Prokofy Neva Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 Since another thread on "the effect of Bellissaria on the land business" was closed (but only at the OP's request and a Linden offered to re-open it), let's revisit not just that topic, but in general, the land business, and how it is doing. For me, the focus is mainly on Mainland, but not only. Without the kinds of economic statistics the Lindens used to give us, it can be very hard to tell. One way is to look at Tyche Shepherd's reports, which are wonderful and invaluable. Here's the latest (for some reasons gridsurvey.com isn't loading but I took it from cache). Second Life Main Grid size as of 1 Sep 2019 Ownership Total General Moderate Adult Offline Total Area (km²) Total 24264 2859 15184 6210 11 1590.17 Linden Owned 8113 1716 5911 485 1 531.69 Private Estates 16151 1143 9273 5725 10 1058.47 Summary Charts (Click to view): Other Key Statistics: 57% of Mainland owned directly by Linden Accounts (Contiguous Mainland is 6806 regions including Linden Home regions) 20.7% to 21.4% of Mainland by area is abandoned parcels (details - 11th Jan 2017) 55.5% of Private Estate regions are Full Regions, 43.9% Homesteads & 0.6% Openspaces(details including top 20 Estates - 15th Jan 2017) Monthly Tier Estimates - Private Estates c.US$2.970 Million, Mainland c.US$0.704 Million As of Jan 2017 36914 Linden Homes are occupied (details - 11th Jan 2017) on twitter for up to date announcements Top 10 Estates by number of regions (15th Jan 2017) The Top 10 Estates by number of regions held are as follows: Richmond Land Management 6.2% Azure Islands (ACS) 4.9% Dreamseeker Estates 4.9% Zoha Islands 4.2% Surreal Chung (ACS) 3.1% Weezles Real Estate (WRE) 3.0% Victoria Chung (ACS) 2.9% Miriam Chung (ACS) 2.5% Lorena Chung (ACS) 1.8% Fruit Islands Estate 1.7% N.B. Known ACS holdings are 16.7% Land barons are only 50% of island holdings? The rest are end-users? Anybody? From this, I see mainland is actually now not 5,000 but 6800; the Lindens own half of that, which means all kinds of things, various roads and waterways but also abandoned land and Linden Homes. But since she says 20% is abandoned, that means there are about 5400 sims on the Mainland that are "viable" -- I can't figure out from this how many are actually Linden Homes or businesses/rentals, but maybe someone knows . So the question is: what percentage of the Mainland is owned by end-users and business owners including rentals businesses? And the answer is -- probably most of the 3400 owned by residents. I'm assuming that "Linden-owned" means the Linden Homes as well, although when you take them, you become the owner and pay tier. It would be helpful if a land Linden could explain that (or Tyche). So my impression is, that just as there are more private estates now, for various reasons, there is more Mainland, or less abandoned, that it has not continued in the death spiral some imagine. But it is hard to know how this is impacted when a) we don't know how many land businesses and end-users are on the Mainland (how that 3400 breaks down) b) whether it is Bellissaria or other factors affecting it. So if half of the sims on the Mainland are now in premium account hands, and the other half are Governor Linden infrastructure and abandoned, I think that means the world is a little healthier. But how and in what direction? So all I can do is give anecdotal examples from the last two weeks about 20 of my own tenants. Every time someone moves out or refunds, I do an exit-interview just to see if they left for some fixable reason -- some people refund in a huff if a fellow tenant puts up some huge build that in fact I would remove but they don't realize it; some people don't understand a rolling restart is not the permanent death of a sim; some people face frustrations with prims returning and don't realize they have to join a group, etc. etc. So I try to eliminate those frustrations so the person can return if possible. NEGATIVE (move outs, move-downs, disappearances, and RL reasons) - Total - 12 1 - moved to cheaper lot due to lag 2 - MIA (I see this fairly often -- accounts completely disappear, i.e. you can no longer find their names in the list, or they never return). 3 - RL demand, can't be in SL (this time of year, people seem to have to resume more commitments with school and jobs) 1 - buying 1/8 sim - note: not all purchases are Linden Homes; the homestead or the larger and more expensive private island is still desirable as a step-up from a Mainland rental; BTW this tenant had been in my Mainland rentals for literally years -- all kinds of factors go into move-up or move-down, often related to SL relationships. 1 - can't terraform to suit - move out - this happens especially with newer people. They can't get the land to flatten like a pancake -- because it doesn't on Mainland! They get frustrated, and go to an island or give up entirely. 2 - no reason given (but haven't moved elsewhere) 2 - moving to adult for fear of ARs (I only have one small adult area as I don't want the expense or trouble, and this is a chronic problem) POSITIVE - Total - 12 2 - asked for 100 more prims 1 - can't pay new premium rate with donated tier - but came back then soon 1 - can't pay rent in cash - but then came back 1 - kept rental, bought Belissaria in addition 2 - return after long absence to SL 1 - added another rental to existing 2 1 - move to larger one of our lots 3 - brand-new tenants, some only 2-3 months in age So I could conclude from this that Bellissaria has no effect or little effect but then I don't know everything, and it's just my slice of life. There are also hundreds of people who in fact stayed in their rentals happily -- if there were way more negative than positive for months in a row, I would sell land or quit. But it has its ups and downs, and I will say that the one thing I notice still trending up is people using their 1024 to contribute tier and pay for a rental in my system; I also don't see as many moves to private islands, but who knows what that means (I only have one private island and one homestead). But here's another thing I noticed -- again, anecdotally. While it is ALWAYS a bad idea to buy land when the Lindens are making changes -- which they are doing by throwing 800 sims online with customers taking away at least something from rentals and Mainland sales -- I did buy land in this period "to save the view" and because I saw some great opportunities. But I also sold a lot of land the minute the Lindens announced they were increasing the premium rates and adding more Linden Homes. That's the prudent thing to do. So I can't really speak of any great shrink or addition, and it's just a "wait and see" sort of things. But because I had occasion to deal with land barons for the first time in quite awhile, it was interesting to hear them out: they view Bellissaria as a direct, powerful hit on their business, and are either winding it down in places or lowering prices or trying to pressure people like me to buy more. I'm not sure why this is, but I think it *might* be because they are selling smaller parcels, and trying to advertise parcels as being "free tier" if 1120 meters with the premium account much more. That's new -- I never saw that in 15 years of SL, which means they are competing directly for customers. Thus, it's not rental agents so much as land sellers impacted by Bellissaria. Overall, I see a trend of renting smaller parcels as well. I've broken up many of the 8192s I used to rent out as is. Another big impact on the land sellers appears to be the resident auctions. But then they themselves use this system, in ways I don't fully understand. I had the naive idea that the resident auctions would be a wonderful of end-users selling to end-users but of course it is not. There are mysterious things that happen here -- I see a resident auction. I see prime land going for $1/m because somebody unloaded it at that price. I see non-land barons picking it up and re-selling. Now, how do I know that? Because I recognize some of the people; some are even tenants. Then I see land barons ultimately acquiring that land and re-selling for a higher price -- but waiting forever -- months and months, probably past the prudent time for them to hold all that land. So only the Lindens know what impact resident auctions have -- but maybe someone has an educated guess. Mainland land sales are not what they were once -- due to abandoned land. And the Lindens have really stepped up their game here and now sell it within 24-48 hours, whereas before it might take 7 days or more. And they sell even waterfront and parcels larger than 512, which I don't recall them doing as much. To be sure, they usually want you to have land adjacent to it, or for it to be too odd shaped for them to put on the auction, but sell it they do, for $1. I also see their auctions picking up. I haven't tested this, but I think you can find some waterfront abandoned here and there and ask to buy it and likely you will get it. There are some people who watch for these opportunities, and are also like garbage men, who in the dead of night will accept your land for .5/m or less (yes, it sells for less) -- and thank God for them, as they give the market liquidity and prevent abandoning, and likely make something or they wouldn't do this. Remember Weedy? Who seems to have disappeared. She and a few others were those kind of scrappers who went around picking up bargains and reselling them at low margins and thereby making a buck. Those kind of sellers completely disappeared for awhile in the epidemic of abandoned land, but they are back. That's all I got. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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