Chinami1000

These numbers have got to be wrong

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13 hours ago, ChinRey said:

It isn't. The "What's Hot" list in the destination guide was made several years ago and never been updated, they just rotate the lsit ocne or twice a day.

But you do have an interesting point there. Those places used to be completely empty. But a few months ago we had a dsicussion about it on this forum. Shortly afterwards, all the "hot" places suddenly showed up with a steady 20-give-or-take-one-or-two. It's the same old places, nothing's changed there, but suddenly all of them have the same quite high and unbelievably stable visit count.

 

I've visited a couple of the places on the list and found the population there to be in-line with the numbers. What looks like is happening is that there is a "basket" of possible "What's Hot" regions and they're polled as to their populations when someone is logging in. A population of 25 allows them to be listed. This is a good compromise number between being empty and being overloaded. It's very possible that the system won't select that region to be listed if the population is higher than 25 to avoid adding too much load to the system. There are very definitely regions that are listed at some times and not at others though.

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50000 people spread out over 23000 regions, so a region with 20 is way above average. 50 million users, but of course that is 50 million accounts, many of which are altos.

 

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2 hours ago, Chinami1000 said:

listen, it's not difficult to download a viewer that someone says is good to download.  If I'm doing well enough that you're convinced I've been playing since 2009 I'm flattered.

Fair enough. It's not important anyway but as you've noticed, people will use such things as an excuse to go for the messenger rather than the message. ;)

If we can sum this mess up so far:

  • There may well be 50 million registered SL accounts by now but most of them are old ones that haven't logged on for years so that number is completely meaningless.
  • 50,000 accounts logged on every day sounds worryingly low. Concurrency (how many accounts are logged simultaneously) varies between around 30,000 to a bit more than 40,000. If the total number of log-ons during a day is as low as 50,000, the vast majority of them must last for hours and hours and many probably 24/7. That means either afk people or bots of course.
  • 59 minutes ago, Theresa Tennyson said:

    What looks like is happening is that there is a "basket" of possible "What's Hot" regions and they're polled as to their populations when someone is logging in. A population of 25 allows them to be listed.

    Yes, that's what I eventually figured out too. So if your place is lucky enough to be in the "possibly hot" basket, always make sure there are 20-25 avatars there, never more, never fewer.

  • If you as a newcomer want to do any kind of SL business for money, not just for fun, you'll need to find a niche that nobody else has thought of, that lots of people are interested in and that the old established names can't easily grab from your hand the moment they notice. The old-timers will always have the advantage on you and when it comes to real estate, even the biggest, strongest and most well established businesses are scaling down now.

Oh, and don't take anybody's word for what is the best viewer. All viewers have their pros and cons and all viewers have their congregation of fanatic followers who are absolutely convinced that their choice is the one and only true one.

-------

Edit, I couldn't help it, I just had to do some calculations with those 50,000 log-ons a day and 30,000-40,000 concurrency figures. (Yes, I'm a mathoholic.)

A very, very simplified model just to illustrate. Let's assume

  • All in all there are 50,000 avatars logged on during a 24 hour period
  • At any given time during those 24 hours 35,000 of them are logged on
  • To keep it simple, we only operate with two kinds of avatars in this model:
    • One kind of avatar is logged on for one hour during the 24 hour period. Let's call that avatar type ... humans
    • The other kind is logged on during the entire 24 hour period. Let's call them ... bots perhaps?

If I did the math right that'll give us 34,348 bots and 652 humans (figures rounded off to the nearest integer) logged on simultaneously.

Or to put it another way: If there are a total of 50,000 avatars logged on during the day and the average concurrency is 35,000, the average avatar will have to stay logged on for slightly less than 17 hours.

But this is just nonsense of course. We do not have any actual data how many accounts are logged on during a day - that was jsut a misunderstanding.

Edited by ChinRey
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19 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

I don't think I've ever been logged into SL for four hours straight, let alone average that. My butt would get sore and I'd prolly wet myself (all that root beer, ya know).

Word id that you only stay logged in long enough to toast your marshmallows.

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8 hours ago, Talligurl said:

50000 people spread out over 23000 regions, so a region with 20 is way above average. 50 million users, but of course that is 50 million accounts, many of which are altos.

 

And many of which came, saw, and went away. I suspect that the vast majority of the 50 million accounts did that.

Edited by Phil Deakins

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4 hours ago, Gadget Portal said:

It's the bots.

Freakin' bots...

The numbers are padded, by alts and bots!

Well, in my immediate area, there are usually a few avatars that log in alone, and stay put for many hours every day. Then there are 5 definite bots that walk around the sim all day. They're mine, of course, so I can't be critical of them. And, of course, there's me, and I'm not a bot, but I'm afk for hours at a time. On the whole, this is a thriving and lively area of Second Life :D

Edited by Phil Deakins
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2 hours ago, Phil Deakins said:

Well, in my immediate area, there are usually a few avatars that log in alone, and stay put for many hours every day. Then there are 5 definite bots that walk around the sim all day. They're mine, of course, so I can't be critical of them. And, of course, there's me, and I'm not a bot, but I'm afk for hours at a time. On the whole, this is a thriving and lively area of Second Life :D

You padder, you. 

My bots don't walk around. Usually.

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1 hour ago, Gadget Portal said:

You padder, you. 

Thank you :D

 

1 hour ago, Gadget Portal said:

My bots don't walk around. Usually.

One of mine doesn't, but I didn't bother with details about each of them. He stands guard at the entrance, but he does go for a leak once in a while. The other 4 take rest breaks too after patroling the sim.

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Might be useful to throw in the observation that a lot of communication in SL happens while people's avatars are doing different things in different places and talking through groups or IM. I made no lasting friendships going to hang-out places (though I know others who have) but lots through groups and several through my store.

Which leads on to another observation. The friendships that began because of my shop didn't happen while I was standing around. They all began with people who took the time to drop me an IM, which led to a conversation around shared interests, which led to a friendship request, which led to many more conversations. None of these friendships would have started if they'd had to rely on face-to-face real time introductions.

In that way, SL can be more like an internet forum than RL. So it's probably best to not think about it in terms of who's in a particular location at a particular time, but how you can make contact with people who share your interests.

 

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*Runs in the room,grabbing the mic*

Sign ups used to be 20,000 a day..

*Drops the mic,runs out of the room*

Run Ceka, run!!

VHrycP2.gif

 

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http://www.kzero.co.uk/blog/second-life-usage-per-active-resident/

 I am going to attempt to do some math here, which historically has not been successful for me. But: The average time spent inworld per account per month is  about 42 hours. That's about a little under an hour and a half per day, every day.  There are 16 hour and a halfs in a day.  If on average 40,000 people logged in every hour and a half, that would be 640,000 total for a day.

OR WOULD IT???

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14 hours ago, Perrie Juran said:

Word is that you only stay logged in long enough to toast your marshmallows.

This is actually pretty close to the truth. During the last days of actually having a home in SL, I often logged in only to cleanse someone in my fireplace.

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1 hour ago, Bitsy Buccaneer said:

Might be useful to throw in the observation that a lot of communication in SL happens while people's avatars are doing different things in different places and talking through groups or IM. I made no lasting friendships going to hang-out places (though I know others who have) but lots through groups and several through my store.

Which leads on to another observation. The friendships that began because of my shop didn't happen while I was standing around. They all began with people who took the time to drop me an IM, which led to a conversation around shared interests, which led to a friendship request, which led to many more conversations. None of these friendships would have started if they'd had to rely on face-to-face real time introductions.

In that way, SL can be more like an internet forum than RL. So it's probably best to not think about it in terms of who's in a particular location at a particular time, but how you can make contact with people who share your interests.

This is how I've made and maintained friendships in SL over the years. When I am in-world, I'm usually at "The Far Away" or a sandbox, where I chat up my in-world friends while posing myself for insertion into other people's snapshots. It's meta, really. I'm double virtual.

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1 hour ago, Ceka Cianci said:

*Runs in the room,grabbing the mic*

Sign ups used to be 20,000 a day..

*Drops the mic,runs out of the room*

Run Ceka, run!!

VHrycP2.gif

 

Yep and some people bragged about that. I always understood it to mean (since concurrency was falling) that LL was alienating more than 20,000 people a day. It's not a good sign when your retention rate is negative. The gulf between the hype and reality of VR more-or-less guarantees disillusion, but negative is still negative. If you can't keep customers, don't attract them.

Edited by Madelaine McMasters
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2 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

This is how I've made and maintained friendships in SL over the years. When I am in-world, I'm usually at "The Far Away" or a sandbox, where I chat up my in-world friends while posing myself for insertion into other people's snapshots. It's meta, really. I'm double virtual.

This. You are truly the Photo Bomb Priestess of SL. I swear I think some people stage their photos just to tempt you to *cough* improve them.

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18 minutes ago, Dillon Levenque said:

I swear I think some people stage their photos just to tempt you to *cough* improve them.

Oh, I know this happens. I'm easily manipulated and some people can't resist.

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1 hour ago, Dillon Levenque said:

 I swear I think some people stage their photos just to tempt you to *cough* improve them.

No doubt there - a few have actually admitted doing so in the various "look at me" threads that we have.

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8 minutes ago, LittleMe Jewell said:

No doubt there - a few have actually admitted doing so in the various "look at me" threads that we have.

And most of my modifications don't have me in them. I crave attention like everyone else, but posting "look at me" snapshots deprives me of the ability to claim it ain't so.

ETA: It's also the case that I've an old system avi I don't care to remake. I don't dislike Maddy's look, but she can't compete with the rest of you in vanity shots.

Edited by Madelaine McMasters

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10 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

And most of my modifications don't have me in them. I crave attention like everyone else, but posting "look at me" snapshots deprives me of the ability to claim it ain't so.

ETA: It's also the case that I've an old system avi I don't care to remake. I don't dislike Maddy's look, but she can't compete with the rest of you in vanity shots.

Oh, but she can, and has...in her own way :D 

There's a lot of benefit to being unique, others being able to expect the unexpected and get even more unexpected than they'd expected they'd expect, is just one of them...

or something like that anyway ;) 

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On 9/16/2017 at 8:25 PM, Chinami1000 said:

I'm new and found SL because I heard about Sansar. 

This world is amazing and some of these properties are so well done.  I've got a mind for business - like a serial entrepreneur and speculator, so I'm thinking "a builder probably makes some money".  So I look up the population and users and I see the Dwell On It blog. 

And it says things like there are 50,000,000 users and 50,000 logging in each day, 15,000 joining every day.

But I go on the Destinations guide and look at "hot", which I presume are the places with the most users at the moment.... and they have 20 people.  Most everywhere I go has nobody.  Empty clubs.  Empty shopping stores. 

 

What am I missing here?

That blog isn't updated anymore on SL issues I don't think.

I have a script that shows concurrency usually around 35,000-50,000 and yes, they spread out quite a bit.

If you zoom out to the highest level of the map overview, you'll see piles of green dots and then you can go investigate as to whether they are bots or not. A lot of them are traffic infusion bots but there are people, too.

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17 hours ago, Pamela Galli said:

http://www.kzero.co.uk/blog/second-life-usage-per-active-resident/

 I am going to attempt to do some math here, which historically has not been successful for me. But: The average time spent inworld per account per month is  about 42 hours. That's about a little under an hour and a half per day, every day.  There are 16 hour and a halfs in a day.  If on average 40,000 people logged in every hour and a half, that would be 640,000 total for a day.

OR WOULD IT???

Yes but no. Your calculation stipulates that everybody log on to SL every day.  It does make more sense if we apply it to a longer time span though - like 30 days. So if the average concurrency is 40,000 accounts logged on and an average active account is logged on for 1.5 hours a day on average, the number of active accounts is 640,000.

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21 hours ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Yep and some people bragged about that. I always understood it to mean (since concurrency was falling) that LL was alienating more than 20,000 people a day. It's not a good sign when your retention rate is negative. The gulf between the hype and reality of VR more-or-less guarantees disillusion, but negative is still negative. If you can't keep customers, don't attract them.

Last I remember hearing they were 20,000 sign ups a day was back in 2007..I don't know how long it stayed at that many..

They had to be keeping some of them,because logins at times were in the 90k's for a little bit..

The two biggest drop offs I remember was when gambling went away and I wanna say,Zindra and adding that 3rd rating to the lands..Which after that you had the teen grid merge also which did a little bit..

2009 seemed like when SL peaked pretty  much.

 

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*ahem* There are those of us who RARELY log into SL - but still pay premium, thus supporting the platform! *pats self on back*

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1 hour ago, Ceka Cianci said:

Last I remember hearing they were 20,000 sign ups a day was back in 2007..I don't know how long it stayed at that many..

They had to be keeping some of them,because logins at times were in the 90k's for a little bit..

The two biggest drop offs I remember was when gambling went away and I wanna say,Zindra and adding that 3rd rating to the lands..Which after that you had the teen grid merge also which did a little bit..

2009 seemed like when SL peaked pretty  much.

 

Also the traffic bot ban.

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