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The metaverse is coming - Forbes

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Recent article in Forbes, from about two weeks ago:

"Call it the Metaverse if you’re a Snow Crash fan. Call it the Oasis if you’re more into Ready Player One. But I fully believe that this is what Fortnite is building, a shared virtual world where players and brands and IPs all collide and coexist in a myriad of ways. For playing games, yes, but also for…everything. ..."

"What I’m describing here is something akin to Second Life, the original virtual life sim, but built on Epic’s engine and using hundreds of millions of Fortnite players as a jumping off point. Not to mention the billions they’ve raked in from Fortnite’s massive success. You think they’re just spending all that on servers and skin development?"

"The key distinction here is that this is not a virtual reality world. Not yet. The Metaverse and the Oasis both utilize ultra-immersive VR, and though VR does exist now, it is not ready for mass, mainstream adoption. So Fortnite’s Metaverse will just be a traditional experience on a screen, with perhaps VR to come further down the line after another decade or so in the oven."

"I believe that Fortnite is moving toward something larger than Battle Royale and Save the World, I think we are headed toward something like Planet Fortnite, where Epic builds an entire world in Unreal in the style of Fortnite, and lets players simply…exist there. Build yourself a mansion, buy new clothes for further customization of existing avatars (or buy more licensed ones). Buy yourself a race car or spaceship, take it anywhere. Hang out with friends, explore secrets of the world."

This is from Forbes, which is a magazine about business and finance, not a gamer mag.

Linden Labs needs to up their game. The big guys are coming. SL hasn't had any real competition in years. Now it's coming. Will LL meet the challenge?

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Up there game as in allow 10 year olds to play?  Cause from what my kids told me fortnite is a kids game. am I wrong? Seems to me fortnight is trying to be like second life.

Edited by Tarina Sewell
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20 minutes ago, animats said:

Recent article in Forbes, from about two weeks ago:

"Call it the Metaverse if you’re a Snow Crash fan. Call it the Oasis if you’re more into Ready Player One. But I fully believe that this is what Fortnite is building, a shared virtual world where players and brands and IPs all collide and coexist in a myriad of ways. For playing games, yes, but also for…everything. ..."

"What I’m describing here is something akin to Second Life, the original virtual life sim, but built on Epic’s engine and using hundreds of millions of Fortnite players as a jumping off point. Not to mention the billions they’ve raked in from Fortnite’s massive success. You think they’re just spending all that on servers and skin development?"

"The key distinction here is that this is not a virtual reality world. Not yet. The Metaverse and the Oasis both utilize ultra-immersive VR, and though VR does exist now, it is not ready for mass, mainstream adoption. So Fortnite’s Metaverse will just be a traditional experience on a screen, with perhaps VR to come further down the line after another decade or so in the oven."

"I believe that Fortnite is moving toward something larger than Battle Royale and Save the World, I think we are headed toward something like Planet Fortnite, where Epic builds an entire world in Unreal in the style of Fortnite, and lets players simply…exist there. Build yourself a mansion, buy new clothes for further customization of existing avatars (or buy more licensed ones). Buy yourself a race car or spaceship, take it anywhere. Hang out with friends, explore secrets of the world."

This is from Forbes, which is a magazine about business and finance, not a gamer mag.

Linden Labs needs to up their game. The big guys are coming. SL hasn't had any real competition in years. Now it's coming. Will LL meet the challenge?

In a word, no.

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LL are in a very different position with a very different virtual ecosystem and a lot of the superficial differences are not possible. Fortnite is not and can never be a metaverse, it's a storefront that provides set piece amusements on the side.

There is no way for example, for LL to add game like dress up or decorating mechanics as SL toolset is not designed with that in mind. What works in one situation just wont work in every situation and attempting to implement such a system would add burdensome constraints to content creators and consumers. While these constrains are in and of themselves acceptable in spaces like Fortnite, they just wouldn't be for SL users (akin to an over night removal or all prim handling and content).

Engineering changes to the SL platform are also unlikely to ever happen. We're never going to have seamless region crossings (or all the other things), and even if such items could be added, it wouldn't do anything to attract new users.

The teen gaming crowd are not sitting around desperately hoping for a slightly better Second Life, and Epic are not trying to attract an older or wider audience.

Forbes only cares because the Fortnite franchise as a whole currently has value. Give it a year and the tech inclined press will have moved on to whatever the next big thing is (while still spouting nonesense about how 5G blockchains will be the one thing that makes VR a success).

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Oh FFS.

This is nothing but pure speculation by a guy who writes about gaming and had this opinion piece published in Forbes.

Big whoop.

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Tim Sweeney has been beating this drum for years now, Fortnite just happens to be the vehicle Epic have with any traction, even if it's a terrible fit. It's still better than attempting to create a whole new platform from scratch with an entirely new and separate userbase.

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Doesn't need to be a user created content marketplace. A curated outlet limited to companies paying for access is sufficient, it doesn't even need to directly generate revenue.

 

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It'll just be another Minecraft or Roblox. Sure you can build and customize stuff, but no where to the extent you can in second life. I can make maps and customize my character in team fortress 2, does that mean tf2 is coming after SL?

All I can see is fortnite world ending up like this:

  • Screaming and swearing kids everywhere. Only slight amusement out of this is you may occasionally hear "WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY?" from their mom over their open mic.
  • More griefing than there is in Minecraft. Fortnite is built to be combat, hense everything is designed to be destructible. If you have played Minecraft, you know people like to set your house on fire.
  • Customization is limited to tinting.
  • Content freedom isn't as free as SL for various reasons.
  • "Scripting" will take the habbo hotel approach of stuff wiring tiles together.

This isn't another second life. It hardly classifies as a metaverse. I guarantee you there will be many servers running instead of one world running. I'd argue VRChat is more of a threat to SL, but again, it is very limited, content creation must be done externally in the unity editor, stricter policies, etc. HiFi and Sansar(not as much due to content restrictions) are the only ones that really come close to being a threat to SL but they don't have the user base to do so.

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9 minutes ago, Kimmi Zehetbauer said:

But will Fortnite have live performers like here in SL? :D

Funny that you say that... https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/21/18234980/fortnite-marshmello-concert-viewer-numbers

Quote

On February 2nd, Fortnite had its best event day ever with 10.7 million players showing up for the Marshmello concert.

It’s also important to note that the 10.7 million number only includes those who experienced the concert in-game. If you factor in those who watched it live-streamed on Twitch and other platforms, the number will definitely be much larger, and the official recap of the event has nearly 27 million views on YouTube.

Edited by Wulfie Reanimator

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28 minutes ago, Chaser Zaks said:

HiFi and Sansar(not as much due to content restrictions) are the only ones that really come close to being a threat to SL but they don't have the user base to do so.

HiFi is dead. I’m wondering how long Sansar will continue.

What about Sinespace? 

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It’s also important to note that the 10.7 million number only includes those who experienced the concert in-game.

 

Second Life being mentioned in the same paragraph as that juggernaut is the only take away of any value here, using Fortnite as a stick to poke LL with is dumb to several orders of magnitude. Heck, put all the virtual worlds together and the decimal point is still in the wrong place.

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"Fortnite is a game. But please ask that question again in 12 months."

— Tim Sweeney (@TimSweeneyEpic) December 26, 2019
The point here is that the big guys are moving towards SL's niche. This is both an opportunity and a threat for Linden Lab management.
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1 hour ago, Fauve Aeon said:

HiFi is dead. I’m wondering how long Sansar will continue.

What about Sinespace? 

Closest thing to date. It’s def got the potential regardless of what the naysayers say

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1 hour ago, animats said:

"Fortnite is a game. But please ask that question again in 12 months."

— Tim Sweeney (@TimSweeneyEpic) December 26, 2019
The point here is that the big guys are moving towards SL's niche. This is both an opportunity and a threat for Linden Lab management.

They might be moving towards SL's niche, but SL's niche is such a small target that Epic can't hit without a lot of collateral. (Meaning, Epic will have to make some risky decisions to get on SL's level.)

Basically, while Epic can create a virtual platform, it won't have the same appeals as SL.

That's not to say that they can't succeed -- I'd be almost surprised if they didn't -- it's just not going to draw a large chunk of users from SL because of the things it'll do better. 

Metaverse will probably even be bigger than SL from day one, but not because of anything LL could learn from. (Mainly the vast userbase and mainstream visibility.)

Edited by Wulfie Reanimator

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1 hour ago, animats said:

"Fortnite is a game. But please ask that question again in 12 months."

— Tim Sweeney (@TimSweeneyEpic) December 26, 2019
The point here is that the big guys are moving towards SL's niche. This is both an opportunity and a threat for Linden Lab management.

 

Tim gets to leverage a user base with millions of active accounts. He could add latin crosswords to Fortnite and it would be considered a genius inspired runaway success by the tech scribblers. It in no way means 'the big guys' are moving into SL's niche and the very suggestion implies you're as out of touch with Fortnite as the Forbes writer.

Fortnite recently took the whole game away and left users with a black screen. 

For two days.

400,000 people sat on Twitch and watched literally nothing, FOR FUN.

https://www.gamerevolution.com/guides/606898-fortnite-black-screen-whats-going-on-with-fortnite

Meanwhile SL had little over a tenth of that online, nobody streaming to tens of people (let alone hundreds or hundreds of thousands), and 12 people on Sansar. Our grid goes down for an hour and we're breaking out the chicken little conspiracy theories.

Heck, It's a very safe bet that there are more people logged into Fortnite right now and fast asleep than are active during peak SL hours.

I have no idea what you imagine LL could be doing to leverage teen/streamer culture for a radically different platform to boost Second Life .. maybe get some official in SL merch a-la Hello Kitty? The worlds jankiest Battle Royal for Lindy homes? They would make more money calling this mess done and selling Fortnite branded toilet paper (and I'm betting you have no clue why or how that would actually be a thing ....)

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11 hours ago, animats said:

Recent article in Forbes, from about two weeks ago:

"Call it the Metaverse if you’re a Snow Crash fan. Call it the Oasis if you’re more into Ready Player One. But I fully believe that this is what Fortnite is building, a shared virtual world where players and brands and IPs all collide and coexist in a myriad of ways. For playing games, yes, but also for…everything. ..."

"What I’m describing here is something akin to Second Life, the original virtual life sim, but built on Epic’s engine and using hundreds of millions of Fortnite players as a jumping off point. Not to mention the billions they’ve raked in from Fortnite’s massive success. You think they’re just spending all that on servers and skin development?"

"The key distinction here is that this is not a virtual reality world. Not yet. The Metaverse and the Oasis both utilize ultra-immersive VR, and though VR does exist now, it is not ready for mass, mainstream adoption. So Fortnite’s Metaverse will just be a traditional experience on a screen, with perhaps VR to come further down the line after another decade or so in the oven."

"I believe that Fortnite is moving toward something larger than Battle Royale and Save the World, I think we are headed toward something like Planet Fortnite, where Epic builds an entire world in Unreal in the style of Fortnite, and lets players simply…exist there. Build yourself a mansion, buy new clothes for further customization of existing avatars (or buy more licensed ones). Buy yourself a race car or spaceship, take it anywhere. Hang out with friends, explore secrets of the world."

This is from Forbes, which is a magazine about business and finance, not a gamer mag.

Linden Labs needs to up their game. The big guys are coming. SL hasn't had any real competition in years. Now it's coming. Will LL meet the challenge?

The idea that one company is going to "build the Metaverse" - an all-pervasive thing which is also called "the 3D Internet" - is a fundamental misunderstanding of both how the Internet works and how world power structures work.

No single company will be allowed that much power or control, either by governments or by other large and powerful companies. Amazon, Google and Facebook are already hitting heavy friction in their quests to become more powerful; Microsoft has already been cut down to size.

Meanwhile, the Internet isn't a "thing." It's a set of protocols that allowed previously existing systems to be connected and communicate, without those systems needing to submit to outside control. Second Life and Fortnite could never be "the 3D Internet" - at best they could be 3D Compuserves or Prodigys. A true "metaverse" is going to be a set of protocols like this that allow people to operate across virtual environments instead of a single environment. 

It may well be that this is what Tim Sweeney is really thinking of and this particular writer is a nimbonog. (I have encountered enough shades of idiocy in my life that I'm getting to the point that I need to come up with new words to describe them all.) However, I'm not so sure. The minute you start talking about graphics engines in a case like this you've already failed, because graphics engines will become obsolete. You need to think on the level of flexible standards like TCP/IP or HTML.

And in a true "Metaverse" like this "competition" is meaningless - Second Life and Fortnite would both be simply destinations and if either failed the Metaverse itself would continue without them unaffected.

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2 minutes ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

nimbonog. (I have encountered enough shades of idiocy in my life that I'm getting to the point that I need to come up with new words to describe them all.)

A word with zero hits when searched on Google... Congratulations!!

I shall use this word in conversation at least 11 times today. I love it. 

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7 hours ago, animats said:

"Fortnite is a game. But please ask that question again in 12 months."

— Tim Sweeney (@TimSweeneyEpic) December 26, 2019
The point here is that the big guys are moving towards SL's niche. This is both an opportunity and a threat for Linden Lab management.

Who is moving towards SL? Where did you read that anyone or anything is or will move towards SL? This is a bunch of nonesense speculation in the direction of "wouldn't it be cool if..."-type of wishful thinking. None of that is actually happening. The stereotypical fortnite player is a 7-13 year old boy with cringy and annyoing behavior fulled by softdrinks. Fortnite is even looked down on in many circles of adult gamers.

Maybe its just me, but I don't think a typical Fortnite player would have any interest in a virtual world like SL.

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12 hours ago, animats said:

...

and using hundreds of millions of Fortnite players as a jumping off point

So, almost ten percent of the world's population play Fortnite? Yeah, that sounds about right. :P

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