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Future of the metaverse, and all that


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Or, where a venture capitalist thinks SL-like systems are going.

Ball is worth reading as he tries to figure out what technology to put money into. He thinks the "metaverse" is a Next Big Thing, and is trying to puzzle out how it works as a business. He's not pushing any specific technology or company at this point. He's looking hard at SL's big question - OK, we have an open world where anybody can do anything. Now what?

An interesting bit on the issue of "are you your avatar?" This references a Disney failure:

"Over time, Disney Infinity did start moving towards a more open, creation-based system. However, it still required the “player” to be a “character”, not themselves. This agency problem is significant: imagine going to Disneyland and being told you can go where you like, but you have to dress up and behave as a different character as you moved between “theme lands”. Not only does this remove the specialness of being “you” in Disneyland and the ability to be hugged by your heroes, but it doesn’t really work. Regardless of whether you want to be Spider-Man in Disneyland, you can’t web sling through the park. And in Disney Infinity, you can web sling, but it doesn’t really make sense that Spider-Man is involved in urban planning. To return to an earlier point in the essay, too, it’s both boring and odd to play a game with all your friends and all be Spider-Man; if we’re all the same, we’re no one. There’s a reason why Fortnite, Roblox, and others are so focused on personalized emotes, aesthetics, and the preservation of individuality and/or agency. Almost all of the longest running games are based on either hyper-customizable characters or those without highly specific personalities."

That's an important observation, and contrary to what used to be normal in video games. From Sonic The Hedgehog to GTA V, you picked a character and played it. But that;s not how Fortnite works. In Fortnite you're yourself. Nor is it the way SL works. This is sometimes viewed as a weakness of SL for new users, in that you're not just dropped into a mainstream character of a mainstream story. But maybe it isn't. Not in games where you can build, anyway.

Worth thinking about when asking the marketing question "What should a new SL user's first hour be like?" What should be preset, and what should be changeable? This a hard and critical problem.

"The messiness and unpredictability of creation is not only most of the fun, but entirely user-led."

OK, SL has that covered.

A nice quote on building from Marty Sklar, former head of creative for Disney theme parks:

“Detail level one is when you are standing out in the countryside and see the church steeple sticking up above the trees. Detail level two is when you enter town and are looking down the street. You can see the street, the median, the parkway strips, sidewalks, and trees. Detail level three is when you are standing on the sidewalk looking at one of the houses. You can see the character of the house, walls, roof, windows, trim, and doors. Detail level four is when you have actually walked up to the front door, grabbed the door knocker, see its detail, finish, and feel its temperature and weight as you knock on the door… most architects are pretty good at getting to level three, but here at Disney we must always get to the detail level four so we can maintain our immersive environments that our stories create”.

SL is pretty good at that. In most games, if you get too close to a minor item, the illusion fails. Often not the case in SL. It means the SL viewer has the rendering problem from hell, but that's a technology problem. The content is already there. And much of it works. You can open most doors in SL and find something interesting behind them. That's not true in most games.

"It helps when you can grow by letting your most imaginative and obsessive fans chip in."

Comments?

 

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Being surrounded by Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries is not my idea of fun. I get that it's your entertainment, but it's rather insulting to say that having no desire to be surrounded by Chipmunk-soundi

Or, where a venture capitalist thinks SL-like systems are going. The Metaverse: What It Is, Where to Find it, Who Will Build It, and Fortnite  Is Fortnite the next Metaverse? The Most Imp

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about being a character on new user sign up

the new person has to start with something. So the array of starter avatars/characters to pick from

some games we start naked with nothing and collect as we go. For a game this is ok, for a world like SL then not

a first hour/moment experience could be that the Starter Islands are in theme with the starter character picked.  Like pick a citywear outfit then the starter island is  City Starter Island. Pick a fae and Fairyland Starter Island. Pick a swimsuit and Beach Starter Island, etc etc

when do something like this then the kinda vid trailer that Luca showed in the other posts about Linden promotional advertising, would go together with these islands.  Basically what a person sees on the advert would be consistent with what they actually see when they click thru, sign up and login

 

 

 

 

 

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Wow, that's a long read and I don't really understand what some of those words regarding Metaverse means.

I'd just like a TinyLand with a whole lotta fun and parades and games and surprizes...when the user logs in...it's going to be a fun day.  If fun is not your thing, TinyLand wouldn't be for you.   

The tinies are the most adorkable things in the world and talk a bit like the chipmunks and use other creative voice-morphed voices...it's just hilarious.  TinyLand could be a No.1 hit TV show as well as have No.1 Hit songs right now if there were the marketing for it.  

As far as a Metaverse, could you break it down into simplier terms what it is first?  lol

 

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7 hours ago, Mollymews said:

what a person sees on the advert would be consistent with what they actually see when they click thru, sign up and login

yeahthat.gif.ed4e3b317a9dfd3fef3e42bd7e7f9dab.gif

For 16 years I have been trying to tell LL they need to stop being so inconsistent in all things. Maybe they will listen now?

Yeah I know... wishful thinking.

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I've read articles like this back in 2006. They weren't about how to create a Metaverse, they was more along the lines of "the Metaverse is here and what are we going to do in it". It makes me wonder how old the writer is.

Roblox is great but it will never have an audience older than twelve. Minecraft is similarly age capped. Fortnite is too complicated for kids but also not interesting for adults. It's largely locked in with teens. 

Disney will never be able to make a good Metaverse. It is too wrapped up in protecting it's intellectual property. It has a family friendly image to uphold as well.

I think we'll see companies throwing things on the wall until something sticks. From what I've seen there is no company that is too successful to fail. The race for the Metaverse is wide open. 

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3 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

If fun is not your thing, TinyLand wouldn't be for you.

Being surrounded by Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries is not my idea of fun. I get that it's your entertainment, but it's rather insulting to say that having no desire to be surrounded by Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries means I, or anyone else, doesn't like fun*. The beauty of Second Life, and something that is being discussed through multiple threads, is the diversity and all the niche interests that are able to be explored in SL. 

*...unless we get to hunt the Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries and serve them for dinner... now THAT would be fun...

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No need to reference Snow Crash, we have SL as an example of a Metaverse. Imagine if everyone on the internet used SL and  did everything normally done on the internet. That's a Metaverse that every SL user can understand.

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2 hours ago, Beth Macbain said:

Being surrounded by Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries is not my idea of fun. I get that it's your entertainment, but it's rather insulting to say that having no desire to be surrounded by Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries means I, or anyone else, doesn't like fun*. The beauty of Second Life, and something that is being discussed through multiple threads, is the diversity and all the niche interests that are able to be explored in SL. 

*...unless we get to hunt the Chipmunk-sounding tiny furries and serve them for dinner... now THAT would be fun...

Okay, that's not exactly what I meant.  I mean it's kind of non-stop fun for TinyLand.  Second Life is more a diversified day...you could have fun all day or you could have all different kinds of environments in one day as a human.  There is a saying:  "Tinies like to have fun."  And, that's pretty much what we do.  Relaxtion and poetry and performing artists we have too...but it's mostly fun related.

Second Life has fun but it is not a fun related platform...it's a bit of everything platform.  

TinyLand could be diversified too...but I'd say that might be along the line of the "games" to play in TinyLand.  It has it's own kind of diversity that is too involved to discuss if you've never encountered it.

No, don't kill my Chipmunk-sounding friends.  

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From Ball, "...the rough outlines of future solutions are often understood and, in a sense, agreed upon well in advance of the technical capacity to produce them."

That!  We were all supposed to doing everything on the "cloud" by now. Remember?  You won't even be using a computer anymore, by that initial thinking, just a keyboard, monitor and a modem. Who needs a processor and memory, right? Just go to the cloud.  I remember thinking at the unfolding of this understood future solution at the time that, hmmm, this idea is obviously a predetermined outcome by tech industry leader group-think of the moment.

This "metaverse" idea strikes me as the newest flavor of what is supposed to be (by a mutual agreement of unfaced giants) but probably won't be, not as expected, that is.  Human beings are too individualistic to be neatly techno-boxed in any kind of social sense, games, whatever, just because you want them to be or think they should be or that they want to be.  Life elected Unexpected Randomness as king long ago.  All hail the king (now get the HELL AWAY from rolling boulder, YIKES!)

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7 hours ago, Lancewae Barrowstone said:

That!  We were all supposed to doing everything on the "cloud" by now. Remember? 

That's how "mobile" mostly works. And Chromebooks. And Google's office products. And Microsoft Office 360.

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On 3/11/2020 at 10:23 AM, Bree Giffen said:

I've read articles like this back in 2006. They weren't about how to create a Metaverse, they was more along the lines of "the Metaverse is here and what are we going to do in it". It makes me wonder how old the writer is.

Roblox is great but it will never have an audience older than twelve. Minecraft is similarly age capped. Fortnite is too complicated for kids but also not interesting for adults. It's largely locked in with teens. 

Disney will never be able to make a good Metaverse. It is too wrapped up in protecting it's intellectual property. It has a family friendly image to uphold as well.

I think we'll see companies throwing things on the wall until something sticks. From what I've seen there is no company that is too successful to fail. The race for the Metaverse is wide open. 

Very protective.  In the bar we own there was a large sign showing Mickey holding a beer and a rifle --- the sign dates from WWII.  It's been there long before we evern bought the place.  Recently Disney's legal team told us to take it down.  Now it's in the store room.

Edited by Kimmi Zehetbauer
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12 hours ago, Lancewae Barrowstone said:

From Ball, "...the rough outlines of future solutions are often understood and, in a sense, agreed upon well in advance of the technical capacity to produce them."

That!  We were all supposed to doing everything on the "cloud" by now. Remember?  You won't even be using a computer anymore, by that initial thinking, just a keyboard, monitor and a modem. Who needs a processor and memory, right? Just go to the cloud.  I remember thinking at the unfolding of this understood future solution at the time that, hmmm, this idea is obviously a predetermined outcome by tech industry leader group-think of the moment.

This "metaverse" idea strikes me as the newest flavor of what is supposed to be (by a mutual agreement of unfaced giants) but probably won't be, not as expected, that is.  Human beings are too individualistic to be neatly techno-boxed in any kind of social sense, games, whatever, just because you want them to be or think they should be or that they want to be.  Life elected Unexpected Randomness as king long ago.  All hail the king (now get the HELL AWAY from rolling boulder, YIKES!)

And if your connection craps out.....no computing. Try to pry my comp from my hands.

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9 hours ago, Digit Gears said:

Ah, good ol tinies

They've been a part of SL for so long, I think they even predated furry avatars.

I remember seeing them back when you had to pay 10 bucks to make a basic SL account. I wonder where they all hang out now a days.

There is Raglan Shire (considered "home" to many tinies), IOW (Isle of Wyrms) (popular - lots of games), Small Talk (very popular group with mixed bag everything), and Dinkie, Tiny & Titchie Commune & Dance club as some of the main groups to get you started.   There is also Dinkies group to join if you are Dinkie.  

Come on down.  IM me if you want to go on my free Easter Bunny hunt.  I won't be selling the bunnies, so grab some for free!  I have one boy Easter Bunny too!  

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On 3/11/2020 at 4:46 PM, FairreLilette said:

Okay, that's not exactly what I meant.  I mean it's kind of non-stop fun for TinyLand.  Second Life is more a diversified day...you could have fun all day or you could have all different kinds of environments in one day as a human.  There is a saying:  "Tinies like to have fun."  And, that's pretty much what we do.  Relaxtion and poetry and performing artists we have too...but it's mostly fun related.

Second Life has fun but it is not a fun related platform...it's a bit of everything platform.  

TinyLand could be diversified too...but I'd say that might be along the line of the "games" to play in TinyLand.  It has it's own kind of diversity that is too involved to discuss if you've never encountered it.

No, don't kill my Chipmunk-sounding friends.  

I got several notices today from Dinkie groups about various fun, games, prizes -- and they didn't even seem to involve chipmunk voices, although they might have. Again, this already exists; you're soaking in it; you create it yourself. WHY do you want the Lindens to make it for you???

As for all the comments about the Metaverse, you do have to go back 10 or even 15 years and read the literature on this that existed way before Fortnite, and even before Second Life, and isn't just about Snowcrash.

It's helpful to read past literature, for example the book Exodus to the Virtual World by Edward Castronova published in 2008 (and his other books published around that time)- now that was 12 years ago. I remember hearing Ted speak at the conference at New York Law School which was also the venue for the first SL meet-up with Philip Rosedale, the creator, present and Cory Ondrejka  and other famous pioneer Lindens and philosophers like Richard Bartle -- now we're talking 16 years ago, ancient history!

His thesis was that people would become so addicted to virtual worlds and gaming in particular, that the National Guard would have to be sent in to haul them away from their computers and force them to work at jobs that maintain critical infrastructure like electrical power plants and food and deliveries and such. Imagine! He was the first person I heard talk about bitcoin before it was called that. He said that terms like "virtual economy" or "virtual content" would lose their descriptors in 10 years because all economy would be virtual, all content, etc. etc.

I haven't seen anything from him in ages, and it's not fashionable, and now there are other people, at conferences not subsidized by game companies, that find that yes, violence in RL is linked to violent video games, something he denied and is still denied and furiously fought about, although there is more and more studies that support this. It's funny, he denies that reality, yet he could mount a thesis that people would get so busy playing Fortnite that they wouldn't keep the electricity on in their city. He and others never explained why gaming or virtuality never became a massive phenomenon -- yet social media did.

I remember we went out to an outdoor cafe -- it was in September -- and we were sitting with Pathfinder Linden (John Lester) who had on this SL necklace which the Lindens sold then, like swag. And there were tourists from Florida or something, and Pathfinder, sounding like the member of some cult or secret society, told these tourists who asked about the hand-eye icon that few were in on this secret now, but soon the entire world would know about it and be in it! That was how these virtuality zealots talked about SL back in the day. Philip confidently said that all the office buildings in NYC would be empty, because there'd be no use for them, because everything would be virtualized and be on a 3D Internet, which would be based in SL and similar platforms. It was taken for granted that the 3D Internet would be here any day, and I first saw the "Internet of Things" proto-typed in SL by I believe Yoz Linden -- and again, this was 15 years ago. I could go on and on. There were these enormous conferences with thousands of people coming to buy into the virtual world craze of 2006-2007. One year it was even at the Jacob Javits center next to Toy Fair, the biggest industry expo. 

And now, Toys 'R Us is closed, Internet-tied toys didn't take off, and the entrepreneur who used to run those big virtual world conferences -- Chris Sherman -- morphed to augmented reality, and other kinds of things because it was a "virtual world winter" it was said. 

Google even ran a virtual world for awhile called "Lively" that died and went to the Google graveyard with other products much touted like Google Plus.

I see some of these people I have kept up with as friends over the years sold off their virtual reality businesses and got into other things like SEO or streaming music or who knows what. Corey Linden works at Facebook as VP of engineering now, you know? A Naval officer who once worked at NSA, who was CTO at LL and left over a disagreement with Philip, evidently related to whether the entire thing should be open-sourced or just the viewer. There's a staggering amount of history. The people who have worked at SL are are responsible for its features come from some of the best companies, with the best skills, there are people from IBM or Microsoft or whatever. A former Linden created Fair Vote which is about lobbying ranked voting which is now popular and even implemented (not something I support).

The point is, the Metaverse came and went, and left in its wake people who know make it easier for you to see just the cats you want to see on Facebook or Twitter, not other cats.

It is now ramping up for another "Virtual World Spring" and round of wonderfulness, after the VR goggles thing tanked? Oh, I don't know. I don't think so? The coronavirus pandemic might make it seem as if now SL has found its time. The things that make people stay home or need to seek entertainment (there are more movie goers in a depression) or need remote meetings online may give it a bump, but the tether to real life is strong. If people lose jobs or have to tend the sick or be sick or lose property or homes, they are less available for online life, not more.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I got several notices today from Dinkie groups about various fun, games, prizes -- and they didn't even seem to involve chipmunk voices, although they might have. Again, this already exists; you're soaking in it; you create it yourself. WHY do you want the Lindens to make it for you???

Prokofy, I tried to tell you in the other thread that first of all you didn't read the whole 'other' thread.  I brought up TinyLand as someone remarked on the market share of Roblox and how LL and their marketing needs to compete with Roblox which has nearly a billion users or something like that.   

Also, I wanted to be a Dinkie, but as a side plus which I did not know about, I got rid of my lag drag from the high polygon mesh human avatars.

If you want to talk about Dinkies and TinyLand, as it relates to the marketshare of Roblox, you could IM me inworld.

I think the future of the metaverse doesn't need another human avatar quest game...there are already a lot of those.  TinyLand is something different.

p.s.  The Chipmunk-sounding voices come from one entertainer who has put together covers of songs using her voice and the voice of the tinies which sound like The Chipmunks.  Keeba Tammas is her name and she is quite a talent!    She does live shows along with pre-recorded "tiny" voices because tinies 'are' her band and some of the tinies in her band take a lead on a song as well which is morphed into sounding pretty much along the lines of The Chipmunks.    Plus, gestures have been made wherein some of them sound a bit like the famous Chipmunks.  

Edit to Add:  Regarding FB in your post above.  I think FB has more market share because it's free.   SL Merchants have their presence on FB which apparently is helpful to those particular merchants because FB is a kind of Marketplace albeit (not free) for a business selling rl goods.  And, maybe even not free for some SL merchants as you have to pay to "boost" your posts.  But, for socializing, it's free.

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On 3/12/2020 at 1:39 PM, Lancewae Barrowstone said:

That!  We were all supposed to doing everything on the "cloud" by now. Remember?  You won't even be using a computer anymore, by that initial thinking, just a keyboard, monitor and a modem. Who needs a processor and memory, right? Just go to the cloud.  I remember thinking at the unfolding of this understood future solution at the time that, hmmm, this idea is obviously a predetermined outcome by tech industry leader group-think of the moment.

Aside from any kind of world or game as the future of the metaverse, I think "the cloud" thing is the core of the future.  

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10 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

As for all the comments about the Metaverse, you do have to go back 10 or even 15 years and read the literature on this that existed way before Fortnite, and even before Second Life, and isn't just about Snowcrash.

It's helpful to read past literature, for example the book Exodus to the Virtual World by Edward Castronova published in 2008 (and his other books published around that time)- now that was 12 years ago. I remember hearing Ted speak at the conference at New York Law School which was also the venue for the first SL meet-up with Philip Rosedale, the creator, present and Cory Ondrejka  and other famous pioneer Lindens and philosophers like Richard Bartle -- now we're talking 16 years ago, ancient history!

His thesis was that people would become so addicted to virtual worlds and gaming in particular, that the National Guard would have to be sent in to haul them away from their computers and force them to work at jobs that maintain critical infrastructure like electrical power plants and food and deliveries and such. Imagine! He was the first person I heard talk about bitcoin before it was called that. He said that terms like "virtual economy" or "virtual content" would lose their descriptors in 10 years because all economy would be virtual, all content, etc. etc.

...Philip confidently said that all the office buildings in NYC would be empty, because there'd be no use for them, because everything would be virtualized and be on a 3D Internet, which would be based in SL and similar platforms. It was taken for granted that the 3D Internet would be here any day, and I first saw the "Internet of Things" proto-typed in SL by I believe Yoz Linden -- and again, this was 15 years ago. I could go on and on. There were these enormous conferences with thousands of people coming to buy into the virtual world craze of 2006-2007. One year it was even at the Jacob Javits center next to Toy Fair, the biggest industry expo. 

...The point is, the Metaverse came and went, and left in its wake people who know make it easier for you to see just the cats you want to see on Facebook or Twitter, not other cats.

I think it's an interesting discussion. I would note that just because something seems not to have caught on now, doesn't mean it won't in the future (there are numerous such cases in history). I personally do believe that one day virtual worlds will become more acceptable and even perhaps the norm. Perhaps not in a way we can currently envision (even to the extent we hook our brains up to it for complete immersion - that is not outside the realms of possibility...).

However, I think that it might take 2 or more generations though to move towards that, I don't see it happening in my lifetime. But the children growing up now, who are way more accepting of tech, and for example being in virtual worlds in terms of games,... well I imagine their children will be even more so. Who knows where technology will be in 50, 80, even 100 years. I don't think we can imagine it. So I say it's possible.

Perhaps virtual world living is just currently ahead of it's time. People may look back in history and hail all the Second Lifers who supported and championed SL as one of the first 'primitive' (from their point of view) virtual worlds in the 'early days', they may see residents as forward thinking for their time lol! You never know;) Your name may go down in history one day😄

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57 minutes ago, Evangeline Arcadia said:

Perhaps virtual world living is just currently ahead of it's time. People may look back in history and hail all the Second Lifers who supported and championed SL as one of the first 'primitive' (from their point of view) virtual worlds in the 'early days', they may see residents as forward thinking for their time lol! You never know;) Your name may go down in history one day😄

Remember Webvan? (1998-2001) Order online, delivery within hours? People liked the service, but it was too expensive to operate. It was laughed at back then. But the people behind it went quietly to work on the problems of fast delivery from a big catalog, developed Kiva Robotics to automate fulfillment centers, were acquired by Amazon, and now almost everything has overnight delivery.

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7 hours ago, FairreLilette said:

Prokofy, I tried to tell you in the other thread that first of all you didn't read the whole 'other' thread.  I brought up TinyLand as someone remarked on the market share of Roblox and how LL and their marketing needs to compete with Roblox which has nearly a billion users or something like that.   

Also, I wanted to be a Dinkie, but as a side plus which I did not know about, I got rid of my lag drag from the high polygon mesh human avatars.

If you want to talk about Dinkies and TinyLand, as it relates to the marketshare of Roblox, you could IM me inworld.

I think the future of the metaverse doesn't need another human avatar quest game...there are already a lot of those.  TinyLand is something different.

p.s.  The Chipmunk-sounding voices come from one entertainer who has put together covers of songs using her voice and the voice of the tinies which sound like The Chipmunks.  Keeba Tammas is her name and she is quite a talent!    She does live shows along with pre-recorded "tiny" voices because tinies 'are' her band and some of the tinies in her band take a lead on a song as well which is morphed into sounding pretty much along the lines of The Chipmunks.    Plus, gestures have been made wherein some of them sound a bit like the famous Chipmunks.  

Edit to Add:  Regarding FB in your post above.  I think FB has more market share because it's free.   SL Merchants have their presence on FB which apparently is helpful to those particular merchants because FB is a kind of Marketplace albeit (not free) for a business selling rl goods.  And, maybe even not free for some SL merchants as you have to pay to "boost" your posts.  But, for socializing, it's free.

I read the other thread, and read about Roblox, which I don't think you can compare to SL. The reason Roblox has a billion users is that it has a built-in "things to do". SL doesn't have that. Most people can't make their own fun, and it's not a slam on them, why should they have to? Most entertainment in life is made by companies, not by you. 

SL is free, too. 

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4 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I read the other thread, and read about Roblox, which I don't think you can compare to SL. The reason Roblox has a billion users is that it has a built-in "things to do". SL doesn't have that. Most people can't make their own fun, and it's not a slam on them, why should they have to? Most entertainment in life is made by companies, not by you. 

SL is free, too. 

I never compared SL to Roblox...if you actually did read the thread I suggested Second Life should spin off TinyLand as a competition to Roblox.  I said a spin-off and nothing about comparing SL to Roblox.  I'm thinking about audiences that SL isn't reaching but already has the content for.

A lot of tiny avatars (not all) can use a lot of the old non-bento animations (dances, AO's).  Plus, there is less lag in TinyLand as it is now as a tiny avatar may have around 15,000 triangles whilst a human mesh avatar has around 150,000 to 200,000 (and that's just for the body and doesn't count the head or clothes), and the content is already created which rather than discard because most adult human mesh avatars don't want it, that content could be put to use and sold. 

Most tinies can use the unrigged mesh accessories for example and it might win market share as a spin-off for those who want a more lag-free virtual experience as well as younger audiences.  As far as lag-free it seems you could have 10 Dinkies to one Maitreya mesh body in triangle to triangle comparison.  But, once that Maitreya mesh body has a head and clothing, it could be about 20 Dinkies to one human mesh body in triangles to rez.  I don't have an exact triangle to triangle figure but it's worth looking in to as that is an astounding figure.  And, on Dinkies, we can complex out with mesh accessories and still not have lag.  That complexity thing is kinda bogus.  

But, I think on the horizon is a cloud first perhaps.  I don't really know.  

 

 

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