Second Life on Steam?

[animats]

5 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

I feel excited about Sansar because I think it's a good plan and will be the way VR is utilized in the future, and I think it's way too soon to claim Sansar has failed. But whether LL will implement their plan well, or whether the time is right for such a preponderance of VR is another matter.

That's what scares me. Yes, Sansar has no users now, but someday... That's an excuse for pouring more money down the money drain and neglecting SL.

VR is a niche product with this generation of hardware. It's the new 3D TV. Even the successful VR games, such as Beat Saber, have only a few thousand users. Maybe 5 years out, there might be better hardware. But we're 5 years into Oculus development, and it hasn't improved much. We're 30 years into VR headsets, and they're still a pain.

This is the reality of Sansar usage. For a free product. Can't even give it away.

It's time to pull the plug.

[Luna Bliss]

1 hour ago, animats said:

That's what scares me. Yes, Sansar has no users now, but someday... That's an excuse for pouring more money down the money drain and neglecting SL.

VR is a niche product with this generation of hardware. It's the new 3D TV. Even the successful VR games, such as Beat Saber, have only a few thousand users. Maybe 5 years out, there might be better hardware. But we're 5 years into Oculus development, and it hasn't improved much. We're 30 years into VR headsets, and they're still a pain.

This is the reality of Sansar usage. For a free product. Can't even give it away.

It's time to pull the plug.

The old and tiring metaphor of equating VR with 3D TV persists for a few, but VR/AR is not a fad...it's the evolution of the internet.

I think you need to get onto some other forums where VR enthusiasts congregate to fully understand how appealing VR is to many.
VR/AR is steadily growing now, though not as fast as was predicted by some. If you look at educational and medical applications you will see all the ways VR/AR is being used even now, and learn of future plans to include even more VR in these industries.
We're not 30 years into the current iteration of VR headsets (headsets that are for home use -- easier to use than the old ones, and less expensive). The current iteration only began in 2015 or so.
High-end VR headsets like the Vive and Oculus keep improving, as well as mid to low-end headsets for Playstation & other types that require mobile phones.

I see VR/AR like a baby being born, coming in waves that manifest like labor pains and then die down -- the fact that they die down does not mean VR is failing, rather the coming back over and over again is evidence that something is trying to be born. We only had to wait for better PC power and price reductions to allow for home use & the steady momentum that follows.

But to your other point, about LL neglecting SL, I'm not sure pouring more money into SL would bring in new people. It might make some of us already here have more fun, but we'd stay around anyway so why should they spend the money?  I have one big exception to the idea that not much can be done to attract/keep new users though, and that is the avatar problem -- I imagine this turns away new users due to the excessive complexity of the process and the expense.
I see LL as taking a chance on the evolving internet as they realize SL can only be updated so much. It might be too soon for VR/AR though is the problem.

[Fionalein]

4 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

The old and tiring metaphor of equating VR with 3D TV persists for a few, but VR/AR is not a fad...it's the evolution of the internet.

Have you read too much historical SciFi? Neuromancer was a nice read but the future of the net will be different.

[Luna Bliss]

11 minutes ago, Fionalein said:

17 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

The old and tiring metaphor of equating VR with 3D TV persists for a few, but VR/AR is not a fad...it's the evolution of the internet.

Have you read too much historical SciFi? Neuromancer was a nice read but the future of the net will be different.

I have not read a whole lot of SciFi really...a bit.

So do inform us regarding the future of the net...what will it be like?

[Fionalein]

10 minutes ago, Luna Bliss said:

So do inform us regarding the future of the net...what will it be like?

I have no idea but it will most likely be compatible with a low intellect - just look at what that company with the nibbled fruit sells best Do not underestimate the brainwashed masses, those dictate the market, no fancy fantasy will. Also it must be able to transport porn... there was a big hype about VR porn but even that didn't pave the way for VR so my educated guess on VR's marketing potential is: "meh!"

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by Fionalein

[Luna Bliss]

3 minutes ago, Fionalein said:

Do not underestmate the brainwashed masses

lolol

[Parhelion Palou]

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

The old and tiring metaphor of equating VR with 3D TV persists for a few, but VR/AR is not a fad...it's the evolution of the internet.

You've been in SL long enough. Don't you remember the BS people were spouting back when SL was at the peak of its hype wave? The internet was going to a big virtual world. We'd shop in virtual stores just like we shop in real ones. People would hold business meetings in virtual worlds. Companies were jumping in like crazy for fear they'd miss the next big thing. (CEOs have *got* to be the most gullible people on Earth when it comes to technology.) What came of it? We're not all in virtual worlds because they're not efficient. If you want to buy something, use a search engine to find what you're after, get the best price, and buy it. There's no need to spend hours wandering around virtual stores. Why get in a virtual world to go to a meeting? It's done much better in real life with teleconference rooms or even webcams. I've heard that some people even talk face-to-face with no electronic assistance at all. Those Luddites! 😉

VR got hyped too soon. It's now dead to the mass market. Facebook put the Rift 2 on the shelf. FB is pushing cheaper standalone VR goggles, and the biggest use of those is watching movies. I don't know why, but that's what FB claims. AR has a  shot, but I suspect it'll mostly be as an assistive technology. AR could tell me that the familiar-looking person coming toward me is one of my sons. AR could warn me to step back because a self-driving car is headed toward me on the sidewalk. Useful information.

[Klytyna]

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

I think you need to get onto some other forums where VR enthusiasts congregate to fully understand how

...How similar the Vom-Cam fanbois are to the old BetaMax VideoTape crew...

"Yeah BetaMax is the FUTURE... VHS will never last, they'll all come flocking back to BetaMax any day now...

Hey whats that thing that you have there? DVD? WTH is a DVD...

OMFG! The World ENDED, BetaMax is DEAD!"

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

VR/AR is steadily growing now, though not as fast as was predicted by some. If you look at educational and medical applications you will see all the ways VR/AR is being used even now

Again, go back and check... *I* told you vom-cammers LAST year, that VR would be useful for stuff like keyhole surgery, augmenting a surgeons vision with the ultra-sound/xray scans of the patient, without them having to look away at a screen.

But the educational market is pretty lame, dependent as it is on the concept of "internet learning", which is practically a contradiction in terms.

But even medical/educational vom-cam having *some* uses, in specialised areas does NOT equate to "Vom-Cam is the Futireness, soon we'll all be using it for everything", and certainly doesn't hold the promise of commercial success for Project Stupid's out of date technology.

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

I see VR/AR like a baby being born, coming in waves that manifest like labor pains

Ah! The kind that kills it's mother before it's finally hacked via a c-section, still born from it's mothers body, but too late to save the mother from haemoraging to death because the surgeon dithered, as to the possibility of saving the still born mutant brat...

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

I have not read a whole lot of SciFi really...a bit.

So do inform us regarding the future of the net...what will it be like?

Amazon, NetFlix, Thickapedia, and "Wicked Wanda's Weird-o-Rama Webcams - All kinks catered for..."...

10 minutes ago, Parhelion Palou said:

(CEOs have *got* to be the most gullible people on Earth when it comes to technology.)

That's because the Corporate Standard Method, for selecting new CEO's pretty much guarantees that they will, from a practical standpoint, be functionally Tech-Illiterate.

More than a 30 years ago, when I got started in Corporate IT, there was a small poster on the wall in the department...

"There are TWO kinds of people in IT...

Those who UNDERSTAND what they do NOT manage...

Those who MANAGE what they do NOT understand..."

2 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

and that is the avatar problem -- I imagine this turns away new users due to the excessive complexity of the process and the expense

See, you "lol'd" at Fiona's comment...

2 hours ago, Fionalein said:

Do not underestimate the brainwashed masses, those dictate the market, no fancy fantasy will.

... But you your self then admit that "excessive complexity" deters new users.

Thing is, avatars in Slare NOT "exessively complex" unless... You are one of the MMO's, the Many Moron's Online.

When I got a mesh body, I didn't spend days researching, or reading forums posts, or watching spewtube tutorial videos, to figure how I was supposed to wear it.

A friend tp'd me to the store, bought me the body, and I spent 30 mins sorting it out, setting up folders and a basic outfit, applying the skin with the applier that came with my system skin, editing my shape so my new fitted mesh body would fit in side my old non fitted Standard sizes clothing so I'd have something to wear until I got new clothes.

It's NOT rocket science, if you can wear a pair of  Viewer 2 compatible Prim Boots with an Alpha layer to hide your system feet, you can wear a mesh body.

But go look at the "Avatar Forum" here, and see  how many old people from the Viewer 2 era can't cope, see how many noobs can't cope.

Morons rule the Web, from the BS pages on Thickapedia, to the marketing decisions of the ApeHole Muck corporation.

...

And THIS is where Vom-Cam fails, same as the "31 Flavours of Whinux" fails.

The Morons look at the web page telling them how to install compile, and run Whinux and go "Huh?" and by an iSpend Dumbfone instead.

They look at the setup instructions for VomCam from Overpriced Geek Goggles Inc, and the hardware spec, and go "Huh?"  and use their iSpend to Gurgle for wow-fab-groovy iSpend compatible plug-watch AR glasses.

30 minutes ago, Parhelion Palou said:

VR got hyped too soon. It's now dead to the mass market.

Damn right.
 

[Callum Meriman]

Just now, Klytyna said:

Morons rule the Web

They rule the real world too. Kly.

[Qie Niangao]

2 hours ago, Parhelion Palou said:

AR has a  shot, but I suspect it'll mostly be as an assistive technology. AR could tell me that the familiar-looking person coming toward me is one of my sons. AR could warn me to step back because a self-driving car is headed toward me on the sidewalk. Useful information.

AR will be the best advertising medium imaginable, paying to create absolutely any content that keeps consumers looking through an AR projection. It will also simply subsume all other advertising.

But none of this will apply to wearing an octopus on your face. That technology was dead before it started, and that was always abundantly obvious to any damned fool.

[Callum Meriman]

Just now, Fionalein said:

Also it must be able to transport porn... there was a big hype about VR porn but even that didn't pave the way for VR so my educated guess on VR's marketing potential is: "meh!"

Porn on VR is a bit difficult because of the tech, and it's limitations.

The biggest problem I see is that setting up the headset, starting the VR application, waiting for the lighthouses to sync, turning on one wand, and sliding the thing over your head to finally start the movie app takes a few minutes - minutes that could be spent in other ways.

Then there is the huge, huge fact that you can't see anyone who sneaks into your room. (There are even flat-screen porns using this premise)

And the models... tend to be heavily tattooed, old, and bearded (and the guys are even worse then this). VR Porn really seems to grab the dregs of the porn performing world.

[chibiusa Ling]

5 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

The old and tiring metaphor of equating VR with 3D TV persists for a few, but VR/AR is not a fad...it's the evolution of the internet.

I guess it is a fad in a way in its current iteration. The comparison of the 3D TV to VR is acceptable given that 3D TV was once in the same position, being super hyped as THE next best thing but then after an initial "OHHHHHH" and "AHHHHHH" failed to take off in any meaningful way and I think it was 20-30% of people who viewed 3D TV experienced some kind of sickness which is comparable to the issue facing VR at the moment. There wasn't exactly a crap ton of stuff for 3D TV, much in the same way that VR...whilst growing in software...doesn't exactly offer all that much once you get past the few initial "OOOHHH" "AHHHHH" titles they showcase. On top of that VR doesn't offer much in the way of value, imo, once you break down just what exactly VR is at this moment in time. Which is a glorified up close monitor with hand held controllers that let you look around and point and interact with things. You can do all this with a normal keyboard, mouse, monitor. The only difference really is a slight change of perspective and experience in how you actually interact but the basic mechanisms are still the same.....monitors, controllers etc etc. Maybe in years to come if VR gets to the point that lets say.....Ready Player One was at with the treadmill type deal for running around etc etc etc then yeah I can see it being a big hit. As it stands, the hardware and overall experience needs to improve a lot before I see it gaining widespread mainstream acceptance. Calling it the evolution of the internet however?. Nah, as it stands AR will probably take that spot over VR as it has more real life application at the moment. I mean which realistically would most people choose in terms of the internet, walking round with VR goggles on browsing the web in a 3D virtual environment...or wearing AR glasses that you can take out with you as you browse, shop, video chat but all projected into the world around you.

5 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

If you look at educational and medical applications you will see all the ways VR/AR is being used even now, and learn of future plans to include even more VR in these industries

THAT is probably the only two area in which VR will grow and even then.....most doctors iv heard of are actually using AR technology to perform medical procedures. 

5 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

We're not 30 years into the current iteration of VR headsets (headsets that are for home use -- easier to use than the old ones, and less expensive). The current iteration only began in 2015 or so.

She never said current iteration she said "We're 30 years into VR headsets and they are still a pain". If you want to go technical VR has its roots in Steroscopic Viewers but the first attempt at VR in a electronic sense was I think back in the 60s with stereoscopic 3D vision and sound and towards the end of that era was when the first Virtual Reality headset was developed which ran very basic computer generated environments. Then from there you have the late 80s early 90s VR arcade machines, Segas VR headset from the 90s, Nintendos Virtual Boy etc etc. VR has been around a long time and realistically what she said is very true, it may have developed graphically with better sensors but the basic concept is still the same....headset, monitors, controllers.

5 hours ago, Luna Bliss said:

I'm not sure pouring more money into SL would bring in new people. It might make some of us already here have more fun, but we'd stay around anyway so why should they spend the money?  

To reward us for actually staying?. For supporting Linden Lab for years on end?. For dealing with the lack of care and attention they showed SL for a long period of time before they realised that Project Sansar wasn't going as well as they wanted it to?. To enable us to create bigger and better things and more interesting experiences?. To at least try and stay ahead of the game?. Second Life is Linden Lab's life blood. Without SL there would be no pet project aka Sansar and without SL there would be no more Linden Lab. They HAVE to improve it because the money we put into SL funds them not only for SL but for Project Sansar, their wages, mortgages etc etc. They literally can't abandon SL at the moment even if they wanted to, the company would fold and go out of business. SL is there only real stream of revenue. Of course they are going to improve it.

Edited December 21, 2018 by chibiusa Ling

[Luna Bliss]

On ‎12‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 7:13 PM, chibiusa Ling said:

On ‎12‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 2:08 PM, Luna Bliss said:

I'm not sure pouring more money into SL would bring in new people. It might make some of us already here have more fun, but we'd stay around anyway so why should they spend the money?  

To reward us for actually staying?. For supporting Linden Lab for years on end?. For dealing with the lack of care and attention they showed SL for a long period of time before they realised that Project Sansar wasn't going as well as they wanted it to?. To enable us to create bigger and better things and more interesting experiences?. To at least try and stay ahead of the game?. Second Life is Linden Lab's life blood. Without SL there would be no pet project aka Sansar and without SL there would be no more Linden Lab. They HAVE to improve it because the money we put into SL funds them not only for SL but for Project Sansar, their wages, mortgages etc etc. They literally can't abandon SL at the moment even if they wanted to, the company would fold and go out of business. SL is there only real stream of revenue. Of course they are going to improve it.

Happy birthday?

[Luna Bliss]

On ‎12‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 4:30 PM, Parhelion Palou said:

VR got hyped too soon. It's now dead to the mass market. Facebook put the Rift 2 on the shelf. FB is pushing cheaper standalone VR goggles, and the biggest use of those is watching movies. I don't know why, but that's what FB claims.

I'm interested in seeing if the cheaper headsets that don't require an expensive PC (the Oculus Quest and the Vive Shadow) will actually improve VR usage (Oculus stated this as their reasoning for developing mid-range VR over the high-end for now, although they still ARE developing a Rift 2, so they say. And, a Rift-S is supposed to come out in 2019 that has greater resolution and on-board tracking).

Edited December 22, 2018 by Luna Bliss

[Daniel Voyager]

The percentage of Steam users with VR headsets doubled during 2018

[Daniel Voyager]

Sansar has now been on Steam for one month.

78 reviews so far and it's been pretty mixed. 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Daniel Voyager

[Luna Bliss]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Voyager said:

The percentage of Steam users with VR headsets doubled during 2018

 

[DarkRavenWolfie]

I just wish LL would focus on fixing SL, because the **** engine still runs like a trainwreck regardless of your system or internet connection.

 

Please, just dont beat a dead horse, you still have people throwing money at you through ingame Linden Cash purchases and SL premium membership.

[Qie Niangao]

1 hour ago, DarkRavenWolfie said:

...  you still have people throwing money at you through ingame Linden Cash purchases and SL premium membership.

I completely agree with your larger point here, but please excuse my obsession with L$ currency exchange whilst I wax pedantic: Residents buying L$s bring in very little direct revenue to the Lab. There's a small transaction commission, but the bulk of the purchase price goes to some other resident who sold those L$s on the LindeX. Only if the price of L$s veers above target will the LindeX buy order be filled by Supply Linden, who maintains very large sales orders above the current target exchange rate. It's been ages since we've had sales volume metrics, but back then only a tiny share of sales were sourced by these freshly minted L$s.

That's not to say the Lab doesn't monetize the L$, but it's done more indirectly, through the other mechanism you rightly mentioned: the Premium membership. That membership amounts to a direct sale of L$s in the form of stipends. It incidentally has other benefits: land ownership, support, occasional gifts, etc., but the real business reason for the Premium membership offering is to exchange stipend L$s for those juicy US$ membership fees.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Qie Niangao

[ChinRey]

5 hours ago, Daniel Voyager said:

Sansar has now been on Steam for one month.

78 reviews so far and it's been pretty mixed.

Mixed at the moment, but the trend is clear. It started off with 80% positive reviews the first day but has been slowly dropping ever since and is now down to 58%.

[ChinRey]

40 minutes ago, Qie Niangao said:

Only if the price of L$s veers above target will the LindeX buy order be filled by Supply Linden, who maintains very large sales orders above the current target exchange rate. It's been ages since we've had sales volume metrics, but back then only a tiny share of sales were sourced by these freshly minted L$s.

I think it's safe to say that most of the Linden dollars on LindeX come from one single big seller. That's the only plausible explanation I can think why the exchange rate is as stable as it is. Not only is the minimum exchange rate conspiciously stable, the volume available at that price is also amazingly constant. Somebody msut be keeping a close eye on the market and add a few million Lindens whenever the supply at that price is getting low. That somebody isn't necessarily Linden Lab of course but it must add up to several billions of L$ a year.

 

[Fionalein]

34 minutes ago, ChinRey said:

Mixed at the moment, but the trend is clear. It started off with 80% positive reviews the first day but has been slowly dropping ever since and is now down to 58%.

Is that real or even skewed as people stopped reviewing?

[Qie Niangao]

23 minutes ago, ChinRey said:

I think it's safe to say that most of the Linden dollars on LindeX come from one single big seller. That's the only plausible explanation I can think why the exchange rate is as stable as it is. Not only is the minimum exchange rate conspiciously stable, the volume available at that price is also amazingly constant. Somebody msut be keeping a close eye on the market and add a few million Lindens whenever the supply at that price is getting low. That somebody isn't necessarily Linden Lab of course but it must add up to several billions of L$ a year.

Yeah, I gave up guessing about this. If there's a known target exchange rate, any private seller with patience will try to sell at that rate, so orders will pile up there until they're so deep that a seller knows they'll wait too long to clear, and resign themselves to bidding one L$ more per US$.

Or there may be a very different LindeX than there was when we last had metrics. IIRC, the Lab didn't even own Marketplace back then, so sources and sinks were completely different from what they are now. With enriched sinks (e.g., L$-denominated Marketplace commissions), there's more demand for sources (e.g., fresh L$s from the LindeX).

So yeah: who knows? All I know is that if/when the sinks fail, it'll be all over for Second Life.

[ChinRey]

48 minutes ago, Fionalein said:

Is that real or even skewed as people stopped reviewing?

It's still skewed by the relatively large number of obviously biased reviews the first few days but it seems to be slowly adjusting.

[ChinRey]

14 hours ago, Qie Niangao said:

Yeah, I gave up guessing about this. If there's a known target exchange rate, any private seller with patience will try to sell at that rate, so orders will pile up there until they're so deep that a seller knows they'll wait too long to clear, and resign themselves to bidding one L$ more per US$.

Yes but the orders never pile up. There are no seasonal fluctuations in the volume avaliable at the "base rate" and when it changes, it does so in a very orderly way with no short time fluctuations before it stabilizes at a new level.

 

14 hours ago, Qie Niangao said:

Or there may be a very different LindeX than there was when we last had metrics.

I think it is, yes.

 

14 hours ago, Qie Niangao said:

So yeah: who knows? All I know is that if/when the sinks fail, it'll be all over for Second Life.

It would be interesting to know how big those sinks are then.

We can estimate two of them fairly accurately. LindeX transaction fees add up to about 4,000,000 US dollars a year, regular MP fees about 3,000,000.

The significance of the various other fees is unknown but they probably don't add up to that much, I'd be surprised if it's more than 500,000 USD a year.

There are other minor sinks, LL still sell a little bit of content for L$, money may be accidentally transferred to non-existing accounts etc., etc. Those probably don't add up to much.

But there is one sink that is totally unknown: Lindens that vanish into inactive and cancelled accounts. The only thing we can be sure of, is that it's huge - it's almost certainly the biggest sink and it may well dwarf all the others combined.

It seems safe to say that the sinks drain no less than 10,000,000 USD worth of Lindens from the market every year. Based on the total transaction volume on LindEx, it's unlikely to be higher than 60,000,000.

---

New Lindens are added to the market in three ways, through prizes at the games, through premium member stipends and through LindEx.

I think we can all agree that the game prize volume is insignificant in this context. Premium member stipends should amount to about 3,000,000 USD a year, most of this go straight into the inactive accounts sink.

---

To maintain a relatively steady volume, Linden Lab has to inject several millions USD worth of L$ into LindEx every year. It may amount to more than 50,000,000 although that is highly unlikely. My best guesstimate from these deductions is somewhere between 20,000,000 and 40,000,000 and that is also fairly conistent with what is needed to keep the exchange rate as stable as it is.

Edited January 6, 2019 by ChinRey