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Harvey projected to make land fall tonight


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Quinn, I hope you are safe.

Hurricane Harvey is expected to make land in 12 to 16 hours or so.  After that the predictions are that it will linger on the Texas Gulf coast  for days.  Post land fall flooding going to be bad.

In other news, a 3.1 magnitude earth quake was recorded this morning just outside of Dallas.

 

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They were saying it's the first land fall hurricane since 2005..

Also was hearing the guy from fema say,it didn't seem like people were taking it as serious as they should there.. I'm just hoping he is mistaken..

It was gaining power last I heard.. I'm crossing my fingers tight for them.

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3 minutes ago, Ceka Cianci said:

Also was hearing the guy from fema say,it didn't seem like people were taking it as serious as they should there.

They have evacuated all the islands from Brownsville to Houston. Galveston has had several Total Party Wipes in its history so I hope they are taking the evacuation seriously.  Those islands also make a nice shield for the mainland which will be spared the force of the storm surge.  I live on the dessert side of the state so I wouldn't have a clue how to prepare for the flooding that is about to happen.

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7 hours ago, Ceka Cianci said:

Also was hearing the guy from fema say,it didn't seem like people were taking it as serious as they should there.. I'm just hoping he is mistaken..

Sadly, this is an accurate statement, a lot of people in the area aren't taking it as seriously as they should :(

We have a lot of family and friends in the areas directly in the path. Some have been evacuated, others are holing up and riding it out, writing their social security numbers, phone numbers, family and friends' names on their person :( 

If I were someone that believed prayer did any amount of good, I wouldn't be leaving my knees until it was all over and done with.  For now, I hope that common sense prevails, swiftly. The warnings are beyond dire at this point, he's preparing to make landfall as I type, with the eye wall reaching landfall right about now.  Conditions were already bad as the winds and rain came thrashing in. It's expected that he will hit a halt once he hits landfall, which will only worsen everything. For many people deciding to hang back, it's already too late. 

Sigh.....I'd be lying if I said I wasn't angry at *everyone* that ignores these warnings.  This is going to be a disaster, no ifs ands or buts about it. 

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31 minutes ago, Tari Landar said:

Sadly, this is an accurate statement, a lot of people in the area aren't taking it as seriously as they should :(

We have a lot of family and friends in the areas directly in the path. Some have been evacuated, others are holing up and riding it out, writing their social security numbers, phone numbers, family and friends' names on their person :( 

If I were someone that believed prayer did any amount of good, I wouldn't be leaving my knees until it was all over and done with.  For now, I hope that common sense prevails, swiftly. The warnings are beyond dire at this point, he's preparing to make landfall as I type, with the eye wall reaching landfall right about now.  Conditions were already bad as the winds and rain came thrashing in. It's expected that he will hit a halt once he hits landfall, which will only worsen everything. For many people deciding to hang back, it's already too late. 

Sigh.....I'd be lying if I said I wasn't angry at *everyone* that ignores these warnings.  This is going to be a disaster, no ifs ands or buts about it. 

Oh, Tari, this must have you so stressed out. (Hugs you tight) 

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21 minutes ago, Aislin Ceawlin said:

Oh, Tari, this must have you so stressed out. (Hugs you tight) 

I'm mad at the ones who are only adults simply being stupid. But, I am so beyond angry at the FAMILIES choosing to subject their children to this level of idiocy.  The whole names/numbers on the person thing is for rescue/recovery purposes, and they're making a game of it :( 

Most of the people we know that are directly in the path are already without power(and have been for some time), though a few of them can still manage getting cell service, the rest of them we have not heard from in a while. The ones we know not in the direct path, but still in harm's way, only a few are without power, right now, I expect that to change within an hour or two, at most. It's so maddening, I can't say what I'd like to say, the censor will catch me. I don't know how many times I have said "this isn't an effing tornado" over the last couple of days. If the hurricane itself doesn't harm them, the flooding very well may. I don't think most of the people choosing not to evacuate actually realize the severity, let alone how long this is going to last even after the hurricane itself dissipates. They're projecting flooding into mid-week at the rate this is going. Of course, projections could be wrong, but it really only takes an hour or less for flooding to become tragic. 

Thankfully, we do have some family and friends that have put their lives and the lives of their children above that of their property, and they are safely out of harm's way. In fact two of the families are driving their way up here right now, one being a few hours out from here and the other is a few hours behind them.  Others have gone to either evacuation areas(not sure which) or have gone to other friends/family temporarily. I suspect that, should they get to return to the areas in weeks'/months time, there won't be much of anything left. 

 

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1 hour ago, Tari Landar said:

The whole names/numbers on the person thing is for rescue/recovery purposes, and they're making a game of it

It was the Mayor of Port Aransas making a point to the people there that they must leave or realize that if they stay they will die.  It wasn't intended to be a game.

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31 minutes ago, Rhonda Huntress said:

It was the Mayor of Port Aransas making a point to the people there that they must leave or realize that if they stay they will die.  It wasn't intended to be a game.

I know...and yet...people are doing precisely that. People I love, people I care about, and people I...yeah I can't express the amount of anger I have right now. It's heartbreaking, to say the least, to know that the phone call you made to someone, while yelling at them for staying put and asking them what they have there with them in terms of emergency gear, will likely be the last phone call you ever have...all because of sheer stupidity. 

Every single organization, every news outlet, every elected official, every office, all law enforcement, they have been saying this for days. They have been warning people, for days that this is going to be devastating, likely worse than Katrina-just from the flooding standpoint alone, the damage from the winds is a whole different story. It was already beyond bad yesterday. It is now so much worse, and this is just the beginning. No one we know that is still in the area has power, or cell service now. There is no way to get them help. There is no way to get them out. 

I am not looking forward to receiving a call about recovery. I am certain rescue will be off the table for at least a few of the families being inundated right this very second, they already had damage due to winds and rain earlier today(well, now yesterday, since it's after 1 am here). Why people play chicken with mother nature, I will never understand, especially when they're putting others' lives on the line while doing it. We have all the technology and knowledge in the world available to us, not like other areas of the world who, when natural disasters strike, have no warning, no escape, no chance.  I'm just going to sit here and be angry for a while.  

One positive thing, however, I just learned a little bit ago when we got a call from the rest stop.... an uncle, against his wife's wishes, decided to send their kids with one of our cousins(one of the families headed here now), instead of making them stay. They're 3 and 4, I am grateful he had at least one moment of sanity. Not much of a silver lining, but I guess we'll take anything at this point. 

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When children are very little and don't know better, you tell them "don't touch that, it's hot" .. and then they touch it anyway. But they are children and they learn better.

WTF are people who live on the coasts and have seen the disasters Mother Nature wreaks doing acting like dumb children that do not learn from being burnt horribly?

There just isn't enough shake in the world to shake my head enough to get over this ... *sigh*

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1 hour ago, Darrius Gothly said:

There just isn't enough shake in the world to shake my head enough to get over this ... *sigh*

There really isn't, and as bad of a person as it makes me sound(yes, I don't need msgs about it folks, I realize being angry just makes me sound like a jackass), my anger is just stewing. It's very hard to wrap my mind around the thoughts running through the heads of anyone that chose to stay. Knowing what we know, of course. Mother nature is not a force to be challenged. 

I am so grateful we have loved ones and friends that made it to safety, and that all of those who did leave when told, are now all accounted for. I am grateful the littles are safe and sound in a nice warm bed right now. I'm also grateful there are TONS of people that did their best to get as many people out of harm's way as they could-and are still trying to do that now.  I'm trying so hard to focus on those things. I can't help but watch every possible live coverage I can find. There is always that little bit of hope, somewhere in there, even if it's buried pretty deep, that Harvey will let up sooner than expected, he is being rather unpredictable at the moment. 

My thoughts go out to all those that were not evacuated in time, but were trying to get to safety, as there are many, as well as their loved ones all around the world, and those that had to stay behind to help in rescue/recovery. My thoughts also go to those who did make it out in time and will likely have little to nothing to go back to,  with everyone down there both now and in the coming days to help ease the burdens of others, save people that need saving, and do whatever they can to help people and areas affected. I may not believe in prayer, but I do believe in thinking/sending positive thoughts towards others. 

I should probably shut up on this topic now too, or I probably never will, lol. 

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4 hours ago, Tari Landar said:

There really isn't, and as bad of a person as it makes me sound(yes, I don't need msgs about it folks, I realize being angry just makes me sound like a jackass), my anger is just stewing. It's very hard to wrap my mind around the thoughts running through the heads of anyone that chose to stay. Knowing what we know, of course. Mother nature is not a force to be challenged.

The dance team of ignorance and arrogance that's angering you performs everywhere. There's also this...

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2017/08/24/joey-bada-cancels-concerts-after-bragging-about-gazing-at-eclipse-without-glasses.html

And the parents who deny their children vaccinations or medical treatment.

I could go on (and on and on and on), but I'd end up ahead of you on the road to Jackassville, where I'd rather view your behind through the windshield than your front through the rear view mirror.

Rant on, Tari.

 

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21 minutes ago, Pamela Galli said:

Angering, appalling, and astonishing.

Well Pam, I can only maintain astonishment for a short while. This stuff happens all the time. It's the Dunning-Kruger effect. I see it everywhere, and Snugs sees it in me. I have wondered if we in the USA grow a special variety of proud ignorance, fertilized by the rugged individual ethos we prize so dearly, but I don't think we've cornered the market.

Unfortunately, the Dunning-Kruger effect is positive feedback of the worst kind. Positive feedback loops often lock up or oscillate (pardon the engineer in me, but positive feedback doesn't care if it's destabilizing a circuit or a society).

The more ignorant we are of how the world works, the more confident we are we're right and the less motivated we are to learn. As the body of knowledge available to us increases, we grow relatively more ignorant and less motivated.

Those of us who have the will to dig deeply into things discover just how much we don't know and work to learn it. We're comfortable with know knowing, but uncomfortable with not learning. As we avail ourselves of our increasing body of knowledge, we feel relatively more ignorant and more motivated.

The difference between growing more ignorant and feeling more ignorant is enormous and increasing.

Snugs would agree with me that one of us is in each of the royal "we" camps I just described. She would disagree on which camp claims each of us. And that's because she's not immune to the Dunning-Kruger effect either.

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12 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

Well Pam, I can only maintain astonishment for a short while. This stuff happens all the time. It's the Dunning-Kruger effect. I see it everywhere, and Snugs sees it in me. I have wondered if we in the USA grow a special variety of proud ignorance, fertilized by the rugged individual ethos we prize so dearly, but I don't think we've cornered the market.

Unfortunately, the Dunning-Kruger effect is positive feedback of the worst kind. Positive feedback loops often lock up or oscillate (pardon the engineer in me, but positive feedback doesn't care if it's destabilizing a circuit or a society).

The more ignorant we are of how the world works, the more confident we are we're right and the less motivated we are to learn. As the body of knowledge available to us increases, we grow relatively more ignorant and less motivated.

Those of us who have the will to dig deeply into things discover just how much we don't know and work to learn it. We're comfortable with know knowing, but uncomfortable with not learning. As we avail ourselves of our increasing body of knowledge, we feel relatively more ignorant and more motivated.

The difference between growing more ignorant and feeling more ignorant is enormous and increasing.

Snugs would agree with me that one of us is in each of the royal "we" camps I just described. She would disagree on which camp claims each of us. And that's because she's not immune to the Dunning-Kruger effect either.

I guess SL should have prepared me, since I had never before met so many thusly affected in RL. Now I see I have lived in a bubble.

My astonishment has evolved into a feeling of having been hit on the head with a large mallet.

 

 

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Lets not forget that sometimes people just don't have the money to pick up and leave..A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck and day by day..

It's hard to pick up and leave when you can't put gas in the car..The harsh reality is they don't stop charging for things when it's time to get up and go..

Some people let their ego get in the way and think they are bigger than a storm,or get their value of things mixed up until it's bearing down on them..

Some just can't afford the luxury of those options and are stuck knowing they have no choice but to plan for the worst and hope for the best..

The real reality is,it's not always someone just being ignorant,but wishing they could afford to be,because they would have left already.

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16 minutes ago, Ceka Cianci said:

Lets not forget that sometimes people just don't have the money to pick up and leave..A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck and day by day..

It's hard to pick up and leave when you can't put gas in the car..The harsh reality is they don't stop charging for things when it's time to get up and go..

Some people let their ego get in the way and think they are bigger than a storm,or get their value of things mixed up until it's bearing down on them..

Some just can't afford the luxury of those options and are stuck knowing they have no choice but to plan for the worst and hope for the best..

The real reality is,it's not always someone just being ignorant,but wishing they could afford to be,because they would have left already.

You're quite right, Ceka. There are also people who, knowing full well the peril ahead, will not budge. They're not ignorant, they're not so poor they can't escape (there are free shelters and busses to move people who are), but they have reasons to stay that just won't make sense to the rest of us. People have lost their lives saving pets. That's tragic, but I understand why it happens and I won't condemn the choice.

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2 minutes ago, Madelaine McMasters said:

You're quite right, Ceka. There are also people who, knowing full well the peril ahead, will not budge. They're not ignorant, they're not so poor they can't escape (there are free shelters and busses to move people who are), but they have reasons to stay that just won't make sense to the rest of us. People have lost their lives saving pets. That's tragic, but I understand why it happens and I won't condemn the choice.

My father went down to Myrtle Beach SC to help out after hurricane Hugo hit..I was too little to remember any of it really..

He has a lot of pictures from back then.. That storm,a lot of people went inward  to towns like Charleston and got hit just as hard a winds as the beach..

As soon as he hit the SC line he was taking pictures..His words,Hugo ate that state..

He spent two weeks down there...He said at first you had to really keep an eye out for gators because their world was all messed up and they were wandering around..

There was sand taken a mile in from the storm surge that was like 30ft high, let alone it took some boats inland as well..The streets were burried

The water surges wreck just about everything they touch even if they don't wash things away..Because salt gets into everything..

That and any of the buildings that were on the beach,people had to tear down or move..they were giving away houses  if you paid to take them away..

The surge loosened up the sand so much when it came in that it loosened the sand and put all the houses on tilt and they were mostly all condemned..

If you lived on the other side of the street you didn't have to get rid of your house or have it moved,because the road and what was holding it up,blocked that loosening of the sand..

 

I'll tell ya what..I can't  remember if it was 2004 or 2005..The hurricane that hit Alabama,We were in Tennessee and could see the edge of that storm..It reached all the way up to us and we got a good little taste of it.. I just remember taking pictures of it..When it was coming,the sky looked exactly like one of those space ships coming down to earth in that Tom Cruise movie War of the Worlds.. It was like a fine cut  of clouds..

The most beautiful cloud formation I'd ever seen that took up the whole half of the sky for as far as I could see on either side of it..That's usually not a good thing,because that means a lot of energy is packed in there ready to unleash..

I know Alabama had to really get it if we were getting hit like we were.. That's as close to a hurricane as I ever want to get again..

All of natures things are beautiful,but hate to be in a position where I can't keep my distance if I have to..

I understand that some are limited in how they have to deal with them..But I'll never understand those that think they are bigger than nature itself.

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