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BrendonFreeman

How far do you think 2nd Life could evolve?

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Posted (edited)

It will only evolve as long as the revenue comes in.  I doubt it will last another 15 years though.  I don't know of any multiplayer game or online world that is 30 years old.  The feeling i got from LL, was that Virtual Reality was going to bring in an entire new userbase to Sansar, while leaving SL to fade out on the side.  This was probably their vision and "evolution" of SL and it's userbase.  The problem is, it hasn't been widely adopted yet.  Linden Lab was actually developing a VR Viewer for SL but then abandoned it and focused on Sansar,  because they see it as the future.  Whether it happens, is yet to be seen, but it's not looking good for Sansar or any other virtual reality world out there.  The only one with mild success is VR Chat.

Edited by femhalf

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16 minutes ago, femhalf said:

I don't know of any multiplayer game or online world that is 30 years old.

Active Worlds is 23 years old and still going so it is possible.

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Windows is 33 years old.  It's been upgraded steadily, without an incompatible break, for all that time.

SL may change internally, but the users and content must be maintained. Sansar shows what happens if you try to develop an all new user base.

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Posted (edited)

With an ever-shrinking middle and working class I see fewer people every year/month willing to spend money on virtual land because they need it more for RL rent, car payments, medical bills, drugs, internet/phone bills and/or groceries. Just keeping it real, heh.

Edited by Lucia Nightfire
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5 hours ago, animats said:

Windows is 33 years old.  It's been upgraded steadily, without an incompatible break, for all that time.

SL may change internally, but the users and content must be maintained. Sansar shows what happens if you try to develop an all new user base.

From one version to the next? Maybe (although there were plenty of issues with the Vista roll-out.)

Are things written for Windows 3.1 directly usable on Windows 10? No.

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7 hours ago, femhalf said:

... Linden Lab was actually developing a VR Viewer for SL but then abandoned it and focused on Sansar,  because they see it as the future.  Whether it happens, is yet to be seen, but it's not looking good for Sansar or any other virtual reality world out there.  The only one with mild success is VR Chat.

Does LL still consider Sansar the future ? 

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I don't understand why LL still hasn't stopped the bleeding from Sansar. There's just no user growth there despite announcement after announcement of supposed game-changing features.

The only explanation I can devise would be that the Lab is clinging to a hope of selling-off the technology if some company who hasn't yet invested decides to add a VR platform to their portfolio. The thing is, though, there are already way more VR platforms than can hope to survive.  The "Drax Files Radio Hour" has lately reviewed a VR platform every week, each more desperate-seeming than the last. It all feels hauntingly like the dark fibre glut of the early 2000s. 

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VR will never take off, one cannot expect to wear those glasses for hours on end, we're talking about adults not kids, SL  what most people do not understand it's not a game as such but a secondlife, a life where most cannot do in the RL, thats where the money should have been invested

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, animats said:

Windows is 33 years old.  It's been upgraded steadily, without an incompatible break, for all that time.

SL may change internally, but the users and content must be maintained. Sansar shows what happens if you try to develop an all new user base.

I remember the upgrades from win 3.11 to win NT/win 95 and win 7 to win 8... no incopatible break... LOL yeah,  I see the experts are talking...

Edited by Fionalein
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Sansar wasn't planned to cannibalize SL residents was it? It was more for the pro sim builders and general mass of casual users. We had that kind of design here in SL but the tech was too limiting for sim builders and casual users moved on. I think LL recognizes they have two sets of target audiences. Obviously they have enough SL users but Sansar's audience is a work in progress. Will 2nd Life evolve further than it has already evolved? I think so. As long as the flow of money exists and nothing comes along that is better. Again Sansar is not designed to be the better SL.

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Sansar has now been on Steam for 3 months and here are the stats from Steam Charts. .

From the looks of things when Sansar launched on Stream there was some interest with a peak of 72 (players) in early December 2018. Since then the numbers have been pretty low with peaks here and there. 

The latest peak was on 4th March 2019 with 44 players online

Month Avg. Players Gain % Gain Peak Players
Last 30 Days 10.2 +0.0 -0.09% 44
February 2019 10.2 -1.6 -13.81% 34
January 2019 11.9 -10.3 -46.38% 30
December 2018 22.1 - - 72

Sansar Stats March 2019.PNG

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1 hour ago, Bree Giffen said:

 We had that kind of design here in SL but the tech was too limiting for sim builders

I have yet to see something in Sansar that can't be achieved in SL besides some lighting effects. Sansar doesn't have an audience, it never had an audience and will never have an audience. There's like 10 people in the whole world trying to keep it active and I'm pretty sure that 9 of those are Medhue 😅

The most creative thing going on in Sansar right now is the overall multiple experience installation that's exploring the notion of human abandonment in a virtual world. That and the fun fun game of chuck the donut.

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Sansar is failing because it's first and foremost designed for VR users and not for desktop users.  It's not just Sansar though, but i've seen this in all the other VR startups, such as VR Chat, High Fidelity, and Altspace VR.  You have to wonder why these devs would jump straight into VR design when it's such a niche segment.  They're doing everything in reverse.  They should be building the platform for desktop users first, then slowly develop for VR users as the VR userbase becomes adopted by more people.

Linden Lab had it right the first time when they were developing their VR viewer for SL.  I tried it with the Oculus Rift and it was actually amazing.  This was probably four years ago, but imagine if they continued to develop it further.  It would've been refined and stable by now.  On the other hand, i'm not a developer though, so there was probably technical VR limitations in SL preventing further development.

TL;DR:  Develop for desktop users first, then gradually develop for VR users.

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SL is  what it is"a secondlife for most"  and as long as LL keeps it fresh they will have always have a following, VR is really not for the masses of adults. LL should plough their resources in SL

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Depends, I think SL could thrive for quite awhile next decade or so. However, that's if LL decide to update  their engine.And quit investing so much on a dead product like Sansar.

VR isn't gonna be worth money looking at until another decade.

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On 3/7/2019 at 1:30 PM, Qie Niangao said:

I don't understand why LL still hasn't stopped the bleeding from Sansar. There's just no user growth there

Ouch from the link - 

  • Today's peak is 18 and average is 8 people
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On 3/7/2019 at 12:46 AM, animats said:

Windows is 33 years old.  It's been upgraded steadily, without an incompatible break, for all that time.

SL may change internally, but the users and content must be maintained. Sansar shows what happens if you try to develop an all new user base.

I have old DOS programs that absolutely will not run on 64-bit Windows. Because it no longer supports 16-bit programs.

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I believe Microsoft has made big mistakes,   internet explorer is now 2nd to chrome, Microsoft 365 is losing ground to google docs, and Windows 10 is a joke compared to Windows 64

VR is for teenagers, SL is based for adults I hope LL invest more into 

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4 hours ago, greek Wingtips said:

I believe Microsoft has made big mistakes,   internet explorer is now 2nd to chrome, Microsoft 365 is losing ground to google docs, and Windows 10 is a joke compared to Windows 64

VR is for teenagers, SL is based for adults I hope LL invest more into 

Windows 64? I think you mean Windows 10 64bit.

Where do the rules say that VR is for teenagers? 

What galaxy do you live in? o.O

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Selene Gregoire said:

What galaxy do you live in? o.O

We can only hope its one far far away

VR is definitely not for teenagers and it shows slow steady growth as can be seen from the steam surveys. It certainly didnt explode as some of the more excitable predicted but as the average pc gets better and there are more and more stand alone vr options like the oculus go, quest and vive focus then it will continue to grow and at some point be regarded as mainstream.

Sansar on the other hand was always a solution looking for a problem and therefore stillborn

Edited by KanryDrago

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Posted (edited)
On 3/7/2019 at 5:37 AM, femhalf said:

It will only evolve as long as the revenue comes in.  I doubt it will last another 15 years though.  I don't know of any multiplayer game or online world that is 30 years old.  The feeling i got from LL, was that Virtual Reality was going to bring in an entire new userbase to Sansar, while leaving SL to fade out on the side.  This was probably their vision and "evolution" of SL and it's userbase.  The problem is, it hasn't been widely adopted yet.  Linden Lab was actually developing a VR Viewer for SL but then abandoned it and focused on Sansar,  because they see it as the future.  Whether it happens, is yet to be seen, but it's not looking good for Sansar or any other virtual reality world out there.  The only one with mild success is VR Chat.

 

"bring an entire userbase"

 

 

Edited by DarkRavenWolfie

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On 3/8/2019 at 11:24 PM, Haselden said:

Depends, I think SL could thrive for quite awhile next decade or so. However, that's if LL decide to update  their engine.And quit investing so much on a dead product like Sansar.

VR isn't gonna be worth money looking at until another decade.

 

 

honestly they should rather scrap Sansar altogether and bring that engine into SL because for whatever reason Sansar isnt as much of a lagcity than SL

 

then again it was probably because Sansar for the most part is a ghost town

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