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49 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I'm going to reword Molly's riddle, twice, to show what I find so interesting about it:

1)
I'm holding a bag of two cards. One is blue on both sides. One is blue on one side, red on the other.
I pull one card from the bag and place it on the table. It's showing a blue face. What's the probability that the card's hidden face is is blue?

B)
I'm holding a bag of 1000 cards. One is blue on both sides. One is blue on one side, red on the other. The rest are red on both sides.
I pull one card from the bag and place it on the table. It's showing a blue face. What's the probability that the card's hidden face is is blue?

 None, because you didn't say the cards were blue. The way these are worded you could be saying the bag is blue with a red interior. That makes it blue on both (out) sides as well as blue on one (in)side and red on the other (in)side.

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Posted (edited)

giphy.gif?cid=8fc3c8975d35f6097264487749

This is how I felt today after eating the most delicious bacon and cheese scone in the world from this little shop down the street from my office.

Randoms are fun.

ETA where did my gif go? It was Nicholas Cage dammit! How does one get gifs to imbed properly?

Edited by Eva Knoller
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16 minutes ago, Eva Knoller said:

giphy.gif?cid=8fc3c8975d35f6097264487749

This is how I felt today after eating the most delicious bacon and cheese scone in the world from this little shop down the street from my office.

Randoms are fun.

ETA where did my gif go? It was Nicholas Cage dammit! How does one get gifs to imbed properly?

Like this:

giphy.gif

 

Right click to open the image in a new tab than copy/paste the url into the 'insert other media'. Don't use the url you get when you click the icon for one. They don't work on this forum that way.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Eva Knoller said:

Giphy is funky that way. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. I usually will look for another source and use that if I can find one, rather than Giphy

Edited by Selene Gregoire
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Eva Knoller said:

giphy.gif?cid=8fc3c8975d35f6097264487749

This is how I felt today after eating the most delicious bacon and cheese scone in the world from this little shop down the street from my office.

Randoms are fun.

ETA where did my gif go? It was Nicholas Cage dammit! How does one get gifs to imbed properly?

is dangerous to show moving pics of Nic

number-people-who-drowned-by-falling-int

source: http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=359

Edited by Fionalein
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11 hours ago, JIMOTHY23 said:

[Moderator Edit: Names Removed] LIED FOR SO THAT [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] GET FAME ON VIRTUAL WORLD. IN REAL LIFE [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] HAS BEEN FIGHTING  [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] ON SECOND LIFE SINCE DAY ONE BUT THE MAIN POINT HERE IS THAT [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] WAS BEST OF FRIENDS. SO [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] TOLD SECOND LIFE VIRTUAL WORLD THAT [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] WAS THE CAMERA GUY RECORDING [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] BEATING UP [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] SO THAT [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] GET FAME & SO HE DID WORD GOT AROUND FROM [Moderator Edit: Names Removed]  FIGHTING ON [Moderator Edit: Names Removed]  BROUGHT UP THE FIGHT VIDEO LIKE YEA ***** [Moderator Edit: Names Removed] SLAUGHTERED U.

OMG. This is the like the funniest thing ever! It must have taken a half hour to remove all those names!

 

Well played, moderator! Well played!

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Fionalein said:

Bayesian

there is a bag containing an unknown number of cards

a card is randomly drawn and placed on a table. Red faced cards are discarded. Blue faced cards are turned over.

thru trials we observe that the turned over face is blue 50% of the time and red the other 50%

from this we can calculate the probable least number of cards in the bag and the arrangement of the blue and red faces

 

Edited by Mollymews
probable

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Selene Gregoire said:

 None, because you didn't say the cards were blue. The way these are worded you could be saying the bag is blue with a red interior. That makes it blue on both (out) sides as well as blue on one (in)side and red on the other (in)side.

i gave this a bit of thought, as it leads to introducing a new (environmental) factor. The lining of the bag affects the color faces of the card

in the first case (the 2/3) when the environment can randomly (uniformly) flip both faces to the opposite color  then the probability 2/3 is unchanged

in the second case (the baynesian 1/2) then under these environmental conditions (flipping both faces) the upturned face will can always be red 

 

edit: i edited this as it wasn't clear what i wrote

Edited by Mollymews
flipping both

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mollymews said:

silver ferns won the netball world cup \o/

....shame they were not given an upgrade for their victory flight trip home!

Edited by CheriColette
spelling correction

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Why if there is cereal that turns milk into chocolate milk is there not cereal that turns water into milk?

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