Jump to content
AlexandriaBrangwin

Social VR's damning indictment

Recommended Posts

An observed offhander from Twitter by Philip Rosedale, creator of Second Life.

If he's having regret about leaving to start High Fidelity, what does that say about the FOMO drenched land rush Sansar was built upon?

wait.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I predict that two things happening in the next 12 months will change social VR uptake among consumers: 

1. The Oculus Quest standalone VR headset is selling as fast as Facebook can make them; and

2. Facebook is launching a social VR platform called Horizon in early 2020. 

As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats. Yes, some founders like Philip Rosedale were caught unexpectedly by slower-than-expected VR uptake by consumers but that is likely to change quickly now that Facebook is entering the social VR market in a big way. Facebook is likely to dominate the social VR market and crush (or buy out) competitors. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For once, I think Rosedale hit it square on. Something about load.

Right now the OQ still 'retails´at 549 Euros ( hey if I have to I want the big one! And it better come with the oh dear throttled USB link ). A months rent plus. For that price, something else has already caught my eye and that comes with a dev kit.  ( I usually view kick starter stuff with cynical bemusement  but went oooh I could use that for once ).

Yes, zBuk has bottomless cash to throw at the punters and no doubt will but face it - Horizons should have been the killer app but a) I watched the ad - yuck and b) Beta is still next year so they already piqued and then missed the xmas market.

Yes it will probably work (even sans legs and with screechy voice ads) but nope. Oh and yes that rising tide lifting all boats thing. Ever seen a tsunami roll in?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/6/2019 at 4:24 PM, Vanity Fair said:

Facebook is likely to dominate the social VR market and crush (or buy out) competitors. 

It's quite possible that dominating the social VR market will be about the same as dominating the cheese straightener market.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Parhelion Palou said:

It's quite possible that dominating the social VR market will be about the same as dominating the cheese straightener market.

Or it may turn out that VR headgear is used in a completely different way - to watch passive entertainment.

John Carmack gave a long interview recently. He sees one big application of VR headgear as watching Netflix and such, on a "big screen". A way to have the "home theater" experience for people who don't have enough room for a home theater. This is surprising to hear from Carmack, who's a famous game developer. He also thinks the headgear needs to come down to swim-goggle size to really take off. And if it can be be brought down to sunglasses-size, people will be wearing them all the time, like they look at phones now, he says. Face it, the current VR headgear is only slightly less clunky than the VR headgear of 10, 20, or 30 years ago. It's just cordless now.

With passive entertainment, the nausea problem is much less. You're sitting in a chair in RL, and you're sitting in a chair in VR, so your visual and physical environment are in sync. That's also true for Beat Saber, the most popular VR game, by the way; you stand and move in place, but are in sync in RL or VR. In virtual worlds where you can move around in VR while being stationary in RL, somewhere around 10%-15% of the population gets nauseated. Which is a big problem for a mass market product. Roller coasters have a lower nausea rate than that.

Sansar's biggest successes have been with passive entertainment. Look at the Sansar stats:

sansar2019.thumb.png.0fa0a0ece663ad9d150e415fc9020302.png

Big event, usage goes up. Big event over, usage goes back down.

Sansar has tried DJ events, with modest success. There was something about watching e-sports in Sansar. (Not playing them, just watching people play on some other system elsewhere.) It's possible to watch pro basketball games in VR, and that's an expensive ticket. Rock concerts in VR have been tried, and those, too, are expensive tickets, sold by the people who sell tickets to RL rock concerts. Maybe that's the future of VR.

I suspect Carmack is right about the headgear needing to come down to swim-goggle size. That's probably coming. There have been VR goggles no bigger than protective eyewear, so optically, this is possible. Getting all the needed electronics down in size and cost remains a problem, but that can probably be done. But not this year.

Or maybe watching stuff in VR is just a fad, like 3D TV, which works fine, was on sale for a few years, and disappeared from the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

All good points so far.

My main concern with VR is beyond the market, beyond the hardware...more the experience itself in a very meta way.

In the most popular games of our time, your God Of War's & GTA5 and such your avatar can perform moves the likes of which your physical body can't...or even if they can...not for very long.

Yet people spend hours in these games.

Taking out the physical limits has enabled people to do things in games we can't hope for in reality...unless you really can run at full speed around Los Angeles non stop for 6 hours carrying ten guns?

VR adds in not only that immersion of being there (funny I never heard anyone playing Fallout 4 say OMG I'm staring at a flat piece of plastic with LED's behind it) but also adds back that physical limitation.

It's something I never see mentioned but subconsciously we all know it...we feel it even if we can't put a name to it.

I think that's the big barrier to VR really taking off in the way marketing types keep saying is "just around the corner"

Edited by AlexandriaBrangwin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I was a very big skeptic of VR. Then, I met my partner Bagnaria. I was already in Sansar before that, just thinking and playing with the creation process. Bagnaria is a big techie, and had the original Oculus DK, and the DK2. After we met, she sent me her DK2. I figured what the heck, I'll try it. I got it to work in Sansar, and literally the first day chasing Bagnaria around, I threw off the head set and ran to the bathroom to puke. That said, I was sold, and got an Oculus Rift the next month. 

After over a year now, of being in VR almost everyday, I have to say, there is no greater gaming, or virtual experience. If you like realistic games, or you like virtual worlds, then being in VR is the ultimate expression of it. Literally, 1 minute I'm in my office, and the next minute I'm standing next to another creator on his flying ship, with amazing detail around me, and rain that falls and hits me in the face. There is a Kraken with tentacles reaching onto the ship at us. C3rb3rus also has a game called Ultimate Disk in Sansar, where the gravity is lower, and we literally leap 50 feet into the air to catch a disc and throw it to another team mate or score a goal. Super human abilities are definitely possible in VR. Why would they not be? Yeah, maybe some games, that you have to only use your physical abilities, but that is also the cool part. 

IMHO, VR has not taken off like everyone has hoped because of all the boneheaded ideology that came out of it's early development. Like we can just let the user be a head and floaty hands, cause people don't care about identity. Yeah, they actually said that crap. Or, moving around makes some people puke, so don't let anyone move freely in your games. Go play most of the Oculus games. You can't move at all in most of them. You are stuck in 1 spot, or you might get to teleport a short distance. Yeah, people will get sick, but that doesn't mean you cement people's feet to the ground. It's ridiculousness like this that really hurt most of the early games made for the Oculus. 

VR is not a fad. Maybe to us old folks, it is, but to a serious gamer, or most young people that grew up on games, VR is the ULTIMATE gaming experience.

Edited by Medhue Simoni
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Medhue Simoni said:

After over a year now, of being in VR almost everyday, I have to say, there is no greater gaming, or virtual experience. If you like realistic games, or you like virtual worlds, then being in VR is the ultimate expression of it.

YES!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Medhue Simoni said:

IMHO, VR has not taken off like everyone has hoped because of all the boneheaded ideology that came out of it's early development. Like we can just let the user be a head and floaty hands, cause people don't care about identity. Yeah, they actually said that crap. Or, moving around makes some people puke, so don't let anyone move freely in your games. Go play most of the Oculus games. You can't move at all in most of them. You are stuck in 1 spot, or you might get to teleport a short distance.

I didn't know they had a deliberate strategy early on.  I've always thought the reason it hasn't taken off big time yet is because people simply can't understand the value of VR without experiencing it.  Fortunately the lower price of the Quest and a push from Facebook  to their mega audience just might change that.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, animats said:

Or it may turn out that VR headgear is used in a completely different way - to watch passive entertainment.

I watch a lot of movies with others in VR -- it always amazes me how much I feel like I'm really there, in all sorts of interesting theaters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See that's the thing that worries me, the only people singing it's praises seem to be the ones that have sunk cost into it really deeply.

I was around for the first wave of VR in the 1990's and honestly all that has changed is the graphics tech.

"True Gamers"?...oh come on...you know they'd rather spend the money on a new GTX 2080Ti & a 4K monitor array that stretches off the sides of the table.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, AlexandriaBrangwin said:

"True Gamers"?...oh come on...you know they'd rather spend the money on a new GTX 2080Ti & a 4K monitor array that stretches off the sides of the table.

I went with my current 55" screen because the 65" would be overhanging the table slightly and that would just be silly when it's 3 feet in front of me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, AlexandriaBrangwin said:

the only people singing it's praises seem to be the ones that have sunk cost into it really deeply.

I do not quite understand. The Oculus Rift was $399, with controllers. That is not really that deep. My graphics card, as many gamers, is almost twice that. What you get tho, is being there. Totally worth way more than $399.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Medhue Simoni said:
14 hours ago, AlexandriaBrangwin said:

the only people singing it's praises seem to be the ones that have sunk cost into it really deeply.

I do not quite understand. The Oculus Rift was $399, with controllers. That is not really that deep. My graphics card, as many gamers, is almost twice that. What you get tho, is being there. Totally worth way more than $399.

I think Alexiandria might be referring to large tech companies. There is the perception among some that VR is being pushed by tech companies because, well, techie people like to develop tech, and then they want to make money off it. Those who don't see the value of VR often believe this is happening - I think they're just unaware of those in the general public who love VR and want to see it grow.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Medhue Simoni said:

I do not quite understand. The Oculus Rift was $399, with controllers. That is not really that deep. My graphics card, as many gamers, is almost twice that. What you get tho, is being there. Totally worth way more than $399.

Never mind all the people who buy the latest and greatest phone for twice that amount... every year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rofl, I don't think I've paid more than $100 for my phones. That is how important a phone is to me. It literally just needs to be a phone. I have tablets for those other things. lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most people's first experience with VR has probably been those dreadful headsets for your phone that Wal-Mart can't even sell for a dollar now. No one who has experienced that garbage is going to shell out $400 for a VR headset plus another $300 for a video card to drive it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Lyssa Greymoon said:

Most people's first experience with VR has probably been those dreadful headsets for your phone that Wal-Mart can't even sell for a dollar now. No one who has experienced that garbage is going to shell out $400 for a VR headset plus another $300 for a video card to drive it.

I've never heard of this Wal-mart thing...but does not sound good.

No need for a PC video card to get into high-quality VR now -- the Oculus Quest is driven by Wi-fi and is $399.  Won't work for Sansar atm though.

Edited by Luna Bliss

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Luna Bliss said:

Won't work for Sansar atm though.

It was announced recently that the Quest will have an option to wire the quest to the pc, to play more graphics intense games. Don't know how good it will be tho.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/9/2019 at 3:50 PM, Medhue Simoni said:

I do not quite understand. The Oculus Rift was $399, with controllers. That is not really that deep. My graphics card, as many gamers, is almost twice that. What you get tho, is being there. Totally worth way more than $399.

No, it had nothing to do with it's actual cost...and more to do with the emotional investment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...