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Prokofy Neva

Why is the Linden Dollar Tanking?

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Posted (edited)

So here's a snapshot right now at 1:42 am SLT when I happened to look on the sell side:

L$256 / US$1.00 L$13,265,205
L$255 / US$1.00 L$152,043,315
L$254 / US$1.00 L$89,471,050
L$253 / US$1.00 L$65,235,964
L$252 / US$1.00 L$72,354,579

 

I wouldn't remark on it, except that it has been at 254 and 255 for weeks, when it was at 253 for a good long time. 

It's strange given that you would think with Bellisaria homes selling like hotcakes (which means people would be buying to decorate them); with fall and Halloween (which get people to buy lots of decorations, costumes, etc.); with abandoned land being siphoned off more and more -- you would think the money supply would be tighter, i.e. more demand for Linden currency purchases and therefore a higher value for cash-out.

Now, it could be that Supply Linden has flooded the markets, as he is wont to do, precisely to keep the purchasing Linden dollar cheaper for all those Bellisarians. But for it to be $13 million waiting behind at 256 seems unusual.

Yes, I've seen situations like this clear up in hours, when some giant moves. Or the Lindens. But not always.

It could be that some giant is failing and is trying to cash out, and isn't even very mindful that his giant footprint on the LindEx defeats his own value.

Or we could see a worsening of the general problem of higher fees for cashouts, meaning that more and more funds wait longer to cash out (or conversely, more frequent, smaller cashouts without waiting for higher value?)

 

Edited by Prokofy Neva
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Posted (edited)

I would love to reply but everyone would jump on me for being a negative Nancy or a troll.

Thanks for this, for me the numbers say it all.

Edited by JUSTUS Palianta
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I wish we had Marketplace volume data. (Do we?) The main risk to L$ value is a decline in effective L$-denominated sinks, foremost among which is Marketplace commissions. If folks are buying at events instead of on the Marketplace (and/or fewer sellers paying as much extra for featured Marketplace listings) it could cause pressure because there's not a lot of upload fees being paid anymore, and not so much classified and search listing fees as there were in the very old days before Marketplace got so huge.

Of course there's also the possibility of demand-side decline, but historically rumors like that turn out to be unfounded. (Although... if there's been a big increase in Premium memberships, perhaps drawn by Bellisseria, all those stipends would be a significant L$ source, displacing Lindex buys.)

Speaking of history, though: The Lab has always in the past had plenty of spare sink capacity, enough to mint new L$s in pretty high volume. It would be surprising if either supply- or demand-side has changed that, so the most likely explanation is still that Supply Linden is intentionally pushing up the exchange rate for some reason.

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I think someone is playing with it, maybe LL themselves. But on top of that I blame those who see that they can't sell within 24 hours, and instead of waiting 3-4 days just sell at the next step. Then 100+ million build up on that step, and the next impatient seller goes to the next and so on.

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I am not sure I would describe the market's behavior as "tanking".  When I joined SL back in 2007, the $L traded at around $L270: $1USD.  A few years later, it went down to about 250:1, and has held there for a long time.  About a year ago, it began slowly bumping up again.

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It looks like it’s about the same as it’s always been ~250 L = $1 US. I wouldn’t call a fluctuation of a few cents tanking. That’s a bit hyperbolic isn’t it?

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1 hour ago, Lindal Kidd said:

Volume data is available.

Lindex volumes, yes. I was talking about Marketplace volumes, just for the purpose of seeing if there could be a downward trend in Marketplace commissions as a L$ sink. (That still wouldn't tell us whether extra listing promotional fees -- another sink -- were declining.)

To be honest, the main reason I posted was to highlight the complexity of the L$ market. The natural inclination in these threads is to jump to a "sky is falling" conclusion that the value is "tanking" because folks are dumping L$s and/or nobody is buying L$s anymore. In SL's economy, though, the "Fed" is a very active player and there's a huge share of the money supply that evaporates into sinks (all L$-denominated fees) and springs into existence with sources such as stipends. That's all in addition to the usual "foreign exchange" of folks buying and selling L$s on the Lindex.

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"Why is the Linden Dollar Tanking?"

 

Because it got tired of trucking?

 

But seriously, I think a lot of merchants have, as Qie somewhat suggested(or at least I think , I could be interpreting Qie's post wrong) stopped the extra listing promotions, perhaps even maybe slowed down listing as much at all. Sometimes that's in anticipation of holidays, sometimes not. But lately I've seen an awful lot of merchants pretty dissatisfied with LL and the way they;re handling some things with the MP, or not handling as the case most often is. The minor issues that have always plagued it aren't so minor anymore, they're actually quite huge for some (even if the forums don't necessarily reflect this at all times). This might only be a tiny contributor, or none at all, I don't know, but I don't think none at all actually fits.

Aside from that you also have LL making more claims about last names(HA, what a weird non-informative announcement!) and more premium levels, and this that and the other. Even though that's typical and par for the course with LL it also almost always coincides with changes we see in the lindex (and then posts about it on the forums). Even minor "announcements" by LL, updates, whatever have you, have had more and more effect as the years go on. Sometimes it's a positive effect, sometimes negative, sometimes negligible. I don't see this change as a "tanking" necessarily, because I think we've seen far worse and even that was never considered tanking-more so annoying to those paying the closest attention.

I don't think the average sl resident gives a rat's left nut, so I doubt most people even noticed, even most big merchants and bigger players in the game that is lindex haven't noticed, so I don't think tanking would be the appropriate term. Perhaps...trucking, because, it's literally trucking along as it has, you're just paying slightly closer attention because, well...I dunno, you trying to cash out or buy? (don't need to answer that, totally rhetorical, lol) That's about the only time *most people who start this threads actually notice changes at all, and even a few "cents" seems like a ginormous change to those folks. 

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I tend to buy my L on the market rather then from LL themselves and I have been watching that pretty closely. I used to buy at 260/$1 and it would have the 10 minute delivery time. Right now its at 265/$1 with the 10 minute delivery time.

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10 hours ago, Lindal Kidd said:

I am not sure I would describe the market's behavior as "tanking".  When I joined SL back in 2007, the $L traded at around $L270: $1USD.  A few years later, it went down to about 250:1, and has held there for a long time.  About a year ago, it began slowly bumping up again.

It's tanking; you must not cash out much and so you don't feel the pain.

I have very good records of the Linden rates. And here's what I have for May 2007:

Sunday, May 27, 2007
Time: 9:30 am SLT

Total Residents:      6,722,299
Logged In Last 60 Days:     1,738,345
Online Now:     37,619
US$ Spent Last 24h:     $1,533,167
LindeX Activity Last 24h:     $213,704
Top Sell Orders:
L$266 / US$1.00      L$570,701
Top Buy Orders:
L$277 / US$1.00      L$45,872,339

Sell was 266 in fact.

Here's another snapshot from September 2007:

Lindex Volume:
$17,061,153 9/22/06 AV 275.05
Top Open Sell Orders:
L$275 / US$1.00      5      L$183,623
Top Open Buy Orders:
L$286 / US$1.00      5      L$2,254,498

People have all kinds of ideas about the LindEx but unless they cash out regularly, they don't have a feel for it.

Here's 2010:

LINDEX
TOP SELL: L$259 / US$1.00      L$133,375,598 
TOP BUY:  L$269 / US$1.00      L$21,059,317 

LINDEX VOLUME: 
Volume 5/8/10  L90,193,684 ($335,520)
Highest vol 30 days 117,587,649 (4/30) ($437,426)
Average Rate 262.33
Purchase Min 21 Max 2,000,000

So it's not quite what you say, although it got better -- and even better when more prims were put in per square meter.

Your record of sales goes back two weeks, I think, and when I look at mine, I see even 2 weeks ago it was regularly 253 or sometimes 254; now it's 255.

https://secondlife.com/my/lindex/history.php

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Tari Landar said:

"Why is the Linden Dollar Tanking?"

 

Because it got tired of trucking?

 

But seriously, I think a lot of merchants have, as Qie somewhat suggested(or at least I think , I could be interpreting Qie's post wrong) stopped the extra listing promotions, perhaps even maybe slowed down listing as much at all. Sometimes that's in anticipation of holidays, sometimes not. But lately I've seen an awful lot of merchants pretty dissatisfied with LL and the way they;re handling some things with the MP, or not handling as the case most often is. The minor issues that have always plagued it aren't so minor anymore, they're actually quite huge for some (even if the forums don't necessarily reflect this at all times). This might only be a tiny contributor, or none at all, I don't know, but I don't think none at all actually fits.

Aside from that you also have LL making more claims about last names(HA, what a weird non-informative announcement!) and more premium levels, and this that and the other. Even though that's typical and par for the course with LL it also almost always coincides with changes we see in the lindex (and then posts about it on the forums). Even minor "announcements" by LL, updates, whatever have you, have had more and more effect as the years go on. Sometimes it's a positive effect, sometimes negative, sometimes negligible. I don't see this change as a "tanking" necessarily, because I think we've seen far worse and even that was never considered tanking-more so annoying to those paying the closest attention.

I don't think the average sl resident gives a rat's left nut, so I doubt most people even noticed, even most big merchants and bigger players in the game that is lindex haven't noticed, so I don't think tanking would be the appropriate term. Perhaps...trucking, because, it's literally trucking along as it has, you're just paying slightly closer attention because, well...I dunno, you trying to cash out or buy? (don't need to answer that, totally rhetorical, lol) That's about the only time *most people who start this threads actually notice changes at all, and even a few "cents" seems like a ginormous change to those folks. 

I'm trying to think why I stopped Marketplace listings which is true, a sink. Because it didn't work? Because it seemed to promise that you were on "the landing page" for an item, but you weren't really? I guess it has to be gamed like everything else. But I have found inworld classifieds, also a sink, a better bet which shows you the number of people who looked, those who TP'd, and then you can see the click-through rate to a sale.

Qie may have hit upon the explanation -- more premiums means lots more cash flooding the world that is "not on the LindEx". At least I don't *think* it is. It is purchased at a rate higher than the LindEx would charge and comes in the premium bundle. Where it is reflected on the LindEx is a mystery IF it is reflected. More likely it is "printed cash" that causes inflation.

Tanking is exactly the appropriate term to use for cashouts going from 253 to 255 and higher. That's significant. That IS tanking. Just because many people don't care whether their Lindens cost 50 cents more or less doesn't mean its value isn't tanking. It's not that I'm "paying slightly more attention". It's that I've been...cashing out for 15 years so I know when it is losing value or not. I do this on a schedule so I can pay tier. So I notice the rates for sure, and have over time, and have also reported on them in InfoNut on a sporadic schedule but enough so you have snapshots over the years. 

Second Life is a closed society, like that of Russia or China, with no free press inworld, no transparency as to economic statistics (we used to get more of this) and so on. If it weren't for Tyche Shepherd and the occasion discussion like this one, we'd know nothing. It's not Chicken Little to speak up when you see the Linden consistently falling in value for weeks AFTER the cashout fee was RAISED. The cashout fee being raised shouldn't be happening SIMULTANEOUSLY with the FALL IN VALUE. THAT is the issue.

It could be a number of factors coming together -- more printed cash from premiums, less sinks with purchases of MP listings; less $10 fees (although I find that hard to believe, but I suppose with more mesh objects being made outside of SL, that's the case), higher prices for land as the land supply starts to tighten with more abandoned land being siphoned off. Possibly the resident-to-resident auctions are a factor but honestly, I don't get those. They seem like merely another way for land barons to perform sales.

I raise these issues to try to understand things better and Qie has provided a helpful explanation and I've also learned that there is less use of the MP listings, which I didn't realize.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, janetosilio said:

It looks like it’s about the same as it’s always been ~250 L = $1 US. I wouldn’t call a fluctuation of a few cents tanking. That’s a bit hyperbolic isn’t it?

A problem with these discussions is that people commenting a) don't cash out, but only buy so they like it if the Linden has a low value against the dollar b) cash out small amounts or rarely c) don't understand how money works.

First of all, it hasn't been 250 in years; it has been 253-254 in the last year. And that's significant. It can seem like "a few points" that mean nothing -- until it does.

So, let's take this example:

$100,000 Lindens are cashed out at 250 (in the old days) for a value of $400. With today's fees, the proceeds are $386
OR $100,000 are cashed out at 255 = for a $392.16 value and $378.44 after fees.

That's a loss of $7.56. If that doesn't seem like much, like 1.5 lattes at Starbucks, it's because you're still looking at a $400 value -- you would need five times that to live modestly in many states and use your SL business to pay for your rent and food. So then your losses start to add up to more like $50 a month for that attempt to wrest the $2000 out of SL.

It sometimes seems in reading these forums comments that people find those who make and sell things in SL or rent and sell rentals are somehow desperate, losers, dirty somehow, although of course they make the world. 

Someone who is paying for let's say 25 sims has tier of US $4375 to fork over every month which means they have to make more that much in sales and after expenses, if they hope to make some profit to use in RL.

A creator may not have those costs especially if they sell on the MP. But if they are hoping even to draw $300-$500 out of SL a month, losing $7 or $15 or a day's groceries begins to be painful.

It's especially painful if you are now paying A HIGHER FEE to cashout, and taking a loss compared to last year. You then hope that loss isn't compounded by cashouts at 255.

And usually these discussions are accompanied by lectures against those who won't wait "24 hours" and get the immediate cashout or the one likely in 24 hours. But that would obviously not be me, who is happy to wait a month. But not more than a month. And that's the problem with these rates -- they will mean more than a month -- or never.

Edited by Prokofy Neva
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12 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I'm trying to think why I stopped Marketplace listings which is true, a sink. Because it didn't work? Because it seemed to promise that you were on "the landing page" for an item, but you weren't really? I guess it has to be gamed like everything else. But I have found inworld classifieds, also a sink, a better bet which shows you the number of people who looked, those who TP'd, and then you can see the click-through rate to a sale.

I agree about classifieds. I tested them years ago and just last month and they did me NO GOOD AT ALL.   

12 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

Qie may have hit upon the explanation -- more premiums means lots more cash flooding the world that is "not on the LindEx". At least I don't *think* it is. It is purchased at a rate higher than the LindEx would charge and comes in the premium bundle. Where it is reflected on the LindEx is a mystery IF it is reflected. More likely it is "printed cash" that causes inflation.

Since we cannot currently pay for our membership or tier in lindens, that money does go through the Lindex (and then get taken by LL) so it seems like it would show up in the "lindens to USD" conversion rate statistics but nowhere else. 

12 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

Tanking is exactly the appropriate term to use for cashouts going from 253 to 255 and higher. That's significant. That IS tanking. Just because many people don't care whether their Lindens cost 50 cents more or less doesn't mean its value isn't tanking. It's not that I'm "paying slightly more attention". It's that I've been...cashing out for 15 years so I know when it is losing value or not. I do this on a schedule so I can pay tier. So I notice the rates for sure, and have over time, and have also reported on them in InfoNut on a sporadic schedule but enough so you have snapshots over the years. 

While I am not arguing that the linden is worth the same as it has been in the past, it is probably VERY good to note that the US dollar isn't either. Not going into any political argument but the linden seems to be holding its value better than the USD --- ESPECIALLY when you consider what you get for your money.  Statics can be "gamed" to say almost anything the analyist wants to say, it is what we pay out of our pockets and what we get for it that counts.  Not only is land tier cheaper than it has been, general merchandise is WAY cheaper than it was eight years ago or so.  

12 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

Second Life is a closed society, like that of Russia or China, with no free press inworld, no transparency as to economic statistics (we used to get more of this) and so on. If it weren't for Tyche Shepherd and the occasion discussion like this one, we'd know nothing. It's not Chicken Little to speak up when you see the Linden consistently falling in value for weeks AFTER the cashout fee was RAISED. The cashout fee being raised shouldn't be happening SIMULTANEOUSLY with the FALL IN VALUE. THAT is the issue.

It could be a number of factors coming together -- more printed cash from premiums, less sinks with purchases of MP listings; less $10 fees (although I find that hard to believe, but I suppose with more mesh objects being made outside of SL, that's the case), higher prices for land as the land supply starts to tighten with more abandoned land being siphoned off. Possibly the resident-to-resident auctions are a factor but honestly, I don't get those. They seem like merely another way for land barons to perform sales.

While I understand that you have a closer pulse of the land value market, I haven't seen much change. People are still abandoning because they can't sell ---- even at auction.  The land next to my old shop was up at auction forever and then just abandoned. That mainland plot is almost all abandoned land again -- like it was a year and a half ago when I bought it (and the same time free tier went to 1024).   

12 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I raise these issues to try to understand things better and Qie has provided a helpful explanation and I've also learned that there is less use of the MP listings, which I didn't realize.

 

I can't really add any concrete anecdotal info so far as Marketplace sales go. Mine seem pretty steady and normal and I have pretty much quit creating new things --- now, just things that I want to make for myself or for the challenge -- since I am no longer cashing out. 

 

And that is a bit of a thought right there -----   The Lab is no longer getting any conversion OR cash out (process credit) fees from me.   That's two months so far. I was always a fairly little player and never reached "report to IRS" status, but that is a chunk of money that they are no longer getting.   I assumed (rightly or wrongly I still don't know) that there were very few folks that decided NOT to agree to Tilia, stayed in SL and decided to spend their lindens (not really all that easy LOL) instead of processing out to USD. I could have been completely wrong in that assumptions. I don't KNOW anyone that is in "non-Tilia" mode so far as cashing out, but they could certainly be out there. So add up a few hundred folks or more at a few hundred dollar or more and it starts to add up.  

 

So I guess that last thought is my only new idea on this subject.  I always just converted at the current rate and didn't worry about it -- as you said not everyone really cares.   

 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Prokofy Neva said:

I raise these issues to try to understand things better and Qie has provided a helpful explanation and I've also learned that there is less use of the MP listings, which I didn't realize.

Might I make a suggestion? (I'm going to anyway, I don't know why I ask, lol)

If you're really interested in seeing how merchants can, and do, also affect these changes on lindex (and this isn't directed at just you, I'm using your post as a jumping off point), I suggest paying really close attention both to the merchant forum and other places where *merchants themselves talk about the issues.  For example, the whole advertising/enhancement crap we can buy for our listings on MP has been a crap shoot since day one. Yes, some merchants have noticed impressions and click-throughs, they are there, but the effect they gave/give has been negligible, at best fr MOST. I don't personally know a single merchant on MP for whom they've *actually been all that helpful(and worth the cost, however one might wanna word that) after using them for a while. I have seen people say they have had some benefit, but, I'm not always as keen to believe they all have, as some are, well, questionable (for me, just imo). Other merchants will tell you "yes I pay for this advertising, just as I do other methods, but I'm not so sure how effective it is, I just consider it a cost of doing business". Even just two years ago, you wouldn't be too hard pressed to find those folks-there was tons of them.

As of late, however, LL has been royally screwing things up left and right for merchants on the MP-even in just small ways that add up-to the point that now, you might actually be hard pressed to find folks who think those advertising methods are a "worthy cost of business, albeit it perhaps less effective than desired". Now you'll find more who say "I stopped paying for that advertising...." because of the nonchalant way LL tends to treat MP merchants, or has been as of late (last couple years), coupled with how ineffective they really are. We're a bit low on the totem pole I suspect, and I've not much reason to think otherwise. I'd imagine the MP sales commissions and listing enhancements are rather measly compared to other revenue sources for LL so..eh...they'll get to us when they do. I am including myself here, only because I am a merchant. I'm not even really a blip on the radar-and I'm cool with that, it's a position I chose when I became a hobbyist :D 

So I imagine that LL/the lindex has taken *somewhat of a hit on the MP revenue on and off for a while, both in commission and advertising-but they dug that hole for themselves, and sometimes those effects take time to show. That's not really individuals doing anything, but rather LL's lack of doing anything substantial-ok, most things. This isn't just a knock on LL before anyone thinks it is, but, really...there's a bunch of different threads over the last few years on the merchant forum that cover this kind of topic-or rather cover it from a merchants point of view (and customer as in "do you use the landing page enhancements to shop" kind of way, if that makes sense, apologies if it doesn't). Some of them are primarily about the enhancements-and you'll see if you read far back enough into them all how things have changed as of late. Most merchants that I know who used to HEAVILY add those enhancements on their listings now don't, or only do for very few select items, primarily in the hopes that "someone will see it, though odds are good they won't buy it, they might still visit/remember my store". MOST shoppers ignore those enhanced listings, however, so..I think LL missed the mark entirely on that one (but I've always thought that, and I've always thought the cost is ridiculously high for ineffective marketing tool, or not very well thought out tool anyway)

 

How much this actually affects the lindex, I dunno, I could be way off base, I come at this from a different point of view I think. There are all kinds of variables that could be at play here and I don't think even the seemingly insignificant ones are really all that insignificant. But, I've also seen the lindex do way worse, as far as changes, and have read through most of the threads regarding it-I just don't usually post to them. I did on this one because listing enhancements/advertising was mentioned and that much I actually can comment on. 

 

Edited by Tari Landar
ooo bad, bad, bad typo

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I thought of one more thing that has crept into the picture these last couple of months -- at least for me.  I have had a fair percentage of the creators that I have been featuring on my blog for years write and tell me that they are "remarketing",  dropping their bloggers,  etc.   They were all really nice and thanked me for my work over the years etc. etc.  These are people I have been with for five to eight years or so.   Some others that I blogged for long term have just disappeared. They downsized their stores and aren't creating anything new. This isn't "just Tilia" although there might be a bit of influence there. It seems to be more general as there was no mention of Tilia or conflicts with their country's laws or any of that. 

 

So, if  a larger proportion of creators are downsizing we "could" postulate that they are likely selling less on the Marketplace -- and inworld.     I am not really paying attention to sales but I just did some quick calculations and my sales appear to be down 10 - 12 percent of "norm". BUT it should be noted that I haven't made a ton of new things in the last few months or been in any events --- so that could easily be the reason IN MY CASE.

 

 

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I have theorized that there may be less creators, even if the listing numbers on MP keep going up, as we should expect them to, the number of merchants overall may very well have stagnated. But that goes right back to my previous point that merchants are really low on LL's totem pole, especially MP merchants, and probably the last ones considered when making any business decisions. (I'm not even sure we're the millionth ones considered when making "marketplace only" decisions...but that's just a working theory I've had for some time, since they, clearly, don't listen to us). 

I don't know if general sales across the board for merchants are averaging less and less, but if so, that too would definitely affect the lindex. Thinking about it more, though, I think the biggest source of change is the way fees have changed in the last couple of years, and the effects have just taken some serious time to start showing up. LL may get more money out of those that cash out than they ever have, but I have a very strong suspicion that they're getting less and less people cashing out, and less cash out transactions in general because of those fees.  That might be worth considering too, I suppose, how the fee increases have really affected people. 

Prok is right in that I, like some others,  don't come at this as a person who cashes out-so that portion is entirely me guessing. I haven't cashed out in a very long time. My $L paid my rl bills for a good while-we had a great run, but once that was no longer necessary I stopped cashing out entirely. Any $L I find in my account now goes right back into the wallets of other residents, not mine. I also don't buy $L though, because I don't really have to. If I want something, I use whatever $L I already have. If it's not enough, I wait until it is, if it never is..then I guess I don't really need whatever it was :D 

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54 minutes ago, Chic Aeon said:

I don't KNOW anyone that is in "non-Tilia" mode so far as cashing out,

There just might be more of us around than you suspect. 

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if it has anything to do with the recent fee changes. Cost to BUY increased. Cost for Premium membership was increased quite a bit. I never use my linden home...not really sure where the benefits really lie...a few extra groups? laughs. Does anyone even go to premium only lands? We tried that. It was very...desolate.  Increased message caps, but mine are always capped either way so that didn't seem to help. Then again maybe its an offset that LL put in place because of the costs to them to create/provide the Sunshine Project. shrugs...who knows...though I'm curious how well that is working out. 

As for MP. I feel like its a number of things that would cause the sales to fluctuate. Lets just say the item is of decent quality and a desirable item. Many people who use MP do not know a lot about what it offers or how to use it in a way that will bring users to their item. Many users do not take the time to complete key factors. (I have been guilty of this myself) though I have learned a lot over the past year by clicking the available links in my MP account and find quite a a few things useful. Its cheaper to sell on MP than rent a place in world so, I have no idea why people opt for in-world sales. Maybe larger chains do better in-world, but there is a lot of sellers that aren't large businesses. Either way you look at it the money is at some point spent and eventually cashed out. Which LL makes money on. UNLESS there are users selling privately that are causing a large offset.

Thats my 2 cents and bag of rocks...

~Tali~

 

Edited by PrincessTali
redundant run on sentence

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2 hours ago, Prokofy Neva said:

A problem with these discussions is that people commenting a) don't cash out, but only buy so they like it if the Linden has a low value against the dollar b) cash out small amounts or rarely c) don't understand how money works.

First of all, it hasn't been 250 in years; it has been 253-254 in the last year. And that's significant. It can seem like "a few points" that mean nothing -- until it does.

Errrrrrt.....~ means around. Which means....I'm rounding. So around 250, is accurate. The problem with people being all hyperbolic is exactly what you ended up saying. The difference between 3-4 Lindens....even on a larger scale is still going to amount to 1.5 Grandes. So from looking at your click-baity title it amounts to a small amount, even if you're dealing with a larger number. So like I said...hyperbolic.

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3 minutes ago, PrincessTali said:

As for MP. I feel like its a number of things that would cause the sales to fluctuate. Lets just say the item is of decent quality and a desirable item. Many people who use MP do not know a lot about what it offers or how to use it in a way that will bring users to their item. Many users do not take the time to complete key factors. (I have been guilty of this myself) though I have learned a lot over the past year by clicking the available links in my MP account and find quite a a few things useful. Its cheaper to sell on MP than rent a place in world so, I have no idea why people opt for in-world sales. There are groups of people who will ONLY sell in world. I don't understand that myself as my best sales are on MP and it costs to rent a place to sell in-world. Maybe larger chains do better in-world, but there is a lot of sellers that aren't large businesses. Either way you look at it the money is at some point spent and eventually cashed out. Which LL makes money on. UNLESS there are users selling privately that are causing a large offset.

Some people still prefer to shop inworld. 

My sales are about one third main store and two thirds marketplace.   When I was doing events, SOME events definitely brought in a big chunk of revenue.   

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I shop mainly on MP myself, but admittedly prefer a link to see the item in world...or demo for clothing. I learned the hard way when I joined that not everything that looks good fits my body...and not everything that is for my body will fit good 🙂

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2 hours ago, Tari Landar said:

 even if the listing numbers on MP keep going up

this isn't the discussion, but seeing the amount of listed c-r-a-p that's pushing these numbers isn't making the MP a lot better, nor merchants or customers happy.

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