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Exchange rate is now over L$270 / US$1.00. How high will it go?

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   Shouldn't it be 'how low can it go'?

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Has anyone ever got the transaction, having selected a Limit Buy (which defaults to around 4% above the Market Rate), to actually complete?

I tried it once, got fed up after 5 weeks, cancelled the bid and bought at the Market Rate. I've never bothered since.

Afterthought:

Maybe I tried to be even greedier and selected an even higher rate than the default. I can't remember now.

Edited by Odaks

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23 minutes ago, Odaks said:

Has anyone ever got the transaction, having selected a Limit Buy (which defaults to around 4% above the Market Rate), to actually complete?

I tried it once, got fed up after 5 weeks, cancelled the bid and bought at the Market Rate. I've never bothered since.

Afterthought:

Maybe I tried to be even greedier and selected an even higher rate than the default. I can't remember now.

I believe you answered your own question. :) 

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1 minute ago, Garnet Psaltery said:

I believe you answered your own question. :) 

Not quite. Let me put my question a different way:

Has anyone ever successfully bought Linden dollars at the default Limit Buy rate?

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8 minutes ago, Odaks said:

Has anyone ever successfully bought Linden dollars at the default Limit Buy rate?

what do you mean with "default" ?

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26 minutes ago, Alwin Alcott said:

what do you mean with "default" ?

When you first open the "Buy Linden Dollars" function, you are presented with two sections - the Instant Buy (market rate) section and the Best Rate Buy (limit buy) section. The Market Rate section already has a default selection of $L 2500 inserted (the market rate value in $US shown alongside); the Limit Rate section has default values of $L 2500 and a corresponding $US value at typically around 4% higher than market  rate.

Right now the market rate is $L 2500 = $US 9.63, i.e. a rate of 260.

The Limit rate has defaulted to an offer of $L 2500 = $US 9.26, i.e. a rate of 270 (which is approx.4% higher).

You can, of course, make your own offer by changing the exchange rate value in the Instant Buy section, and chance your luck.

My question referred to sticking with the default rate offered in the Instant Buy section.

 

Edited by Odaks

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9 minutes ago, Odaks said:

My question  ...

 

must be the time of the day.. i still don't get what you mean

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1081238458_LindeX2020-02-17082605.png.be1cc00991ae1e7e37a5c0ff95225b86.png

With these current data as an example -- and assuming the market is relatively stable -- a Buy order at L$269 should fill without taxing one's patience all that much: somebody will eventually want to sell and will take the best price available. Of course the next prospective buyer to bring up this chart will see you L$269 as the new "Best selling rate" so without further information they'd choose L$268 and eventually fill the bid/ask gap -- but that doesn't really happen because buyers take the extra step of checking the total size of Open buy orders at different prices (shown on the "Buy L$" page) to decide what might be worth waiting for. (At this instant there's a pretty huge block of L$35,716,457 waiting to be bought at L$270, so getting in queue to buy at that "default" limit could take a very long time indeed unless the market really is moving.)

Incidentally, I look at the 90-day chart and it doesn't look that exciting to me. Seems the L$ has been trading in a very tight range since at least the beginning of the year. I was all ready to make up a just-so story about how some folks were liquidating L$s perhaps affected by the layoffs coincident with Sansar's, uh, repositioning. Cool story, Qie, but it explains a phenomenon that doesn't seem to have happened.

[ETA: Incidentally, the 9 point spread between bid and ask is about par for the LindeX. I'm not financier enough to know if that approximately 3.5% spread is a natural consequence of the market's fee structure. Would arbitrage be possible with either a tighter spread or lower fees? Dunno.]

Edited by Qie Niangao
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Many thanks for that, @Qie Niangao.

I'd always assumed that the figures that pop up in the Best Rate Buy section represented a "suggestion" rather than, as I now know, a value based on historic trading.

Having read your information above, I can see that the value that pops up in the Best Rate Buy might meet with quite rapid success, or maybe never be met for months!

That all answers my question perfectly! 

 

/me sneaks away miserably, annoyed at her lack of understanding, muttering, "They're still "default" values though....."

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23 minutes ago, Alwin Alcott said:

must be the time of the day.. i still don't get what you mean

Sorry! It seems that it was me that didn't get what I meant!

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2 hours ago, Odaks said:

Has anyone ever got the transaction, having selected a Limit Buy (which defaults to around 4% above the Market Rate), to actually complete?

I tried it once, got fed up after 5 weeks, cancelled the bid and bought at the Market Rate. I've never bothered since.

Afterthought:

Maybe I tried to be even greedier and selected an even higher rate than the default. I can't remember now.

From memory I think I got it at 272 or 274 per USD once, would have to check to be sure but it took ~3 months to get.
Not something you'd wanna do constantly but you can make "long term investments" let it stew for a while and might get lucky.

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4 hours ago, Odaks said:

Has anyone ever got the transaction, having selected a Limit Buy (which defaults to around 4% above the Market Rate), to actually complete?

I tried it once, got fed up after 5 weeks, cancelled the bid and bought at the Market Rate. I've never bothered since.

Afterthought:

Maybe I tried to be even greedier and selected an even higher rate than the default. I can't remember now.

Typically, from personal experience and the various posts/questions we get here in the forums, I've always thought of that default/initial value as a "fill never" timeline order.   Any time a rate gives me a timeline greater than a few hours, it always seems to really mean many days or weeks or months. I usually decrease that value by one or two for my buys.

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270 is not unheard-of.  When I joined back in 2007, and up until some time in 2008-9, the exchange rate was pretty constant at about 270-275:1.  Then it went down to around 250:1 and remained there until last fall, when it started creeping back up again.

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when I buy i always go to what ever will close in 10 minutes.. anyway, even if you wanted to wait however long and go with a slightly better raid, your saving what? $2 maybe, depending on how much your buying,  I dont see it being worth while myself and i normally buy $100 worth at a time which  is around 26,000L

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I gave up trying to figure out LL logic when it comes to exchange rates. Riddle me this...

Not all that long ago I owned a sim.

Tier was $229 per month.

ALL exchange rates sites quoted me about £176. I live in a country that is exempt from VAT and my SL account reflects that. Yet....I pay closer to £195 once LL has made the exchange...and can still find no exchange rate value that warrants such a price hike. There are no special charges for the country I live in, no extra tax. We just pay literally the flat rate that LL asks for.

I message LL, complain, show them the current exchange rates and what the rate would have to be to be charging what they did.

Standard response “LL uses the latest exchange data...”

I respond “No, you don’t, the latest is xxx which gives xxxx”

Ticket gets closed.

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Somebody has a sell order pending for L$129,639,049 at L$259 / US$1.00.

Wonder who wants to cash out nearly half a million US dollars? Is that unusually large? Or just a big landlord cashing out the rent payments?

   

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On 2/17/2020 at 2:07 PM, Sorciaa said:

when I buy i always go to what ever will close in 10 minutes.. anyway, even if you wanted to wait however long and go with a slightly better raid, your saving what? $2 maybe, depending on how much your buying,  I dont see it being worth while myself and i normally buy $100 worth at a time which  is around 26,000L

I use the 10 minute closing time method as well. Has never failed me.

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18 minutes ago, animats said:

Somebody has a sell order pending for L$129,639,049 at L$259 / US$1.00.

Wonder who wants to cash out nearly half a million US dollars? Is that unusually large? Or just a big landlord cashing out the rent payments?

   

that is accumulative of all sell orders at that price :)  that is not one person. I also sold at 259 last week and it happened in about 27 hours and was about the same amount above it as now, if you cancel you lose your spot in the queue and have to start over, but I have done the speedy option a few times, which now its sitting at 260 if you wanted to sell at 261 it would sell usually within the hour and often in minutes, but if not in a hurry, don't be that person that makes it higher :) I have not market sold since about 2008

Edited by Sasy Scarborough
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from a buyers pov

this is what it cost me to buy L$20,000 on the spot market, over the last 12 months or so

2020-02-18 $78.41
2019-11-23 $79.62
2019-09-07 $79.92
2019-05-21 $80.86
2019-03-11 $80.86
2019-01-28 $81.49


i buy at spot because I want it now when I do buy, and holding on for some further hours/days to maybe save 50c at the time is kinda not worth the wait for me

this said, if my history is any guide to buyer spot market then 1.0 - 78.41 / 81.49 is about 3.8%

 

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3 hours ago, animats said:

Somebody has a sell order pending for L$129,639,049 at L$259 / US$1.00.

Wonder who wants to cash out nearly half a million US dollars? Is that unusually large? Or just a big landlord cashing out the rent payments?

Perhaps that includes Supply Linden's freshly minted hoard, if that's the current target floor.

Edited by Qie Niangao
hoard != horde
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