity is a sure thing. Nothing of the sort has been proven yet and even the top of the medical fields are saying there is no evidence to suggest that it is possible and results showing that reinfection may be possible. The main reason governments have locked down the countries is precisely because there is no evidence to say as much and why they are waiting for a vaccine. Despite the fact a vaccine isn't at all proven possible as yet.

Where the other issue is, is mutation. Whilst it may appear to be slow at mutating at the moment, the virus struck at the end of the northern hemispheres flu season which means that the risk of cross mutation between various coronavirus' such as the flu was minimal. That is not the case in the southern hemisphere or colder areas and therefore still runs a greater risk of someone catching both and cross mutation happening meaning all that immunity talk goes out the window. There are still way to many unknowns about the virus to claim that immunity is a thing.

22 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Many of those arguing to reopen things will do everything they can to prevent themselves from infecting others, and are well aware of the risks they take themselves.

That's all well and good in theory, however practically in most situations it would be impossible. Social distancing in some business etc is just not possible.

Economically, it is also a little fuzzy as far as what would have been more impactful to the economy. Sure America have spent trillions of dollars while in lockdown (mainly to people that didn't need it mind you), however giving the virus free range without lockdown could in theory have proven just as much if not more troublesome for the economy. If an entire business gets sick from the virus they don't open for say 1 month due to people being infected. That business not only looses money but also has to pay sick leave, meaning financially the business itself is just as worse off as it would have been in lockdown.

Additionally, it would mean a higher death count which even at what was predicted to be the lowest 200,000 would cause far more fear to the populace than whatever fearmongering the media has done as most citizens current justification for returning to work is that "its not even as bad as the flu death rate". This would mean further panic buying, increased people staying at home irrespective of whether an order was in place etc.

Whilst locking down and enforcing social distancing may have an economic impact, if they are followed it can lead to a better outcome where the country can reopen quicker. Look at Australia and New Zealand or even a few other EU countries. Their citizens followed the orders and are now reducing the restrictions and are potentially looking at getting back to work quicker and with an almost 0% infection rate. Granted travel will still be restricted for some time.

You also have to look very carefully at the unemployment rates and what exactly they entail. For instance, furloughing does not in most circumstances mean you are unemployed however statistically, if you apply for a benefit to cover your wages during that furlough period you will be counted as part of the unemployment rate. Furlough means you are only temporally without a job for a period only to in most circumstances have your job back after that period.

[Madelaine McMasters]

1 hour ago, Drayke Newall said:

Whilst I certainly hope immunity can happen I think a lot of people are relying too much on it and thinking immunity is a sure thing.

I agree, and those people have numbers like that 21.2% infection rate in NYC to hang their arguments on, as I did in my contrarian analysis. I expect that antibody testing will show we've got a long slog to herd immunity and we'll endure quite a few deaths to achieve it. I also think we'll improve care of the infected, lowing the mortality rate as we go forward.

1 hour ago, Drayke Newall said:

That's all well and good in theory, however practically in most situations it would be impossible. Social distancing in some business etc is just not possible.

I don't think the lock-down protestors are suggesting we reopen those business that are obvious very high risk. Some of the meat packing plants that are being closed are in states that have no stay-at-home orders in place.

1 hour ago, Drayke Newall said:

Economically, it is also a little fuzzy as far as what would have been more impactful to the economy.

A little fuzzy? It's pea soup fog!

1 hour ago, Drayke Newall said:

Sure America have spent trillions of dollars while in lockdown (mainly to people that didn't need it mind you), however giving the virus free range without lockdown could in theory have proven just as much if not more troublesome for the economy.

There may have been no way to inject so much stimulus so quickly without a lot of unintended consequences, but this is certainly looking like it was particularly poorly thought out.

Estimating COVID-19's future effect on the economy is harder than estimating its future effect on the humans who run it. Nevertheless, we have to make those estimations.

There are nearly 200 countries on Earth and 50 states within the USA, each providing little experimental sandboxes for COVID-19 policy. I sure hope we don't squander this opportunity to learn from our own, and others' mistakes.

[Jordyn McGregor]

New vent - Demon Spawn has broken her cemented in mouth brace and it needs to be either removed or fixed and her orthodonist is closed and not checking their emails so is no help at all, and emergency dentists refuse to touch someone else's work so she is slicing up her mouth and tongue with a broken wire we cannot break off or remove!  Here's hoping her orthodonist comes back on Tuesday when we go down to level 3!

[Drayke Newall]

1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I agree, and those people have numbers like that 21.2% infection rate in NYC to hang their arguments on, as I did in my contrarian analysis. I expect that antibody testing will show we've got a long slog to herd immunity and we'll endure quite a few deaths to achieve it. I also think we'll improve care of the infected, lowing the mortality rate as we go forward.

I agree. Same sort of thing goes for the lockdown free Sweden which is only going to get worse.

1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I don't think the lock-down protestors are suggesting we reopen those business that are obvious very high risk. Some of the meat packing plants that are being closed are in states that have no stay-at-home orders in place.

Well hard to say, as they mandate for the protests is for everyone to go back to work. They seem to have not even thought about these sort of things. Take Georgia (I think) for instance, they are suggesting tattoo parlours to reopen, despite social distancing not being possible as well as a high probability of contamination through the use of needles etc. Then you have Las Vegas who are suggesting going back to full open casinos where hygine (wiping down slot machines as well as issues about contamination on cards and chips) is an issue. The Mayor's excuse there is "we have always got virus' why is this one so different, completely oblivious)

1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

A little fuzzy? It's pea soup fog!

I was trying to be nice.😝

1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

There may have been no way to inject so much stimulus so quickly without a lot of unintended consequences, but this is certainly looking like it was particularly poorly thought out.

The problem with the USA stimulus is they acted as if it was just a financial crisis like 2008 whereby they thought "lets just hand out ONE $1200 cheque". In a normal recession scenario this is generally enough as it injects money back into the economy by getting people to spend that $1200 on a product in a store. Many other countries however, saw that the pandemic meant unemployment for months and complete closure of those stores that any sort of 'normal' stimulus injection would not work. As such they moved to a more appropriate method whereby they initiated a wage subsidy and varying rationalised mandates such as in Australia where for 6 months a landlord cannot eject a tenant for lack of rent payment. By doing this method it meant that whilst yes, unemployment will rise, businesses still manage whilst locked down and also can pay their staff through government subsidies and therefore don't need to fire their staff.

Without these sort of subsidies in America it has meant an enormous increase in unemployment requests, as people are not earning any money even when furloughed. The mere thought that companies wouldn't pocket any handout money meant to go to employees in America was a pipe dream that only politicians didn't see would happen.

1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Estimating COVID-19's future effect on the economy is harder than estimating its future effect on the humans who run it. Nevertheless, we have to make those estimations.

True, and is why a different tactic was necessary which many other countries instigated but America didn't (refer above). It is also easy to see how any economic stimulus at this time will effect the future economy. It would mean huge government debt needing to be paid back which will also mean a curtail to spending on needed infratructure and welfare.

America is to interested in getting back to work for the wrong reasons, those being trying to make invisible money (stocks) to keep growing so that their capitalism model doesn't flounder and to have people being paid due to them not introducing wage subsidies. The problem with this is that even if they did go back to work, sure people will get paid and life will go on, however due to their erroneous spending during this time just to keep the stock market going will mean massive issues in the future not to mention issues when America has to increase their ever expanding debt ceiling next year.

1 hour ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

There are nearly 200 countries on Earth and 50 states within the USA, each providing little experimental sandboxes for COVID-19 policy. I sure hope we don't squander this opportunity to learn from our own, and others' mistakes.

I think what should be taken from this is that we need a true independent health organisation that has the ability to move freely without needing permission to access a potential pandemic hotspot, meaning less time for cover-ups. Secondly we need to make sure that the organisation isn't corruptible and has the guts to put travel restrictions on a country immediately and without permission from the country that has the virus.

Most of all however I hope the world has seen what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket manufacturing wise and starts bringing manufacturing back to other countries.

[Mollymews]

i think that those most wanting to reopen for business are motivated by the cost to them of not being able to do business

some just come out and say it. Others get into blather like the cure is worse than the bite, more people die from the flu, ventilators don't seem to work, testing regimes don't capture the full story, lockdowns will lead to greater numbers of infections in the future, etc

of the two, I much prefer the people who just come out and say it

like a CEO of the biggest bank in NZ. He said that he wants business to resume as soon as possible. And went on to say that soon as possible to him means a plan to lock it all down, and do our best to crush the chit out it in the shortest time

we in NZ have been following the crush the chit out of it in the shortest time, plan. Next week we are going down from Level 4 to Level 3. The plan is that we will go down to Level 2 two weeks later all going well

should it go badly then the plan is to go back to Level 3 or 4. Which could happen as there are still a whole lot of NZ citizens stuck overseas in some of the worst affected areas in the world.  Level 3 means that they can come home. And there is pretty comprehensive plan for how that is going to be managed. Because we do want these people to be able to come home, sick or not

[Lyssa Greymoon]

12 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

If you came to me weighing $6T in government programs, 20% unemployment and the host of other woes we're predicted to encounter against those 20,000 lives, I'd certainly pause a long time before answering.

That's 20,000 lives as of yesterday. It's not we could get 20,000 more deaths, it's we'd already have 20,000 more deaths.

[Madelaine McMasters]

10 minutes ago, Lyssa Greymoon said:

That's 20,000 lives as of yesterday. It's not we could get 20,000 more deaths, it's we'd already have 20,000 more deaths.

I understand that, but if at the end of all this lock downs produce only 32% better mortality rate than no lock downs , Republicans will claim "See, we told you not to make the cure worse than the disease" and get considerable support.

[Madelaine McMasters]

8 hours ago, Jordan Whitt said:

New vent - Demon Spawn has broken her cemented in mouth brace and it needs to be either removed or fixed and her orthodonist is closed and not checking their emails so is no help at all, and emergency dentists refuse to touch someone else's work so she is slicing up her mouth and tongue with a broken wire we cannot break off or remove!  Here's hoping her orthodonist comes back on Tuesday when we go down to level 3!

Have you got any paraffin in the house? Dentists use that to cover sharp bits of braces. Soften a half pea sized bit and squish it over the rough spot.

[Madelaine McMasters]

1 hour ago, Mollymews said:

i think that those most wanting to reopen for business are motivated by the cost to them of not being able to do business

Yep, they're probably outnumbered by the people that want to return to their jobs and collect paychecks.

One of my neighbors owns a small business that employs mostly minorities. He's livid about the lock down. He told me he spent considerable money just before stay-at-home here, making his business safer for his employees. They're all now out of work, and government support isn't enough for most of them. He thinks they'd be safer under his watchful eye. Unfortunately he then went on to sink his argument by claiming the virus is being hyped by pharmaceutical companies to boost their share prices.

1 hour ago, Mollymews said:

we in NZ have been following the crush the chit out of it in the shortest time, plan. Next week we are going down from Level 4 to Level 3. The plan is that we will go down to Level 2 two weeks later all going well

Given what little I know of both the epidemiology and economics, yours seems the best approach to me. Unfortunately I don't think would have worked in the US. We're a nation of cowboys and cowgirls and a substantial portion of the population won't follow orders, ensuring COVID-19 persists. As the virus impacts an increasing number of "non believers" I do expect compliance to increase, but that takes time we don't have.

[Amina Sopwith]

Well, thanks to the Terry's Chocolate Orange that presides over one of the richest and most powerful countries in the world, it has become necessary for medical experts to make statements advising people not to ingest or inject disinfectant into themselves. Earlier in this thread, I noted how Boris Johnson must be feeling like he was overseeing a nation of Goreans after people responded to lockdown by asking why others were also at the supermarket or having regular visitors as part of their self-isolation. I'm now wondering if I've actually been somehow transported to the Counter Earth (petri dish) culture itself. 

[Madelaine McMasters]

7 hours ago, Drayke Newall said:

A whole bunch of stuff I agree with.

It's curious that the aggregate of the US government's actions during COVID-19 looks like Republicans poorly executing plans that have been historically the purview of the Democrats. We've got a massive injection of welfare money going to the wrong places, a massive and poorly executed effort to provide health care for everyone infected (which is eventually everyone), and ballooning debt to cover all of it.

We live in interesting times.

 

[Jordyn McGregor]

33 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Have you got any paraffin in the house? Dentists use that to cover sharp bits of braces. Soften a half pea sized bit and squish it over the rough spot.

That's what we are doing! 

[Drayke Newall]

1 minute ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

It's curious that the aggregate of the US government's actions during COVID-19 looks like Republicans poorly executing plans that have been historically the purview of the Democrats. We've got a massive injection of welfare money going to the wrong places, a massive and poorly executed effort to provide health care for everyone infected (which is eventually everyone), and ballooning debt to cover all of it.

We live in interesting times.

 

Very true. I'm curious as to what happens to those that are treated in a hospital and whether in America insurance will cover the expenses or will the government actually decide to pay for all the treatment, ventilators, drugs etc. Given America is extremely expensive for their hospital care, will citizens have a huge bill after recovering from Covid-19?

[Madelaine McMasters]

6 minutes ago, Amina Sopwith said:

Well, thanks to the Terry's Chocolate Orange that presides over one of the richest and most powerful countries in the world, it has become necessary for medical experts to make statements advising people not to ingest or inject disinfectant into themselves. Earlier in this thread, I noted how Boris Johnson must be feeling like he was overseeing a nation of Goreans after people responded to lockdown by asking why others were also at the supermarket or having regular visitors as part of their self-isolation. I'm now wondering if I've actually been somehow transported to the Counter Earth (petri dish) culture itself. 

I heard last week that Trump wanted to host a two-hour-per-day radio or TV show. If true, I think that's truly the best idea he's ever had. Showman that he is, I still can't imagine him surviving very long with that much unfiltered exposure to the American public. Maybe it's wishfulness, but there's got to be a limit to how much ignorance he can display before the base starts to wonder.

[Madelaine McMasters]

1 minute ago, Drayke Newall said:

Given America is extremely expensive for their hospital care, will citizens have a huge bill after recovering from Covid-19?

If so, you've just created a powerful voting cohort in support of nationalized health care.

[Drayke Newall]

Just now, Madelaine McMasters said:

If so, you've just created a powerful voting cohort in support of nationalized health care.

As sad as it is, given the nature of America, even if citizens did have to pay I don't think nationalised health care will ever be introduced there. To many people are opposed to it and from what I've seen will always be considering USA still doesn't have it despite it being the most expensive place for hospital care in the developed world.

[Love Zhaoying]

2 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

If so, you've just created a powerful voting cohort in support of nationalized health care.

Maddy, you're smart. Any thoughts on somehow "internalizing" a UV light or injecting disinfectant to cure COVID-19?

[Drayke Newall]

1 minute ago, Love Zhaoying said:

Maddy, you're smart. Any thoughts on somehow "internalizing" a UV light or injecting disinfectant to cure COVID-19?

For UV light I believe probes are still a thing... *Shudder*

[Love Zhaoying]

10 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I heard last week that Trump wanted to host a two-hour-per-day radio or TV show. If true, I think that's truly the best idea he's ever had. Showman that he is, I still can't imagine him surviving very long with that much unfiltered exposure to the American public. Maybe it's wishfulness, but there's got to be a limit to how much ignorance he can display before the base starts to wonder.

The daily coronavirus updates are probably that show..

[Lyssa Greymoon]

45 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I understand that, but if at the end of all this lock downs produce only 32% better mortality rate than no lock downs , Republicans will claim "See, we told you not to make the cure worse than the disease" and get considerable support.

So what's their magic number of dead bodies?

[Amina Sopwith]

18 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I heard last week that Trump wanted to host a two-hour-per-day radio or TV show. If true, I think that's truly the best idea he's ever had. Showman that he is, I still can't imagine him surviving very long with that much unfiltered exposure to the American public. Maybe it's wishfulness, but there's got to be a limit to how much ignorance he can display before the base starts to wonder.

I honestly thought we'd reached that point a very long time ago, but it appears not. 

 

[Seicher Rae]

15 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I heard last week that Trump wanted to host a two-hour-per-day radio or TV show. If true, I think that's truly the best idea he's ever had. Showman that he is, I still can't imagine him surviving very long with that much unfiltered exposure to the American public. Maybe it's wishfulness, but there's got to be a limit to how much ignorance he can display before the base starts to wonder.

Sadly, his base cannot be moved. It has weathered everything from pre-election pus*y grabbing to just royally botching the COVID thing. You can fix uneducated. You can't fix dumb.

I get your point about a radio show being a good thing, to further show off his ignorance, but unfortunately I think it would just provide even more disinformation for people to follow.

[Madelaine McMasters]

10 minutes ago, Love Zhaoying said:

Maddy, you're smart. Any thoughts on somehow "internalizing" a UV light or injecting disinfectant to cure COVID-19?

I think we should peel and filet anyone suggesting UV therapy. It's easier to flip the internals out than to get the light in. That would also expose a lot of internal surface for a good spritz of Lysol spray.

[Madelaine McMasters]

7 minutes ago, Lyssa Greymoon said:

So what's their magic number of dead bodies?

I don't know, but I suspect it's higher than mine (which I don't know either ;-).