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Secondlife declining player base

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56 minutes ago, Penny Patton said:

Sure, and I should add that just because it doesn't tick the boxes for what I see as a successful SL-style virtual world doesn't mean it can't do just fine in that sex game niche.

In addition to all of that I wouldn't trust the debs as far as I could throw them. There is a site that you can look up avid there to determine alt.  The site takes bit coin and as 3dx has no scripting language or api it is difficult to see how that site gets all the info it does without development collusion.

The only reason the animations are better is because the avatars are so limited in how you can change thrm

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It's more successful than High Fidelity, Sansar, and Sinespace put together. About 7,500 paying users. Enough to make it go, not enough to make it great.

The technology isn't bad. It's using Unity 5, with physically based rendering running in multiple threads in the viewer. If we had that in SL, SL would look much better. They have some nice building and UI features from which SL could learn. Yes, it's a sex sim. Not a clueless sex sim, though. There's some good engineering.

Being a vehicle builder, I look at that sit target system and think "How could that be extended to vehicles". Suppose you could add a "car" behavior outline to a static vehicle model, get the wheels to line up, get the seats to line up, and drive away. If you need a door, you'd drag a door behavior to a static door, align the hinge, and you'd have a door. They have a "snap to" magnet option in their World Editor, so you can align objects, a basic capability SL lacks.

Simple in-world building plus external parametric building (resize stairs, get more steps, not bigger ones) could be a powerful and usable combination. SineSpace has some of that. Many users complain that building in SL is too hard. The usual answer is "suck it up and learn to use Blender". That doesn't really scale.

Maybe LL should buy 3DXchat.

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Posted (edited)

I'm trying to take it easy on Sansar, really only because Inara Pey is taking it kinda seriously -- somewhat offsetting the fact Drax takes it very seriously and everything my lyin' eyes tell me. [EDIT: I meant to use this URL: https://modemworld.me/2019/07/31/sansar-at-two-years-observations-and-thoughts/ ]

What do I know? For one thing, I haven't been to the place in ages. Maybe there's magic in the mix somewhere.

When SL was aborning, were the components all that state of the art? well, commerce maybe, but wasn't the real magic in having the audacity to strap it all together?

Is the industry beyond the audacity stage? (should it be?)

 

Edited by Qie Niangao
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On 7/31/2019 at 11:34 PM, Kurshie Muromachi said:

Well, Tim Sweeney of Epic Games has this vision of an "Open Metaverse" planned out. They want to use open protocols, formats and standards and not a closed system where companies have a lot of power over things. Perhaps this open system will allow for big-world scenarios. I guess will see how that turns out. Who knows, it may turn out to be serious competition for LL. Being open sounds promising. They are considering blockchain which I think I've seen some concerns over. I dunno. We'll see. Perhaps in 3 - 6 years? *shrugs* Epic has about 1200 employees worldwide with an arsenal of experienced developers and contents creators and a mass pool of money.

More information on Tim Sweeney's vision of the metaverse is here (he gave a presentation at SIGGRAPH, the annual computer graphics conference in Los Angeles):

https://ryanschultz.com/2019/07/30/is-the-metaverse-going-to-look-like-fortnite-kent-bye-reports-on-tim-sweeneys-siggraph-talk/

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Posted (edited)

Interesting conversation re: 3DX Chat. Here's my take on 3DX Chat, based on a temporary free trial I installed just to check it out about a year ago:

https://ryanschultz.com/2018/10/18/3dx-chat-a-brief-introduction/

(Note: this link is safe for work.)

Executive summary: it's not bad, but it really can't compete with everything SL currently has to offer in my opinion. I am glad, however, to hear that some people are using 3DX Chat for more than just sex. And you're right: Sansar, High Fidelity and Sinespace combined don't have as many people as 3DX Chat apparently does. 

Edited by Vanity Fair

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5 hours ago, animats said:

Maybe LL should buy 3DXchat.

Why? They're scared to death of directly catering to or incentivizing adult content.

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Posted (edited)

And (at the risk of sounding like a broken record) Second Life CANNOT be made to support virtual reality without making fundamental changes to the platform that would break it. One of the problems that Linden Lab has with SL is that they don't want to break user's existing content if they can help it. That means that they will never be able to attain the 90 frames per second needed to avoid nausea in a VR headset. THIS is why they decided to launch a new product that is VR-compatible, Sansar (which also supports desktop users quite nicely). 

There's no guarantee that Linden Lab will have the same success with Sansar as they did with Second Life. However, it is still way, WAAAY too early to write Sansar off. I have noticed a definite uptick in the number of newcomers lately. It's not anywhere near SL levels of course, but they're off to a good, promising start. According to a recent article in Forbes magazine, they had over 1,000 people in Sansar attending all or part of the Monstercat launch concert recently (albeit broadcast across multiple instances to handle the avatar load). That's significant.

More info here: https://ryanschultz.com/2019/07/28/more-and-more-people-are-visiting-sansar-and-i-couldnt-be-happier/

Edited by Vanity Fair
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3 hours ago, Vanity Fair said:

More information on Tim Sweeney's vision of the metaverse is here (he gave a presentation at SIGGRAPH, the annual computer graphics conference in Los Angeles):

https://ryanschultz.com/2019/07/30/is-the-metaverse-going-to-look-like-fortnite-kent-bye-reports-on-tim-sweeneys-siggraph-talk/

Interesting. He has a SL/Metaverse type vision.

"Need virtual worlds to scale beyond a 200 players on a shard. Need 1 shared world w EVERYONE. Needs a programming environment to scale to unlimited sized. Not single thread C++. Large-scale concurrency w safe transactions that are consistent, durable, isolated."

"A viable Metaverse is going to need a successful economy so that creators can make a living, which is absolutely essential. We need a rich set of different economic models. The app store with microtransactions is merely one model. Ad models are dysfunctional."

So he gets both the technology and the business model.

He also has a personal net worth of $7.2 billion, heads the company that owns Fortnite and Unreal Engine, and got 10 million people online watching an event in Fortnite. So if he wants to do this, he has the tools.

(Then again, Zuckerberg made Facebook come out with Facebook Spaces, which is generally agreed to be a dud.)

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22 hours ago, animats said:

Interesting. He [Tim Sweeney] has a SL/Metaverse type vision.

"Need virtual worlds to scale beyond a 200 players on a shard. Need 1 shared world w EVERYONE. Needs a programming environment to scale to unlimited sized. Not single thread C++. Large-scale concurrency w safe transactions that are consistent, durable, isolated."

 

it always comes back to how many avatars can fit in a shard/region without killing the client viewers

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2 hours ago, Mollymews said:

it always comes back to how many avatars can fit in a shard/region without killing the client viewers

There are ways to scale that up. It works better if you control the environment. Suppose that, in a game, you wanted to show 50,000 people in a stadium. You could render each section of the stadium on a server, and feed the distant sections to each viewer as video. Only the nearest section or two would render locally. It's a form of impostor generation.

Here's a tech demo of a 30,000 person crowd, from 11 years ago.

This was real-time rendered on a modest PC by today's standards. Yes, they all have the same clothes. Today we have more GPU memory.

Making this work in a more general environment like Second Life's is harder, but not fundamentally impossible.

SL doesn't use impostors enough. I've written on this before. It's just way too much for SL's undersized dev team to tackle.

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Posted (edited)

I read 'August 1', so my first reaction was: oh, the ressurection of a dead horse. But then I read '2018', and I was like: oh, a pile of horse bones bleached in the sun.

In other news: here's a map of 20 First Life countries that have a declining player base:

2560px-Population_decline_2010_-_2015.thumb.jpg.80e65934822404f96c687717e206cf19.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate

Edited by Arduenn Schwartzman
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4 hours ago, animats said:

There are ways to scale that up.

Here's a tech demo of a 30,000 person crowd, from 11 years ago.

This was real-time rendered on a modest PC by today's standards. Yes, they all have the same clothes. Today we have more GPU memory.

Making this work in a more general environment like Second Life's is harder, but not fundamentally impossible.

 

is fundamentally limited to the processing capabilities of the target viewer platform/hardware, yes

there are lots of demos of 1000s of clones milling about. Is pretty to trivial to get 1000+ clones running on even a local install of OpenSim.  Clone milling can be  interesting from a server dev pov but are uninteresting to users from a player pov

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Arduenn Schwartzman said:

I read 'August 1', so my first reaction was: oh, the ressurection of a dead horse. But then I read '2018', and I was like: oh, a pile of horse bones bleached in the sun.

In other news: here's a map of 20 First Life countries that have a declining player base:

Interesting but the player base for First Life as a whole is growing fast. Despite all the indications of the opposite, they must be doing something right there.

Why isn't Russia on the list btw? Its player base has been declining every years since 2011, did they get a boost in 2010?

Edited by ChinRey
Typos

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